SHOP PRODUCTS
Houzz Logo Print
marys1000

Newsweek article by McGinn - Are homeowners in Denial?

marys1000
15 years ago

I thought the second page was pretty interesting.

Then there is the article: America's fastest dying cities - of which where I live, Dayton, was listed as one. Dayton very recently lost a bunch more jobs. I don't know if they were included in the article data so heck maybe its dying even faster.

So here I am struggling with whether to buy or not - I'm in that awkward time period of not wanting to retire here in 8 years but not wanting to rent either.

Then I compare the Dying city article to the Area Board of Realtor assessment. Are they in denial? I don't know. I think if I sit the fence long enough thats a decision too:)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26127523/

Dayton Real Estate Weathering the Storm

The Dayton-area real estate market continues to weather the storm of the housing market. June sales figures, as reported to the Dayton Area Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, virtually mirrored MayÂs totals. The 1,081 single-family units reported sold reflected a level of activity virtually unchanged from the 1,102 sales reported a month earlier. JuneÂs total was a decline of 340 units compared to June of 2007, before the housing slump had fully set in to our local market.

JuneÂs transactions resulted in $156.6 million in sales activity, which translates into an average sale price of $144,876. This is the highest average sale price since June of last year, albeit a 4% decline compared to the $150,919 average price reported in June 2007. The median sale price for this June was $125,000, just a 1.54% decline in year-over-year comparison.

For the first six months of 2008, a total of 5,611 single-family sales represent a decline of 18.4%, compared to the 6,877 transactions reported in the January-June period last year. A total sales volume for the period of just over $723 billion produced an average sale price of $128,855, and a median sale price of $110,230, declines of 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively. These declines are far less steep than in many parts of the country, which once again confirms the stability of our local home values.

Single-family listings submitted in June totaled 2,546, which is a 13.7% decline compared to a year earlier, when 2,951 listings were added to the inventory. JuneÂs submissions brought the year-to-date listing total for 2008 to 15,061, just 5.8% fewer than the 15,988 listings submitted in 2007 during the same period.

The total number of single-family listings available at the end of June stood at 10,488, and represented a supply of 9.7-months based on JuneÂs sales pace. This is a slight increase in supply compared to the end of May, when a 9.3-monthÂs supply was available. In 2007 at the same time the listing inventory was greater at 10,534, but the supply ratio stood at only 7.4-months due to the more rapid rate of sales during June 2007.

Here is a link that might be useful: Are home owners in denial

Comments (3)

  • sweeby
    15 years ago

    Sounds to me like they're trying to soft-pedal or 'spin' bad news into a "that's not sooooo bad" story. How about comparing to prices two years ago?

    As far as not wanting to rent -- While in general, I'm in favor of buying, if you know you don't want to retire in Dayton, if you will only be there for 8 more years, and if the city is really 'dying' that quickly, seems to me like buying there now would be foolish.

    If the situation in Dayton is anything like what's happening in Detroit, having good renters would be something most landlords would be thrilled to have. From what I'm reading about Detroit, banks aren't even bothering to kick out the residents when foreclosing now because the house is safer occupied than standing vacant.

  • marys1000
    Original Author
    15 years ago

    Sweeby - my head is telling me the same, hold tight, although I'm still looking. There is a part of me that wants to live a lifestyle I like which includes a house. I want a big vegetable garden, I want to foster pets for the Humane Society. I want to paint and decorate. I don't want to have to move if the landlord decides to sell. That old "what if I'm hit by a bus next week". Trying to find the balance is hard.

    As for Dayton, that gets complicated too. The Air Force Base here seems to be a large economic engine for the east and southeast side. Its not really "Dayton". A couple of small "parts" that were brac'ed from other places in the country are coming here so right now the base is actually getting a little bigger. But as with all cycles, the military, and perhaps more the Air Force than the Army, will probably be going through a funding contraction for the next 8 years. So while WPAFB is not going to go away, a % of billets at individual entities all over the base might be cut. I suppose its possible I could get RIF'ed (reduction in force/pink slipped) or a early out in say 6 years.
    While Cleveland et al. don't have bases I suspect it is the same with all cities in the nation. Lower middle-income areas are struggling, contracting, "dying". The bigger proportion of a lower middle income population a city has, the more impact it has on a city as a whole. I.e. a lower middle income (manufg based, or retail tourist based Las Vegas) city would be "dying".
    I think this whole meltdown is based on jobs. It took years for the off shore movement to finally catch up and start to really show itself.

  • sweeby
    15 years ago

    "There is a part of me that wants to live a lifestyle I like which includes a house. I want a big vegetable garden, I want to foster pets for the Humane Society. I want to paint and decorate. "

    Fair enough --
    So rent a HOUSE, and make arrangements in advance so that the landlord agrees that you can plant your vegetable garden and paint and decorate. All of that can be done. And ask for an "If I'm transferred" clause -- If the market's that weak, your requests should be do-able.

0