I'm new to tomato growing but I did start my own seeds last year so I'll try and answer. If you have a good setup and the seeds are fresh you should have better then 85% germination rate. I'd say more then 75% make it to transplanting stage and probally around 70 percent make it to fruit setting stage and 69% give you harvestable fruit. I think this is a low estimate so you should out of a hundred seeds get between 70-100% of them giving you fruit. If your just talking seed to transplant then from 80-100% should make it.

Hope this helps

But if I plant 100 tomato seeds in little pots - how many do you think I can expect to make it?

Simply no way to know. Out of 100 seeds planted in little pots, not all will germinate anyway. How many plants do you have room to grow for the season and do you have friends you can gift all the extras to?

As you get more practice growing from seed you'll get a higher and higher germination and survival rates. At first, maybe 50% but that is just a guess based on the many posts from other new growers who lose that many. A few years from now, maybe 90%.

And as you get more experience in growing them and coping with pests and disease and soil needs, the day comes when you can expect all of your transplants to make for the season - barring hailstorms, rabbits, groundhogs, or a cattle stampede through the garden. ;)

So how many plants do you have room to grow?

Good luck.

Dave

Typical germination rates are known for many crops. Newbies can expect ~10-35% less depending upon crop, skill, intent, time spent, attention spent. This season I was 97% of all pots with a suspected bad batch of a particular variety of pepper, overall germination was ~92% of all seeds (including bad batch).

Dan

Thanks for all the information and experiences

Well Dave - I am not sure

I just wanted to try a smattering of different tomatoes and veggies and the seeds came in minimums so I thought, since it is relatively inexpensive to plant the seed in the peat pot - I'd sow as many as I could.

I have - don't laugh - 400 seeds germinating and sprouting- I went a tad overboard. I got a little out of control. Like 240 tomatoes + spinnach + arugula + peppers + Lavender + Honeysuckles

It is a tad ludicrous - considering I've never gardened before.

I have a yard for the first time - we moved in last spring and am yearning for a garden to tend to - We are building raised beds around the parimeter of the yard.

So - assuming even half make it - I guess I'll be at the Fort Worth Plant Swap in April :D --- maybe someone will trade me for some blooming posies.

Blessedfrog, post pictures - I want to see your 300 sprouts!

LOL I know what you mean about being carried away as a first timer - I have room for maybe 20 tomato plants, and starting from zero in January I have now via internet ordering or receiving in trade 18 varieties of tomatoes (and of course I want to plant more than one of most of them).

My strategy is to start at least twice as many as I have room for, plus add in some that I plan to give my mother, sister and good gardener friend. If I have some left over after that, I have other pretty-good gardener friends and neighbors that I MIGHT trust with my babies. :) I can just imagine me on my neighbor's doorstep: "Hi, I know you sometimes grow tomatoes. Here is a Marianna's Peace plant, you need to be really even with the watering because it's prone to cracking, don't water too much, and you have to stake it, and whatever you do, if there is going to be a frost, you HAVE to run out in your pajamas that night and cover it..." Door slams in face!

Growing tomatoes is utterly addictive - I have now ordered seeds from SEVEN different online seed companies, for either one or two packets per order (imagine all the shipping I've paid for). I think I'm done, then I read about something I just have to have and a few clicks later, I've ordered "just one more" variety.

Oh dear Cleo
I know
Exactamundo
Online seed ordering is dangerous stuff
Especially late at night
Tho I go just as nuts in a store

I will snap some photos when i get home
It is a total mess of little pots in plastic containers all over half a room

I kept running outto the market for more peat pots

oh yes right Cleo
HAHA and right on

I am sure people will be running away after I gift everyone a potted spinach plant

Hate to drone on here

but

i still have seeds due in the mail :)

We can get together and open a weekend nursery

blessedfrog: Alot of those who grow from seed prefer plastic or styrofoam disposable cups over the peat pots. Maybe you can try some of them also and see which works best for you. And you can find them at most any store....even those without seed packets to tempt you :)

Why not just save some your seeds from the packets for next year instead of planting all of them now. That way you won't have to spend near the money at seed ordering time next year. Saving seeds for 3 or 4 or even 5 years is easy to do.

Hi naturegirl

:)

oh really
well maybe i will try that too

i was attracted to the peat pots - they made me feel like I wouldn't tear the baby roots to shreads trying to replant it

but the next batch will definately go in cups

Oh yes grandma - I guess I could do that - do I put them in the freezer? or just pack them away somewhere?

Right

Lots of people have lots of methods

:)

Germination percentages are usually reflective of the age of the seeds. Last year I was working wuth USDA seeds and in each tray I sowed 10 seeds. Some germinated at 90% and, most of the rest between 60 and 80% and one tray gave me one lonely seedling (but it grew into an amazing plant!).

There's no way you can predict germination, seedling survival rate and fruition. Mother Nature is still God in the Garden.

T

blessedfrog - I am totally on board with grandma44 - Of my 18 types of seeds (several of which are still in the mail somewhere!), I am only planting a small number of them. I have this whole goofy matrix in my geeky log, e.g.:

Brandywine OTV:
Total seeds: 25
Wintersown: 0
Indoor sow for me: 3
Indoor sow for others: 1
Margin of error: 1
Total: 5

So in other words, I should have 20 Brandywine seeds that I will be saving for next year (or 15 if I plant two seeds per cell). This was the only way I could think of to deal with having 18 varieties of seed - 3 of which I am not going to even try this year - no room under the lights or in the garden.

I think if you store your seed in a cool dry and dark place, you will be fine for next year.

The only problem with my grand plan is that I have about 20 or 30 OTHER varieties in my log that I don't have but want to try next year! However, what I hope to do is to do a lot of trades. People on this forum are very generous, and I have a few types that people seem to covet (Marianna's Peace, Paul Robeson) so watch for me on Exchanges in the fall! :)

I started 4 seeds of 9 different varieties on 2/03 and got 35 plants out of the 36 seeds. And some seeds were 4 years old. That was actually bad luck, because now I am having a tough time dealing with all the plants. This year I said I was going to cut back on the number of plants I grow! I hate to euthanize the spares. Once they are a couple of weeks old they are past the danger point and they will ALL become adult fruiting plants (unless I purposely trash some)

Bob

As others have said there isn't any way to predict germination rates.

There is an old saying that has many variations:
One for the rook and one for the crow,
One to rot and one to grow.

So, four seeds for every plant that you want to grow is a good guideline. I generally do a little more than that. If I want two plants for a given variety I plant 10 seeds. Keep in mind I give a lot of seedlings away.

Good luck.

Randy

So, four seeds for every plant that you want to grow is a good guideline.

Whoa Nelly! If you get 25% you are doing something wrong or you need a new supplier.

I'm two seeds per cell and I usually get two plants. Follow directions and you'll get the same.

Germination % of the typical seed you get from the typical seed supplier is very high, if you get a reputable supplier. My seeds are from Burpee, Territorial, and Totally Tomatoes and give me excellent %, still overall in the 90%s and I'm in the third year on some packets.

Dan

I'd agree with daylily's reply. About 70-80% should sprout after 3 weeks with the correct care, possibly more.

@dan_staley:
I think you're misinterpretting what I'm saying. I did NOT for one skinny second indicate or imply that I was getting a 25% germination rate. I said the old rule of thumb to plant 4 seeds for every plant you want in the garden was a good guideline. That is safe. It is better to have too many than too few IMHO.

BTW, I don't get that many tomato seeds from seed suppliers. Most of my seeds are from seeds I've saved and I generally get >80% germination rate. Then I selectively pick the best. For instance I plant 10 seeds. Let's say 8 germinate. Of those 8 I pick the best 4 to pot up and grow those through the hardening off process. Then I select the best 2 and put them in the garden and give the rest away.

Randy

p.s. Your comment "Follow directions and you'll get the same." Tell you what when you grow a bigger plant than the one in the picture in the hyperlink below then I'll ask for your input and follow your directions, until then I'll keep doing it my way.

Here is a link that might be useful: {{gwi:90247}}

There is no way to know the true answer, but I know how I will do things going forward...

First off, generally speaking the more plants you have the better odds are you will have at least a few not only live but will be healthy.

What I did (this year) was plant 3 seeds in each jiffy pellet. When I only got 30 seeds per pack it limited me more than I would have liked.

What I had was in some pellets 3 seedlings and in other pellets none, or just one.... so I ended up culling what would otherwise be healthy plants (and were healthier than some of the others that were just one in a pellet).

What I will do going forward is put my seeds in a sandwich bag with a wet paper towel... as they sprout I will use tweezers and transplant them one at a time...

In the end, instead of having 10 seedlings (at best) you could have 25 to 30 seedlings... which then increases odds...

Inevitably as you transplant from here to there to another there will be some that die so the more you get the better.

It then won't be such a 'do or die' situation...

I started out this year (for example) with 7 different varieties of tomatoes and about 80 plus sprouts....

Now the plants are transplated into cups and are generally growing well, but there was some mortality....

Now I am down to just under 60 plants....across my 7 varieties....

If I had played my cards right I could have feasibly had 150 plants to work with across my 7 different varieties, which leaves room for error especially for a newbie like me....

I wouldnt need to plant all those into the ground, but it would have been nice to be able to take the best pick of the litter for what I will ultimately put in the ground vs planting what is left over after goofs or nature, or whatever....

Randy, four seeds per plant is wasteful, esp for those who purchase them. The 70-80% figure given above is a good rule of thumb and should save the newbies time planting cells they don't need and money culling seedlings they don't need.

You can do what you wish to get your plants to grow that large (I'll spare you the pix from my landscape design business or my 30+ years of gardening).

Dan

@dan_staley:

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then. I think it is best that beginners over plant until they see what their individual success rate is then let them adjust the numbers themselves. You obviously feel differently. I think it is possible perhaps even probable that newbies will lose plants (break stems) when they pot up. You obviously feel differently.

And, if you really want to save money I would think that growing from starts (transplants) is more economical.

"You can do what you wish to get your plants to grow that large"
Certain varieties of well grown indeterminate plants grow that large. They were NOT all jacked up on growth hormones if that is what you're implying.

"I'll spare you the pix from my landscape design business or my 30+ years of gardening"
I don't mind. I don't think anyone else would either. Keep it specific to tomatoes of course. Just because there is a link it doesn't mean one has to follow it.

And, of course what they're striving for is good healthy seedlings. So, as an example I've included a link to a picture of some of my seedlings (you can tell they're mine because I didn't release Paw Paw Yellow to the public until this year). At the most they may have had one treatment of diluted blue juice, but I don't think so. I don't recall, but I'm not one to fertilize my seedlings much.

Randy

Back to dan:
I've taken on the challenge of fixing a beginners seedlings. With all your years of experience you probably have too. Here are some pictures, you can post yours too. The point being that transplanting seedlings in this condition can be tricky even for an experienced gardener let alone a beginner. In other words beginners might lose some in the transplanting process. Which is another reason to over plant. Actually I don't know why I'm wasting so much time, I made a recommendation they can choose to follow it or not and you, well your mind is already made up.

Here are two Cherokee Purple seedlings I got from a first time grower that I took on as a challenge:
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a81/WVTomatoMan/GardenCPSpindly01.jpg

They were obviously light starved and I suspect the planting medium was not that good. So I transplanted them:
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a81/WVTomatoMan/GardenCPSpindly02.jpg

Here they are about a week or so later:
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a81/WVTomatoMan/GardenCPSpindly03.jpg

And here is the finished product:
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a81/WVTomatoMan/GardenCPSpindly04.jpg

Here is a link that might be useful:

Nice lookin' seedlings, wvtomato

@tn_veggie_gardner:

Thank you, thank you very much. *using my best Elvis Presley voice* :)

Randy

For tomatoes I plant exactly double the number of seeds I want for plants, usually no more than two per variety. Occasionally some may not germinate, but I've always had at least one of the seeds of each variety take.

If only one germinates, I may do one of two things. I may start make-up seeds to fill in the gaps, but that's usually too much trouble. I usually coddle the ones that are growing and take a sucker from the plant if I want another one of that variety, root it, and plant it alongside its twin.

I have to admit that I'm puzzled about why someone would try to germinate every seed they have when they can't grow them. I think of seeds and plants as miracles of life and possibly our food for when the alarmingly-predicted hard times hit, so I don't understand why anyone would waste large numbers of them.

But that's just me and not my seeds!

What hasn't been mentioned here is that those of you who buy seeds or receive them in a trade usually have no idea of what the seed age is, and all things being equal as to how you sow your seeds in what artificial mix, when and how you transplant them after they have 1-2 true leaves, what you transplant them to, how you grow them on, any amendment used, etc. there WILL be differences in germination percentages, count on it, based on seed age alone.

One example.

I used to make seed offers here at GW and offered several hundred varieties at a time. And I asked for feedback on germination percentages. These were my own saved seeds so I knew exactly what year the seed was produced.

Well I remember that I made a seed offer here in late Fall of 2004 and I was offering seeds with ages from 1995 and up, having offered seeds from 1991 to 1994 in a previous seed offer.

Let's say variety X was offered, seed fresh from the summer of 2004 and germinated the very next Spring.

For a single variety I got back reports where folks got from 100% germination down to zero, that's right, zero germination, with most being in the 80-90% range.

Which says that if 10 folks sow seeds of the same variety from the same supplier with the same packed for date, or even known seed age, there could be a HUGE range of results.

And the packed for date only tells you when the seeds were packed, not when they were produced.

The only place I know of where ALL tomato seeds sold are less than 2 yo is Sandhill Preservation.

Seeds being sold by commercial places will have different seed ages for different varieties as they rotate out and replace seed as needed and some but not all places do germination tests before they sell the seeds.

So I agree with the others who have posted about the fact that there's no way to know how many seeds will germinate or how many will grow into great plants in the garden and bear well.

But when it comes to seed starting I tend to agree with Randy that you should oversow. He says 4 seeds to get one good seedling, and I agree. I usually sow 5 seeds for each variety to get two good plants to the garden.

There are just so many variables that enter into all of this that it makes no sense to me to skimp on how many seeds/variety one sows.

Is oversowing, as some define it, wasteful? I dunno, I don't 'think so as all of us sit in front of our not cheap computers with added software, etc, and spend on this and that,etc., but do have priorities when it comes to how we spend our money. I don't buy tomato seed b'c it comes to me, and I won't trade tomato seed either, except for certain situations, but I know, knowing me, that oversowing a few seeds for anything I don't consider to be wasteful and that's because gardening is my life and my love.

And if it's considered wasteful to use more seeds than some think necessary then save your own seeds. Go to the top of this first page, click on the FAQ link and scroll down to the excellent article on how to prevent Cross pollination.

Whether it's a waste of money to try and ensure that you have enough good transplants to set out that you hope the critters and diseases and all else don't get them is, I think, a decision that each person has to make depending on what their goals and expectations are for growing tomatoes.

Carolyn, who gulps at the prices of some seeds these days but she wants her Savor F1 melons and will pay the price. She does think that some sources for tomato seed have prices she would never ever pay, as in too expensive, and here I speak of OP, not F1 hybrid varieties, but again,it really is a personal choice what one pays for seeds/plants of anything. And a personal choice as to how many seeds of anything are to be planted. With experience some of these questions are answered, so it pays to get older and wiser re gardening in terms of experience. Yes, I'm on the downside of the life cycle, but still hanging in there.LOL

haha...I live close to Nashville, not Memphis, so Elvis impressions/voices are optional. ;)