definitely go dual fuel. In your climate heatpumps work well. Those prices sound high, I'm not sure if it includes bringing the gas pipes into the house.

A heatpump only costs slightly more than the same model A/C and additionally needs a fancier thermostat.

It shouldn't cost 1,500 to 2,000 more for a heatpump. It should be like $500 to $1,000. Get the highest efficiency single stage heatpump.

How do you heat your water? You could consider having just straight heatpump with backup electricity strip. I don't think your climate gets too cold very often. With your cheap electric rates that would probably pay off. Plus you would avoid the monthly gas service fee.

kim
80% two stg var speed furnace paired with high eff heat pump. of course, properly sized. based on your winter climate a 95% eff furnace paired with HP would be overkill.

you will need to decide if gas is worth it depending on if you plan to use nat gas for other appliances in home-cooktop, HW heater, dryer, gas logs, etc.

if not go with electric backup heat strips.

these are my minimum specs for a new HP system. both outside and inside units should be replaced to have a properly matched system.

15 SEER, 12.5+ EER, 9 HSPF
best matching VS air handler
full BTUs in both cooling and heating for your rated size
R-410a refrigerant(same as Puron)
scroll compressor preferred
electronic demand defrost preferred
thermostat with "dehumidify on demand" feature
staged backup heat strips
new and correctly sized refrigerant lineset

I would only use authorized dealers for the various brands that provide quotes. see mfg websites.

I would look at Trane/AmStd,Rheem/Rudd,Carrier/Bryant.

I would not purchase a new HP system that did not have electronic demand defrost.

the similarly sized HP should cost no more than $750 in a high eff model vs the AC condenser model. Anyone telling you otherwise is misleading you.

ductwork both supply and return should be insulated minimum R8.

IMO
Good Luck!

Thanks everyone. The reason for the high efficiency gas furnace is because our current oil furnace exhausts to the side of the house and not through the chimney. Our codes dictate that a 80%eff gas furnace has to exhaust out the chimney that has to be lined.

We already have a gas line for other appliances. Seattle can get quite cold at times with nighttime temps usually around the low 40's or high 30's. That is why it would seem that the heat pump during the winter would be inefficient. Thanks for all the tips.

"high 30's" is not 'quite cold'. Heat pumps can operate down to the mid-20s. With dual-fuel and a thermostat with an outside temperature sensor, you can set the changeover point from HP to gas yourself for your own comfort. Usually that might be around 35F.

What are your electric rates now? They used to be pretty cheap when I lived there.

if you already have gas, then gas with heatpump. heatpumps are nice when not frigid outside.

Another question I had:
The only Lennox furnace that offers the variable speed fan (within my price range) is the G61V. This costs $1000 more than a single speed fan furnace (Model # ML193-36-70). Would the single speed fan affect the coefficiency of performance of the heat pump and if so, how much?

As I stated before, given the current exhaust setup, I can't get a lower efficiency gas furnace since it would have to be connected to the chimney.

Thanks everyone for you expert advise!

Others will have other opinions, but I see a variable fan as being most useful in removing humidity during the summer. The funny thing about Seattle is that when it is hot, it is not that humid. I think, in general, you'll spend more time with heating than with cooling. I don't think the loss of variable speed in your case will matter that much.

Others may think differently.

You should definitely be pricing with just heat pump.

I live in NC which probably is a bit colder in the winter. We get down to the teens but only 15 nights a year maybe. Our winter average low is about 30. Under 10 degrees is definitely a news story.

I have 5000 sq ft. I'm looking at my NG bill of $30. I have dual fuel and seer 16 heat pumps. Last winter was very cold and I spent about $700 with $200 being gas. This winter is going to be $120 in gas. My electric rates are similar to yours without the first 1000 discount.

What is my point? Your gas usage will likely be $100 a year. Even if that were replaced with all heating strips, you'd be saving $200 a year or so. Since it would probable be 80% heat pump still, the dual fuel is only saving you $40 a year. So a $2500 furnace to save $40 a year seems a little crazy (on dollars alone).

Turns out for me, it is probably worth it but only marginally so. I have a 90% (which you should be able to do as mine is basement with horizontal PVC exhaust). It probably saves $60-$70 on an average year. Probably cost $2000 (new house - I can't remember). What is that a 30 year payback (or never if you count interest or NG rates increase)? You do get some flexibility and you can setback at will with dual fuel. That is worth something.

yes $9800 is too much for an XP13 heatpump and gas furnace. REally, it should cost like $6000 and thats for a 15 seer (highest efficiency single stage heatpump) and gas furnace. Get some phone quotes. You make want to consider other brands.

Kim, I replied on your thread on a different site. Shoot me an email as I can help you get the best system, highest quality installation, at the most reasonable price.

josh at phoenixqualityheating dot com

OP I was wondering how your heating decision went. I'm kind of in the same boat as you were and trying to figure out if a Heat pump + furnace VS AC only + furnace is worth it. Looking at your calculations how did you come up with the COP for that unit? I have HSPF but can't seem to find a COP. Frustrating to figure out how much a unit should cost to run VS what the home has been using. efficiency # are meaning less without a base line to compare it to :(

The price of natural gas has dropped dramatically since this post was started 4 years ago. Start a new thread and post the cost of natural gas and electricity and you will get some good comments.