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dave_donhoff

wow... 30 frm at 4.9% par

dave_donhoff
15 years ago

WOW... 30 FRM at 4.9% PAR

I do believe we have officially 'touched'... if not penetrated... the 2003 lows for fixed rate mortgages.

As bond yields continue to be truncheoned to death, I believe we'll see rates drop a bit further.

We are in the range of the "point of diminishing returns"... which is to say, if you are in a loan situation where you see staying put long enough for a breakeven within 3-5 years on a refi... then dilly-dallying around to "see if it goes lower" is simply playing with fire.

MY MARKET OPINION (for whatever it is worth... but which (if I may say so myself, has been scarily accurate over the last several years,)) is as follows;

Fed Prime will likely be artificially constrained (kept lowww) for at minimum through 2009, and could reasonably remain constrained through 2012 (all depending on how long the government fears civil economic rebellion ;~)

Conforming FRMs (the stuff now not only explicitly backed by the givernment, but packaged & sold into securities/bonds that the feds have decided to directly buy, with no future limit nor exit strategy,) will roll around in the 4% range for as long as it takes for the natural real estate cycle to absorb its past 'exuberences' and return to its average growth rate of real inflation* plus 1-2%

(* Real inflation is the massive tidal wave forming while the present white-water is appearing to currently be receding (deflation.) We're likely to see this "surpise" inflationary tidal wave begin to hit in anywhere from 6-18 months, and it is going to be a doozy... and its going to sweep away economic roots making the last 6-12 months look like a birthday party.)

Nobody is exactly sure how ugly the real inflation metrics will register, nor how soon.... but double-digits is mostly unargued... the question is whether it will be contained to the teens.

SO... "real inflation" being in the teens (at our prayerful best,) plus 1-2% to reflect approximate population growth along with relative quality preference to other nations (this is a hope, anyway,) would mean that the 30 FRMs are predictably going to stay between 4-6% until real estate rebounds to double-digit annual growth... and then (Paul Volker *IS* on the new administration's economic advisor team) we may very well see a "whiplash" at the Fed Prime... driving short-term rates on a death march to try to "soak up" the inflationary tidal wave set in place.

It will all be futile, of course.. just like the last time it was tried... but that never stops the tinkerers that think something "has to be fixed" even when history shows you can't fight mother nature.

Cheers,

Dave Donhoff

Leverage Planner

PS.... if I haven't mentioned it recently... ESPECIALLY in light of realistic expectations... the ULTIMATE wealth development hedge is;

A) Acquire as much distressed income/yield real estate (directly,) as possible,

B) Use as MUCH current-dollar leverage as can safely be supported from yield. (Strategically "dancing" your funds around between primary-residence 30 FRMs in the 4%s, and HELOCs in the 3%s... is a quite worthy dance!!!)

C) Allow to simmer in the economic slow-boil... real estate values ROCKING up with the ludicrous inflation, while borrowed-dollar values are decimated in value at the same time.

D) Discover, in a decade, that your 'real estate fleet' has 5-bagged, your yield has 3-4-bagged, your equity has 1,000-bagged, and your leverage costs have been decimated by silly government "fix it quick" shenanigans.

Not EXACTLY a "no brainer".... but considering the so-called 'minds' working feverishly in government to make it all come true, its about as close as it gets ;~)

FINAL PPS. a bit of a gratitude post I sent up at a different quiet board on Sunday... worthy of a repeat, I think. Bless ALL of you for your support!!!

Joanne & I have been SURROUNDED by your loving comments, posts, emails, cards, letters, phone calls, flowers, SIDS Foundation contributions, and on... and even the "gasp, we have nothing to say" comments count... every single touch is another small breath of oxygen that we have been surviving on.

The loss of a friend, sibling, parent or grandparent all bring with it a significant grieving... but "skipping backward a generation" and losing a child... especially a child so painstakingly planned for, anticipated, and desired... raises ongoing series of emotional turmoil beyond any "loss pain" that could ever be imagined.

ODDLY... I feel I can deal with the mechanical issues of financial planning, lending, investing & investment management as plain & easily as ever. POSSIBLY even better, bizarrely, because after Dagny's death I have found I have absolutely zero "bullsiht tolerance" (as though I ever did... guess I did a lot more before...) and somehow in the current environment that intolerance SEEMS to universally 'ring true' with more people than it turns away (or maybe I just don't give a damn anymore about those it turns away... whatever... too many emotional game-players & drama addicts... no effing time for them... life's wayyy to effing short... dammit...)

IN ADDITION, the reality of Dagny's death brought forth the critical "empty space" issue of financial planning, much as the rule that "music is defined by the silence between the notes." That is all to say... financial planning is NOT there to support the damn money.... but rather to support the quality of LIVES (especially right-effing-now lives) of those inside the family.

MAYBE this turmoil is all for the best... maybe this is why some artists create their masterpieces when they are miserably insane.... I dunno...

THANK YOU ALL... I "miss me" too... not really sure if/when the old me will return... hope so (or perhaps an improved version.)

In ANY case... bumping into me today (like a burglar running into my labrador retriever) is far more likely to get you loved to death than ever attacked...

Cheers,

Dave

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