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jimhardy_gw

Heads up... Arctic cold coming?

jimhardy
13 years ago

I just noticed that the long anticipated cold may be

on the move south for next week,our forecast has just changed again(lowered) to

-7 and a high of 11 for(I believe)next Tuesday.

These numbers will probably get lowered as (here) we have snow on the ground,

there is also thought to be another front coming after this one.

Looks like this one will move into Michigan and the Northeast as well,

keep an eye on the forecast,it looks like this winter is going to bring

it's deadly worst,right in the dead of winter!

Comments (48)

  • californiamike
    13 years ago

    OMG, sounds kind of brutal where you are....time to head south

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Now they are saying -10(F)

    Well isn't that special.

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  • User
    13 years ago

    Arctic air arrived last night with a vengeance! BIG, BIG differences observed over VERY small distances--to the point I was wondering if all those reading were actually accurate. When I was up at five this morning, I saw NYC posting 21.0 F. and Danburry, Connecticut posting -5 below zero. I saw my area on one of those 'hyperlocal'/continuously updated sites posted as 8.0 above while my outside thermometer read 13.0 F. (and that's what ended up getting officially up to this point). Here are some reasons for the variation:

    1.) Big differences depending on how much snow cover was around--guess NYC did a better job of snow removal this time. (have deep snow covered fields around me here)

    2.) Proximity to the coast.

    3.) Proximity to the Urban Heat Island (obviously related to (2) above--because that's where the highest density
    population is.

    and finally,

    4.) Elevation--the coldest air settled in the valleys.

    Very unusual to see as much as a 26 degree difference between NYC and surrounding areas--even on a clear night in January with snow cover. Still wondering about some of those readings this morning though.

    Jim, I see that arctic air mass gets here some time next week. But only after a big rain event (about one inch)--this will be falling on two feet of snow so this may be a problem! Then, highs in upper 20's and lows near 20.0 F.. Don't mind the winter and the snow, but I HATE it when it's below freezing by day!--Stay warm.

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    The reading for NYC was probably pretty accurate because my thermometer was at 19F this morning. Snow removal in Manhattan was pretty good, but in this part of NYC, not so much! Its suppose to go down to about 15F tonight.
    Good luck!
    -Alex

  • californiamike
    13 years ago

    I have been following weather for years, during some of the cold nights, there can be a 20 degree difference from NYC to some of the suburbs, whether they be north or west of the city and at many locations in central and south jersey

    NYC hit a low of 18 last night, SI and newark were at 14, while some areas of central and southern NJ were between 0 and 5 above. While parts of the Hudson Valley were -5 to 5 above...a very wide range.....

  • trishmick
    13 years ago

    Round here, it is projected to be below freezing all of next week save Wed. when we will get rain. Not quite "Arctic" yet, but consistently cold nonetheless. Mid January is always our toughest stretch. I was a little worried about my old trachy after the latest storm. He looked a little pissed off and woebegone, but has bounced back. Still...we usually get a break or two or three of warmer temps, even now. Post Christmas blizzard snow still quite deep and frozen in my yard, demonstrating a lack of that nice "warm up" comin' round. Waiting, waiting...

  • User
    13 years ago

    This snow pack may be helping to insulate ground temps but air temps drop like a rock depending on how much snow there is around that thermometer. I'm been amazed at how the temp ranges have been without really short distances. This morning I was looking at the temp data around NYC and there was a big spread (even on Manhattan Island)--then I realized. At least one of those reporting stations is in snow-covered Central Park, with more space and fewer building to prevent radiational cooling at night. Never mind the palms, the rhododendrons and Acubas don't look too happy either! Good luck with those Trachys.

  • californiamike
    13 years ago

    hey njoasis;;;;;my shrubs and plants in my yard look a mess from the winter....those are the ones that i can see that are not buried under 18 inches of snow....this is a bad winter, hope everything comes back

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    njoasis

    It's the same here,temps in the snowy fields can run 10(f)
    colder than in town-even if it is a small town.
    High winds can neutralize this.

    I think winter is ramping up now,pretty clearly it is.

    We have a deep enough snow cover to promote little moderation in temps.

    This is what the local package on weatherundergrounds forecaster discussion
    said for this morning...and btw,last I heard this would be heading east,
    it's gonna get cold-esp if you have snow on the ground!

    Anyway,here it is....

    The extended closely follows a guidance ensemble blend for temperatures and
    probability of precipitation. Again...ensembles now support another good clipper
    Wednesday...although the operational ec now keeps that system
    farther south. All models have some serious cold air in the wake for
    this clipper...with 2 meter temperatures on the ec now showing -20f
    Saturday morning!


  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    NYC seems a lot colder than it actually is because most of the official data is taken in Central Park. Thats probably why NYC has a record low of -15F (they have also been taken records for a long time which might also explain the cold temperatures). Central Park is always cooler than downtown, you can actually feel the difference! Not only is it a huge space of trees, its also a few miles north of NYC harbor.

    Very cold week ahead!
    3 days will not get out of the low 20s. Thats almost a 20 degreee departure from average!!!!!! Not a single day will be above average and only tuesday will be at average (40F). The next warmest day is only 36F which is 4F below average! Hopefully Feb will bring warmer weather because January looks like it will be a very cold month for the east and plains.

    Good luck!
    -Alex

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    I think very few people have witnessed the kind of air mass that brought those temps
    to NY.

    If you guys get enough snow cover and the right amount of wind -15 is not the coldest
    you could see there,that said,
    there is a lot of warm mass to cool there.

    However,anyone who has witnessed a true Arctic air mass knows they mean business!

  • trishmick
    13 years ago

    Just a pic of my man taken today. No protection at all the last 2 years...and they've been snowy and cold to say the least. Not the coldest Winter this guy has faced yet, but then again, at those times, he was protected.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    That's a nice one,hope it makes it for you(-:

  • islandbreeze
    13 years ago

    Yep, they're forecasting us to get down to 5 above tonight. If it does get that cold, it will be the coldest night of the year. Next week has a couple single digit forecasts of 8 above as well, but tonight might be the coldest. This will really put my southern magnolias to the test. No protection on either one of them.

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    Jim, Fortunately that kind of severity of cold is very rare in NYC! For it to get down to -15F, there would have to be a 40F departure from the average low temperature during the coldest time of the year! That would have to be one very serious burst of arctic air to do that to a city surrounded by lights, buildings, and water. Hopefully it never gets that cold. The 13F predicted for tomorrow night is definitely cold enough for my palms and hopefully it wont get any colder than that this winter!
    trishmick, your trachy is looking great! Thanks for sharing!
    -Alex

  • User
    13 years ago

    Usually, these arctic air masses become somewhat modified as they plunge south then east--unless, they head directly into the Northeast. Been reading the forecasts and similar to much of this winter, models are all over the place even for weather two days ahead on the East coast. (I would think these big, arctic air masses behave more predictably in the middle of the country, but forecasting becomes more of a challenge once the ocean gets a chance to get invited to the party.) Some hints at another BIG nor'easter by the end of the week--before the arctic plunge. Don't think any local records will be broken but am getting tired of the recent two-foot dumpings of snow. Some long-range models calling for warm up late in January. Hope that prediction is accurate! Good luck to all of us for dealing with whatever else this crazy winter has in store for us all.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Hard to predict because very cold air is at shallow levels
    of the atmosphere.....not much modification of Arctic air as
    it passes over snow covered ground.)-:

    Our record low here is -31(F) I believe(glad I never saw it!),
    lowest I have seen is -18(F) two winters ago,that kind
    of cold really feels like it penetrates clothing or anything else.

    I was outside trying to keep the front of the cactus house from coming off,no fun at all.
    I didn't think it felt that cold at first...until I realized my ankles were getting stiff!

  • User
    13 years ago

    They've backed off on the arctic air invasion. But now I'm worried about a possible ice storm for tomorrow. So far, we've been spared from those hideous and destructive storms this winter. They don't have any hazardous weather outlooks for my immediate area but the cold is so entrenched, I'm beginning to think tomorrow is going to be worse than the official forecast is thinking right now.

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    Fortunately last night didnt go down to the forecasted 13F (I think we ended up around 20f for a low temperature), and even though tomorrow is going to be a mess of freezing rain, sleet, normal rain, and maybe some snow, at least its going to be in the 40s and melt some of the snow thats on the ground. Cold week is ahead, but definitely mush milder than forecasted. I think its going to start warming up in another 2 or 3 weeks and I hope that spring comes soon! Only 61 days until spring!!
    -Alex

  • islandbreeze
    13 years ago

    Yeah we didn't get down to 5 degrees here the other night either, instead we got down to 19, so either the water really buffered us, or the weather people were way off. But later in the week they're forecasting 5 and 8 degrees for lows again, with highs around 19. We're supposed to get freezing rain tonight. Ugly stuff. Wondering if we're ever gonna catch a break or get some kind of January thaw this winter.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    I think the January thaw already happened...did you miss it? (-;

    Our forecast has been up and down the last few days, below zero,zero, above zero!

    Now they are saying -2 on the 18th and -10F on the 20th,we'll see.

  • californiamike
    13 years ago

    OMG

  • islandbreeze
    13 years ago

    Yes Jim, I must have blinked LOL. If that was it, our January thaw lasted 2 days, one day of about 35 and another about 42. Pretty crappy if you ask me. Usually we get a stretch in the 50s where I can uncover my palms, but so far it hasn't happened. Maybe February will be warmer to average things out, because January has been below normal so far, along with December.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    We had a couple days in the 50s with rain,it felt tropical/balmy!

    I got a chance to uncover some things(and pull the spear from mt biggest Naini Tal!),
    it has been cold since.

    It was nice to see the snow melt for a week or so,I think this year will be a
    lot like last-with the snow finally melting in late Feb-March 1 and spring beginning early.

    At least that is what I hope!


  • NoVaPlantGuy_Z7b_8a
    13 years ago

    Fortunately, this winter has not been too bad. Lowest Ive recorded here was about 16F and that was only for a couple hours, and that was in December. ITs been cold yes, and below average even, but not bitterly so. Usually mid 30s for highs and mid 20s for lows. The norms for this time of year for highs is 42. Today were actually going to get up to about 48-50F. Wahooo! Shorts weather! lol.... well almost. Much nicer than the 1/4-1/2" of freezing rain we got on Monday night. Yuk. More snow this Thursday night too. Only a few inches though.

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    I really think this has been an awful winter. There just hasnt been any warm ups at all! Temperatures are ran 5 to 6 degrees below normal and it looks like that kind of thing will continue for the rest of the winter! The low temepratures arent too bad, but the high temperatures definitely are! The fact that there has been snow on the ground for close to a month now really says something. With more snow coming tomorrow and Friday and another chance of snow next week, I know that this snow will be here for a very very long time! There is never snow on the ground all winter long here, but there is this winter! Today was a warm day, that is, its above freezing at least! Despite it being warmer than it has been, its still 2 or 3 degrees below average and cloudy on top of that!
    I cant wait until spring. Hopefully April will bring consistently warm temperatures, no frost, and lots of sun and rain (I know kind of opposites) because I think that the eastern part of the country deserves it!
    -Alex

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    I am sad how cold it's been there (-:

    not!

    Seriously it has been a pretty consistently cold couple of months,
    check out our temps,not brutal but no picnic in the near future either )-:

    Only a hand full of temps above freezing!


    Here is a link that might be useful: Bha humbug!

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    Thats very cold weather Jim! I give up on this winter already and Im just waiting for spring. Hopefully all my palms will make it through the winter okay and hopefully all my indoor plants and other palms will also. (Some are getting a little tired of the cloudy days now).
    -Alex

  • cfa_li
    13 years ago

    I'm so tired of this Winter as well, even though our lowest temp was like 18 degrees it's still one of the coldest Winters I've ever experienced. It'd be nice to just have a couple of nice days, I don't even know if that would do anymore, I'm so ready for our first 70's to start rolling in, then we'll move into the higher numbers.

    I can't complain though, most of the country is colder than here. Last Summer was a great gift (July's average high was 92 F, it's "typically" 85-86 F), so I guess it has to balance out some kind of way.

  • HardyPalmFreak
    13 years ago

    It's going down to 10*F here in the Bronx! Luckily my palms are inside now.

  • cfa_li
    13 years ago

    Wow really? The lowest temp in our forecast is 15 degrees. The Atlantic Ocean must be pulling through for us lol. Not that anyone can tell the difference between 10 & 15 since it's practically the same thing (COLD!!!).

  • NoVaPlantGuy_Z7b_8a
    13 years ago

    Ahhhh... what a wonderful, but short lived taste of spring today. Partly sunny and 55F! Too bad its already back below freezing and going to remain cold for about a week, with 1-3" of snow headed this way Thursday night. Oh well, the one day thaw was sure nice while it lasted.

  • User
    13 years ago

    Definitely seems like we're in a rut. The weather pattern just keeps on, keeps on repeating the same monotonous record. (Decided that I'm only about as cold hardy as my Trachys --Zone 7 at best.) Snow tomorrow, then arctic cold, then either a big coastal, snowstorm (or possibly rainstorm with flooding rains).--Ahhhh, Spring is in the air!

    PS., Anyone having problems logging on and posting to this site recently?

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    Im about as cold tolerant as a licuala grandis, or maybe a Cyrtostachys renda! I love the tropical heat and humidity! Looks like there will be a lack of that in the air for a very long time over here! Very cold week ahead (shocker I know!). Now they increased the snowfall totals which is not very good at all. Also a night of 5F in the forecast! This might be the coldest low temperature since 2004 or 2007 (maybe even the early 90s if it drops to 0F). This was not the year for me to be trying more tender palms, but hopefully they wont see anything too extreme in their protection.
    And dont forget everyone, we still have all of February which is still a very cold wintery month (usually the 2nd coldest and sometimes it brings the lowest temperatures!). Come on spring!!!
    2 more months of this weather and then its time to take the plants out (hopefully!)
    -Alex

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Look on the bright side Alex-that would be the side on
    the other side of the clouds!(-;

    February is the last winter month and we should see some
    better temperature fluctuations at least by then,as well
    as the sun getting a lot stronger.

    I think February is going to be a VERY snowy month as this
    strong La Nina begins to get some help from the sun...in
    flipping this pattern/jet-stream upside-down!

    At this point I am embracing the snow(if you can't beat them, join them),it is usually
    about the time I get used to the snow that it begins to disappear....funny how that works.

    Looking for forward to lifting the protection on some of the palms next month,if even for a day or two,
    I will wait until March though...if I have too-what choice is there?

    That s*** is glued/frozen in place right now!(-:


  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Coldest night of the winter last night(Friday morning 1-21-11)
    went down to -5F.


  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    More snow fell last night, but the good news is that the 3F night that was forecasted for next week is now a 7F night. I think I will add some heating to my unheated windmill palm. Not sure what I will use yet though.
    It should be a good 20 degrees below average during the day this weekend!
    -Alex

  • NoVaPlantGuy_Z7b_8a
    13 years ago

    This last one just left a very light dusting here, but man is it starting to get frigid. The high for the day was at midnight and it was like 38. Its now 29 with 35-45MPH winds, going down to about 10-15F tonight. 23-27F for the high tomrrow, and a low of 12-17F tomorrow night. OUCH.

    I think Im about as cold tolerant as Windmill, maybe a Needle Palm. While winter is my least favorite season I think, I still am able to find things about it that I do enjoy. I think the fact I am also into conifers helps too. No real need to worry about most of the being cold hardy, or freezing in their pots, etc. The only worry I have about those in pots is dessication, which means Im watering when the temps are above 35F. Not LOTS but enough to get them through the winter.

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Alex

    If it is a problem to provide heat via a plug in device
    and you have good insulation you could try filling/adding
    some jugs or buckets with water-just make sure they are sealed.

    If you do use some kind of heat source watch the temps
    so you don't cook your cabbage...I mean palms!(-;


  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Right now looks like a major Arctic outbreak at
    the end of Jan-early February-

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    Thanks for the advice jim, I wish I saw your post before! I decided to pile up a bunch of snow over the protection to try and insulate it. Hopefully that will insulate it enough. This will be the coldest night in 7 years, possibly 16-18 years of it goes below 2F. I hope it doesnt!

  • HardyPalmFreak
    13 years ago

    It's going down to 4*F here in the Bronx!

  • birdinthepalm
    13 years ago

    I guess perhaps the "saving" thing here yesterday if I did have a hardy palm outdoors, and I don't , would have been lots of sunshine and if I had one surrounded with clear plastic or such as some extra protection, I'd guess it would have warmed up inside the enclosure, but, since it didn't rise perhaps above 10 F all day and fell to below zero shortly after sunset, I'd guess lots of extra protection would have been needed to prevent serious damage, and it's not just how cold it gets, but how many hours at those low temperatures before it warms again.
    Anyway, best of luck to those folks here in Michigan , who may be trying the "hardy" palms outdoors and I note one nearby small town or should I say village, was registering as -14F while the weather channel said it was -6F here about 6PM. I do think I'll wait a while longer before planting a hardy palm in the yard here, and my palms are warm and cozy indoors right now!

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Ouch Alex,HardyPalmFreak

    That's really cold for you guys!

    Every time I look at the forecast it is endlessly
    the same old story,cold,cold and then some more cold. )-:

    I would love to see a couple days in the 40s...maybe in March!

    What did it get down too?

    Alex-
    I think your snow pile idea will work.

  • islandbreeze
    13 years ago

    Thank Birdinthepalm, where in Michigan are you?

    Well we reached a new low temperature for this winter last night. We got down to 2 degrees above zero for a few minutes here in southeast Mich. Before last night, we got down to 5 degrees 2 other nights, so it has been a very cold winter. The forecast says last night was supposed to be the coldest of it.

  • tropicalzone7
    13 years ago

    I hope your right Jim! I'll be sure to keep everyone updated on its progress. It went down to about 7F here so the unheated trachy probably saw the low teens or so. All my other palms probably barely dropped below freezing if even that! I cant wait until this cold ends, but it looks like the next 10 days look pretty similar to the past 50 days! Spring is only 54 days!
    -Alex

  • jimhardy
    Original Author
    13 years ago

    Meteorological spring in 35!

  • User
    13 years ago

    I think my temps bottomed out at 6 or 7.0 F.. Amazing how there were such differences over relatively short distances (depending on local elevation, snow cover, etc.) To follow is yet another East coast nor'easter. Every storm we have had so far has been complex, and hard to predict. Seems that they are calling for a lot of mixing in the next one with more of a warm influence but I don't buy it. I'm expecting another two-foot whooper that the models did not anticipate.

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