Susan,
I'm not Dawn but I have read several of the long range forecasts that was made. They were all over the place. so couldn't really tell what was going to happen. The ones I put the most faith in said the increase in moisture would be in from Jan through early spring. And for here our temps would be just below normal but for southern OK they would be several degrees below normal. With that being said remember they have trouble prediction it one day ahead let alone 30. I know the local forecaster I listen too thought we might get more snow and moisture but more in Feb , March and April. But he said that a lot of that depends on what the temps in the ocean does over the next 60 days. And he said this about a month ago. So I'm guessing we have 30 more days to go to have an idea. Hopefully by then we are 2/3 of the way through Jan and haven't had a lot of bad weather. He thought we could see an ice storm or two through this area. And I hope we miss them also. In the end no one on earth knows what Mother Nature will do till it is over. So I tend to take winter day by day. Easier to get through it rather than worrying about a bad winter we never get. And I have no control over it if we do get a bad one.
I hope you get some moisture. I watered most of my young trees ect two weeks ago good and usually don't water again till late Jan.. Here that works good. The nursery people around here claim watering from mid Dec to late Jan can cause a plant or tree to break dormancy early especially with the warm days we can have in Jan. I've followed that advice for years and have always got by well. Jay

Thanks for your input, Jay! I did read one of the NOAA reports that said the El Nino/La Nina ocean changes had only a moderate effect on the US anyway, and a more profound effect in South America, Australia and New Zealand.

You're right about taking it one day at a time. Even with all of that sophisticated technology available today, we are still in the dark.

Susan

Susan,
I still find the critters way better indicators of bad weather coming than the forecasters. 2-3 weeks ago they were saying 5-10 inches of snow for us. I said I found it hard to believe as none of the critters acted like a bad one was coming. And we got an inch probably at the most. Yes like I say the only difference between today and 40 years ago. Is the cost of the equipment they use to guess with. And now the excuse for the young forecasters is the computer models were wrong. The data a computer puts out is only as good as what is entered. And someone had to enter it. Computer models takes data from the past and tries to compare it and predict what will happen. But mother nature doesn't go by what happened in the past all the time. Jay

I think traditionally we begin feeling El Nino's effects after Christmas. That's why they called it El Nino--because it arrives so close to Christmas. It isn't cut and dried though, and I guess it will get here when it gets here, if it does at all.

El Nino varies from cycle to cycle. Sometimes we have very strong El Ninos. The last really strong El Nino was when we still lived in Texas. I think it was in 1996 or 1997 and we had flooding rains in mid- to late-spring.

One thing I have noticed about El Nino in the last 10-15 years is that it tends to have an opposite effect on us here than what it has on Tim's family in Pennsylvania. So, if El Nino brings them tons of snow there (like it did Friday and yesterday), then we'll be drier than usual here in southern OK. And, if we have massive winter/spring rain, they tend to have less rain than usual there in Pennsylvania. So, based on this past week's storm, maybe El Nino is going to affect them more than it affects us. That's not a very scientific forecast, but it works for us.

Our local forecaster told us a couple of months ago that he expected only slightly colder weather in our part of the state (and we have had that in December here, even being colder than Jay's location in Kansas a few times) and probably a bit wetter winter, but not massive amounts of rain because this is only a moderate El Nino.

I haven't had to water because we have had an inch or two of rain here in Love County this month. November was warmer and drier than usual for us, but that's a pre-El Nino month anyway.

I've linked NOAA data below that shows El Nino's typical impact during the time frame they studied. I noticed for us here in southern OK, a typical El Nino brings us 134% of our usual rainfall for Nov.-Dec. in the years they studied. (We had that in 2009----maybe southern OK got its El Nino weather one year early. LOL)

I don't pretend to be a forecaster, but our trees, animals and other plants aren't acting like they're expecting cold weather. We still have trees with leaves and some of those leaves are green but other trees like the post oaks that normally hold their brown leaves throughout the winter here are already bare. I think Mother Nature is mixed up this year.

Dawn

Here is a link that might be useful:

I noticed the same thing here, Dawn. Our post oaks are almost bare already and they normally keep those leaves tightly on their branches through winter. Makes it easier to collect leaves for the garden but it's weird.

Diane

Diane,

I am glad to hear it is happening there too because it is so odd and I was starting to think Mother Nature has just gone crazy.

I suspect it is related to the weather being so peculiar this past year, but I don't know what has caused the trees to misbehave.

Dawn

Trees also lose leaves in the absence of rainfall, too, but while it is pretty darned dry here in OKC right now, I didn't think that overall in the last 2 months or so, we had been that dry.

Dawn. do you remember the drought summer we had several years ago when all the flowering ornamentals dropped their leaves only to come back and bloom again in the rainy fall weather we had? Now that was a strange occurence! We had blooming trees that normally only bloom in spring, putting on a fall show.

I was looking at my fruit trees the other day and noticed that my granny smith still has about 30% of it's leaves left on it and they where just as green as they where back in the summer, why?, the peach trees, apricot and another apple tree a Fuji, have lost all their leaves, I always thought if it got cold enough all the leaves would die, and it has got down to 12 degrees here, this is the first time I've noticed leaves living after several hard freezes.

I'm already tired of winter, tho a white Christmas would be nice' and it's increasingly looking like we might get one here.
I find my self mapping out the way I want to layout the garden this year, ordering seeds and in general just day-dreaming of warmer days and happier times.
It seems I'm like many of you folks and over plant every year, but that's ok I like to give away stuff to others Its a good way to make new friends and stay in touch with old ones.
I've only been gardening full time since I retired In 2005, and I found there's nothing like a garden to draw people,
people I've never meet will stop and chat when they see me out there working.
you know I never was a people person before but its impossible to stay that way once you start gardening, and I'm glad
Merry Christmas everybody.
James

Susan,

I remember that year. It happened because the extreme drought drove the plants into dormancy, and when it cooled off/rained a little, they broke dormancy in the only way they "know" how---by blooming.

One of my plum trees sort of did that this year, but it only had a few blooms. We had a dry last half of July and most of August here and it dropped all its leaves, then about a month later when rain began to fall, it bloomed a little and leafed out again. I also had spring wildflowers, like Indian Paintbrush and Meadow Pinks bloom again, and they usually only bloom in late spring.

James,

That is the sort of odd behavior Diane (Owiebrain) and I have seen with some of our trees too. I am going to assume it is weather related. If the leaves happen to hang on all winter, they ought to drop just before the trees bloom in spring.

I hope y'all have a white Christmas. I think snow is so nice, especially if I am sitting in the house all snug and warm with a cup of hot cocoa. We always take the dogs on long walks in the woods when it snows and we see all kinds of animal and bird tracks in the snow.

When we first moved here, I discovered that having a garden in front of the house, between the house (which sits back 300' from the road) and the road is a great way to meet people. Everyone that drove by stopped to introduce themselves, look at the garden etc. Even if a total 'stranger' stopped by, I always sent them on their way with tomatoes or peppers or zucchini or something else from the garden--and, of course, they were not strangers any more after that.

One year the tomatoes were so good that I practically flagged down people driving up our road and offered them bags of tomatoes.

The next best way to meet people is to walk a dog and wave at everyone who drives by. Eventually, after you've waved to them time and time, they begin stopping to chit chat and pet the dog and then you've made more new friends.

Y'all, we are not the only ones watching El Nino. See the attacked article. They even mention the tornado that hit Lone Grove in Carter County, OK, last winter.

Here is a link that might be useful: El Nino article

Yes has been odd. Dawn I was thinking the same thing today when looking at the hair coat on my horses. One doesn't have much at all. And I've seen him like a wooly bear before. The other 3 have a little more but not what I would expect for a cold winter. But what I have seen is they can put on a lot of hair in a week or two and then cold weather hit. Saw that 6 or 7 years ago. So just because it is short now doesn't mean that it will be in Feb. My apples trees are finally down to the last few leaves. Even after the severe cold a few are half green. Can't remember anything like it. A very odd year here. Again forecasters can only guess like the rest of us. I will continue to watch the critters and what their actions and coats tell me. Jay