I base my predictions on looking out the window! LOL

Seriously, you obviously canÂt count on any of the predictions, but I watch all three of our local channels for weather, and then combine that with NOAA to decide for myself what I think if going to happen. I think NOAA is USUALLY the closest, but when I "average them out," I often come up with something pretty close! I like to watch the long-term forecast just to get an idea of what the possibilities are down the roadÂknowing they may or may not ever actually happen. It helps along the front range of Colorado to watch where the lows are goingÂif they move over the TX/OK panhandles, weÂre probably going to get dumped on, but being on the north end of DEN, I also know that IÂm less likely to get as much as the folks down on the south end who will probably get hammered, so I think it helps a LOT to just be aware of your local "weather factors!"

Is there a chance that NOAA was right for any of the folks near you, like if they predict rain for "Denver," the south end might get drenched while I wonÂt get a single drop, or the airport will get rain but all of us east of there (and thatÂs ALL of us) donÂt get anythingÂso technically NOAA was right. So maybe NOAA was right for you, but not right for YOU! ;-)

I enjoy watching the weatherÂESPECIALLY when IÂm working! Like to know where the bumps might beÂor where I MIGHT get stuck for endless hours in an airport. (But the Weather Channel is all but useless! And that's all I have on layovers!)

Skybird

No ah, NOAA got it wrong throughout their region. I checked the 2 day history for points north, south, and at nearly 2,000 feet higher in elevation - no precip.

The rain has been in western Montana and east of the divide. And, they've been getting it nearly all week.

The last day for measurable precipitation at the Weather Service offices was the 14th - last week.

I do find that NOAA is the best compared to the TV stations. I once asked one of the TV forecasters what we could expect for that day - - he gave me a one-sentence answer and then said, "But, I'm usually wrong." I tried not to agree with him.

DigitS

"Weatherman/woman: The only job were you can be wrong 90% of the time and still have a job" - My Husband

B

Alright guys! Be nice! I'm not sure even God would be right half the time when it comes to weather! ;-)

Critters. Birds, squirrels, cattle are all better indicators than the fancy-schmancy computer generated maps on TV. Tell me where the fronts are, what the wind direction, jet stream, dew point, etc. are and I'll guess as good as they do.

*chirp* *chirp* ;)

Ya, and if the livestock, deer etc are running, you better be long gone.

Yesterday I was pelted, literally pelted, by 2 drops of rain. A few moments later, I turned the sprinklers on new plantings in the veggie garden (lots of new onion seedlings went out yesterday :o).

I was told that 28 miles away, light rain fell for about an hour. Slight problem - - NOAA hadn't shown any probability of rain yesterday morning.

What has worked fairly well for me is having an understanding of the prevailing winds. Here, I look off to the southwest. Going on the weather service webpages allows me to look at the radar and I'm generally interested in the southwest. It is important, however, to click the Short Range Base Reflectivity Loop. That way I can assess the density of the rainfall and see its movement.

I used to take a look at "current conditions" for weather stations along the line of the storm but that is a little time-consuming. Nevertheless, it gave me a good idea how much to expect in the way of rainfall.

This gives me an idea for the present and about 24 hours into the future - at best. Beyond that, I am at sea.

One thing that bothers me a bit about the NOAA website - and usually I visit daily. The willingness of these folks to make format changes, sometimes dramatic, can be disconcerting.

DigitS
It is best to read the weather forecast before we pray for rain. ~ Mark Twain

I enjoy visiting the NOAA sites as well. Our area gets coverage from the offices in Grand Junction, Flagstaff, and Albuquerque. What I find most helpful is the "forecast discussion" section, where the guys tell what they think. This varies considerably, the best one I've run across is the guy on the night shift in Grand Junction, he'll say what he thinks, as well as what all the models are saying. Somebody else does another 'discussion' about 4 pm mountain time.

Here is a link that might be useful: grand junction weather guy

Remember the Farmer's Almanac? Well, their weather report (the moon( tells us we should be doing this:

Things to do--April 2007

 Bake 22, 23, 29, 30
 Can Fruits and Vegetables 4-6, 13, 14
 Dry Fruits and Vegetables 7, 8
 Cut Firewood 1, 17-30
 Cut Hair to Increase Growth 17, 18, 22, 23,
 Cut Hair to Retard Growth 2, 3, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 16
 Mow to Increase Growth 1, 17-30
 Mow to Retard Growth 2-16
 Castrate Farm Animals 7-14
 Harvest 10-16
 Prune Trees 4-6, 9, 10
 Wean 7-14
 Hunt 17-23
 Fish Mornings: 13, 14 Evenings: 4, 5, 22, 23,

Am I confused? Where are the people located that are doing any of these things? I tried their weather report for Zone 4 (5 was UT, NV, NM, etc). Appears that the Farmers A has gone to the side of the weather people and somehow became a tad slow in the head. It was a bit humorous though.

David,

I lived on acreage in Palisade for 5 years..33 1/2 rd. When we moved there the realtor told us GJ was 10 degrees warmer than Denver. He was right...but lied a tad. It was 10 degrees warmer in the summer, the winter was bitter with fog and little sunshine. At least during the time we were there, maybe this has changed. Loved living among the orchards though and miss fresh black cherries.

Ah, ha! Does this explain David's ability to ripen 80+ day tomatoes in his garden??

Steve's digits

Raining yesterday PM and today . . . Thank Heavens! The peas were just not going to come up without some surface moisture. The larger garden doesn't have irrigation water yet. Fortunately, the salad garden has water.

I've got no choice in the matter as to when the irrigation is turn on but like to pretend that it isn't necessary during the 1st 6 weeks of the growing season. Never, never has that been true but hope springs eternal.

Of course, then it rains all of June . . .

DigitS

Our irrigation is, theoretically, on. However, I am at the very end of the ditch, with some 490 (or so it seems) guys before me. Usually, they start May 1st, however it's been so warm they've put it on early. Most folks up the ditch use either side roll or gated pipe. Every morning, they go out and shut the water off and move the side roll, then turn it back on, the process takes 10 - 15 min. During that time, the water stays in the ditch. This, inevitably, occurs when the ditch rider checks to see if, at the end of the ditch were I am, there is enough water, and there is because the side roll guys are moving their pipe.

Ditch rider goes somewhere else, and the ditch dries up.

The irrigation ditches in town have water in them, but we are up on a mesa and there is nothing in ours yet. We are supposed to be able to use irrigation water starting May 1st. Our sprinkler system and sod were put in so late last year that the ditch was already dry, so I'm not even sure if the pump we have works or not.

Speaking of bad forecasts ... we were supposed to have winds in the 10 - 15 mph range today, and once again it is blowing around 25 mph. This makes the 5th windy day this week. I know the Wyoming have it way worse, and I shouldn't complain ... however, I am tired of the wind!

We have three ditches near us. Farmer's Highline is on. Church ditch is not and that's the one we have rights to. I've been having to use house water.

Us too, cnetter, though we did get a good soaking rain yesterday. We have Kentucky Blue Grass and it was getting pretty thirsty so I had to use house water on it last week. Yes, I know KBG is a water hog, but my plan is to gradually keep increasing the flower beds until there is no sod left. I'm hoping if I do it slow enough DH won't notice it's gone, LOL! The landscaper guy came and started up the system, replaced broken sprinkler heads, etc. since it was still under warranty, and an electrician hooked up the electrical for the pump, so we are all set.

The ole" saying "We had an inch of rain, one drop was an inch". I always chuckled when the forecast was dry thundershowers. If it isn't going to land on the ground, why do they even report it.

High, I too am losing grass as fast as I can by adding flower beds and walking paths. Plus my alternative grass of wild flower seeds and clover are peeking through.

Oooo, wild flowers!

I'm sorry to report that the nice rain we had here at home was nothing in our large veggie garden 20 miles away. Dad referred to it as a fizzle at his/our garden (apparently a cross between a drizzle and a phooey! ;o).

I've asked the neighbors to "borrow" their water if there's no rain in the next few days. (Nice to have nice neighbors, neighbor. :o)

Humid enuf that it was foggy this morning. The story on the teevee is that CO is way under for temperature today. Warming in the interior NW and I'm hoping that a good deal of sunshine will pull up a thundercloud from some wet soil somewhere and dump that water on my 2,500 square feet of pea and beet seeded ground.

DigitS'

Good grief! They make big to-do about it gonna be a horrible day on the plains - tornadoes, hail, wrath of Thor, etc. Pffffftttttttt!

Unless it warms up considerably maybe 40 degrees really fast, the conditions just aren't right for all that stuff. I don't have a fancy computer model, but I know the weather. Geeze!

The weather people were right about snow for us today. It rained pretty hard last night, started snowing this morning and we already have several inches. It's blowing and snowing hard as I write this.

I wore flip flops all weekend and today I've got my fleece on.

Although I feel like I'm "done" with snow for this year, the moisture will be nice. All of my KBG lawn was getting thirsty. If I could just find a way to harvest the water from DH's long decadent shower every morning without having him stand in a bucket :)

Charlene