Weather peeps-check out this update for the storm in this area,so

13 years ago

I live in Fairfield-(for reference).

Long term...

..potentially near historic snow event over southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of

the forecast area on tap...

Overview...key features are showing up which increases confidence on

evolution of this winter storm system. Specifically...onshore data

supports Nowcast tools of rapid occlusion to occur with parent surface

low to slide NE...then north...then briefly northwest to near uin allowing

for heavier precipitation to occur. Initialization and verification

supports primary use of hi-res European model (ecmwf) with forcing inputs from GFS

and 06z 80km NAM-WRF into day 3. Went with blend of European model (ecmwf) and GFS

beyond day 4.

Key comment...this system appears will phase and nearly perfectly

with Canadian Alberta upper low...Arctic air...Gulf moisture and

shear profiles for maximum intensity of snow and thunder-snow over

at least southeast 1/3 of area. This is roughly like several small waves

coming together to form a big wave...another description is

constructive phasing or interference. If surface low occludes rapidly

enough...this would support need to upgrade to blizzard watch due

to isallobaric push to higher wind values of 5+ miles per hour. Occluding

low will also be vital to how much thunder-snow will occur in

forecast area.

Tuesday and Wednesday...rapidly deepening and occluding surface low

will slide to near stl at triple point with parent occluded low to

near uin. This will result in snow...heavy at times with

accumulation rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour over southeast 1/2 of area.

Thunder-snow will be possible far south by 21z and slide to at

least Highway 34 corridor through 09z. It may approach I-80 in

Illinois. Northwest winds will increase to 25 to 35 miles per hour with some gusts

to near 45 miles per hour resulting in nearly blizzard conditions. Went

through several local calculations and came up just short of

upgrading watch to a blizzard watch. Pass this concern to day

shift as a primary issue. Again occluding surface low will be key.

Snow amount gradients will be significant and went with middle of

the Road values with most solutions quantitative precipitation forecast values suggesting poor

entropy or energy dissipation issues. Heaviest snows should occur

+/- 30 miles either side of a Quincy Illinois Peoria Illinois to

near Kankakee line. Snow totals to range from 15 to 20 inches

south of a Sterling to quadrant city to Fairfield line. North of this

line to a Galena to Cedar Rapids to Marengo line 10 to 15 inches

are expected. North of this line second line the gradient of snow

will rapidly decrease to 5 to 10 inches with 5 to 7 inches with

this storm suggested north of Highway 20 near Manchester and

Independence.

Final Point...snow values of over 20 inches are possible if surface

occlusion is again significant enough and will pass this to day

shift along favored aforementioned heaviest snow track.

Will emphasize near blizzard conditions with potential thunder-snow

in chiwswdvn...or next Winter Storm Watch product.

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Comments (18)

tropicalzone7
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Wow it doesnt sound good at all. Stay prepared! It could be less snow than forecasted, or it could be even more! Went we broke a record with the 30 inches of snow we got after Christmas 2010, they were only predicting about 10-16 inches. We got 2 times that! So there is a chance that some places will end up with 40 inches of snow from this storm! Thats a scary number!
Looks like about 1/4 to 1/2 an inch of ice here and maybe 1-5 inches of snow. Then Wednesday changes over to all rain.
Good luck! Keep us updated!
-Alex
User
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Locally, storm is very complex. Difficult to guesstimate precip amounts and types--everything from snow, sleet, ice pellets, freezing drizzle, rain, freezing rain...did I leave anything out!? Better not be heavy rain tomorrow or I'll need a canoe to get to work as all storm drains are covered in glacial mounds. Not terribly cold and no wind so far, but we are soooo over winter it's not funny.

I heard earlier that this storm is the largest storm (in terms of size) in North America since 1951--pretty amazing! There was a news story last night about how EXTREME precipitation events have become much more common worldwide (Philippines, Australia, Europe, Brazil, etc..)--I missed a bit of the story, but apparently there has been a worldwide increase of water vapor throughout the atmosphere. It was reported that the increase was up to 4% but that this alone does not explain the magnitude of the increase in precip (involving both rain and snow). Guessing that the part of the story I missed had to do with changes in storm and general circulation patterns. I'd be interested in reading about the story if anyone has more info and references. Be careful out there!
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islandbreeze
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
As of last night, they're predicting this storm will affect the entire lower peninsula of Michigan, and here in Southern Michigan we're forecast to get up to 16" of snow. News people are saying it will be the biggest storm we have had in years. Then the bottom drops out and we will have the following 2 days with a high of 9 and lows of -2 both days. It's looking very ugly.
Loveplants2 8b Virginia Beach, Virginia
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Hello Everyone,

Does this storm make the hair on your arms go straight up?

Mine are...

I am really worried about all of the ice...

Be careful everyone...please keep us updated!!

Laura in VB
jimhardy
Original Author
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service quadrant cities Iowa Illinois
704 am CST Tuesday Feb 1 2011

Update...
verification at 12z indicates storm system is rapidly intensifying
at a rate as fast or faster than projections. Comparing data...plus
using numerous techniques suggests the system may not only be
stronger...but could occlude or wrap up more than planned back
toward our area. If this occurs...this could result in even higher
snow totals...snow-fall rates and possible thunder-snow over at
least the southeast portions of the area. It also may result in
slightly higher wind speeds for more severe blizzard conditions.
This risk should be confirmed in the next 3 to 6 hours.

No changes are planned...but indications clearly support this will
not only be a major storm of near historic proportions...but may
be a bit stronger for at least our southeast 1/2 locations than is currently
forecasted.

Individuals should monitor this situation for possible updates on
this potentially dangerous situation. ..Nichols..

Southeast...hey ,that's where I live! 0:
mike-jaramillo
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Hey all goodmorning. Here in chicago it snowed maybe an inch or 2 last night. Nothing major just lots and lots of wind. The news is predicting the end of days tonight lol, they say from 4" to 30" inches of snow, what kind of forcast is that? I think over all we have had a warmer than average winter. If it does snow alot Ill practice my chicago snow ritual of shoveling and salting my parking spot and putting 2 chairs and a 4x4 to hold my space.
jimhardy
Original Author
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
The monster is coming Mike 0:

It is getting very windy here and has begun to snow!

I also noticed that it's in the 20s here and only 7F
on the west side of the state.
jimhardy
Original Author
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
... BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY.

* SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES... WITH STRONG WINDS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL END OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO MORE THAN 20 INCHES.

* WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY MIDDAY TODAY... INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST... THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND FALLING POWDERY SNOW WILL RESULT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS... INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW... STRONG WINDS AND VISIBILITIES BELOW A QUARTER MILE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
jimhardy
Original Author
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
I just noticed on accuweather.com.

The radar for my area shows so much wind rapping around this storm that
there is lake effect moisture/snow being dragged over a hundred miles inland!
User
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
It looks like it's the rest of the country's chance to experience the winter storms the North East has been fighting since some time in December (seems like an eternity at this point). I see a few 40's popping up in the extended and that sounds wonderful at this point! It looks like Mother Nature's greatest wrath has shifted westward (at least for the time being). No Shangri-La here, currently have an ice storm warning in effect.
mike-jaramillo
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Well jim at 3 pm it started snowing for about 30 mins. It stopped snowing got foggy out and windy at the same time. How thats possible I dont know. Only 2 maybe 3 inches fell weres there 30" of snow lol. The snow stopped but the wind is blowing so hard all the snow had fell is blowing around and around.
mike-jaramillo
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Morning new lol well theres snow everywhere I havent seen snow like this in atleast few years. not to bad drifts have cars under snow lol.
jimhardy
Original Author
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
I walked home to check on the palms last night Mike-
it was like an Arctic wasteland-unbelievable!

Half of my G-house collapsed,it was a good thing I
checked it,I think part of it had to be laying on the space heater.

I turned of all the power-there is really no reason to heat with that
much snow on everything.

Supposed to be -12 tonight,maybe.

I figure the snow will insulate everything-gotta leave it as it lays
until the lows get into the teens again in a few days.

This is about the time of year when I question whether I will continue with this hobby-
SPRING usually helps me forget all the white stuff pretty quick-

there is a lot to forget on the ground right now,I would guess 15"+ but there's no way to know exactly.......

Forgot to mention,the rest of it(G-house) collapsed this morning )-:
Loveplants2 8b Virginia Beach, Virginia
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Jim...I'm sorry to hear about the collapse of your greenhouses...Im sure there is alot of work to be done once the temps rise for you...Just wanted to let you know
that we are thinking of you...and hoping that you and your family are safe...trees and plants can always be replaced!!!

Take care and stay safe...

Laura in VB
tropicalzone7
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Im also sorry to hear about your greenhouse collapsing. Hopefully the plants in there will survive the cold, but snow is a great insulator so it should survive. Apparently its suppose to warm up by the end of the month. I hope so!!
We had the worst ice storm in years here today. Everything was covered in ice from the trees to the street. Fortunately it all melted by 11am or so. In a way its good that you got the snow because at least it will insulate your plants (but then again if it didnt snow your protection would be fine). Hope it all works out. Keep us updated!
-Alex
User
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Here's a cause for optimism in this awful winter--I noticed that despite a subfreezing 'high' temp today, there was a lot of melting. The sun is getting much stronger now. My Trachys look good--except for the damage I caused on one due to the da@n X-mas lights which get much hotter than I though (used the little ones for a couple of nights). Thinking of putting in more Trachys next near. Deer have been at it this year on plants they would normally not bother (holly and Photina). For whatever reason, they never touch palms no matter the snow or the cold!
jimhardy
Original Author
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
Thanks for the kind words guys/gals(-:

Tomorrow I will go inside(try to)and survey the damage-
I have to admit I am tempted to leave the foot/+ of snow
on top of it and let it insulate it until "spring" arrives.
tropicalzone7
13 years ago
last modified: 9 years ago
There's probably much more damaging cold left in the winter so its probably best to try and fix the protection. Only 3 or 4 more weeks and they should be about to be uncovered. You just got to get them through that and they will be on there way to summer!
-Alex

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