something damaged the bud… could be a long list of possibilities, but if every subsequent leaf is a bit bigger -that last leaf was obviously very stunted and damaged, but at least it came out, so there is still hope another larger one will come out soon… unless whatever is damaging the crown is still going on. If there is any way to apply an anti fungal to the crown of your palm, I would do it soon

Thanks, I phoned an arborist and they thought it could be fusarium fungus / vascular wilting. However, looking his up they say fronts often go brown on just one side which these ones aren't. Maybe bird poo has spread a fungus to just the crown, your suggestion sound sensible. I'll check with some others tomorrow.

In addition I noticed that the trunk is leaking sap... not sure if this is normal:

and the seemingly healthy fronds do have some yellow spotting on the underside:

I guess it is not looking good :(

that wound on the side is probably a clue, too…. maybe something dug its way into your palm and damaged the bud directly.

Hi palmbob, I got a reply back from a tree expert:

"I have had a good look at the photos and actually relieved to see the tree was in relatively healthy. What I can say is it’s probably worth doing something to try and save this tree, things that you can do yourself could be apply a good layer forest mulch underneath the tree and as far out as you can manage. Secondly head down to the local nursery or hardware store and grab sea sol and water in. The other thing is definitely keep up the water to this palm over the next couple of months, unless you dig the soil and find completely saturated already then hold off on watering."

He also suggested a soil injection package at $265 times 2. He didn't mention the wound, but according to a different forum: "if the dripping is coming from the trunks and not the leaves, that's more likely to be a bacterial infection." which may or may not help a bacterial infection, he didn't say. A different blog said "Palm trees do not drip sap so after asking a Tree Doctor he said it looks like "honey"" so it could literally be honey that I am seeing (we do have stingless bees elsewhere in the garden). Still a bit confused!

Palms do drip sap, if enough damage is done to the upper trunk or crown, though I admit it is not usually honey colored… usually whitish… that is where palm wine and syrup come from (big economic value in many countries where palm wine and syrup are important commodities).. sometimes sap can be collected by making holes in the trunk in the way maple syrup is collected.. in some parts of the world where contaminated fruit bats exist, a virus called Nipah is spread by the bats licking up the oozing sap made from incisions meant to collect sap (by people)… and then people unknowingly contaminate themselves by eating this raw sap after the bats have had their fill. This sap is quite tasty and sweet from what I understand… and if you get this virus, there is no cure and death occurs in over 70% of infections… yikes!

Not likely Stingless Bees, you'd see evidence of a hive and bee activity around it. And they don't normally leave honey exposed like that. That's most likely sap from the palm, or else dripped from somewhere else. Although, from the photos there doesn't seem to anything else nearby to be the source of it.

Thanks for the info, ... I'll make sure not to drink the sap!

The palm is actually improving, there have been several new vertical growths that look to be full sized and only have a little big of browning on the end. This happened before I changed anything... possibly the summer rains helped.

Never-the-less I surrounded the base with aged forest mulch and put some seaweed based fertiliser down. I read somewhere else that yellowing can happen with lack of potassium... I could add some to the soil, though probably the fertiliser already contained this.

Like previous folks have said there definitely was bud damage. One of the culprits not always thought about is a lightning strike. I've seen Palms hit by lightning and not skip a beat, ones that all fronds are brown within 2 weeks and then ones that the center spear and younger growth showed heavy damage just like the photos you have shown. I'm curious to know if the Palm recovered? Also that scar on the trunk potentially points to a strike as well. Palms don't always have splits from lighting on the trunk but the bolt could have exited at that point.