Minis are quiet & efficient but pricey and require pro installation. Some do qualify for the tax credit. PTHPs like Ryan mentioned are another alternative which you can get fairly economically off the net. If you are handy you can self install otherwise may need some help with the prepping and wiring. The GE5800 is probably most expensive but a nice unit and not that loud.

I agree, With a 2 stage system, there won't be much difference between the 2. I would suggest the NATE dealer if for no other reason than they take the time to be educated and really, the installing dealer makes a big difference in the satisfactory outcome. They will have more resources to fall back on if they run into a question on your job, and they will also generally have a more thorough understanding of the little things about unit start up and such that can make a big difference in the long term performance of the system. This is not to say that the other sources you have mentioned may not be fine. It is just my opinion that dealers who care enough to take continuing classes and training will probably care enough to satisfy you better. As to heatpump vs AC. The advantage of a good heatpump with a low ambient control is that you can run it for heat when the outdoor temperature is around 30 or higher. A good Thermostat will automatically switch your system to furnace from heatpump based on the outdoor temperature. You are insightful enough to realize that is it usually either cool and mild, or really cold where you are. That is why the heatpump is such a good fit.

Remember to look for Heat Pumps that qualify for the tax credit. And Contractor is more important than equipment. For Bryant they have more than 78 different Heat Pump combination to meet the tax qualification. Evolution 288ANA Is good, I have field tested this to run around 1120 watts and hour in low speed (15cts hr from my electric company 34cts High speed) 3 ton heat pump. 286ANA 16 SEER there is a new model 266ANA coming out very soon that will take over the 286ANA series. The 266ANA is the only 2 speed 5 Ton Heat Pump system that meets the tax credit from Bryant, Carrier twin brother also has their model. I am not aware of any other brand that has a qualifying 2 speed 5 ton system. For Maytag, they have just released the IQ Drive heat pump. Highest SEER rating on the market. I'm trying to get real dealer and customer input on these since they are brand new. These systems it is said will run continuously but at a very low cost rate. The only concern I have is if there is still an low volume but high pitch noise created by the inverter outside. Next the Parent Company is looking to file chapter 11 but should not effect anything. It's just a re organization. also they do not have 5 ton systems with the IQ.

lewstone what is your location? while both are nice systems, I think both are overpriced for three ton systems. what size heat strip was quoted? I do prefer new HP systems to have demand defrost. these are my minimum specs for a new HP system. both outside and inside units should be replaced to have a properly matched system. 15 SEER, 12.5+ EER, 9 HSPF best matching VS air handler full BTUs in both cooling and heating for your rated size R-410a refrigerant(same as Puron) scroll compressor preferred electronic demand defrost preferred thermostat with "dehumidify on demand" feature staged backup heat strips new and correctly sized refrigerant lineset you want a thorough inspection of your ductwork system. size, overall condition, supply and return lines, insulation qualities, leak test, etc. any hot/cold spot issues in your home should be addressed. I would only use authorized dealers for the various brands that provide quotes. see mfg websites. I would look at Trane/AmStd,Rheem,Carrier/Bryant. IMO