function I was talking about why testing. It does not make a beans worth of difference if you are testing for a bacteria or a virus when tests are used to find who has something and who does not.

The point of testing is to find the infected people and quarantine them until they're no longer infectious so they stop spreading the virus. Seems an easy concept to grasp.

Assume nothing, ghostly.

I read they were tracking COVID to map where it is headed. Maybe to head it off at the pass, send supplies and other resources, etc?

https://www.wired.com/story/survey-data-facebook-google-map-covid-19-carnegie-mellon/

After seeing that the Texas Gov. opened tattoo parlors today (among other things), I realize I can assume nothing about (some) people's priorities, Elmer.

Our state has just delayed opening of salons by another 10 days and gyms and theaters not until June 20 at the earliest.

Gov. Greg Abbott gave permission Monday to reopen practically every
facet of daily life in Texas, including bars and child daycare centers,
lifting most full lockdown orders as the state continues one of the
nation's swiftest reboots from coronavirus restrictions.

Abbott's sweeping new orders, which he described as a second phase in
Texas' reopening, allows zoos and bowling alleys to resume business and
lets restaurants and retailers expand the number of customers by the end
of the week. They also set up the return of some professional sports,
summer camps and summer school by June.

The move pushes one of the world's largest economies toward getting back
to business as usual, even while the state has seen record numbers of
daily new coronavirus cases and deaths.

It will be interesting to watch how this turns out.

TB is a bacteria. It is treatable with antibiotics. Antibiotics became common in the 40s. It is highly contagious dz. 10 million fell ill and 1.5 million died in 2018 due to TB world wide. Half a million cases drug resistant. Covid deaths are 319 thousand. And yet we are not closing down everything because of TB.

There's a reason we are not shutting down for TB. In 2017, the latest data I could find from the CDC, there were 9,025 cases and 515 deaths in that year.

*With* the lockdown, we have had 1.5 million cases of covid and over 90,000 deaths in 2 months.

Covid is *not* like TB. It is *not* like the flu. It is far more contagious and far more deadly than the typical flu. We have no treatment, no vaccine, no cure. The only weapon we have is physical distancing....and that is rapidly being eroded despite the fact that, outside of the NY tri-state region, covid cases in the US are still rising rapidly.

Wasn't the object of the quarantine to slow the caronavirus (so as not to overwhelm heath care) not to stop it? Of course, many of us (me included) are more vulnerable and won't be able to have the vaccine so we are going to have to continue isolating or eventually take our chances. I think I'll be safer when they figure out how best to treat it rather than wait for a vaccine. Again, perhaps I'm missing something?

During this quarantine, I have only left my home 3 times. Plan to stay. I exist but getting a little tired of existing alone. Do talk with friends often.

It's a virus. It is going to spread no matter what you do or where you go. It has to run its course.

Not true. And a sad cry of nihilistic impotence.

A virus can only spread through contact with infected people. If with physical distancing and masking you can keep people far enough apart to prevent transmission, then it won't spread. If you can stop transmission sufficiently, then the virus will die out. If with physical distancing you can slow transmission of the virus for long enough then you will save lives by keeping people healthy until a cure/treatment/vaccine is developed. Even at that, over time, we may find better ways of treating people with serious illness to improve survival rates even if we can't stop disease acquisition. And all of that is beyond the benefits of not overwhelming hospital systems or having demand outrun supply for much needed supplies such as PPE and ventilators. By slowing the rates of disease acquisition, we can keep hospital personnel alive to treat patients by having them appropriately protected.

Stay home

The test is useless. It does not change the treatment or outcome. It is not going to save lives.

Not true. We have global models that show testing and tracing and isolation to be very effective in saving lives. The US, not so much...and it's going to get worse as more states continue to open without appropriate declines in cases, adequate testing and tracing as even trump's own policy recommends.

Thanks Annie. I'm quite optimistic and hopeful that this outbreak is a harsh wakeup call for our politicians to invest more money into our healthcare system. I think they've all been coasting far too long. Imagine what could be done if all the countries pooled their resources and knowledge to come up with a solution. Up until now it's been pretty much just a money grab. Many of us will be looking at retirement homes so I'm hoping (selfishly) some progress will be made to better protect our elderly now and in the future.

Amy - I haven't checked in the past week on Amazon but that was one of the places I've been checking and nothing had been available so far. Same with the local & regional sporting goods stores. Update, did a search on 10 lbs. dumbells and they are either marked "out of stock" or have a three month delivery weight. The local store still has none available and delivery not available.

Whoever posted about using a soup can as a dumbbell, the smallest weight I use is ten pounds, are you talking about something other than the little cans?

Here's the problem with "killing off" the virus in a population, the virus will return as soon as others from another country/population enters the clean zone. Unless the world goes into complete isolation that won't work. As an example, New Zealand claims to have zero cases but as soon as a person enters the country with the virus they will be starting over again. That's just not a reasonable expectation.

Anne, your thinking short term. What about a year from now? Spread those charts out over a year till we maybe, just maybe get a vaccine. In the end the same amount of people are going to be infected and the same amount of people are going to die. We are just spreading the deaths out over time, not preventing them. The so called cure is worse than the dz and at what expense as a whole on society.

Viruses just don't die out. It took almost 200 years for smallpox to be eradicated and that was with a vaccine. It is not as easy as physical distancing. To accomplish your idea you would have to quarantine EVERY single person in the whole world. Your house is on fire, too bad everyone is quarantined. Your having a MI, too bad no help for you. Everyone is quarantined. And just how are you going to quarantine every single person in the world.

Not 1.5 million died of TB in just 2018 world wide. 1.5 million people die EVERY YEAR from TB in the world. Yet we are not shutting down everything for TB. Why for covid and not TB . Why all of the wide spread testing on the population everywhere and not for TB. Why all the social restrictions for covid and not for TB or any other of the many community diseases. Why destroy our lives as we know it for just this one dz and at what cost as a whole. Something was stinky from the beginning of this mess. Over a dz with a 98% survival rate. Only time will tell what.

We are humans. We can't wrap ourselves in a bubble till death. As much as we would love to change it we get sick and yes everyone of us will die. Alway have and always will.

I see my post comparing TB to the reason that people should be tested for the virus is missing. What some posters are missing is that the time period when school children were tested for TB was in the 1950s and very early 1960s. While it may have been known that antibiotics worked people were still sent to the state TB homes. Apparently the antibiotics did not work on my classmates mother because she spent four years at the home.

It did not take 200 years to eradicate smallpox, it was a concerted effort organized by Larry Brilliant and the World Health Organization over a much shorter amount of time - just several years.

Those of you who want everything back to "normal" are getting your way, at least in TX and some other states. We shall see how it plays out over the next few weeks.

Carol, the smallpox immunization was discovered by Edward Jenner in 1796. The last case of smallpox in the US was not until 1949 and the last case in the world was 1975. Who declared it eradicate in 1980. 1796 to 1980 is way more than a few years.

Kadefol, of course the infection and death rate will go up as we open up and then probably again in the winter. The point is there will be no deaths from the lack of medical treatment as they were worried about to begin with. One size does not fit all. If an areas numbers do escalate faster than the available heath care then they should scale back personal contact , not a total shut down. If that happens in Philadelphia there is no need to restrict personal contact in Pittsbugh.

Kadefol, do you know that there are 22 Covid free counties in Texas? Zero cases. And fewer than 20 cases each in 121 other counties? Or that the death rate of reported cases so far is less than 3%? Less than half the mortality rate of New York State (<6.5%) or NYC (>8%)?

Function, there are plenty of deaths in spite of medical treatment.

FTL: Anne [sic], your thinking short term. What about a year from now? Spread those charts out over a year till we maybe, just maybe get a vaccine. In the end the same amount of people are going to be infected and the same amount of people are going to die. We are just spreading the deaths out over time, not preventing them.

So what about a year from now? You make the false assumption that *everyone* will acquire the disease and it's fatality will remain the same. That's simply not the case...not if one behaves in a way to minimize transmission. By delaying disease acquisition you *are* saving lives in the multiple ways I laid out earlier.

Take a look at New Zealand or Thailand where they are acquiring the disease in single digits per day. *If* I believe your data that 98% survive the disease, then at that pace, they would have one or two deaths from covid about every 20 days. So let's say it takes a year to develop and implement a vaccine or cure. That would mean maybe 40 people dead between now and then.

Vs. a country like the US where 1,000 people a day are *dying* of the disease. So between now and a year from now, you will have had 365,000 people die (not including the 90,000 already dead) ....and that's *with* the lock down as currently implemented. As states open up, the death rate is only going to increase and that number would be higher.

So under what conditions would you prefer to wait out a treatment/cure/vaccine? I know which I would prefer.

FTL: To accomplish your idea you would have to quarantine EVERY single person in the whole world.

Not true. We know there are hot spots full of disease and other areas that have minimal cases. For example nursing homes and meat packing plants and surrounds.

The whole point of stay at home is to tamp down the disease to buy time to get testing for the virus and anti-body testing and tracing up to snuff so that we can *safely* reopen. This means that we can direct attention and resources to those hot spots where it is needed, test, trace, find those who are contagious with and without symptoms and isolate people so that the disease spread stops with them. We can direct medical resources to those regions that have accelerating cases so healthcare need not be rationed for the sick.

And it means that those areas with low disease incidence can reopen with precautions in place to minimize the disease spread and maximize activity until a cure/vaccine/treatment can be found. The disease won't be eradicated until we get a cure or vaccine, but with testing and tracing, we can keep the disease acquisition controlled and minimize deaths until we do.

What makes zero sense is opening up even in areas with accelerating cases and throwing up ones' hands and saying, "So it goes...everyone's going to get sick, a lot of people will die but there's nothing we can do".

We are better than that.

I've already addressed TB and why it doesn't lead to a shutdown in the US or other developed nations...I'm not going over it again.

Kadefol, of course the infection and death rate will go up as we open up and then probably again in the winter.

There is no reason to expect the death rate to increase. The mortality rate as a percentage of infections, that is. If anything, IMO, it would be reasonable to expect the mortality rate to decrease as, hopefully, better treatments evolve. Along with better testing & methods for preventing the infection to spread into the most vulnerable (most like to perish) population (like nursing homes.)

Ci_lantra, poor choice of words. I should of said amount, not rate.

Anne, covid testing and antibody tests not full proof. You can lead a horse to water , but you can't make him drink. Are you suggesting everyone is forced to test. I'll tell you right now that will not happen, peacefully. With lack of people testing tracing is useless. And how long are we going to minimize deaths. 6 months, a year, 18 months or longer until we find a "cure". If any is to be found. Its only been 2 months and the food chain is already breaking down. People are already passing away from untreated non covid medical conditions. The CDC has already seen a drop in children receiving immunizations. They are fearing a measles outbreak. Let alone the government can't sustain handing out money to the vast amount of unemployed. The money jar only holds so much. And the economy as a whole is in the early stages of crumbling in only 2 months. It is not feasible for us to be. I also did not say everyone will become infected. 60 to 80 percent will. 98% survival rate is on the low side. When this is all done the they are believing it will be more than a 98% survival rate.

That 9 thousand people you quoted for TB deaths for one year is only the US. There is 1.5 million per year that die iin the world due to TB.

As long as the medical treatment is not rationed, not opening up will harm more people than not.

functionthenlook,

a) the name is Annie, not Anne

b) the expression is "fool proof" as in even a fool can't screw it up. No testing isn't fool proof, but it should improve over time and yes you can require people to get tested...if they want to work at their place of business...if they want to ride public transportation...if they want to enter a government-owned building...if they want to fly and so on...test them at the point of service.

c) People are already passing away from untreated non covid medical conditions. Show me data that non-covid deaths have accelerated since March 1. The data I've seen says the opposite...that death rates have accelerated as a result of covid but are not properly attributed to it.

d) Let alone the government can't sustain handing out money to the vast amount of unemployed. This is BS...the government could easily sustain supporting the unemployed and it could use it's stimulus to effectively support jobs in businesses receiving aid *if it was properly designed for economic efficiency*. But it wasn't. Instead the gop was so busy protecting trump's $500B slush fund that it never paid attention to helping those who need it most.

e) And how long are we going to minimize deaths. 6 months, a year, 18 months or longer until we find a "cure". The easy answer for me is as long as it takes. We're talking death here. We're talking saving lives here. No one is talking about shutting everything down forever...it's a matter of controlling the disease to localized hot spots and then attacking those hot spots when and as they occur...and all of that only until a vaccine/cure/treatment becomes available. But instead of using this hiatus properly to gear the nation for that phase of pandemic, the govt has been dicking around with unproven treatments, stealing PPE out from under the states that have ordered them, making up fake models to replicate the trump narrative rather than provide accurate and factual information while firing the experts and truth tellers, and telling everyone it's a hoax that will disappear come Nov 4.

f) 98% survival rate is on the low side. When this is all done the they are believing it will be more than a 98% survival rate. I don't know who "they" are but currently in the US, 6% of those who have tested positive for the disease have died. Vs 0.1% for the seasonal flu.

g) I don't know why you keep harping on TB but I will repeat: In the US: in 12 months TB: 9,025 cases and 515 deaths; in 2 months Covid-19: 1.5 million cases and 90,000 deaths. Now one of these is not like the other....

It's very sad to me to see folks who treat this as a mere academic discussion, 'Sure, the more we open back up, more will get sick and die, that's just how it works.' I guess it can be rationalized and "lived with" and spoken of in such detached measures, unless/until it appears on your doorstep or affects one near and dear (or far flung yet cherished). Maybe then it'll become personal and a horror to think the "economy" outweighs the lives of thousands.

Kadefol, do you know that there are 22 Covid free counties in Texas?
Zero cases. And fewer than 20 cases each in 121 other counties? Or
that the death rate of reported cases so far is less than 3%? Less than
half the mortality rate of New York State (<6.5%) or NYC (>8%)?

According to our local paper:

Since reopening, Texas has seen a modest but steady increase in the growth of new coronavirus cases, and the state is not meeting all benchmarks for reopening set by White House officials or even Abbott himself. The state set new daily records last week for both new cases and deaths.

The governor has pointed to the state's low hospitalization and positive
test rates as reasons for optimism. But the state has fallen short of
Abbott's goal to reach 30,000 tests per day. And experts said late last week
that the state likely has yet to see a peak in its death rate. Experts
also worry the state will see a resurgence in new infections in the
summer and fall if millions of employees return to work without proper
precautions, such as widespread workplace testing and robust
surveillance of fever and other symptoms.

Sorry guys I would love to continue to straighten you out, but my grandgirls are here and we have places to go and things to do for the next few days.

straighten you out

Sounds pretty adversarial, I think function (and one or two others) are truly enjoying being trolls. I honestly do hope we do not get to hear a tragic update to the grand girls.

e) And how long are we going to minimize deaths. 6 months, a year, 18 months or longer until we find a "cure". The easy answer for me is as long as it takes. We're talking death here. We're talking saving lives here. No one is talking about shutting everything down forever...it's a matter of controlling the disease to localized hot spots and then attacking those hot spots when and as they occur...and all of that only until a vaccine/cure/treatment becomes available.

It seems to me that this is a central question, and it keeps on being asked and then thoughtfully answered (thank you Annie). It will be asked again tomorrow, by those who can't seem to understand what is being said, the value of life, and the concept that lives are not merely statistics..

What the article snippet does not say is that Texas is targeting the covid testing to high risk areas, known hot spots--meat packing plants, nursing homes, prison / jail facilities so an increase in positive cases is expected.

You can see county by county detail here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/county-map.html?state=TX

Even with the added time we all have, life is too short to waste in exchanges with people who aren't able to understand nor thoughtfully deal with current times. It's a comment I made recently with a bit more detail that doesn't need to be repeated.

Yes what is the end? Most of the people on this forum have stated they won’t take a vaccine?

What we know is that Texas has a total population of 29 million people; 1347 deaths due to Covid.

By contrast, New York State has a population of 19.5 million people; 28,302 deaths due to Covid.

And 7 of the 10 regions in NYS are in varying stages of reopening.

Cii-lantro, we will find out soon enough if the reopening was a good decision or too early.

Raye:

It looks like ebay would be a better bet. Though I did find a 10 pound kettlebell on amazon.

https://www.amazon.com/Yes4All-Vinyl-Coated-Kettlebell-Weights/dp/B0093CMYT6/ref=sr_1_46?dchild=1&keywords=10+pound+weights&qid=1589925836&sr=8-46

https://www.ebay.com/itm/CAP-10-LB-POUND-DUMBBELLS-Hex-Neoprene-Single-NEW-SDN5-010-Grey-Weight-Training/324171363492?hash=item4b7a1e74a4:g:ZggAAOSwWNRexDUW:sc:USPSPriorityFlatRateEnvelope!35475!US!-1

https://www.ebay.com/itm/10lb-Dumbbells-Set-20-Pound-Neoprene-Hex-Weights-NEW-FREE-FAST-SHIPPING/402267668762?hash=item5da905811a:g:0KYAAOSw3-tevHyq

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Pair-of-10-lb-Rubber-Cap-Neoprene-Dumbbell-Weights-Fitness-20-lbs-total/373058541458?_trkparms=aid%3D1110006%26algo%3DHOMESPLICE.SIM%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D226416%26meid%3De9405188e4fa4c858c6a8dbf3e65a933%26pid%3D100005%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D12%26mehot%3Dpf%26sd%3D402267668762%26itm%3D373058541458%26pmt%3D1%26noa%3D0%26pg%3D2047675%26algv%3DSimplAMLv5PairwiseWebWithBBEV2aDemotion%26brand%3DCAP&_trksid=p2047675.c100005.m1851

https://www.ebay.com/itm/CAP-Hex-Neoprene-Dumbbell-Weights-Set-10-lbs-Total-20-Pounds/274370670239?_trkparms=ispr%3D1&hash=item3fe1c42e9f%3Ag%3AMbIAAOSw4xVexEVt&enc=AQAEAAACcIQvEcHUrT7nmUC3yY5qbPyaBN1nJEDYW8MyypsJPgXKIoKynsg6X64bO%2FF4KtKQ1muAgkJu%2BtO7P%2B49%2B45zpaBiZv%2FhOFbH0fYGM%2BPmU4i%2FwtDG4XrAeQmCCWNw3tfAOsiPXnLo3WIV%2BTarevFO6iKya%2BALi4L3VIirIYUo7NZMTKlRuaKW4%2Brr4MNSTsU%2FyAonoyA2UouMRZO%2FsISh68KXelw0TUClcfMwJ3lsFJeNv%2Fm1kA0iGxnWyXaLjgyOLQFOrtr8ohkJANumI%2FVRVLF2rfhtv97Z%2BeQK7kWRjz%2F1ucRl1CLgjxp1VHMGn8PxxMbSLgQdccgAU1Lpd0dCGPS8nhPUjyac5Q2OjqrzxwlaQ%2Fovl41dSi3%2Bv7Lnzvh8mzK1adWK35%2FvcbYxCLXPrqQI9Ogl0N4TMx%2Bh8x8%2ByNCKvHyZBRaIPPA0Hydq0Ex3DhlUz2Oppj%2FASB12MOuri6iaf5hQhR2sJTRdGWpE5lDzZ9sMmmU6%2FNIjpqHwTkG67QD8yuV7TpqJ2nlFOqaD%2BY1r97ttyiWHyVlI7SFQMA2fGVwVp8ogSbiZNerCEAG9LF3yKt0gZ4UCJ8FcAS6as7SuFR4W%2FnSBmkPSUQ4H0ZYsTciats0W8GvqVuUiRA8HjGQNMXNU0yn0HS6JkuT2QnXCCB%2BIkzVrEsaWyeo8BT8gNpXOwSY0WdgilZALlPJUsjz0f1UXUCEuq335EU%2F%2F7AdlrsN1XkFIZ0qTK4CskrmNpyqn1eXduaPPzn2LLSj1zxPvciBiVqlMsX6bsntIA%2FBPT0Ktk4lwS0miALRaN4H2BqdISRcSLcPo5ek2dnie2A%3D%3D&checksum=2743706702396d4f86dfa81041669142035d248468bc&LH_ItemCondition=1000

There are LOTS of listings for 10 pound weights on Ebay.

Yes, we will see. But I also feel that the country was getting restless, that to not reopen was soon going to be not an option for government.

We had the most deaths in one day yesterday, 20, in KY. I think most things will be open by the end of the week, with limits on number of people allowed.

Started another book a day or so ago, The Immune. About a pandemic, written in 2015, I think. The president in the book, or one of their staff (can't remember now) used the same phrase as our president and a certain news channel personality used in real life: " the cure can be worse than the problem" or something to that effect. It was really chilling and the fictitious president also didn't take the pandemic serious. This is about the fifth or sixth book I've read about viruses/pandemics in the past year. I don't know why I'm fascinated by them and end-of-the -world type books. I've been reading those since I was a teenager.

The president in the book, or one of their staff (can't remember now) used the same phrase as our president and a certain news channel personality used in real life: " the cure can be worse than the problem"

The cure can be worse than the cause/ disease/ affliction is akin to other commonly used English expressions ...

First, do no harm

Like washing a spot on a wall

Add insult to injury

are some that I can think of off-hand. I've heard/ used/ read all of 'em for as long as I can remember. All four mean roughly the same thing.

Numbers are not ballooning here in Ohio. They continue to decline even though there are more tests being run.

That is good news, Arkansas Girl.

With my job I may not go back until August. Hoping for July 1st but doesn't look to happen. If it doesn't I hope they extend the $600. A lot of people, including me, need the extra money.

I have a unique view on death but I don't want to offend anyone.

SamKaren Your resident dj

Even though all the states are now easing restrictions from the lockdown, please keep in mind, the virus has not changed. We have no cure, no treatment, no vaccine. We have limited testing and no accurate anti-body testing. It is as contagious as ever. So as far as the virus is concerned, nothing has changed. We are still ripe for its pickings. This thing is NOT over.

The only thing that's changed is the states' response to this virus which may or may not prove to be a wise thing. Please be careful, watch and wait. If the number of cases start to rise again we may be back to where we were in March in a matter of days.

I know it's hard not to do the things you used to, to see the people you miss, but understand that, with a few months of being careful, you will live to see and hug those you love again. The alternative is you or they may not live at all. Stay safe, stay healthy.

Finding toilet paper is no longer a problem.

I received an automated confirmation this morning of my hair appointment two days from now. I double-checked with my stylist because I was pretty certain that salons are not yet allowed to be open. Sure enough, they aren't. As Alexa sometimes says, "Le sigh."

If Ohio's reported cases are declining in the metro areas, that's wonderful. In the mostly rural southern and southeastern counties that had only a few early cases, new cases seem to be on a slow increase. Vinton was the last to have no reported cases, then in the last weeks they've jumped to 16. That might reflect testing for someone's whole family, co-workers, a nursing home--I don't know the details--and I know that seems to be a small number compared to other areas.

Kathsgrdn, I have been very impressed with KY's stats (as well as WV's). We have relatives in a KY county which borders the river, and one of my brothers works in WV, so I check their stats often.

My father is ecstatic that the local Bob Evans is opening for inside dining tomorrow. I'm not so thrilled, since he is 83 and won't wear a mask or properly distance himself from others.

ETA, here's our 21-day trend--unfortunately up almost 250 more cases than yesterday (484):

This restaurant business is very concerning to me as you can't eat with a mask on...