I'm not complaining about the heat this summer either. Last two or three years were the coldest summers this part of the state has had for decades. My DD debates me this, but I read the farm reports from corn harvests. I also know that for two years there were no ripe tomatoes unless they were picked and brought inside. This summer reminds me of the hot summers of my early childhood when I'd lay on the linoleum of the kitchen floor and my mother would fall over me when she was cooking. I knew, just like the dogs did, it was cooler there if you didn't lay too long in one spot. LOL. We still haven't had many hot nights. Mostly high sixties. I even love hot nights, when I'd take a glass of iced tea and sit out under the stars. But, the humidity has been pretty rank, despite the fact we need rain. It hasn't been nearly as bad as the summer of my seventeenth year when I was working between my Freshman and sophomore years at a lodge in the wilds of the Ozarks. It was so constantly wet in the air toadstools were growing in my bathroom. I carefully cleaned around it because I thought it was cool. That's what seventeen year olds do.

Hey Mike: The forecast on the Weather Channel site was from October when it was believed that an El Nino event would occur. However, it did not. The NWS states that the ocean is in an ENSO neutral condition now which means the water temperature is neither warmer (El Nino) nor colder (La Nina) than average. One forecasting factor that I did not include in the original post is the following statement: "A significant wildcard in the upcoming winter outlook is the uncertainty associated with the phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which the majority of the current literature indicates loses predictability quite rapidly beyond a few weeks." Without getting into a technical description of the AO, if you remember several years ago when we had the freezes here, it was the AO that pulled a significant amount of cold air from Canada into the US due to a change in the location of the Jetstream. Below is a link to a good, relatively non-technical definition and discussion. The broken forecasts of several years ago had significantly understated the impact of the AO on the winter weather. At that time, the AO was "negative" (see graphic below). Anyway, the temperatures and precipitation patterns here in Tucson certainly support the revised NWS forecast. We are between 10-15 degrees above average with very, very little rain. One question to the folks here in Tucson is how much are you watering your trees now? Regards, P. Here is a link that might be useful: Arctic Oscillation

I like the snow, it just means more precipitation to me. Lake Michigan is about 28 inches below average water level now, we need more moisture. Other than that, I must be the only person on earth that really doesn't pay attention to long term weather forecasting. The weather will do what it will and I can't control that. Elery says that meteorologists can predict the weather three days out, more than that and it's just guessing. Since his job was directing power plants to make power and then deciding how much would be bought or sold, the weather had a big impact on his decisions. I go where I have to, stay home if I don't have to go. I worry about my girls if I know they are out in a storm, but Ashley only works 4 blocks from her home. Amanda does have a 6 mile drive but she's pretty good with the Tahoe. Last year the forecasters here said we were going to get slammed with snow. We didn't, it was one of the mildest winters in my memory. A few years before that it was supposed to be an extremely mild winter and we got something like 160 inches of snow. It's the only job where you can be wrong half the time and still be considered really good at it! Annie

Hermitian, who the hell asked you? You're not looking for more company are you? Hermitian is indeed looking for company, but we are the wrong gender! I have seen photos of his place and I think he needs our help though. It's much too nice for one guy. We would need a few weeks for assessment of the place, before we could even give any advice. Hermitian appears to be somewhat of a good cook too, so as long as he feeds us, we will do it out of the goodness of our hearts. Then the postal abbreviation can be changed to MZ, better than MO, which of course is a phonetic reference to one of The Three Stooges. OK, now I will never forget MO as the correct abbreviation. My brother in law is from MO, and well if the shoe fits! A few years ago I saw that arch. It is impressive and the building of it is funny. When they got to the top, it didn't line up! Ha! They figured a way. First thing they did is fire Larry and Curly! They hired some guy named Shemp. Later they added another Curly Joe.