Mayo has a website that shows their predictions for the next two weeks. Looks pretty dire.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/map

I did read an article that showed both in India and the UK, it subsided somewhat after two or three months. They aren't fully sure why. I can't find that article again. Suggestions of why it subsided in India was there was no way to get care in hospital, so they stayed home, and that kept it at bay. But it's a guess.

Depends on what people here will do...

The experts can't sort this, what hope do I have? Waiting for Delta to pass and praying we don't get Delta Plus ... oops, too late we got that one already.

Rob, thank you for that link. Very informative!

I think that entire nations that are too poor to purchase the vaccine will become sources of new mutations until the wealthier nations send vaccines to all. This would be an act of self protection as well as humane generosity.

Wow - that is a really useful map rob - thanks so much!

You can see states broken down by county too.

And I've been feeling extra on edge today over this surge. Schools started today and I can't help but think they may not be open for long.

Waiting for Delta to pass might be a little more concerning for those of us who got Pfizer. Mayo is reporting that it’s only 42% effective against Delta, which seems to validate Israel’s earlier reports of 39%.

https://mol.im/a/9885013

I read there won't be herd immunity now since variants will appear and vaccines can't be manufactured quick enough. A scary thought.

Not based on any expertise, just my own thoughts, my guess is that by August 2023 covid-19 will be in the same category as the flu. That is, many of us will get an annual vaccine/booster for the latest variants, but covid will be popularly viewed as a "real" threat to only medically fragile people. And like the flu, it will sometimes kill even the young and previously healthy -- because, it IS a serious illness.

This is for the USA and wealthy countries. Poorer countries will have it worse for longer.

It will last long enough to kill off all of those who still have a death wish. Simple solution - get the shots and wear a mask when going out. How easy is that? Listen to those who speak the truth from their ICUs begging people to get vaccinated for God's sake!

I don't see an end to it. How are we going to ever get rid of it when most of the world has no money for vaccines and the greedy, super rich drug companies won't give the formula to make it to those countries? It will just keep mutating and maybe we'll get lucky and it will mutate itself out of serious harm for us humans or get worse and just wipe us off the planet.

foas....really! Geez! We got Pfizer. I had heard that Pfizer was predicting it was SO good, only one shot was needed, two was just making it last "longer". Now we have new information.....to the contrary? This has at least two more years......I agree.

Delta Has Changed the Pandemic Endgame:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/

Delta’s extreme transmissibility negates some of the community-level protection that vaccines offer. If no other precautions are taken, Delta can spread through a half-vaccinated country more quickly than the original virus could in a completely unvaccinated country. It can even cause outbreaks in places with 90 percent vaccination rates but no other defenses. Delta has “really rewound the clock,” Shweta Bansal, an infectious-disease ecologist at Georgetown University, told me. “Communities that had reached safety are in danger again.” Vaccines can still reduce the size and impact of its surges, turning catastrophic boils into gentler simmers. But the math means that “there’s not really a way to solve the Delta problem through vaccination alone,” Murray said.

Nicole - you do realize that we are basically dealing with a new virus now? The vaccines were formulated to protect against the original Covid-19 virus.

terezosa....Yes....but..." Vaccines can still reduce the size and impact of its surges,".

I have friends that are out traveling around staying in motels. One family's in a motorhome. I'm not feeling that safe! But....I'm glad their living their lives....then ya have to look at it that way....

WRT the Pfizer efficacy studies getting press, according to Eric Topol, MD, the data are inconclusive as to whether the decline is from the shot losing potency due to age or whether Moderna was actually better. Crucially, those who received the Pfizer doses are still not getting hospitalized at any serious rate.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol

As for the greed of pharma not sharing the recipe, mRNA shots are not easy to produce. Very few facilities in the US and Europe have the ability to manufacture these medicines. The onus is on rich governments to share with the rest of the world.

An article from the NIH on the challenges of wider manufacturing:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7987532/

My answer from earlier disappeared. Here it is again.

WRT the Pfizer efficacy studies getting press, according to Eric Topol, MD, the data are inconclusive as to whether the decline is from the shot losing potency due to age or whether Moderna was actually better. Crucially, those who received the Pfizer doses are still not getting hospitalized at any serious rate.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol

As for the greed of pharma not sharing the recipe, mRNA shots are not easy to produce. Very few facilities in the US and Europe have the ability to manufacture these medicines. The onus is on rich governments to share with the rest of the world.

An article from the NIH on the challenges of wider manufacturing:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7987532/

Everything I have read says that break through for any of the vaccine is still only .08%, well within the predicted limits.

The article from The Atlantic that Bookwoman posted above is sobering.

Zalco - I see your earlier post just above mdln's post.

mdln's article is disappointing, and yet, I knew they would. They don't care. It's a political game for them and refuse to do what is right. It'skilling kids and putting them in ICUs too and their agenda is more important? Whatever. I would never do that. Heck, I'd mask my toddler, so what do I know?

Lone Jack, that is so strange. I do not see the post on devices I am not logged in on.

You develop antibodies to the Covid virus when you receive the vaccine you develop antibodies to each variant as well. Your immune system doesn't differentiate . This is the same as saying a medicine only works on brown cats but not on white or grey or black cats. It just doesn't work that way. So the myth of the Delta not responding to the current vaccine is just that...a myth. c

foas, I was told by my doctor to not get the Pfizer vaccine, to get the Moderna, and she seemed to be very adamant about it. Now, I'm happy to know Moderna is more effective than Pfizer.

You develop antibodies to the Covid virus when you receive the vaccine you develop antibodies to each variant as well. Your immune system doesn't differentiate . This is the same as saying a medicine only works on brown cats but not on white or grey or black cats. It just doesn't work that way. So the myth of the Delta not responding to the current vaccine is just that...a myth.

I do not think it works that way, antibodies are fairly specific. Is the Delta different enough so the antibody will not work? Well, that is the question that scientists are trying to answer. It does appear that there is some efficacy and that people are not becoming seriously ill after full vaccination, but then again we all know that further variants will be coming down the road at some point.

But variants can be different enough to need the body prompted to make antibodies to that variant. Hence updated flu vaccines yearly.

In this case the variant is the difference of 1-2 proteins on the same Covid-sars virus. The difference is not significant when talking about gaining immunity and the usefulness of the current vaccine. . My DH was a pharmacologist and biologist and chemist for more than 55 years. We have discussed this extensively. Of course as times goes on there will be developments as there are with all of these processes. But at this time there is NO reason to suspect that the current vaccine isn't good enough and certainly WAY better than nothing.