hoovb! Exactly! Eternal optimist here. I know we are in a drought, and many have it worse than us. We and our neighbors contracted to have our pot hole ridden private road paved, and guess what? It rained, and they couldn't pave. Project got delayed twice because of rain! And of course, rain a week ago and yesterday. But, only enough to turn the dust on the cars into a spotted mess. I worry because our soil is decomposed granite, and it drains so well, it does not stay wet. We are committed to 4" mulch, but we have so many grapevines and fruit trees, it's tough to keep the ground damp. Sigh. I should change my screen name to raindance! We should ALL change it to RainDance1 or 2 or 7001... Everyone in CA should! Suzi

Jay, I guess he's saying it ain't over till it's over. Got enough hay for the horses? This is shaping up to be a winter to remember, and I don't exactly mean that in a good way. When I was a kid growing up in Fort Worth, we had the same local TV meteorologist forever....his name was Harold Taft and he was old-school, so he relied upon his memories of local weather history and weather patterns. He was the best met around at that time, and I've never seen once since then who is as good at forecasting weather as he was. My dad used to say that "If Harold said it, you can take it to the bank" and I think everyone felt that way about him. Sounds like Dan is a lot like Harold. I wish El Nino would just go away, except after El Nino goes we often have a drought year, so I'll guess I'll enjoy ENSO while it lasts, even if it isn't terribly enjoyable. Dawn

I think traditionally we begin feeling El Nino's effects after Christmas. That's why they called it El Nino--because it arrives so close to Christmas. It isn't cut and dried though, and I guess it will get here when it gets here, if it does at all. El Nino varies from cycle to cycle. Sometimes we have very strong El Ninos. The last really strong El Nino was when we still lived in Texas. I think it was in 1996 or 1997 and we had flooding rains in mid- to late-spring. One thing I have noticed about El Nino in the last 10-15 years is that it tends to have an opposite effect on us here than what it has on Tim's family in Pennsylvania. So, if El Nino brings them tons of snow there (like it did Friday and yesterday), then we'll be drier than usual here in southern OK. And, if we have massive winter/spring rain, they tend to have less rain than usual there in Pennsylvania. So, based on this past week's storm, maybe El Nino is going to affect them more than it affects us. That's not a very scientific forecast, but it works for us. Our local forecaster told us a couple of months ago that he expected only slightly colder weather in our part of the state (and we have had that in December here, even being colder than Jay's location in Kansas a few times) and probably a bit wetter winter, but not massive amounts of rain because this is only a moderate El Nino. I haven't had to water because we have had an inch or two of rain here in Love County this month. November was warmer and drier than usual for us, but that's a pre-El Nino month anyway. I've linked NOAA data below that shows El Nino's typical impact during the time frame they studied. I noticed for us here in southern OK, a typical El Nino brings us 134% of our usual rainfall for Nov.-Dec. in the years they studied. (We had that in 2009----maybe southern OK got its El Nino weather one year early. LOL) I don't pretend to be a forecaster, but our trees, animals and other plants aren't acting like they're expecting cold weather. We still have trees with leaves and some of those leaves are green but other trees like the post oaks that normally hold their brown leaves throughout the winter here are already bare. I think Mother Nature is mixed up this year. Dawn Here is a link that might be useful:

..if it's as bad as that, and I'm not doubting it, and just thinking aloud here as to what I might do if in that situation...I think if the rains came, and it all looked lush next Spring, would I put my home up for sale and try to get out while I could, choosing a time when the home and garden would look its best, likely sell to a non-gardener, and maybe move further north, or another State... maybe a zone 7 or somesuch, ... ...speaking as a gardener I want to garden in peace, and not to have the worry of climate change and its potentially disastrous consequences, constantly nagging at me... so that my garden could never reach its potential... ...I wouldn't be happy with that, and I think I would have to consider the situation and perhaps take advantage of an opportunity that might present itself next year... ...i.e. get out while I can... always easier said than done....especially from thousands of miles away...