Thanks for the feedback (hope others will reply with more)! OK, I guess that sounds right not to state 'furnace' for electric. We really want to eliminate oil even if it is minimally cost-effective or costs a little more. There would be some peace-of-mind since the furnace is 15yrs old and the tank (and line) is underground and likely 60yrs old. Also skyrocketed price of oil will probably stay or go higher. With all my research thus far I ruled out 13 SEER or lower. One upcoming bid is 14.5 SEER. We will not do propane, so it is heat pump with current oil or new electric. And wouldn't any heating fail with an electrical outage since the fan needs electricity (unless one has a generator)? Also, any advice on recommended brands? I think one guy is going to offer York and Goodman and the other guy Carrier (but there are so many brands out there and I am finding a LOT of unsatisfied reviews).

dave first of all,I would ditch the oil furnace and go all high eff heat pump with matching var speed air handler. here are my personal specs for a new system. 15 SEER,12+ EER, 9 HSPF matching var speed air handler full BTUs in both cooling and heating for your rated size R-410a refrigerant scroll compressor preferred electronic defrost preferred staged backup heat strips thermostat that controls blower speed Don't fool yourself-you will not get that toasty feeling from HP heat vs oil heat. But you won't freeze either and you should smile at your savings. Yes, the Infinity 16 HP is a recip compressor with a 50-100 split on low/high stage. It is a successful system and you would achieve very little improvement in efficiency with the Infinity 19 HP. I personally think two stg systems may be overated and not necessarily worth the cost difference. The Performance 15 HP with matching var speed Infinity air handler/controller is a great system. Of course sizing is important of the equipment as well as the condition/sizing/insulation properties of your ductwork system which is normally overlooked. If you have any hot/cold spots in your home, now is the time to address these issues. Another good sgl stg system would be Trane's XL15i or AmStd Heritage 15. But if you absolutely want two stg, then it's Carrier Infinity 16 or sister mdl Bryant Evolution 16 HP-no question. I am attaching a fuel comparison calculator. IMO Here is a link that might be useful: Fuel Comparison Calculator

The 2.5 ton heat pump condenser is a Comfort 13 Puron and that coil match is ARI# 1294794: 30,000 btu cooling (a full 2.5 tons), 13 SEER, 10.8 EER, 30,000 btu heating, 8 HSPF. This is a basic economy heat pump. It will still reduce your oil consumption by a significant amount depending on climate. Compared to $4 per gallon oil w/80% efficient furnace, a new heat pump with 14 cent/kw-hr electricity costs about 300% less to run at 45F ambient. Savings decrease with decreasing outdoor temps. What is your electric rate? What State? A co-worker in PA did the same thing you are considering and reduced his oil consumption significantly. This was when at oil was $3 per gallon. He's ahead of the oil wave. Good luck.

@ Saltidawg: I do see your point... I suppose yearly maintenance is not that big of a deal, and it would be a good idea to have a yearly tune-up/inspection with any type of system anyway. Perhaps "maintenance" is not the right term for all my concerns... it's also the "inconvenience" factor, having to rely on deliveries and worrying about the tank running dry. I know that can be avoided by coordination with your oil delivery service, but I don't like getting on automatic fill-up plans when fill-ups cost so much. (If just using oil as back-up, it would be less of a concern though.) I'm also thinking about long-term costs, such as if the furnace ever had to be replaced (I'm guessing that would be 4-5K?), or if the oil tank had to be replaced (I'm guessing that would be about 2K?). My furnace should be ok for a while, but the tank is 60 years old, so I feel like I could have problems with it. If I consider keeping oil, I suppose I should have the tank inspected. It also has a broken gauge so that should be fixed too. (If I just got rid of the oil, I could avoid that.) It's about about $3,000 more to go with HP with electric back-up than HP with oil back-up. The additional cost isn't just for the electrical upgrade... it also includes going 15 SEER vs. 13 SEER, additional equipment and labor, and removal of oil tank. I would have a higher SEER, sufficient electrical power if it's ever needed for anything else in the house, the tank out of my house, never having to worry about it leaking... also approx. ~20%-ish saving over oil back-up heat if oil stays at $4/gal, potentially more if oil prices go higher. $3,000 isn't a trivial amount, but I feel like once that conversion is done, all you ever have to worry about is one system, the heat pump... no oil furnaces, no oil tanks... so over time, I feel like money would be saved. (Correct me if I'm wrong... an HP with oil back-up should have about the same lifespan as HP with electric back-up, shouldn't it? There's additional electrical components to worry about, but I feel like it's usually the compressor that craps out over time, and compressor usage would be about the same either way, wouldn't it?) That being said, you do have some good points, and I will take them into consideration. If my oil tank is ok, maybe it isn't worth the extra 3K at this time to get rid of oil. If it's not, well then I'd rather take the 2K that would have to go to replacing the oil tank, and put that towards getting rid of oil. @ david_cary and weedmeister: Thanks for the info. I'm still a little confused about actual percent savings, but I think if I'm going to go through with this, it would be ideal to go with a 15 SEER, which I may not be able to do that if I keep the oil. Since my current A/C unit is 10 SEER, I think I would save a decent amount on A/C bills with 15 SEER. (I wish I knew how much of my electric bill actually goes to A/C and what goes to other stuff, but I don't really have a way to tell that.) @ cindywhitall: HP with oil back-up would not have electric back-up strips. If the oil craps out, then it would come down to repairing/replacing the oil furnace, adding electric back-up later, or adding some other back-up later. If I wanted to keep oil AND add electric back-up also, it would cost more than the current higher cost route, and I'm not sure it would even be possible. Oil prices to me seem a lot more unstable than electricity, but that's anybody's guess. Yes, I know I need to make a decision soon, before it gets cold. I know I can easily get through until mid-to-end October without heat, but not beyond that. My electric bill doesn't have the costs on one line either... I added up all the "per kwh" usage charges, and that's where I got the $0.114. My August bill was for acutal usage of 1903 kwh. Does your bill have gas on it too? (BGE puts electric and gas both on the same bill, but since I don't have gas, my bill only includes electric.) I don't know how NJ's rates are, but MD (BGE) did have a pretty big price increase around 2007/2008... however, since then electric rates have come down every year. I use an alternate supplier for additional savings. Rates are only guaranteed until May 2013, and they'll be announcing future rates this fall. My winter rates with the alternate supplier are the same as summer rates. FYI - I am female. My husband doesn't think it's necessary to do an HVAC upgrade, so that's why I'm looking into it. He thinks we should either use only wood and spaceheaters (which we did last year and was AWFUL), or get some oil, but try to make one fill-up (~250 gal, $1000) last all winter, which is unrealistic. Besides the oil issue, we have some other HVAC issues that really should be addressed (we should have some additional ductwork, the A/C doesn't work well on the 2nd floor, etc.), so I think it's really necessary to do something NOW. @mike_home: As mentioned, the tank is one of my concerns, being 60 years old. I wouldn't buy (another) house with all oil either, and if I could go back in time, probably wouldn't have bought this one. BUT - I can't change that now, so here I am :) SO WHERE I AM RIGHT NOW: I know oil alone for heating is not a good option, and something really should be done. I still need to get some more estimates, and I'm honestly not sure yet about keeping the oil as back-up or not. I don't see a big advantage to keeping oil, except less up front cost, and the off chance that oil prices could go lower one day (which I don't ever see happening). I could keep the oil as back-up now and look into other back-up sources later. I don't think we'd really need MUCH oil for back-up... I'm not looking for a toasty 75 degrees... more like 65 degrees most of the time is good enough. We also have the wood stove too. The only drawbacks to keeping oil are that we may only be limited to 13 SEER, and I'm worried about the condition of the oil tank... also it's a good time to remove the 60 year old tank NOW while it's empty... so it's a tough call. No one has commented on geothermal, but I may look into that too... doesn't hurt to get an estimate, right?