Few thoughts:

Seems rather unusual to have three out of the last 5 or so years in at least mild drought in New England, a place that usually isn't drought-prone.

The "horse latitudes" thing makes sense. The Shenandoah proper of course is in a mild rain shadow (obviously nothing like the ones out West!), and even here east of the mountains, we have a VERY mild rain shadow here, that is somewhat mitigated by Atlantic and Gulf moisture, but it seems that the area from Philly northward is more strongly mitigated by said moisture than the strip from Richmond to Baltimore.

We often see storms die as they cross the Blue Ridge, but sometimes they flare back up almost right away. It seems anecdotally that a S or SE wind will help them stay together or even strengthen, but a W or NW wind dries them out as they dross.

We do tend to run a bit drier in July - September, than areas both north and south of here.

As far as whether there were more thunderstorms in the past, the NOAA National Climatic Data Center could probably answer that, "thunderstorm days" are typically recorded.

I'm guessing the OP is feeling better now. NE Maryland and SE Penna. are receiving a drenching as I write and we are under a severe thunderstorm watch until midnight.

"I'm guessing the OP is feeling better now."

Sam, we are about six inches below normal precipitation locally. Last night there was about .5 inches of rain..., which did help reduce wild fire risk. I see a line of storms to the west this evening, but soooo often the rains this season have moved to the south of the greater NJ/NYC Metro Area. Into the extended forecast, I see nothing but sun, sun, sun..., moderate high temps (into the mid or upper 80's), decently low humidity..., but not much rain. GARDENERS realize the anomaly, but most people are clueless and love all the perfect beach weather, including for the long Independence Day weekend.

P.S., David, the Great Lakes have almost no effect on my regional area..., aside from "Lake Effect" snows which can bring a dusting to 1/4 inch of snow. (ALL the big snow storms are southern storms riding the Gulf Stream north.) Long Island Sound, and off course, the Atlantic are bigger players.

"the Great Lakes have almost no effect on my regional area...,"

No I wasn't talking about an obvious effect like lake effect snows. It's not well studied but I think by influencing the formation of convection patterns over say, the Ohio Valley, they could influence "downstream" rain from Pittsburgh all the way to Boston. From this article:

Danard and McMillan (1974) estimated that 48 percent of moisture evaporated from the Great Lakes remains in the atmosphere as increased water vapor and clouds downwind of the lakes.

"...In a similar procedure for summer, Strong (1972) documented the formation of anticyclonic conditions over the lakes due to cooler lake waters."

and...

More recently, Sousounis and Fritsch (1994) provide a case study and numerical evidence that the lakes not only alter the speed and direction of the surface wind fields, but also alter the structures and paths of weather systems moving through the region.

So if the Lakes are adding moisture to the air in summer, and at the same time preventing development of local convection, it seems the moisture has to go somewhere and the prevailing downstream area in summer varies from SW PA over to SW New England and up to Montreal if that is the way winds are blowing. In other words imagine if they were just a vast plain, clearly the climate over a huge area would be drier, winter and summer. For example compare to the midwest, where one reason droughts get out of hand and last so long sometimes is because vegetation (agricultural) actually recharges humidity into the air. If it all dies off from drought, even if it rains, much more of the rain is lost to the ground or flowing down rivers. OTOH, with the Lakes their moisture can never _not be there_ on the surface of the earth.

Although, even in winter with the Lake Effect snows, it seems self-evident that the Great Lakes slightly mitigate cold air even beyond the point that it is snowing, and help prevent us from being more like eastern Siberia. Why? In one of the cold winters there was an awesome time lapse video of snow forming very quickly over Buffalo...I'll try to find it. Point is, you can see it's just an amazing amount of water they are adding to the atmosphere. But the following day when we hit 3F down here, the dewpoint was somewhere around 0F. Now, there wasn't enough moisture in the air for it to be snowing here...and sure some cold air manages to overrun the top of the lakes. But I bet that dewpoint, and the resultant nightly low, would have been even lower if such a huge amount of moisture hadn't been added to the air from the Lakes. You have a big lug of cold air streaming down from the North Pole: no mountains to block it. Even if the sun warms it up during the day, the only way to keep it from cooling off again at night is to add moisture. That's what the lakes do. Most people don't know Lake Effect snows can reach as far south as western Maryland. Again though, I don't think many climatologists have actually studied these questions, in depth, because it's not as exciting as say, tornado development in the TX panhandle or whatnot. More of a "how many angels on the head of a pin" type question, unlikely to get research dollars.

David, the lake-effect snow can reach at least as far southeast as Boone, NC! Easily and fairly often got south to southwest VA when I lived down there. It also moderates arctic air well to the southeast by producing some cloudiness at night (mostly in the mountains) & reducing radiational cooling.

Oh, and on rare occasions, a cold due-northerly wind can produce "bay-effect" snow in the Tidewater, VA area.

Boone? Wow, didn't know that! But maybe that's a once every few years event; it seems like hitting western MD happens more regularly, at least a couple times a winter. And, though it's not a great amount of snow, the fact it is snowing at all there means the dewpoint has been brought way up from what it otherwise would be.

I did know about the Bay effect snows.

Hills are browning out as well as lawns that aren't irrigated. I have also seen many trees with yellow and/or dropping leaves with no good indication of rain in the extended range on the weather models >=(

NH is just ending its ninth month with below average precip. I've been watering consistently for about 2 weeks, running sprinklers on gardens, and even enough on the lawns to keep them alive in our sandy soil. The corn field next door is turning blue in the better drained patches, so definitely drought-stressed even though it is high enough to mostly hide a deer - we saw just a head with only brief flashes of its back. Last night we got about a half inch according to the rain gauge, so that may help hold things for a bit, though more moisture is definitely needed. I worry about fire danger with the Fourth approaching.

Seems we here in the western Great Lakes are doing well by comparison. I don't have the exact datum, but I'm sure we're up (on the year to date) by some 3 or 4 inches. Not bad, and given the earlier drought-ish predictions, I'll take it! Of course, as I said in my earlier post, it's still early. For my part-and I'm a died-in-the-wool lover of rain and snowfall-I've got to wonder what the net effect will be up here. Almost......almost seems like more moisture in general is making it up here, even when the northeast is blocked by high pressure. In fact, in the near term past, that mechanism-the very same one responsible for some of the dryness in the NE, has allowed for full moisture penetration of the warm slot in pre-frontal segments of frontal systems. Thus, even tonight, although it's a weak front and in no way expected to be major, we are dry today, dewpoint probably in the 50s somewhere, yet enough humidity will rapidly be drawn northward to allow for at least a pretty good chance of T-storms tomorrow/tomorrow night. And that's on top of a number of heavy events in the last couple of weeks.

One thing I know for certain-when I next get up to my land, the lane down the field will be hard to make out, our little camping area back in the clearing will be head-high with vegetation, and I'll likely have a full day with the string trimmer. Things get very green and rank in a hurry there.

We're doing OK in Central Maryland at the moment. Early June was dry, so we might finish off the month about -0.5", but we've had good, frequent showers and storms the last couple weeks. Lawns still look good. For the year we're within a quarter inch of normal right now. Based on the forecast through tomorrow, June will end with about 3.25" of rain, which is about 0.7" below normal.

I'm slightly worried about the long-term - esp since there are "D0" (abnormally dry) areas around us, esp. to the north, that appear to be expanding.

We're heading up to MA this weekend, so I'll be on the lookout for noticeable signs of dryness in the vegetation up there.

Well there was some rain in two shots (both in the middle of the night, so did not witness the rare phenomenon)..., maybe up to a half inch in each bout. So, temporarily I can relax a bit (there are woods about, so it does become a concern).

Yeah, according to the Drought Monitor site there is drought from New England to Lancaster, Pa., and another area of drought in northern Georgia/Alabama and other areas of the Southeast. I still don't have a feel for the character of this Summer (and some of the long range accounts seem diametrically opposed).

If I lived in Lancaster County its the mayflies that I would be worried about :)

Our friend from NW Arkansas told me he has an over 8" rain deficit this year to date and I should be pretty damn close to the same. I have noticed a LOT of trees including sumac have browned out and defoliated since my last update. The drought monitor is pretty useless imo if I'm not even considered in drought but haven't had an inch of rain cumulative from all the "rain" events the past two months...

Wow, if trees are already defoliating in JUNE - that's bad. The only time I remember a drought that bad was in Ohio in 1988. I remember on the 4th of July, beech trees in particular looked like they usually do in late October.

That drought was very severe (and Akron had the most 100-degree days in a single month IIRC that July), but ended quickly - July had almost 6" of rain (all of which fell after the 16th of the month) and August and Sept were normal to above. I vaguely remember some trees flushing new growth, which was singed in October before naturally hardening off, due to unusually hard freezes that month.

1988 was the worst drought I ever experienced. And it was hot!

"1988 was the worst drought I ever experienced. And it was hot!"

LOL, I VIVIDLY remember that summer of '88. Yeah, we had Egyptian-like heat here in the Northeast..., (assume it was dry too, but I don't remember as I was not really into heavy gardening then. I was in Miami for part of that Summer where it was also quite hot but even worse here in NJ, when I returned. I had purchased an Australian tree fern down there and brought it all the way home with me. Like an idiot, I put it on my west-facing deck. It was dead in maybe an hour.

For what it's worth..., the Weather Channel is now predicting a HOT summer for the Great Lakes and Midwest, with the Northeast moving into above normal heat for mid to late Summer.

My most enduring image of that summer was taking down a couple of red oaks that had just up and died of oak wilt, in one of our parks. It was just too hot for that sort of work.

Yeah, my usual go-to online weather is AccuWeather and that is in line with their long-range view. So far, it has averaged out above the long-term highs for months now, but precip has been good since a dry April.

Davidrt, the Great Lakes are also t-storm killers in spring. Same reason-a cooler air mass and an almost permanent little bubble of high pressure. By September of course, some degree of role reversal can occur.

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY EVERYONE..., G_D BLESS AMERICA!!

Up over 6 inches for June, after last night's surprisingly heavy rainfall. Surprising in that it didn't seem to be all that impressive of a frontal system, but once again, really delivered for us.

Going to stay dry up here now for a few days-probably into late next week. But we can handle it with all the great rains we've gotten.

Tom, please take your rain bragging to another topic. K thx

;p

I know....then watch, it'll get dry here and I'll finally go quiet!

Here's a far more typical mid-summer radar pattern. Looks like subtropix might get some help on his deficit. Maybe NHbabs too.

Okay, so have all the severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado watches and warnings, we had a front come through. No thunder, no wind and maybe 0 .5 inches of rain. Better than nothing, but still in a 7.5" rain deficit, and nothing but perfect "beach" weather into the extended 7 day plus. No one will be complaining due to the summer/holiday season, and there will be no drought warnings issues, but still concerned here. Happy Independence Day, just watch those pyrotechnics if you are in an arid area this 4th.

G-d bless America!

June ended with almost normal rainfall, about .25" short. Big surprise. Temps though were way above normal, I recorded 20 days at 90F or higher at my place, and most were mid to upper 90's.

All the row crops and pastures are still green, as are residential lawns, but the soil surface is dry. The basic pattern remains, I'm not optimistic but who knows? At least the indicator trees, the ones that show moisture stress first, tulip poplar and river birch, are still green.

Interesting, ken. Just like the last 2 summers, temps here in the country (only 900' elevation but away from urban effects) just cannot get to 90F IF it's moist and/or fronts pass thru once or twice a week. So it's gotten to 89F here several times, but not 90F. Nights are rarely "warm" here in a frost hollow -- mild or cool is the best description.

What do we all think is the most rapid dryer of the soil and vegetation (if taken separately)-heat, or lack of rainfall. Now I know that question contains a serious logical error, since I'm purposely not putting a time limit on the period during which precip could occur....so another crack at it would be: For where you live, what general weather phenomenon seems to really dry things up, to the point that there are noticeable effects on whatever vegetation you may be looking at-a generally dry "period"....or days around or above 90F? I know what I think-that it's the hot days-and I'm sure, the warm nights-that really puts the hurt on everything. Even after an extended period without significant rainfall, it seems that many plants common to our landscapes have the ability to hold onto most of what they've got. But open the blast furnace door....and it can rain almost daily and still barely keep up.

All of which also shows that I'm basing my vote largely on conditions/plants typical of roughly the northeastern quadrant of the US. As such, YMMV.

steady rain here, fireworks cancelled. More rain forecast for later on this week. It may well turn hot & dry later on this month but so far a beautiful summer.

2.5" this weekend. Woo-hoo!

Tom, the heat will have us dried out by next week. Mid to upper 90's starting tomorrow with heat indexes in the 105* range

I'm in MA this week (NW of Boston about ten mi from NH border.)

It is DRY up here. Lawns are brown as straw.

There was some rain last night (it only rains at night now), not sure on amounts as it has been of a sporadic nature (i.e., where your backyard is). Wisconsin, drought feeds on itself; the drier it is, the easier it is for any given day to turn out warmer than normal, and the warmer it is the higher the evaporation and transpiration are. I think the local drought was set in motion by the lack of normal precip in April and May, and maybe lack of winter precip too (including snow cover). The heat would be less of an issue is ground waters where more normal because a lot the sun's heat would be used on evaporating water in a wetter regime; which would lead to more cloudiness and more conductive thunderstorm precip. I think the only think that is going to change it is tropical storm moisture or the coming Winter storm season.

j0nd, indeed, that'll frizzle-fry everything. Falls in line with my notion-that it is heat above all else that really dries things out. Guess one needn't be a genius to come up with that theorem!

At the risk of being (rightfully) accused of rain-bragging yet again, looks like another frontal system is set to wallop us beginning tonight. Warm to hot weekend, although I'm sure actually quite mild by the standards of some parts of the US. My work stuff really needs watering. Had the crew plant in some extra stuff, so that spent its first weekend out in the open with a 3-day weekend-we don't work weekends and holidays-so lots of very toasty stuff, but more due to its having no root system yet, rather than actually dryness. Go crew...go!

The weekly CONUS accumulated rainfall map showed at least some dry areas got good rain (Massachusetts & central PA missed out). The southwest US monsoon got going -- but it's spotty by its nature -- following the humidity plumes:

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Precipitation/Weekly.aspx?location=default&region=SHD

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip

Got almost an inch around here, and it was a nice slow rain, no runoff. Which is a relief because it was getting a little dry but I'm moving out of the time of year when I typically have troublesome dry spells, from mid May to early July.

"my notion-that it is heat above all else that really dries things out." Oh indeed. Hot air can hold a lot more moisture, and therefore take it away from the ground and plants. The summer I spent in Scotland, I could not believe how lush it looked for how little rain actually fell and how infrequently. (a Scottish friend I stayed in touch with for a couple years afterwards told me I got really lucky, most years are rainier) By the end of the summer, grass in the barest spots was browning, just a bit. But when days are only in the mid-upper 60s, and also the sun angle is so low and strength so weak (relative to the latitude of DC...same as Gibraltar!), things just don't dry out very fast. I really only remember it raining a couple times in July and most of August.

One of the driest Summers I can remember is about to UNofficially end with Labor Day (and also one of the top 3-4 hottest ever, so far). Leaves are already turning and dropping due to persistent heat and dryness. It may take a tropical system to change this entrenched drought and one may be around the corner. 'Cone of Uncertainty' moving further and further west with TD9. So, areas from New England to Long Island, and NJ may get a deluge out of this. Not sure if other severe drought areas (north Georgia or western NYS) will get anything from this at this point.

Ending meteorological summer with just under double our average August rain, 6.40". Sept averages wetter than Aug, probably the effects of tropical systems. Oct is our driest month, 2.65" average I think. Everything still green, corn and beans yellowing in their maturity. Combines will soon be in the fields. It's been a very consistently hot and humid summer, virtually no cold fronts of any strength have made it this far south. I'm still not looking forward to winter, I HATE cold.

sub, I forgets, what region of the world are ye in?

We've gotten a bit dry here....drier than I like to see it, but still sub-drought. Maybe like one inch over average on the year, with 2nd half-July and most of Aug. ending up dry-ish.

sub, latest model shows a change -- the tropical depression in the eastern Gulf that had been forecast to stay well to the southeast may now give the mid-Atlantic states some rain this weekend. But such systems are notoriously unpredictable -- tomorrow's forecast may be quite different.

Tho things are a bit dried put, I measured 3.21" in Aug, slightly above avg, but the Aug avg is low anyway and evaporation (1" - 1.5" a week) was well above precip. Some areas of central PA got better Aug rain than June/July, but not enough to end their general dryness. I got a handfull of 90F+ days this summer, but not unusually hot (nothing like the scorchers of my youth). Balances out the last 2 cool summers a bit.

We've had almost perfect conditions here in west-central WI. Unfortunately, there have been two freakish rains recently that have caused major damage to roads and private property in the northern and western parts of the state. The first occurred in the far northern counties along Lake Superior, which received 8"-12" of rain in six hours on July 12. Just a couple of weeks ago Buffalo and Trempealeau counties, which are only 50 miles to our SW, received 6"-8" in about an hour, which I didn't think was even possible. That much rain in such a short period of time caused extraordinary damage. Very, very bizarre.

Wisconsin, I am in coastal NJ/Zone 7.

Yes, I know NJ is now entirely within the cone as the track shifted west considerably. Lots of unknowns about this very frustrating storm for the meteorologists and us weather geeks. It is a large system but not well organized..., still. It was either stationary or crawled all day today in the Gulf.

Track has it more on land, therefore less wind but maybe more rain, but local meteorologist says a lot of the simulated tracks still are more eastern, but the part I don't like is that both tracks are thinking of a system that stalls out somewhere locally..., either offshore and backtracking west or just sitting over the area more inland. Sandy took the offshore left hook option. Irene inundated our basement (as basically a rain even); Sandy shook the house (as basically a wind event for me).

Beng, interesting how different your summers have been. Last Summer, just like this one were hotter and MUCH drier than normal on Long Island and the northern and central NJ, and eastern Pa. This year, it is these areas and Greater Boston (which is in Extreme drought). This year, another distinct drought area seems to be western NYS (about 200 miles to the northwest).

Maackia, bizzarre is the new normal.

Here in MA it is too late to use the D word. If one hasn't been treating the garden like a drought's on, there's probably a lot of very sad ornamentals in the garden.

When is the last time MA has experienced a drought of this magnitude?

The info I found said that as of Aug 4 it has been 14 years since a drought of this magnitude.

For what it's worth, it is official: this is Massachusett's hottest and driest summer on record, going back to 1872. 3.92 inches of rain this summer.

Some impressive record-rate rains below -- Rockport WV had 19" in 2.5 hrs in 7/18/1889. I measured 3.32" in 50 minutes in VA (near Blacksburg) in mid-July 1990 from a stationary thunderstorm:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/what-is-the-most-rain-to-ever-fall-in-one-minute-or-one-hour

"this is Massachusett's hottest and driest summer on record, going back to 1872"

Wow, that's bad. At least you don't have widespread water restrictions yet, at least according to what I've read. And going into the cold season they wouldn't have as much of an impact as they would have in summer, if imposed now.

David, I hear almost NOTHING about drought or restrictions; I feel like a virtual Cassandra. I think we are at third hottest and driest in NJ. We had lots of days with air so humid you could cut it with a knife, but rain was not a part of it, and Autumn tends to be a very dry, sunny season, actually, in a normal year, it would be considered the best time of the year because of all the endless days of crystal clear skies and warm/dry days to rival Southern Cal. I really wish we would have restrictions imposed! It would not affect me in the least as I do not water the lawn areas. I see in the latest drought monitor NJ's northern and central drought areas have now expanded to include all of South Jersey.

Here's another example of the disparity in precip reporting. Officially, Indianapolis this year had the 4th wettest August ever recorded, with the official station at the airport recording 7.32" total. That's 4.19" above normal. A few miles from the airport, a friend recorded considerably less than officially recorded. On the opposite side of the city, our rain gauge collected over a foot of precipitation in August! The NWS reports the maximum total precipitation for ANY month in Indianapolis was 13.12" in July 1875. Local weather is always a crapshoot. Mother Nature is complex. We've been guaging the precip at our house for 40 years. We know that official records and mapping can't possibly reflect conditions at the neighborhood level. Someday maybe, but not yet.

I was driving around Chester and Lancaster Counties this weekend. I've never seen such variation in corn quality. A few lucky farmers have plants that are still tall and green. Most are tall and brown, indicating that the dryness since mid-late August finished off the plants, although I guess there are still small ears to be harvested. Some though are short and brown, indicating that guy had bad rainfall all summer.