I believe it is what you decide to make it, you had to be under a rock not see this coming. As a company we are tightening our belts and pressing forward. Our sales year runs from 12/1-11/30 as of today I am personally 45% ahead where I was this time last year and projecting a record sales and dig year. Over 50% of my personal business is referral. The customers that where not referred I over service & over deliver on my product, so that when asked how the project went and who built the pool there is no hesitation. I also see a trend of pool sales that I did not get turning into more and more lead referrals because in the end the buyer realizes who was above board and who was not. The same buyer that did not buy my pool has called and referred a friend or family because they do not want them to have the headache they did by making the wrong decision. As far as material I only build gunite, although we have had increases they have been manageable to this point. I agree the strong will survive.

I'm certain that this will be a tough year, and I'll second that the strong will survive.
My biggest blessing is that 4 of my 5 excavators, and 10 of my 11 trucks are paid for.
My biggest problem is making weekly payroll with the lack of work I'm currently enjoying. In the last quarter of '08 I was forced to cut my men back to 3 day work weeks in an effort not to layoff some of my hands.
They've all taken this in stride and have stepped up by taking on side jobs from my buyers in landscaping and small jobs for them that I no bid on. I haven't landscaped my pools in a long time but have recently quoted some packages with it included. I've also given consideration to starting a weekly maintenance and service/repair side to my company.
I wish that I could predict a better year than '07, my '08 was down almost 20% to my '07 due to Hurricane Ike and the first crash of the economy that came 2 weeks later.
My goal for '09 is 60-70 pools, which is way less than the 80-100 pools I normally build each year.

See ya,
Kelly

poolanalyst.

Very good insight but you're about a year behind the truth. Maybe in your area it has been good but not in so cal. The economy does not discriminate against the size of a builder and what he owns. If there is zero income, you still can't survive.

In our area, every builder, and I mean the national ones too have closed their doors and are working out of a closet at home to design and build the two pools they did in 2008. Every independent who had little overhead is out of business except for about three in my area. The absolute best are building 2-3 in the last five months as opposed to 20 a month that they did in 2007.

Not to argue but what you are saying is old news here and we are actually turning up a notch so maybe that is good for you guys in about 18 months after you walk through the fire that we have.

Overall,distribution is down 60% in terms of sales from 2007 and that is a direct reflection of where we have been, not what is coming.

Let's just be clear on one thing...Texas is not California and California is not Texas. I believe both states probably agree that they are happy that statement will remain true.

So is it cheaper to build a pool now? I was pretty much blown away by how much it is to build a pool compared to a few years ago. My same pool that was 22,000 in 1999 is now 40,000.

Repair guy,
Charlotte is traditionally the last city to see the effects of a slowdown in the housing market. And, as we all know, most pools are financed with a home equity loan. Charlotte's home values were hanging fairly tough until about August or Sept of 2008. We were off about only 5% year over year at that time. As of last month, we jumped to 17% off from December 2007! So, Poolanalyst is correct to just recently notice some big affects here and you are correct to assume that his predictions seem late to you because Charlotte's economy was one of the very last to tank.
Hopefully, Charlotte will not be one of the last to see the improvement.
When the market does turn around, those that survive, (pool builders and agents) will have so much less competition to deal with, and therefore should be in the catbird seat then.

ncrealestateguy,

Do you attribute the latest drop in Charlotte to the turmoil in the banking industry and, especially, the Wachovia debacle?

How did we compare with Dallas,TX during our 17% decline?I had read in the past that we had always been doing slightly better than Dallas during this decline.

Please also remember that back office costs have increased as well. Things such as the various insurances, fuel, rent, etc... have not gone down in price.

Will there be fewer pools sold? Yes
Will the costs to all parties be higher? Yes
Will there always be someone out there ready to drop trow to get a deal? Yes
Is there risk associated with dealing with them? Yes, can you say Ponzi-like.

PBs will need to make up revenue somewhere. Service and maintenance will help a lot.

I noticed last year that many people were putting off proper repairs for bandaid fixes. I expect some more of the same this year but I also expect that when the bandaids break and the piper comes calling for payment, it won't be cheaper than last year.

I can't tell you how many times I felt like the Fram oil filter guy saying you can pay me now or you can pay me later.

Will it be a hard year? Yep, for everyone.

poolguynj,

What general part of NJ do you operate in?

Poolanalyst wrote:

"Do you attribute the latest drop in Charlotte to the turmoil in the banking industry and, especially, the Wachovia debacle?"

Wachovia has not announced any layoffs yet, due to the Wells Fargo takeover, so I think we haven't seen the influx of homes on the market from this deal yet. I have heard more like March or so.
About 85% of my Buyer business was from Buyers relocating from the NE and from Fl. Both of those areas got hit pretty hard as far as depreciating home values. The Buyers from these areas just can not sell their existing homes, or if they do sell, they do not have that big pocketful of equity like they used to have, in order to spend here. I think the trickle down effect just took a little while to get here. Also the 17% decline was just for the month of Dec. 2008. We were holding steady at 9% for 3 months. last month could just be a quick blip, or we could stay at that number for a while. No one knows until Jan. stats come out.
I am not privy to Dallas' monthly stats, but I have also heard that Charlotte and dallas have mirrored each other in past hard times.

Have you heard anything about the local A&S shop? I put a call into them last Wed. and have not gotten a call back yet.
What about Pools By Design?

ncrealestateguy,

If we can get that GMAC relocation here, that would be a plus.The other plus might be that NC is on Wall st. time and Wells Fargo may want to have certain sectors of their business here.

Although not their core business of Eastern PA,NJ,and some NY, I think that A&S will be in Charlotte for a long time to come.The fellow running it now has a solid construction background, rather than a sales background, like previous GM's(Bill Howell).

Pools By Design seems to be financially strong and I am sure that they will weather this downturn OK.

I am in central NJ but have customers spread in an roughly 90 mile diameter circle.

poolguynj,

Are you talking Middletown area?

poolguynj,

Are you familar with the Hawkfive pool build in Central NJ thread?

The largest stumbling block to builders here is the inability to rationalize that pools cost more when everything else has gone down. Housing is down 50-60%, gas is down 60%, reoairs to pools are getting cut rated by desperate techs but hard costs to build a pool are up 10-12% on equipment and sometimes 100% on steel. The only way to get a job for builders is to do it for less profit and they can't do that because they still owe tens of thousands to suppliers from the good times that they can't pay. That is another story of who should be in business and who should not.

repair guy,

How are the successful pool buildeers in your area positioned in relation to their overhead of brick and mortar building,employees,assets,vehicles,etc.?

Johnfather,

quote" So is it cheaper to build a pool now? "quote
Absolutely not.
I've NEVER paid more for service and supplies in my lifetime of building swimming pools.

quote" My same pool that was 22,000 in 1999 is now 40,000. "quote
I'm not a bit surprised, in the past 10 years my incurred costs of construction have EASILY doubled.

Here are some examples;
#3 (3/8")rebar by the truckload price per bar
1999- 75 cents
2003- 99 cents
Today- $3.75
Gunite per yard installed;
1999- $70.00
2003- $100.00
Today- $140.00
Redimix concrete by the yard
1999- $39.00
2003- $49.00
Today $95.00
2" SCH40 pvc pipe by the truckload
1999- 26 cents
2003- 38 cents
Today- 54 cents
1 1/2 to 2" Flagstone by the truckload per ton
1999- $90.00
2003- $125.00
Today $185.00
Freight on rock per truckload
1999- $750.00
2003- $900.00
Today $1200.00

My laborers are making 50 percent more than 1999 and 25 % more than 2003.
My masons and skilled help are making 100% more than 1999 and 50% more than 2003.

I can't cut wages because of the high cost of living and building materials won't go down unless the demand drops or the costs of producing them go down and the Mfg's drops them.

Almost all of my work is inhouse, and although I use very few subcontractors my understanding is that they're charging double what they were charging at the turn of the new Millennium.

Repairguy;
quote" The only way to get a job for builders is to do it for less profit "quote
I agree with this.
quote" they can't do that because they still owe tens of thousands to suppliers from the good times that they can't pay. "quote
I disagree with this.
Only the ones that were poor money managers are in this position. I can assure you that if you went to the pool buyers you'd find that they paid the pool builder.
These guys just didn't earmark the collections for paying the associated bills that came with the project.
I'm certain that you have pool building customers who are current and in good standing with Manny.
My biggest B1TCH with your employer is just how lax they are with delinquent customers and how easily they can get product with way way past due invoices. Dave should of had the branch mangers cut them completely off. As long as they can acquire products they'll be a thorn in the side of the good businessman in our industry.
Just my .02

See ya,
Kelly

poolanalyst,

I do cover Middletown and am familiar and have even contributed to the hawkfive threads.

Kelly,

I agree. The builders were allowed to carry way too much. But, in reality, every segment of the boom failed in this area. Look at housing. We get flack for such tight credit now, it ridiculous but it has to be that way because bad guys made it bad for everyone. But then again, that is the case everywhere. Tight credit in the market now has the average Joe who pays on time every month to the VISA seeing his credit line reduced simply because of fear. Something is wrong here.

Pool,

In our area, I can count about 3 who are still in the same office and they are becoming very miserly. Most have left offices and work out of the house. Most have laid off everyone and the only ones who are active now are the guys who are doing the work themselves.

We hav eone guy doing his own start-ups and maintenance and the service guys hate it. They are seeing builders take on pools who know veryl littles about water chemistry but, they have no money to pay a service guy and most service guys are not willing to give a builder any room to pay a bill they know he can't.

I was quoted $7,000 for the shotcrete work, approximately 30 yards of material. That works out to $233 per yard. Is the markup over ready mix real that high and is gunite that much cheeper? Posted above at $140 per yard.

-Jamie

If someone is paying 140 a yard for gunite,someone is not getting cement with their sand LOL! Gunite here is normally 180 a yard in socal. We had one company selling it for 140 but now they are out of business and builders are ripping out their shells that had them shoot their pools because of massive structural failure.You get what you pay for.

What are the costs associated with gunite vs. shotcrete and is gunite actually cheaper than shotcrete? I am asking the questions so I have a better understanding of the quotes I am getting. I am benchmarking from the cost of a yard of ready-mix.

From a capital investment, the cost of a gunite batch truck is much greater than the cost of the concrete pump and compressor equipment necessary for shotcrete. I assume labor is approximately the same for both gunite vs. shotcrete.

I understand that rebound is higher with gunite, thus more material is required.

Any educational comments appreciated.

Best,

Jamie