I just read in the paper that they are now hedging their bets - they think there WILL definitely be an El Nino next winter, but it might be a "mild" one - not necessarily very wet. So, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Jackie

I think rose gardeners must be as in touch with weather conditions and forecasts as my farmer ancestors! Here's hoping that California's "mild El Nino" provides enough rainfall for good rose crops and wildlife thirst quenching but not so much that other places around the world suffer drought consequences. Is that possible? Carol

I do hope you get some drought easing there. As you say, it won't solve long-term regional water problems, but it may buy you some time as you transition your garden to a less water-dependent incarnation.

I did read something in Scientific American about the chances of an El Niño year, and they mentioned that not all El Niño years bring droughty conditions, so maybe the Aussies, etc. will catch a break even if you get your rain...

Groan...I know you guys need the rain but El Nino translates into SNOW for us! Oh well, I guess I can live with the snow as long as we don't get more of those dratted polar vortexes!!!

The same El Nino is also causing predictions of drought in the Philipines and flooding in Central America. Plus, we've already experienced two large Pacific hurricanes, something rather out of the ordinary. Kim

Kim, I'm afraid "out of the ordinary" is the new norm, as are bigger, worse and more frequent weather catastrophes. I wonder when the point will come when countries can no longer absorb the billions of dollars in damage from tornadoes, hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, fires, drought, floods......

Ingrid

I've been afraid what you're saying is true for several years, Ingrid. The large insurance companies as well as major corporations are already preparing for the changes. I believe it's going to be the financial hits that make many deniers take notice and move. Kim

Move where?

There is probably no place one could move to, where the effects of intensified weather patterns won't have an impact.

Drought in California? Record-setting temperatures along the Pacific coast? Violent storms along the Eastern Seaboard? Drought and fires in Australia? Baseball-sized hail in Texas? And on, and on, ad infinitum.

The coming decades look pretty scary.

"Move" as in "take action". As things deteriorate, there ain't no where to move, unless you like sunning in the Arctic. Kim

I hope California gets rain this winter: I know you folks need it badly.
My reaction to news of global warming, aside from trying to be a little more thrifty with energy--only a little, as I have my excesses like coffee in the morning, living in the country when it's not strictly necessary for my work, and flying to the U.S. to see my family--is to fill our land with more plants. Stupid, of course: it's not a drop in the bucket of all that needs to be done, but a mere molecule of water going into the bucket, my contribution toward solving the world's climate problems. It does cool our property down as the shrubs and trees oh so slowly grow, makes me feel better, as more in control (I realize this is partly illusory) and reduces the chances of landslides. Our neighbors in the last two wet winters have experienced two major slides and many minor ones on land that they own or lease for farming. I suspect they think it's fate rather than their practices; possibly they're right, but I wonder.
I think there may be quite a lot of quiet work going on developing technologies to reduce energy use and develop renewable sources. It's very hard nowadays to live in an environmentally responsible fashion without significant discomfort, at least according to western standards. I'm not keen to embrace a spartan way of life. I'm moderately thrifty and careful as Americans and western Europeans go, but would like to continue to enjoy my morning two cups of coffee, hot showers, and at least our living room and bathroom reasonably warm in the wintertime. We need to change our habits, but technology and thought applied to the problem can make a big difference. Research and development and application possibly don't make it into the news as readily as violent environmental catastrophes which are more thrilling to read about and respond to emotionally.
Melissa
P.S. I'll state the obvious: what we as private individuals do matters very little, yet it's what we as individuals do, in our billions, that steers the course of the world. And the other big mover is economic, as Kim says. Everybody pays attention when their pocketbooks get hit.

I hope you get rain too ingrid. California is known for beautiful roses and I'd hate to see that change.

We've had a relatively cooler and wetter spring/early summer. Not as bad as last year, when we never saw the sun. The weather is never perfect. You do what you can.

I did read some heartening news. They've constructed a desalination plant along the coast that will generate enough usable water from ocean water to serve 300,000 people. That may be one solution, although not in Nebraska or Iowa.

I must admit that I take fewer showers and wear my clothes longer between washings. In a dry climate (and not being the perspiring type) that is doable and I don't think anyone can tell the difference. If millions of people did it, we could certainly notice the difference in water consumption.

Ingrid

We won't know until it happens. I remember the last time we had a long drought. The winter it ended we had a deluge in Mendocino County. The last El Nino year we measured 100 inches at Red Rose Ridge. 60 would be our "normal" average to top off our springs and fill the pond by December.
I hope you see ample rain Ingrid. I would certainly hold off to see what happens.

The El Nino in the mid to late nineties provided over forty inches in the canyon in Newhall where the old garden lived. The average was around fifteen inches. There were several weeks I couldn't walk out in to the garden because of the water sheeting off the surrounding hills. Fedtschenkoana was planted in the water gap. There was a stream running through that stand and on to the golf course for easily two months from the water seeping out of the hills. The black spot and rust were outrageous that year. Kim

It's best to take it all in stride. Hand-wringing isn't productive. The only thing that endures is Change. It's forming and clinging to expectations which is out of step with Nature and the way things are. Hang loose, know that anything can happen at any time, prepare reasonably for all sorts of anything, then sit back and appreciate that great miracle, Life, with all its diversity.

I'd like to "LIKE" that, Brent.

Yes. We'll be as ready as we can be for whatever happens. Days of rain, with three large, coated dogs, can be challenging. But far better than drought.

We'll be ready, and praying for rain to refill the aquifers, and wash the roses clean, inside and out.

I'm with Melissa - my actions are just a drop in the bucket, I know, but it makes me feel better to be responsible with my energy use, and it's just about the only thing I CAN do, realistically. I have to hope that there are many more like me making small changes.

Just looking at the statistics of the issue, if everyone who felt we do play a part in the change were to do what they could, there would be SOME change. Any improvement is worth accomplishing. Plus, the things we could do are more efficient, less wasteful and those can have an immediate, bottom line improvement on the cost of living. Even if nothing can improve the outcome, I like the knowledge that I am not wasting the utilities. I love knowing I am spending about as little as possible for electricity, gas (both natural and fuel) and water as I comfortably can. The upside is it satisfies me. The downside is when you've already tightened your belt concerning their use, mandatory conservation efforts begin hurting much faster than they do for many others. Kim

A Los Angeles Times article this morning talked about a marked increase in home systems, combining solar panels on the roof with newly-developed, more-efficient batteries that store energy. This is going to be more and more common, as the national energy grid becomes less-efficient, and such systems become more-affordable.

Not only are homeowners doing this -- so are some major corporations. Wal-Mart (like Costco, already roofed with solar panels) is installing batteries in stores and warehouses. They need to be able to keep minimal lighting in operation, along with cash-registers and refrigeration.

The day may come when this is commonplace enough that we can all afford it.

Interesting you should mention solar panels, Jeri. We are going to be doing that and California is offering some interesting incentives that makes it much less painful. The idea of losing power and not having a TV, light, the AC and our essential laptops is enough to make us do it, quite apart from saving money and conserving energy.

Ingrid

El Niño means bush fires in Australia. We had a devastating fire in 2009 near where I live, in which nearly 200 people were killed. It's still a sore point for us here, and is especially concerning for those of us, like myself, who work in the Emergency Services field.

I do hope you get some rain Ingrid, but I won't be looking forward to summer this year if El Niño hits.

Yes, muscovy, I mentioned that in my opening post, and can well imagine how dire this would be to you. It's also going to be a disaster here in the huge areas where we've had fires which will now have mudslides that will bury houses and people. There have always been extreme weather conditions, but global warming has brought a whole swarm of them, greater in ferocity and numbers than ever before. I try hard not to think of future catastrophic consequences and live day by day, but in terms of one of my greatest joys, my garden, that isn't working any more since the beauty that I treasured so much is very much diminished now.

Ingrid

"The downside is when you've already tightened your belt concerning their use, mandatory conservation efforts begin hurting much faster than they do for many others. Kim"

*** Yup. When you have already reduced your water consumption to the bare bone, and are called-on for more reductions . . . while watching neighbors spew gallon after gallon down the street . . . That hurts.

As for power consumption . . .

One of the worst power vampires in the average home is the TV, and the cable box. It really should be possible to turn all that off when not needed.

Yep, seems like you can't win :( Although I do hope that if you get some winter rain over there it will go some way to mitigating the awful bush fires you face during the summer months for the coming year.

We're lucky where I am to have enough annual rainfall to warrant the use of a 40,000 litre rain water tank - we have to house plumbed to the tank so out water bill is almost non-existent. It's just not an issue where I live (yet). But lately it's not unusual to have severe flooding up north, fires down here, and drought in the inland areas all at the same time.

Hopefully your desalination plant will be up and running soon enough to keep your garden alive.

Muscovy -- Problem here has been --- not enough rain to fill water tanks, even. Our situation is a lot like yours. Parts of the country are getting violent storms. Some areas are flooding to a terrifying degree. And the SW is parched. Even Oregon has some drought problems!

We don't REALLY want violent El Nino storms. Those would be devastating to people near burned-over hillsides. (Been there, done that!) But we sure do need a few years of normal, or slightly better-than-normal rain.

Ahh, yes, it does sound very similar to what's going on here. I can sympathise - even though water is not an issue for me, it's difficult to plan and maintain a garden when there are such dramatic shifts happening with the weather patterns. I live in an area with decent winter chill hours but our summers and autumns have been so warm lately it makes me wonder if I should bother planting cherries or European OGRs.

Sounds trivial in the greater scheme of things, I know! But I do wonder about it a lot.

Well, of course you do!

We throw our hearts into our gardens. When the weather fails you -- or out and out fights you -- you want to stand out there and shake your fist at the sky!