A useful behaviour is ...

... patience, kelton.

Maybe some now, so you don't kick yourself later if this is the lowest that it goes.

Keeping a substantial amount on hand, to buy a given amount, from time to time.

No one can hit the bottom of the market(except by a fluke).

The idea is to bracket, over the bottom.

My opinion - more downside potential yet.

I've used a substantial portion of saved cash, will use some more later, then borrow some, most likely.

Then, as the market recovers, pay off the loan with later savings.

I won't borrow to consume ...

... but I may be willing to borrow in order to acquire capital assets, depending on conditions.

I figure that I can borrow for minimal or even next to nil net cost.

But one needs some training and experience .. and then, often one makes mistakes: which can be costly.

Not for the novice.

Not for the faint of heart.

Not for someone who may well need the money within five years.

Best if one can pay down the loan from ongoing savings.

Good wishes to you and yours.

ole joyful

I know how to do 3 things very well.

1.) I know how to live well below my means without feeling "deprived".
2.) I know how to get out of bed and go to work every day I'm able. I'm skilled with a sewing machine.
3.) I know how to save.

I am rather a "johnny come lately" to the concept of INVESTING. I've learned to make my "payments" with the same dogged regularity I've tackled installment loans. I don't allow the market swings to deterr me. Sure, I get freaked out when it takes a "dive", and I certainly do worry about the economic forecast. But I remind myself to take a deep breath and have a little faith.

I'm not nearly smart enough to think I'll be able to "time" the market. Dollar cost averageing is what allows me to keep my worries under a reasonable facsimile of "control".

Why not do a little research here and there? Maybe this is a good time to invest some discretionary money in utility or energy companies - with going green and wind farms and coal gasification and Canadian oil sands and ethanol and on and on - most utilities are diversifying and getting on the bandwagon big time. Buy when the stocks are dropping and with a little patience they generally rise; and many pay a dividend regardless of how bad the market is. We all need energy and there probably will never be a time when we don't. Geez, what about your own state's power companies?

However, if you never actually reach your comfort zone which allows you to hit the "buy" button, you can be satisfied with money not spent. But you will continue to lament missed opportunities.

I'm actually considering this a pretty good time. Last fall, when the DOW hit 14,000, I convinced DH to move most of his 401K into a guaranteed interest fund. The reason? I knew that after he retired, he'd be rolling over the whole thing into his IRA at Smith Barney where our CFP will invest it into a number of mutual funds.

Now that the time has come to roll it over, the funds will buy more since the market is down. It may well go down more (this could be another volatile year), but we have enough liquid assets that I don't think we'll need to sell anything for a few years.

He's having a cow about the market, but barring unforseen circumstances requiring us to sell, I think we can weather this....

This might not be bottom, but I like the idea that some of the pain of future drops has been dulled by the latest 10%+ drop.

I'm sure many of you have heard it said that when all of the financial magazines have covers with images of bears, buy.

Of course, I'm not talking about dumping everything I have into the market, but it might be an interesting time to dollar cost average into a down market.

Relating to this, an interesting insight into what the pro mgrs are doing. However, remember that even the pros have difficulty consistantly beating the market average! Please note these are NOT my opinions; I'm just posting this excerpt for the perusal by those who are not subscribers to the WSJournal.

Market Drop, Fed Cut Create Opportunities For Cherry Pickers
By JANE J. KIM and JEFF D. OPDYKE
January 23, 2008; WSJournal

"....Here then are market strategists' recommendations about how to maneuver amid sinking stocks, soaring bond prices and lower interest rates.

Stocks

Compared with Treasurys, stocks are as cheap as they've been since the late 1970s, based on their earnings yields, says David Kelly, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s JPMorgan Funds. Lower interest rates will benefit financial stocks as these companies regain the ability to borrow more cheaply at the short end of the yield curve and lend at higher rates at the long end, he says. Indeed, financial stocks benefited from yesterday's Fed rate cut, with J.P. Morgan Chase, for instance, rising more than 3%.

"I see it as a buying opportunity for people who are long-term investors," says Thomas Griebe, a retired mechanical engineer in Northville, Mich. Mr. Griebe, 55 years old, says he is fully invested already, but this week emailed his nephew to encourage him to buy an index fund of the total stock market.

Still, investment advisers are recommending that investors move to large-company stocks that are better able to weather economic slowdowns. Many strategists are recommending defensive havens like health care and consumer staples, which make the stuff people need even in bad times.

Ernie Ankrim, chief investment strategist at Russell Investments, says the firm's fund managers are buying more of the stocks they've been recommending, such as Coca-Cola Co., McDonald's Corp., Gilead Sciences Inc. and Google Inc., in sectors such as health care, technology and consumer staples. Yesterday, Mr. Ankrim also slightly boosted his recommended allocation to non-U.S. stocks, primarily on the basis that the Fed's rate cuts could further weaken the U.S. dollar, which will help boost returns for U.S. investors from foreign stocks.

But fears of a U.S.-led recession are sparking a selloff across a multitude of countries big and small. Some of those declines almost seem overdue, as stock valuations, especially in developing countries, soared in recent years. But amid the widespread rout, stock prices are falling even for companies that have few, if any, ties to the U.S. or global economy. Indeed, fund managers around the world are using the declines to essentially cherry pick through local companies and industries that are suddenly inexpensive.

Thomas Neuhold, portfolio manager in Vienna for Vontobel Asset Management, says his fund had "a very big cash position in the fourth quarter," because so many of the Eastern European markets he invests in had escalated dramatically in recent years and he was leery of putting that money to work. But "many companies have dropped 30% and 40% in the last couple of weeks and are very attractive at the moment," he says.

Mr. Neuhold says he is selectively buying in sectors with strong ties to their domestic economies, especially stocks in real estate, telecom and banking. Among his targets: Immoeast AG, a leading Austrian real-estate firm focused on Central Europe; Magyar Telekom, the Hungarian phone company; and Austria's Erste Bank, with tentacles across Central Europe.

Andrew Foster, acting chief-investment officer at Matthews International Capital Management, the San Francisco firm that runs the Matthews Asian funds, says he's cherry picking in Japan and markets like South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia that have been generally outside the limelight. The firm favors businesses that are critical to Asia's domestic build-out, such as consumer durables and consumer-oriented financial services. "These declines are exaggerated. The Asia economies are still chugging along and there are now values to be found," he says.

Bonds

For the most part, the bond market isn't the place to be looking these days. Two-year Treasurys yield just over 2%, while the 10-year is about 3.5%. As such, Marilyn Cohen, president of Envision Capital Management, a Los Angeles bond-investment firm, says "there are no opportunities in Treasurys, and don't let anyone tell you there are."

Instead, Ms. Cohen yesterday said she put client money to work in a new batch of Citigroup Inc. preferred stock that began trading this week. Those shares yield 8.125%. "There are some really sumptuous yields available in preferreds these days," she says.

She also says that individual investors should look selectively at junk bonds, despite the growing risk aversion in the markets overall. She points to the 6.85% General Motors Corp. bonds that mature Oct. 15 of this year. Though there's always risk of default when you buy junk bonds, Ms. Cohen says the timeframe is so short that "I think individual investors are absolutely fine with this kind of paper." The current yield is about 7.9%."

The only time I've ever "rushed into" buying anything was if it was a solid company that had a 'super BAD PRESS' day. I bought into PG when the 'devil was in control', bought into ... I forget the TA, but it was the one the gov used... as soon as I could after 9/11.

I've made some mistakes, but I've only lost $$ on 2 or 3 stocks, and not that much.

As I type this, I'm still seeing the post by Jkom51, that was quoted... relating to bonds. Hello!! Tax Free Municipal Bonds are waaaayyyy different. That's where my money is, and I will swear to it (my money is where my mouth is).

If you are a believer of buying beaten up equities, check out XLF. It is a Financial Sector ETF. Since it is a sector play, you don't have individual company risk.

Here's a link:

XLF

"Of course, I'm not talking about dumping everything I have into the market, but it might be an interesting time to dollar cost average into a down market."

During my 40 years of stock market experience, I've found that it's near impossible to call a market bottom. I've also learned that buying on the way down is risky. BTW, the market saying for buying on the way down is "Trying to catch a falling knife".

Normally, bear markets do not end with a "V" bottom. Usually, there is a succession of lower lows and lower highs. Bear markets suck all of the hope out of casual investors. Once the casual investors give up, the market rallies, leaving them in the dust.

The question at the moment is "is the bear market different this time?" (we've seen a drop of 20% from the October highs so it is indeed a bear market). I don't think that it is different this time (BTW, the last time that a large number of people thought it was "different this time" was at the peak of the dot.com bubble!).

The fundamentals point to a reversal around midyear. If you think this is an opportunity, I think you should buy on market weakness and average down. More specifically, invest 20% of your available capital on the next sign of market weakness. Do the same for each new leg down.

I think that the Dow will close the year above 14,000. Even though you won't buy at the absolute bottom, you'll still generate a handsome profit. If you get paralyzed and don't act, you'll make nothing.

Remember that the above advice is worth what you paid for it. 8^)

gina_in_fl-"As I type this, I'm still seeing the post by Jkom51, that was quoted... relating to bonds. Hello!! Tax Free Municipal Bonds are waaaayyyy different. That's where my money is, and I will swear to it (my money is where my mouth is)."

Some food for thought regarding "safe" Muni bonds.

Ratings Collapse by Martin D. Weiss Ph.D./Dec 07'

"Here's what's happening:

First, MBIA, the world's largest bond insurer, is on the verge of losing its triple-A rating.

Second, that single event could trigger a veritable ratings collapse downgrades on the one hundred and seventy-three thousand municipal bonds, mortgage-backed securities and other collaterized debt obligations (CDOs) that MBIA guarantees.

Third, the three other large bond insurers  Ambac, FGIC and CIFG  could also lose their triple-A ratings, spreading the crisis to nearly all of the nation's $2.3 trillion of insured securities.

Fourth, since lower-rated bonds are invariably lower-valued bonds, when they're downgraded, there will be an across-the-board downward adjustment in bond prices  a bond market crash.

Fifth, investors may begin to seriously question Wall Street's entire system for rating the nation's $2.6 trillion in municipal bonds ... $10.6 trillion in corporate bonds ... and $1.9 trillion of commercial paper and other money market instruments.

In short, this crisis could raise doubts about the true value of all non-Treasury securities  whether insured or uninsured, long term or short term, at risk or not at risk.

The net result:

An Unprecedented Flight
From Risk to Safety

Investors will rush to sell any bond or money market instrument in doubt  not only the mortgage-backed securities and CDOs that are already pariahs of the investment world today, but also ...

Local and state tax-exempt bonds

A wide range of corporate bonds

Government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Commercial paper

Bond market mutual funds, and even ...

Certain money market funds, such as those that have invested heavily in commercial paper.

At the same time, investors will rush to buy ...

Treasury securities

Treasury-only money market funds

Safe-haven foreign currencies like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc

Gold, gold ETFs and mining shares, plus ...

Virtually any investment perceived to be immune from the ratings collapse.

Needless to say, the Fed will respond with massive money pumping. And if MBIA can receive a massive capital infusion, a bond market panic may be avoided for now.

But any capital infusion is unlikely to be more than a temporary band-aid. No matter how the crisis is ultimately resolved, you're bound to see a substantial flight to safety."

A link that might be useful:
www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Ratings-Collapse-4

You can earn more money in an interest bearing checking account than in short term U.S. treasuries.

Gold is interesting but most investment advisers recommend no more than 5% of your portfolio in gold.

Deer in the headlights,

What about gold shares? What companies do you like?

Any comments on Barrick (ABX)?

Not too enthused about bullion - gotta pay somebody to store it.

Doesn't pay me anything while I hold it.

ole joyful

old f@rt 8^), on the chance that you are directing your question to me, a pure gold play is the exchange traded fund GLD. Its price changes are directly linked to the price of gold. If you buy stock in a gold mining company, you assume company specific risk. That's fine if you want to invest in a particular company, however, if your objective is to invest in gold, GLD is better.

BTW, my handle is one of the nicknames of Natty Bumppo, the main character in the James Fenimore Cooper Leatherstocking novels. Here's more info:

Cooper

Check this out:

SPY Graph

Select 3m on Zoom.

This may be the start of the next leg down. Do you have the cahonas to pull the trigger during the next few weeks?

I don't think that we are at the bottom yet. At this point, I believe that the current down leg has a way to go. Also, I think that we'll have at least one more down leg.

What do you think?

I think Id agree the market has a little ways to go yet before hitting bottom. Not only has the story of the CDOs not completely unwound yet, but the CLOs are following close on their heels as a potential trouble area.

OTOH, imagine if the politicians had the brains/guts to stabilize the bond insurers and the mortgage market, instead of sending out insignificant useless rebate checks, or even (gasp) not spending $16 BILLION per month on a war that will never be won under current conditions. Think of what our surplus might have been had the current administration not been determined to spend it all as fast as possible? And they certainly didn't spend it on the middle class, who have steadily lost buying power over the last decade or so.

Ah well, rant over! Personally, we invest on a salary deduction basis into a diversified portfolio with a heavy weighting towards international funds (currently about 39%). The dollar cost averaging is what we're aiming for. Because our portfolio is exclusively in 457/401 plans, we don't buy stocks, only funds.

I'm happy to see more people participating in this forum, especially beginners who are trying to learn what investing is all about. But I still hold that most people don't know enough to risk investing into individual stocks. Even worse, they demonstrate very poor instincts about when to buy or sell. This results in a lot of them either losing money or making mediocre returns in the long-term.

My DH is a state employee, and thus part of CalPERS, the largest pension fund in the world. They run incredible, extensive classes and seminars for all employees, free of charge, to learn more about investing. They offer free CFP consultations and reduced rates on insurance. PERS vets all fund offerings and drops any fund that can't meet minimum return levels three years running; plus expenses are low and trades are free.

And what happens? The majority of employees keep over 70% of their money in low-yielding bond funds, despite the fact PERS offers excellent equity funds.

Becausethey're scared of losing money. So the 22% drop in the S&P 500 index fund in 2001 darn near made them c**p in their pants. Employee money poured into the bond funds, getting a "safe" 3-4% return but completely missing the stunning run-up in the 2002-2006 bull market.

In the bear market of 2000-2001 we had a total 26% loss in portfolio assets. My DH asked if we should do anything differently and I told him absolutely not. At that time our portfolio was all in US equity funds (there was no international offering then). Since we were in for the long haul I knew it was best to sit tight. We rode the bull market back up to even (where we were before the decline started) in 18 months and then double-digit returns through 2006.

The single foreign fund offering from PERS? Sadly, most employees won't touch it despite a 39% return in 2005 and 28% return in 2006. On advice from an independent CFP, we risked 50% of our portfolio in 2005 on that fund and it helped us to a 26% gain that year (BTW, he wasn't expecting us to do that; he was advising clients to go 20% international). In mid-2006 we found professional advice to diversify our portfolio into a less-volatile mix (my DH is getting closer to retirement age), but we are still heavily into equities, like ole_joyful is.

Turned out to be good timing we missed a bit of the run-up in certain sectors in 3Q06 but with less volatility, avoided a bigger downturn in 4Q06. We ended with 11% in 2006 not anywhere near our highest but still a satisfactory return, considering I would have been content with an 8% return in such a crazy market. For us thats been an average return, since I discount contributions to the portfolio when figuring ROI.

For every investor its going to be a different road to success. Dollar-cost averaging, a very modest but steady contribution percentage of salary, taking on a higher-risk strategy, and utilizing the excellent resources offered to us, have worked for us. Admittedly some of it was plain dumb luck, LOL! But Ive taken a modest total of employer/employee contributions and more than quadrupled it in 20 years, even using unexciting mutual funds instead of showy individual stocks.

In another quarter Ill look at the portfolio mix and talk it over with our advisors to decide whether I want to rebalance anywhere to do some fine-tuning. But right now Im comfortable with how were positioned, because although I dont think weve reached "bottom", the corporate fundamentals are mostly very good. Barring the usual unforeseen disasters, I expect the market to start bouncing upwards by the end of the year or 1Q09.

Investing, like real estate, is all in the long view of things. Nobody makes money every single year, but a thoughtful approach helps bring about reasonable long-term gains, which is what everyone needs.

Plenty of good advice, jkom.

SPY is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) based on the S&P 500 Index. I'm using it as a proxy of the overall U.S. equities market for purposes of this discussion.

Techs advanced strongly today. Have the last few days been a "Bear Market Trap" or is this the bottom?

What do you think?

Has the market hit bottom?

I have no idea. But I'm inclined to doubt it.

For one thing, I think that the sub-prime mortgage problem has not fully seen the cleansing rays of the sunshine yet.

And the gov't.'s current action of throwing some more money at it so soon after earlier and so recently offering remedial supports leads my suspicious mind to think that they don't, either.

On the other hand ...

There's a guy who writes in what I consider Canada's best personal financial management magazine who has written about guru Benjamin Graham's system, and given us the names of a few U.S. stocks that he has found which survived Graham's exacting standards at various times. That list included five stocks when chosen last September, one being Leggett & Platt LEG at $19.16 on Sept. 28, 2007.

He has developed his own modest modification of the Graham system, which some years has offered several stocks, and one recent year only two.

His track record (not according to calendar years) has been:

... Period ..... Stingy Stocks .. S&P500 (SPY)ETF .. +/-
2001 - 2002 ...... - 1.90% .......... -22.10% ........ 20.2
2002 - 2003 ....... 33.80% ........... 23.00% ........ 10.8
2003 - 2004 ....... 29.80% ........... 13.40% ........ 16.4
2004 - 2005 ....... 29.20% ............. 8.20% ........ 21.0
2005 - 2006 ....... 28.90% ........... 12.60% ........ 16.3
2006 - 2007 ...... - 5.50% ............. 7.40% ....... -12.9
Total gain
since inception .. 168.00% ........... 42.10% ....... 125.9

He told us recently of five stocks that made it through his sieve this year; one of them was Leggett & Platt LEG, priced at $20.58 at Dec. 2 when chosen, $16.26 on Jan 7, $19.22 on Feb. 1 and $17.35 on Feb. 13 close.

Three of the five were on his list last year (which also contained five stocks), and all three went down during 2007. LEG was one, and priced at $23.69 on Dec. 2, 2006.

I have no idea what may result were one to choose that stock. I haven't bought any, but am considering it.

I remember about 25 years ago, when I sold a wide variety of mutual funds for a year, being impressed that the Templeton Growth Fund, which recently celebrated its 50th anniversary, one of the older ones around, after having I think it was a couple of loss years in '73 and '74 ... had a couple of years of substantial growth right after that. I have seen similar results with a few other investment systems managed by reasonably skilled experts ... also by the market as a whole.

I've made three purchases since early November (the first in quite a long time) and plan to make some more during coming months.

That could develop into several such entries, for I expect to have one major position (Canada's largest phone co. - for years called our major "widows' and orphans'" stock: not sure which best characterizes me) bought out and (drat it!) privatized, which will free up some more reinvestable dollars. And leave some income tax to pay, next year.

I need more international exposure, as most of my assets are Canadian: about 2% of world markets.

Perhaps some of you should consider some Canadian stocks: similar market, stable economy and politically, inter-related, good oil and gas, plus other resources exposure.

On the other hand ... a Canadian Dollar cost a U.S. person about 65 cents four or five years ago and about 85 cents last year, now it's within a cent of a Dollar, one way or the other. Which sure makes me unhappy with regard to the current valuation of my U.S. ones, plus other foreign stocks, as they are New York based via ADRs, but some benefit from appreciation of their local currency compared to the U.S. Dollar.

Most advisors seem to think that the Canadian Dollar has more or less shot its bolt, in fact, may retreat some ... which would please our manufacturers, as a number of them have been slaughtered in recent times, when doing over-border business and paid in U.S. Dollars.

I'm looking at ways that I may be able to buy in other parts of the world without going through New York. That appears to be quite a difficult task ... differing regulation, evaluation and publicity of stocks available, and friction costs are substantial, I think.

Anyway, good wishes for increasing skill at investing. I thought to say, not only regarding what to buy, but when to buy it ... but, as a large number of wise investors have said, over the years, trying to time the market is a fool's game.

Sir John Templeton used to say at the annual meeting of his fund that he believed in staying fully invested, through thick and thin markets.

Timing's hard for many of us to play, in any case, for usually we save a little at a time so the simplest thing is to buy when we have some money ... getting fewer shares for the same amount of money when prices are high, and more when prices are low.

Has it occurred to you that, when withdrawing, the wisest way would be to use the inverse of dollar cost averagig (putting in the same number of dollars, regardless of prices of stock): liquidate the same number of shares at a time, despite number of dollars produced, thus living higher on the hog (maybe trading cars/going on fancier travels or tours) when prices are high, and eating turnips when prices are low?

Some more food for thought, I hope. Your contributions anticipated and welcome.

ole joyful

"but, as a large number of wise investors have said, over the years, trying to time the market is a fool's game."

Peter Lynch is one of them. I try to time the market when adding new money. It's sort of a game for me. I think the last time that I sold anything was 1999.

On the other hand, I believe that this is a great time to buy equities and it will probably get better. I don't think we've bottomed yet.

"Has it occurred to you that, when withdrawing, the wisest way would be to use the inverse of dollar cost averagig (putting in the same number of dollars, regardless of prices of stock): liquidate the same number of shares at a time, despite number of dollars produced, thus living higher on the hog (maybe trading cars/going on fancier travels or tours) when prices are high, and eating turnips when prices are low?"

Yes, it has. Although I think a better strategy is to keep several years expenses in cash equivalents. Sell equities only when the market is making new highs and hold equities when the market is making new lows. Nothing is more hazardous to your portfolio's health than selling at the bottom to pay living expenses.

With the proviso that I'm living within my pensions, with some to spare (more or less a guaranteed income) ...

... I rather doubt that I'd choose to sell near the bottom.

Would more than likely use some of the certificates as collateral to make a different line of credit loan from the one I might have been using for investment (as interest wouldn't be deductible) to live on over the temporary period until the market recovered.

As you know, within a short period after a substantial decline, quite of ten the market makes a substantial advance.

Time might/will tell about what I might choose to do ... it would depend on the circumstances.

ole joyful

I agree. Often the advance is dramatic and easy to miss if you are trying to time the market.

My point was that monthly fixed price or fixed quantity withdrawals almost guarantee that you will sell some of your equities at or near the market bottoms. However, I agree with your point that fixed quantity withdrawals will do less damage to your portfolio than fixed price withdrawals during a market downturn. Of course, this assumes that you can reduce your living expenses by 25% or more when the market isn't doing well.

A better strategy may be to withdraw monthly living expenses from the portion of your portfolio that is in cash equivalents (for example, a money market fund). Replenish the withdrawn cash with dividends and bond interest throughout the year. If more funds are needed, sell some equities when the market is setting new intermediate term highs. Basically, try to avoid any equity sales near a market bottom.

If you can cover your monthly living expenses with your pensions, portfolio withdrawal timing is not an issue for you.