It will change based on weather conditions.

Here is smthg I read on the US National Arboretum website...

"Temperature, sunlight, and soil moisture greatly influence the quality of the fall foliage display. Abundant sunlight and low temperatures after the time the abscission layer forms cause the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly. Cool temperatures, particularly at night, combined with abundant sunlight, promote the formation of more anthocyanins. Freezing conditions destroy the machinery responsible for manufacturing anthocyanins, so early frost means an early end to colorful foliage. Drought stress during the growing season can sometimes trigger the early formation of the abscission layer, and leaves may drop before they have a chance to develop fall coloration. A growing season with ample moisture that is followed by a rather dry, cool, sunny autumn that is marked by warm days and cool but frostless nights provides the best weather conditions for development of the brightest fall colors. Lack of wind and rain in the autumn prolongs the display; wind or heavy rain may cause the leaves to be lost before they develop their full color potential."

Here is a link that might be useful: usda

A friend who grew up in Illinois near a Norway maple and a sugar maple said which one of these was good in a given fall varied from year to year.

Yes, all tree species will vary to some to degree in fall color from one season to the next.

I have a named cultivar of sugar maple and while it does vary somewhat year to year in the intensity of the orange and red, it always has some. While weather is a factor, there is also genetics. Your named cultivar has been performing well so that suggests the autumns have been conducive to good fall color, yet your seedling has been disappointing. I am thinking you may have a dud.

gingkonut, that's what I'm afraid of.

The last 2 years have had stupendous fall coloring, just gorgeous and brilliant for all the other native sugar maples, just not my new one.

The most important factor affecting the color of sugar maples from year to year is the effect of early freezes. If you get a night of temperatures much below something like 25 degrees, especially with wind, the color will be much reduced. If your sugar maple has a tendency to turn color later than others, then this risk is greater.

But aside from that, I have had some planted maples show poor color for the first 4 or 5 years after planting, and after that much better.

--Spruce

i would be done with it.. and buy a named variety... if you are intent on a specific color ...

otherwise you could spend decades waiting for that perfect confluence of variables.. to have a nice show ...

around here.. a lot of the maples.. are just plain old yellow ... NEVER do they turn red ...

though your seedling may look like a sugar maple... if in fact it is ... you really dont know what the other parent was ....

ken

I wonder if it could be that your sugar maple from seed, could actually be a black maple. The taxonomy of black maple is unclear, as to whether it is a distinct species or a sub-species of sugar maple, though I think (not certain of this) that they mainly though of as a sub-species. They are reported to often not be as bright in color, and more tolerant of dryness, but otherwise very much like the species sugar maple.

What is the "named" cultivar that you planted? So that we have some reference for actual comparison (and for selfish reasons that my significant other like trees that turn orange ;-) ). Also were they b&b trees, size etc. Though I suspect they are established since you state that it's getting large, any additonal info might bring up something that could be helpful. Also you state is was much cheaper, was it in fact cheaper than the other seed grown sugar maple? If so, it might indicated they "knew something", but I would rather give the the benefit of the doubt.

Arktrees

Thanks for all the responses so far.

In looking at my records, the named cultivar was "October Glory", but looking it up, that is actually acer rubrum, not sugar maple. My goof. But still gorgeous.

I bought the sugar maple at a nursery in a 15 gal container, it was not cheaper than other sugar maples, it was just not a named cultivar.

I live in sugar maple country, they make a lot of syrup around here and the countryside is gorgeous. Just not my yard. It had no landscaping. I thought a prominent sugar maple in the backyard would be a thing of local beauty. But this maple actually looks like a black maple, a blah yellow which doesn't last long at all. (which is what my woods have)

If it might get better, I'll leave it. But given it's prominent, preferred location I'm really hoping for a stunner in the fall.

Sigh, penny wise - pound foolish. For $40 more I could have had something with better odds.

I'm a long ways from western NY, with a significantly different climate, but Fall Fiesta and Green Mountain seem to be the best most reliable color sugar maples here. I also have a "Commemoration" that is showing promise, but is still a new tree that I can't be sure about it yet.

While I can't say I know what your area looks like with sugar maples, there is a surprising number in the hills of North Arkansas (if you know where to look), and some years those blended with blackgum/red maple/ and some of the nicer oaks, is a beautiful picture. If you have pictures of your area, it would be nice to see.

It's your tree, but if I had a place to put it, I would probable move it and put in something I felt better about. Remember, these things also affect home value as well, if you are concerned about those sort of things. Might even be able to use it as a tax write-off or something (I don't know as I'm not an accountant). Just a thought. Good luck.

Arktrees