I think it will end when we get a vaccine, which I hope will be by the end of this year. I think it is different this time because we have made so much progress with developing vaccines, and so it will not end like the Spanish Flu.

However, I do think it is possible to lose another hundred thousand by autumn, considering how people do not like to wear masks and social distance themselves during the summer especially.

Vaccine, treatment, testing. I think we will need all three components to be "perfected" before we can truly relax. Vaccine alone won't do it, because knuckleheads. Treatment alone won't do it because of long term affects of having Covid-19. Testing because otherwise how can we be assured we've statistically achieved 'herd immunity.'

I agree with Lars except I expect the coming death count to be much higher.

If our behavior doesn't change, why shouldn't we expect 100,000 dead every three months for the foreseeable future?

I see a lot more than 100,000 more deaths before it's over with. One reason I decided to fix up my house. Just in case, so my kids have an easier time selling it if I get it and die.

This is so upsetting. I appreciate the candor though.

I think the worst is yet to come.

COVID-19: Straight Answers from Top Epidemiologist Who Predicted the Pandemic

https://www.bluezones.com/2020/06/covid-19-straight-answers-from-top-epidemiologist-who-predicted-the-pandemic/

What Lars said. We need a vaccine and enough doses to make it available world wide. I've promised my 93 yr old mother, who has been so patient through all of this, that I will pick her up and we will be first in line ;0)

This is so upsetting.

Anne, I'm sorry. If it is any consolation, I expect that by far, the largest group of future deaths to come from the airheads, who were in possession of the information needed to be safer but chose to not mask, to not distance, to go to beaches and parties and other large groups. Barring an unexpected mutation, I believe a large number of those who use precautions to come out of this much better.

Lars beat me to it. It will end with a vaccine. I think we are seeing a slow down, but it doesn't seem to have stopped. I hope everyone doesn't become too complacent. We can somewhat go on with our lives, remember social distancing and just keep your guard up until we have a vaccine.

Annie, I share your anxiety.

Cases in central FL are increasing. This was to be expected as the state is in stage 2 of 'opening'. The hospital where my son works went to 10 COVID patients in one day from 0 for the last 2 weeks.

With all that has been going on in the past 2 weeks, the opening of commercial and public venues, I expect cases to rise as the scientists predicted. Dr Fauci's prediction of 100-200K deaths this year will likely be surpassed.

I don't see an end until a vaccine(s) is developed and the current regime in DC is ousted. Then getting EVERYONE to take it will be the next problem.

I have a feeling the worse is yet to come this Fall and Winter.

Too many people either letting their guards down because they're tired, or because they're being duped into thinking it's safe now. I picked up a curbside order at Walmart the other day and noticed perhaps 30% were wearing, or carrying masks into the store.

My "guess" is that the number of cases will go up. The only good thing being that treatment might be getting better so even with positives going up, deaths will hopefully go down.

A vaccine would be nice but... I'm not holding my breath.

Richard, you are so right about people being tired of it and letting their guard down. My in laws did so well since March. They are in their mid 70’s. Here in South Carolina, cases are going up at an alarming rate and our county is a hot spot. Now suddenly they started to go to the grocery store and want to have a cookout on Father’s Day. End of May, we did do my husband’s birthday outside, apart by our 3 households and just the cake. It totally stressed me out, doing everything as careful as possible. And wiping like a crazy woman after one had to go inside to use the bathroom. Even though family, not the same household.

wildchild2x2 - 116,000+ undeniable deaths so far and "a few will die"? "Life will go on" for the majority, but for thousands it hasn't and for many more, it won't. I really don't understand such a shoulder-shrugging attitude like that about this.

I agree treatments and vaccine will end it. Hopefully in the meantime we can manage to slow the speed that it rips through our world.

No matter how it ends it will end with far too many lost souls. I only hope there's full recovery for those who have had it.

I agree with Lars. Modern medicine is AMAZING! I believe we'll have a vaccine by August. Then it will take awhile to manufacture enough for ALL of us.

wildchild is dealing with something that's out-of-her-control. As we ALL are. Right now, self isolating, disinfecting......it's all we can do....until the experts come up with a life saving vaccine.

I believe it will end with a vaccine, but not by August, that’s for sure. But there will always be danger since we will have 50% of the population refuse to take the vaccine for one conspiracy theory or another. I hope that the virus mutates to a less virulent strain, which is usually what occurs. But I don’t think life will ever be as free and easy for me as it was pre-covid. I will always be aware of the danger and will be proactive in protecting myself.

Been listening to this person for months now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmo_1Tcdp30

You forgot #4 it will go as fast as it came with no explanation, like in Italy.

All these predictions, when this all started, the "experts" were saying that 20,000,000 would die in the US. I'm going to go about living my life with more cautions than I used to take and if I die from the damn covid then I just die. Personally, I'm just not scared to death (pun) of dying. If I have to be all hold up in the house for the rest of my life....well, what sort of life is that. And sit and watch the economy collapse around me...no thank you! I think it will end when the Democrats take office...sounds silly, but with all that I've been seeing...this is what I predict.

You forgot #4 it will go as fast as it came with no explanation, like in Italy.

It's not gone in Italy. Since the beginning of June, roughly 50 people a day have died from the virus. The numbers are low now because the country was locked down, in a much more complete way than the US, for a very long time.
Compare the curve of their graph: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases.html
to ours: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html.

the "experts" were saying that 20,000,000 would die in the US.

No, they were saying that 20 million *could* die in the US if no preventive measures were taken.

Here's a vaccine tracker from the NYTimes. I found it helpful. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

I hope everyone reads the link in beeOhio's post. We can 'guess', but Dr. Michael Osterholm's 'guesses' are informed by decades of experience with viruses.

This pandemic is not 'going away' before 60 - 70% of us have immunity. There may be a short-duration vaccine, but not within 12 months -- after which ingredients have to be resourced, then the vaccine produced and administered. US Deaths will be between 800,000 and twice that. The economic devastation will be severe. No 'other nation' has 'beaten' Covid-19 -- not Sweden, not China, not Italy. Nowhere. The virus will persist as long as it can find human hosts. It will cease to be a *pandemic* when those numbers fall.

Wild child expresses a consistent view on this matter. The fact that she disagrees with the majority here does not make her a troll. Diversity of opinions is helpful in considering arguments.

As for me, I imagine a vaccine is still over one year away. Until we have the vaccine, I cannot say I will feel terribly comfortable resuming life as before. I have a very low tolerance for this kind of risk.

My children are almost all college aged and this is devastating their social lives, which is way more important than mine.

PS And, yes, I think things will get much worse soon. Consider my children's university. They are bringing frosh and seniors back to campus in the fall. How can that possibly work? Socially distanced lecture halls and seminar rooms? Socially distanced mixers and rush and spirit events? No way.

Zalco -- Can you imagine Kindergartens? Pre-schools? Day Care? This will have profound social impact on all generations. Our DGD is nine. She's just starting to adjust; no longer coming to parents' bed at night due to virus fears. She and our DGS (15) are no longer having the same social experiences we took for granted, although I can see some social positives resulting. The world will change.

I wonder why my DM and GM *never* spoke to me about the Depression or WWI or the Flu Pandemic. I'm guessing it's because it was THAT BAD. I don't know if there's much literature that addresses the impact of all three at once. We might learn.

I think it's pathetic that poorer countries than ours, like Vietnam, have done a much better job at controlling the virus, only because the people actually give a crap about each other. Taiwan, South Korea both controlling it much better than us. It's all cultural. American's "it's all about me" thinking will kill hundreds of thousands more in our country. A lot of people think it's only the very elderly dying but a man in his early 50s died yesterday in Kentucky. A 9 month old baby girl died last week.

I just read BeeOhio's link to the Dr. Osterholm interview. It's an informative, educated piece--thank you for sharing it. It's empowering to read to learn more.

I don't have time to go through the other sources shared here, but thank you to those who have offered them. Collectively, the more we know, the better I think we'll be able to live with the reality of this virus.

I agree with you Wildchild, I'm seeing a number of reports that the death rate compared to the infection rate is dropping due to improved treatment and possible weakening of the virus.

I sincerely hope the year will end with a vaccine available to all. I don’t hold much hope that people will abide by any continued recommendations to wear masks, maintain social distancing, or crowd avoidance. School startups scare me.

This was a great article posted in the home decor conversations side. Some of you have likely already seen it. I also opened several of the embedded links which were interesting, especially the ones on the airborne route, hugs, and aerodynamics. I didn’t need a NYT subscription to open this.

Studies of airborne movement are legit. I attended several presentations while working that were along the same lines, same science, but geared toward dangerous chemical and gaseous airborne dispersions and the analysis behind it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/well/live/Coronavirus-aerosols-linsey-marr.html

While I am glad that some regions have the death rate dropping even though it is not in my area I also read a couple of reports that it is estimated number of people who have been exposed is very low. Part is because of the people staying home but part is because many of the rest have been taking enough precautions. I could not find the numbers on a free site but this is an article about Boston areas that is from early May. The articles I saw mentioned that the number was around 20% which means 80%+- have not even been exposed. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/boston-study-in-4-areas-finds-9-out-of-10-people-have-not-been-exposed-to-coronavirus/ar-BB148tHL

I recently read that a Covid vaccine may only be 40% - 50% effective. I sure hope that turns out to be incorrect and they manage a 100% effective one instead.

I just read the whole article posted by beeOhio. Wow. Thank you so much for posting that Bee. It was very informative (and scary) but I feel more informed. I always learn so much from the folks on this forum.

Anne, thank you & the others as well who acknowledged the article. I thought it was an excellent piece from a reputable source. It sometimes is really difficult to break through all the “noise.”

Kathleen thanks for that link. I Listened. Interesting... sad,

Moni