Try posting at City Datas No. Virginia forum also.

I own my single family house in that area and plan on moving to Colorado in August. Ten years ago I bought this house without using a realtor on either end, so I am familiar with the process. Any commission savings would be passed on to the buyer. If he might be interested he can send me an email and I can send him pictures with a description. It is in excellent condition with many upgrades, including Andersen Frenchwood Oak patio doors and Rosewood flooring. The property is exactly as you described:
"Convenience, commutability and a quiet neighborhood would probably be paramount to him. He's owned a small SFH up here for many years - not a lot of property but in an older neighborhood."
It is on a quiet dead end street in Vienna and is the size of a large townhouse on 1/6 acre. Built in 1987, it has been landscaped and constantly upgraded.

I'd look at the city of Falls Church, North Arlington as well as Vienna if he wants to be fairly close to work in an older neighborhood with smaller homes. I like the houses around Lake Barcroft (I think that would be Falls Church zip).

>

I thought I didn't have to say it but I guess I do - please, no "buy my house" posts. I'm just looking for info on areas. Thanks.

We live in Falls church (area code 22042) just off of Lee highway, very close to Gallows road and rt 50. We bought a condo last yr, and plan to stay here until summer 2009 ( I will have completed my RN degree) We moved from Arlington VA, which was a super area, very hip, nightlife was great. Where we are, it is a bit further out, but close to a lot. Vienna is close by, Fairfax. Anything within the beltway is going to be a tad pricey. Prices in most areas have seemed to settle down and not skyrocketing up. When I go out for my runs, I do notice a lot of houses for sale, so your friend should have a good selection to choose from.

airforceguy: "Prices in most areas have seemed to settle down and not skyrocketing up."

Not skyrocketing up? That's a bit of an understatement. If anything, that rocket is headed in the opposite direction. NoVa may be a great place to live, but it is taking the brunt of the housing downtown in the Metro D.C. area with no indication of stabilizing anytime soon. My recommendation for the OP's relative would be to rent for awhile in NoVa until things settle down. Here are but a few examples of what has been going on in Arlington:

5353 COLUMBIA PIKE #110
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $120,000
Prior Sale: $185,000 3/28/2005
Listing Date: 06/11/07
-35.1%

4600 FOUR MILE RUN DR #1136
ARLINGTON, VA VA
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $305,700 12/1/2005
Listing Date: 08/10/07
-34.9%

902 QUINCY ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $785,000
Prior Sale: $1,049,000 7/29/2005
Listing Date: 11/12/07
-25.2%

1525 GEORGE MASON DR #22
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $219,000
Prior Sale: $290,000 10/24/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-24.5%

1310 COLUMBUS ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $420,000
Prior Sale: $525,000 7/22/2005
Listing Date: 11/13/07
-20.0%

822 ARLINGTON MILL DR #203
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $275,000 7/27/2006
Listing Date: 11/12/07
-9.1%

4600 FOUR MILE RUN DR S #1228
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $274,200 8/16/2007
Listing Date: 11/14/07
-8.9%

5164 11TH ST S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $464,900
Prior Sale: $503,000 1/2/2007
Listing Date: 11/12/07
-7.6%

oops, I meant to say as well they were going downward!

Of 8 properties listed above, 5 are condos.
The condo market is NOT the same as the SF market.
Note these are still asking prices, not closed sales.
It means little that sellers lowered the price they asked.
How do the closed sale prices compare to previous sale prices is the correct metric.

The listings could just as easily be flippers who do not have the financial resources to weather even a slowed market and are desperate to bail on adjustable mortgages.

That said, it looks like a decent time to pick up some RE if you do not mind living in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Arlington.
I own a couple properties there and have decent positive cash flows on them.
Expected for the 8+ years ownership properties, but I have 2 that I only purchased about 3 years ago and they still cover all expenses (including a maintenance 'set aside').

The overall Washington metro market has slow sales but slightly increased prices.
This is sort of typical for the area, particularly NoVA.
Sales tank, but only the truly desperate actually sell at lower prices.

brickeyee: "Note these are still asking prices, not closed sales. It means little that sellers lowered the price they asked. How do the closed sale prices compare to previous sale prices is the correct metric."

I don't quite get your point about asking prices versus solds. What you are saying would be true in a rising market; however, in a falling market, if anything, the actual selling prices will be lower than the asking prices so the percentage differential from previous sales would be even greater.

brickeyee: "Of 8 properties listed above, 5 are condos.
The condo market is NOT the same as the SF market."

Fair enough. Okay, here are 10 more examples from NoVa - all single family houses, that have dropped between 35% and 50% from the peak:

7873 MEADOW CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $145,900
Prior Sale: $289,400 6/30/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-49.6%

4303 ELLIOT CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $174,900
Prior Sale: $325,000 04/14/2006
Listing Date: 11/06/07
-46.2%

15394 GRIST MILL TER
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $187,000
Prior Sale: $319,900 04/03/2006
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-41.5%

15221 LORD CULPEPER CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $390,900
Prior Sale: $662,000 1/26/2007
Listing Date: 11/08/07
-41.0%

14747 TAMARACK PL
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $285,000 09/29/2005
Listing Date: 11/07/07
-40.4%

7649 CHADDS LANDING WAY
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $229,900
Prior Sale: $380,000 02/01/2006
Listing Date: 11/05/07
-39.5%

3415 HOWARD ST
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $470,000 10/30/2006
Listing Date: 11/09/07
-38.3%

8951 WESTCHESTER DR
MANASSAS, VA 20112
List Price: $307,000
Prior Sale: $485,000 03/30/2006
Listing Date: 11/03/07
-36.7%

14729 HACKWOOD ST
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $179,900
Prior Sale: $280,000 05/02/2006
Listing Date: 11/09/07
-35.8%

7316 PRICES COVE PL
GAINESVILLE, VA 20155
List Price: $397,000
Prior Sale: $609,500 04/03/2006
Listing Date: 11/12/07
-34.9%

Thanks everyone for the suggestions and information!

Now you have picked houses that are at the very outskirts of the NoVA market.
Try McLean, Springfield, Falls Church, Reston, Arlington (SF).

brickeyee: "Note these are still asking prices, not closed sales. It means little that sellers lowered the price they asked. How do the closed sale prices compare to previous sale prices is the correct metric."

bethesdamadman:"I don't quite get your point about asking prices versus solds. What you are saying would be true in a rising market; however, in a falling market, if anything, the actual selling prices will be lower than the asking prices so the percentage differential from previous sales would be even greater."

Since NO sales may have occurred at the asking prices they do not mean anything, rising or falling.
Appraisals are based on CLOSED sales, not asking prices.

You obviously now little about the market in NoVA.

brickeyee: "Now you have picked houses that are at the very outskirts of the NoVA market.
Try McLean, Springfield, Falls Church, Reston, Arlington (SF)"

Okay. Here's one from Reston for you:

2210 SOUTHGATE SQ
RESTON, VA VA 20191
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 01/19/2006
Listing Date: 06/29/07
-44.5%

And here is one from Springfield:

6606 CUSTER ST
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $485,000 06/14/2005
Listing Date: 08/15/07
-27.9%

And here is one from Arlington:

300 TAYLOR ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $745,500
Prior Sale: $900,000 12/9/2005
Listing Date: 10/18/07
-17.2%

And here is one from Alexandria (is that close enough in for you?):

6017 RIDGE VIEW DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $530,000 10/31/2006
Listing Date: 08/09/07
-20.8%

brickeyee: "Since NO sales may have occurred at the asking prices they do not mean anything, rising or falling. Appraisals are based on CLOSED sales, not asking prices. You obviously now little about the market in NoVA."

I have posted the closed sales that occurred in 2005 and/or 2006. I am posting what the current owners are now asking for their properties and showing you the difference in market value from the previous closed sale. Are you seriously suggesting that things aren't really that bad and these listing prices "do not mean anything" because these are just asking prices and the owners haven't been able to sell their houses even at these reduced prices?!

I'm not sure that I am the one that doesn't know (or want to believe) what the current status of the NoVa market is.

Bethesdamadman, I see your point about comparing what people are now selling their house for versus what they had paid to buy the house (there's a big difference - going in the wrong direction).

That said, the houses you picked are not in the most desirable neighborhoods. For instance, 6606 CUSTER ST, SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150 is in a questionable school district near the Springfield interchange. Despite its high price, 300 TAYLOR ST, ARLINGTON, VA 22204 is in South Arlington rather than North Arlington.

I would advise the OP's relative rent in order to get a feel for where he wants to live rather than to "time" the market.

jy md: "That said, the houses you picked are not in the most desirable neighborhoods."

That may very well be true. Brickeyee wasn't happy with my selections from Prince William County and wanted examples of price declines closer in. Since he specifically mentioned Springfield and Arlington as two of his examples, I just selected one each from those areas. I was not trying to suggest or imply that all of NoVa was tanking to the tune of 25% - 40% price drops; I am sure that homes in the better neighborhoods with the better school districts are holding up much better than that. My initial post on this thread was that NoVa has suffered the most out of all the Metro D.C. areas in this downturn.

Absent any empiricial evidence to the contrary, I still believe that to be true.

jy _md wrote: That said, the houses you picked are not in the most desirable neighborhoods. For instance, 6606 CUSTER ST, SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150 is in a questionable school district near the Springfield interchange.

Fairfax County is a "questionable" school district?

Maybe you meant a questionable cluster? This address is within the boundaries of these schools: Springfield Estates Elem, Key Middle and Lee HS. Although they certainly reflect the changes that have occured in schools across the County over the past 5-10 years (i.e., increase in diversity of populations, increase in ESL services, increase in the number of students who qualify for free and reduced lunch), and while I personally wouldn't purchase a home in that area (mainly due to lot size) there is nothing that I know about these schools that would cause me to call them "questionable".

Goldgirl,

Your relative might learn a great deal by using the sites listed below. The first two list what's for sale in NoVa's MLS. Each has a different search focus but the two combined provide a powerful look into the location and quality of homes for sale in the NoVa area.

The third site provides current statistical data on the NoVa housing market. You can search out DOMS, inventory by price category and home type, number of properties sold in these categories etc. You can also search specific zip codes as well as broader geographic areas. It's fun and informative.

http://www.vamlsrealty.com/SearchSelectCounty.aspx?NS=Y

http://www.homesdatabase.com/northrop/cgi-bin/aa.fcgi

http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/monthly_reti.cfm

As a lifelong Northern Virginian, I've witnessed huge changes to this area over time. The most profound of these changes is the population growth and its impact on traffic, neighborhood composition, and the commercial infrastructure. Here in NoVa, change is the only constant. I highly recommend that your relative rent for a period of time to get to know the area.

There are hundreds of neighborhhoods w/in a five mile radius of Gallows/50. Each has a different appeal or may be in some form of transition. Example: Today's Merrifield area (down the road from Gallows/50) will look far different in three years. The construction is massive. Up the road, Falls Church City is rapidly changing its housing composition and the traffic patterns are changing too...not for the better IMHO.

There's a great deal of rental inventory in NoVa. All housing types are available for rent...Higher end SFH's to townhouse to small apartments etc. Our rental market provides broad choices for every taste and pocketbook. NoVa is diverse and complex and it's worth getting to know before making a real estate comittment.

As for the state of the housing market, throw a stone and you'll get an opinion. My somewhat well-educated opinion is that home sales will stay slow for quite some time and it won't be easy to unload a real estate mistake.

Yes, I DO believe prices will drop further. I think the entire metro DC area will see some pain.

Where? How much? Beats me. But anyone who believes that prices in Arlington, Alexandria, and even, McLean, can't fall does not remember the early 90's very well. The ice cream cone does melt from the outside in.

Another example of recent price decline...my lovely little neighborhood of high-end townhomes in the City of Falls Church saw price drops of 12-15% from 2005-2006. But sellers in both years still made a nice chunk of change from when we bought in 1998.

Happy Hunting and I hope your relative moves here and learns that NoVa has a lot to offer (besides terrible traffic) for those that choose wisely.

Laura1202, You're right. I wasn't questioning Fairfax County (I worked for FCPS as a school planner in the 80s) school system, but the school pyramid.

Not all FCPS schools have the same reputation. A lot of a school's reputation is based not on the quality of education but on student demographics. I've met some very innovative principals in these "low scoring" schools but these schools aren't seen as desirable simply because there is a high percentage of ESL or free lunch or minority students and a low percentage of the affluent non-Hispanic whites. So while Lee High school is a very good school some people may downplay it because of its demographics (32% free lunch; 24% limited English proficiency, etc.) People want to be in the Langley district (1% free lunch; 3% limited English proficiency and yes, the test scores are higher) and housing prices reflect that.

"Fairfax County is a "questionable" school district?"

Not all Fairfax schools are created equal.
Certain 'pyramids' consistently score very well, while others are not nearly as good.

Okay. Here's one from Reston for you:
2210 SOUTHGATE SQ
RESTON, VA VA 20191
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 01/19/2006
Listing Date: 06/29/07
-44.5%

Owned for 377 days

And here is one from Springfield:
6606 CUSTER ST
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $349,900
Prior Sale: $485,000 06/14/2005
Listing Date: 08/15/07
-27.9%

Owned for 567 days

And here is one from Arlington:
300 TAYLOR ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $745,500
Prior Sale: $900,000 12/9/2005
Listing Date: 10/18/07
-17.2%

Owned for 479 days

And here is one from Alexandria (is that close enough in for you?):
6017 RIDGE VIEW DR
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $530,000 10/31/2006
Listing Date: 08/09/07
-20.8%

Owned for 203 days

Not a single house owned for more than 2 years.
These are flipper houses most likely.
They have an effect on the market, but there are very likely other hidden reasons for the price drops.

I am planning in picking up some places in the next few months in any case.

If you are moving to the area and do not plan to stay for at least 5-7 years buying right now is probably not a good idea.

brickeyee: "Not a single house owned for more than 2 years."

That's the whole point! (I feel like I'm hitting my head against a wall.)

I'm showing how prices have dropped in the last one or two years in NoVa by pointing out properties that sold in 2005 or 2006 and comparing them to the asking prices/market value of the very same properties now. I can't very well do that if I pick a property that was bought in 1998 and was put on the market this year, now could I? That would reflect the change in the market between 1998 and 2007, but wouldn't show what has been happening in the past two years. The only way to do that is to compare houses that sold in 2005 & 2006 to houses that are on the market now. So of course the properties that I identified have only been owned for a year or two. Now do you understand?

And of course, you follow that up with a comment that they must be flipper houses or that there must be something wrong with each of them. @@

I give you objective, empirical data and you give me supposition.

brickeyee wrote: Not all Fairfax schools are created equal.
Certain 'pyramids' consistently score very well, while others are not nearly as good

When the district consists of 236 schools that have 164,843 students enrolled (13th largest district in the US), it goes without saying that some of the schools will be "better" than others.

jy_md wrote: Laura1202, You're right. I wasn't questioning Fairfax County (I worked for FCPS as a school planner in the 80s) school system, but the school pyramid.

I didn't *think you meant the entire district. And I should have said "pyramid" not "cluster". Out here in the country where I live now (although some still consider it NoVA), there is only one high school so we only have a cluster, no pyramids!

I agree about the student demographics and the reputation of the school. When we bought in Fairfax Station 11 years ago, I was adamant that I didn't want to live in the Hayfield pyramid. I don't recall looking at SAT scores or graduation rates; right or wrong, it was purely perceived reputation.

"I'm showing how prices have dropped in the last one or two years in NoVa by pointing out properties that sold in 2005 or 2006 and comparing them to the asking prices/market value of the very same properties now. I can't very well do that if I pick a property that was bought in 1998 and was put on the market this year, now could I?"

Buy picking properties that have been owned a very short time you are confining yourself to a small segment of the market.
Market tracking is done by looking at the median house prices SOLD over a period.
Individual comps from year to year without further research do not really tell you anything.

How many have you purchased and sold in NoVA in the past 5 years?
I have bought and sold almost a dozen.

The properties you have selected are in the 'distress sale' group.
You have to be pretty stupid to play the 'flipper' game and expect to make money every time.
Add to that the complete lack of financial backing these fools have and they are going to take a bath.

If I was looking to purchase one of these places I would see if they are actually owner occupied.
I would bet most are not.
I would then drive the price down even further by pulling the note for the place and seeing what the terms are.
If they are 'flipper' types they are probably getting desperate.

The problem is that these are NOT regular sales.
They are almost surely investor sales, and while they have an effect on the market, they rarely reflect a willing seller/willing buyer exchange.

Try and purchase a house in McLean, Falls Church City, or even Northern Arlington in the $700k range.
They are few and far between.

If you want to spend well over %1 million there is a decent supply, so these prices will stagnate (and may even start down).

Brickeyee and Bethesdamadman,

Your posts raise an interesting (at least to me) question about how distress sales, flips, and other investor sales affect comps and the overall market. I started a new thread on the topic and would appreciate any insights you may have. I'm pretty clueless on this area of real estate.