Finally got the quote from the 2nd Trane dealer: Furnace: XV95 + Honeywell VisionPro IAQ, new air supply ducting to upstairs bedroom, new cold air return on main - $5865. Furnace Model No. TDH2B080A9V3VA This has an output of 49,400/76,000 BTUH for stage 1 and 2. My current 80% AFUE Heil is rated 75,000 BTUH input, so this XV95 has at least 25% more heating capacity. Heat Pump Option: XL15i - $5905 complete. Model No. 4TWX5036B1000A (3 ton capacity, house is 2300 sq ft, 2-story) Installed with Trane Coil, Model No. 4TXXCB036BC3HCA (other dealer quoted a 4TXCB036BC3HCA, so maybe the above is a typo?) ARI Ref# 1384223 Cooling Capacity, 34800 EER (cooling), 11.40 SEER (cooling), 13.5 Heating Capacity @ 47F, 37200 Region IV HSPF (heating), 8.3 Heating Capacity @17F, 24200 This doesn't exactly look like a very stellar system combination for the price as none of the specs on the HP/coil combo would qualify it for the $1500 tax credit. I do believe the XV95 would qualify however. The other problem is I don't think the furnace or the HP would qualify for our local utility rebate of $350 since you can't get the rebate on a 90%+ furnace if installed as a backup system with a HP, and I don't think the HP listed here would qualify on it's own. Guess I would have to install the furnace and coil 1st, claim the rebate, then install the HP or AC if I felt like it. It's all too damn confusing. Pricing from all the dealers is pretty close, but the quotes are not exactly apples to apples so it is a bit hard to judge. I thought the XL15i had much better efficiency ratings that listed above. Think I need a quote on an AC unit instead of the HP as I still don't like the idea of the 95% AFUE furnace just sitting there most of the time. Would love any input or suggestions.

You should definitely be pricing with just heat pump. I live in NC which probably is a bit colder in the winter. We get down to the teens but only 15 nights a year maybe. Our winter average low is about 30. Under 10 degrees is definitely a news story. I have 5000 sq ft. I'm looking at my NG bill of $30. I have dual fuel and seer 16 heat pumps. Last winter was very cold and I spent about $700 with $200 being gas. This winter is going to be $120 in gas. My electric rates are similar to yours without the first 1000 discount. What is my point? Your gas usage will likely be $100 a year. Even if that were replaced with all heating strips, you'd be saving $200 a year or so. Since it would probable be 80% heat pump still, the dual fuel is only saving you $40 a year. So a $2500 furnace to save $40 a year seems a little crazy (on dollars alone). Turns out for me, it is probably worth it but only marginally so. I have a 90% (which you should be able to do as mine is basement with horizontal PVC exhaust). It probably saves $60-$70 on an average year. Probably cost $2000 (new house - I can't remember). What is that a 30 year payback (or never if you count interest or NG rates increase)? You do get some flexibility and you can setback at will with dual fuel. That is worth something.

We also have a dual fuel HP in ATL (13 SEER + 80% NG furnace). If you're going to invest that kind of $$ in a new system, plus pay to operate it for the foreseeable future, I'd do everything I can to ensure I got a quality install. Below is a link to a Southface Energy Institute fact sheet on blower door and duct blaster tests. They're an ATL non-profit. I highly recommend the info they have on their site. They might even be able to help or point you in the direction of a contractor to design your system and/or test your house/ducts. Ideally, you'd have the blower door done to feed into the Manual J sizing of the system. Then, after your new ducts were installed and sealed (but before insulating), you'd have the latter done to test how tight the duct system is. A brand new system, installed right, ought to leak at about 0.05cfm/sq ft of living space. That's only 125 cfm for your house. If at all possible, you want to maximize the amount of rigid ductwork, only allowing flex duct at the runouts (I'd get at least the Vision Pro w/ an outdoor sensor to control the switch to Aux heat. My understanding is that the IAQ version will handle the staging possibilities better than the 8000 series VP. It also costs more. I'd also be interested in getting a HP w/ good low temperature performance. Our gas bills have gotten smaller since getting the VP set up to control the switch. But on an old house, you're still going to use gas for the days in the teens/twenties like we've seen this winter. Anyway, food for thought. We have used ACS to do work on our system. They sell Carrier equipment. Here is a link that might be useful: Southface on blower doors and duct blaster testing

My experience lately has been that goodmans price has gone up but quality has stayed the same.... Can you buy one that doesn't have a leaking evap coil in the first 3 years? We made the mistake of putting a bunch them in 3 years ago because the warranty was so good. So far we are about 50/50 on the evaporator coil issue.