AccuWeather Winter Forecast

17 years ago

AccuWeather.com Issues Preliminary Winter Outlook

El NiÃ±o's Influence Points to Milder Start, Colder End Than Normal for Heating-Oil-Dependent Northeast

(State College, PA - September 19, 2006) - AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi predicts that the coming winter is shaping up to be quite different than last year's. The El NiÃ±o pattern that has noticeably impacted the 2006 hurricane season will lead to colder temperatures for the northeastern U.S. and Midwest, and a milder winter for the West Coast.

As outlined in Bastardi's preliminary seasonal outlook-the full 2006-2007 AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast will be released in mid-October-the winter in the Northeast and Midwest is expected to begin mild before turning significantly colder in January and February as cold air pours down from Canada. Overall, New York City and Boston are expected to average slightly below normal for the three-month winter period of December through February. The winter along the East Coast and Gulf Coast will be marked by stormy weather, because of the pattern created by the El NiÃ±o that formed this summer and was identified by Bastardi in the late spring.

El NiÃ±o and the East Coast Winter

An El NiÃ±o-a cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters-directs strong wind currents that tend to hinder hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin during the summer, and lead to a more active southern jet stream in the winter, which creates a wetter-than-normal pattern for the South and Southeast U.S. This precipitation works its way up the East Coast, bringing more storms to the region. "While the East Coast will most likely experience more precipitation, it is too early to tell whether the majority of this precipitation will be in the form of rain or snow," said Bastardi. "Timing will be the key in the major cities of the East Coast. Cold air from the north arriving too early or too late would lead to more rain and less snow."

Added Bastardi, "Given the overall pattern and the water temperature profile we expect, the region will likely see one or two major Nor'easters."

Winter's Effect on Energy Prices

"While temperatures in the Northeast will start out warmer than normal, a shift to colder weather during the final two months of winter will result in slightly below normal temperatures for the three-month period.....'

Here is a link that might be useful: Are you ready?

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Comments (5)

diggingthedirt
17 years ago
> the El NiÃ±o that formed this summer and was identified by Bastardi in the late spring.

Huh? Is this fellow taking credit for noticing the El NIno developing? That's rich! The climate and forecast community is a pretty big group, somehow I don't think a guy from accuweather.com was the one who spotted it first, OR confirmed its development!

Anyway, he sounds *a little* more concrete than the old farmers' almanac, but still pretty vague.

Sorry, my reply is a bit off topic, but that's life.
fbot
17 years ago
I find it funny that they even have "long-range forecasters" when the regular weather guy can't even predict tomorrow correctly. The hurricane prediction for the season was also just downgraded from the overblown "long-range" forecast from a few months ago. Bottom line: Mother Nature is a fickle gal.
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I'm not complaining about the heat this summer either. Last two or three years were the coldest summers this part of the state has had for decades. My DD debates me this, but I read the farm reports from corn harvests. I also know that for two years there were no ripe tomatoes unless they were picked and brought inside. This summer reminds me of the hot summers of my early childhood when I'd lay on the linoleum of the kitchen floor and my mother would fall over me when she was cooking. I knew, just like the dogs did, it was cooler there if you didn't lay too long in one spot. LOL. We still haven't had many hot nights. Mostly high sixties. I even love hot nights, when I'd take a glass of iced tea and sit out under the stars. But, the humidity has been pretty rank, despite the fact we need rain. It hasn't been nearly as bad as the summer of my seventeenth year when I was working between my Freshman and sophomore years at a lodge in the wilds of the Ozarks. It was so constantly wet in the air toadstools were growing in my bathroom. I carefully cleaned around it because I thought it was cool. That's what seventeen year olds do.
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I think that the Farmer's Almanac is predicting a colder than normal winter, with good winter precipitation for our region. The NOAA probably won't release theirs until Mid-October. I for one am hoping for a nice cold winter with lots of snow (but not ice). It's about time winter lived up to its billing.
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I am too lazy and cheap to risk re-buying or re-planting! I am waiting.... BTW, Christie, I checked my B & B salvia and they are definitely coming through the mulch in about three spots. Mine have condiderably spread over the years and now cover a 3-foot or so area. I planted them right next to the paved drive so I think it acts as a heat sink for them. I dropped by the Master Gardener Display Gardens in town yesterday to photograph the apple tree expalier before they leafed out....might try a modified version with my dward apple trees. Their bulbs were beautiful and the hyacinths smelled heavenly. I must plant some for next year...I love the blue ones. They have planted some cole crops in the veggie garden, looked like purple cabbage and others.
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prairiemoon2 z6b MA
17 years ago
Another example of what you were saying fbot...

On Monday, Oct 2nd, they were predicting that Thursday night it was going to be 32 degrees, as the week went on they changed it so that by yesterday, Thursday the 5th of Oct, they were predicting a low of 40 overnight. At 6:30am I checked my outdoor thermometer and it was 48 degrees. [g]

I was going to cut my annuals for bouquets before a frost and glad I left them, since they are really pretty in the yard. :-)
ellen_s
17 years ago
I read this to my husband and he laughed about it..."what a surprise, well this winter in New England will start out warm, then get colder, then get really cold, then get warmer...and we'll have at least 2 good storms".

I think I'll apply for a high paying job at AccuWeather :-)
rockman50
17 years ago
I agree. It sounds about as vague as my horoscope: "Today would be a good day to talk to family members". Yeah, big surprise: December will be warmer than January and February and we might even have a few storms. Wow. Better stock up on canned goods NOW!!! The climate signal related to El Nino in the NE is very weak or non-existent. What that means is that unlike the west coast, where winter storminess is strongly linked to El Nino years, there does not appear to be any clear statistical link between El Nino and temperature and/or precipitation in the NE. We are influenced much more by the North Atlantic Oscillation (or NAO). Again, the only honest long term predictions, in my opinion, are made by the Feds (Climate Prediction Center). And notice that there latest forecast is for a slightly higher than 50-50 chance of a warmer than normal Dec-Feb period for New England. Link is provided below.

Here is a link that might be useful: Climate Prediction Center

AccuWeather Winter Forecast

Comments (5)

diggingthedirt

fbot

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prairiemoon2 z6b MA

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