Leaf drop already! My Normay maple <:> over my deck is shedding. Seems early to me.

Fall seems to be coming early for sure. But does anyone remember April and what an early and gorgeous spring we had--for awhile? Then the relentless rains and cold of May and part of June. There is no scientific way to accurately predict long-term weather. Just one surprise after another here in New England.

I'm holding out for Indian Summer!!

I can't imagine it will stay this cool until winter sets in. I think an Indian Summer is coming also!

It's definitely a banner year for fungus in my yard though... that's for sure. The vegetable garden is slowing down also, and the winter squash is looking almost ready to pick. Maybe the kids will be trick-or-treating in the snow...

I agree with Ginny there is no consistent accuracy when forecasting weeks or even months ahead. Heck weather models often disagree with one another on two and three day outlooks. However many factors go into long range forecasts El nino, La nina, variations in distant ocean temperatures etc. these of which can certainly increase the chance of predicting long range rainfall, temperatures, and severity but still inconsistently. There is something to say about law of averages as last January was one of the mildest on record so naturally odds are in favor of a harsher month in 2007. While the Farmers Almanac certainly is enjoyable to read there is no way I will even attempt to rely on their forecasts.

As of this year the summer certainly cooled off rather abruptly right in mid August (just after my two weeks summer vacation:))slowing down many of this years veggies sooner than I would of hoped for. And there does not seem to be any major warm up for our area although much of the country is enjoying very seasonable and warm temps, so you never know.

Leaf drop started WEEKS ago around here. Lots of "Black Spot" observed, deadening huge sections of my immediate area...
2 nice toadstool specimens growing with a crown of Daylilies yesterday...plucked those out.
Some disgusting creamy-yellow-colored mold growing all on the undersides of my nasturtiums...what's up with that?
Cooler temps for sure, but I'm not complaining. To me, this is just 'perfect' weather.
I don't take much stock in the OFA, simply because their predictions are so incredibly vague it's ridiculous. Of COURSE we're going to have a cold winter. It's New England. Of COURSE we're going to have a big snowstorm in March- it's WINTER IN NEW ENGLAND! It won't be any different than any other winter in New England- we'll all be cold, we'll all be covered in snow, and we'll all be scraping our windshields until Mid April.

Case in point: The 2006 Long-range weather report from last year:

Winter-season temperatures will be one degree below normal, on average, with above-normal precipitation in most of the region. Snowfall will be much greater than normal just about everywhere.

Hmmm...wrong on that one, guys.

The biggest snowfalls will be in early December and the second half of January, with other snowy periods in late December and early February. Temperatures will be relatively mild in November, the first half of January, and February, but colder than normal in December and exceptionally cold in the second half of January.

no sah...you DON'T SAY!

April and May will be cooler than normal, on average, although there will be warm temperatures in mid-April and early and late May.

Yeah...we usually have some nice days...

Rainfall will be above normal.

ok, I'll give you that one.

June will be quite pleasant overall, with below-normal rainfall and near-normal temperatures.

Oh, sorry, no prize for YOU!

July and August will be hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in mid-July and early and late August.

"...hottest periods in mid-July, late Aug?" Wow...I never would have thunk it! But you missed that mark, too.

September and October will bring very mild temperatures, on average, but hurricanes will threaten the region around the middle of each month.

Gee, I wonder why it is they call it Hurricane Season????

MM, very amusing post enjoyed your commentary. Leaf drop weeks ago, how far north (generally) are you speaking of. I recall a couple of summers ago while on vacation in early August we were walking the Flume in NH and noticed some early leaf drop, I thought that was way too soon but I guess not.

Rich- this is WAY unusual. We've suffered from Black Spot for a couple years now, and this year esp badly. I haven't seen anyone else even in the same TOWN experiencing the mess that we've got going...all the trees just look BLACK, not green...I called the NHDES last year, and it was evidently a problem everywhere, and this year was obviously worse because of all the rain- moreso than last- but I really haven't seen any that compares to my stand. And we're up on a HILL to boot!

I'm not that far north- Seacoast area, actually, which doesn't even qualify as 'north.' Leaves have been falling sporadically since beg of August. No 'clearing' at all, just enough to notice that it's not supposed to be happening.

Here in Eastern Mass, I noticed the sudden change in temperatures even before the middle of the month of August. Seemed a bit early to me too. Seems very fall like here. Leaves are dropping from my trees, but haven't noticed the general area yet. I have to say though, that I had a bad case of caterpillars on all my trees in the spring, so even though the trees recovered and grew back new leaves, the old damaged leaves, started turning brown early summer and have stayed that way all season and they have been dropping since the temperatures started changing.

I am enjoying this lovely fall weather, and I don't mind the winter coming or worse than normal winter weather, if spring would just show up on time and be a normal spring. But I have begun to expect that what we are now getting is a 'new normal'.

Two things that never change about New England weather - it's different every year, and it's always a hot topic of conversation.

Ok, to follow up and supplement this conversation, it was mid-AUGUST (about Aug 10) in Springfield, MA and I saw a "V" formation of about 15 to 18 Canadian Geese heading south. My relatives saw me staring at the formation and thought I was a bit strange...but, the reality is WHY in Mid-August are they moving like that? They (relatives) failed to notice the sign.

Since, then it has been cooler-like I mentioned in my first posting. But, even like today, it has been cooler- mid-60 AND leaves are turning colors and dropping off trees-paper (white) birches. The white birches dropping leaves has actually been going on for several weeks. Frankly, this is about 4 weeks early than normal around here in Western Massachusetts.

Folks, I think we need to discuss this further as it may be portents of something a little bit bigger.

I welcome your comments. Best wishes.

Lawrence

Are you wondering about the winter coming up being more difficult than usual, or a shrinking growing season? I did a quick google search and came up with a website for a yahoo group of Northeast Weather commentary.

http://groups.google.com/group/ne.weather.moderated

You might find more information there and would have a place to post questions. I would be interested in what might result if you do.

I also found one post that was titled Severe Winter Warning and I post a link to that below.

Here is a link that might be useful: Severe Winter Warning

Whatever happens in the future, it certainly is a rotten Labor Day weekend, at least in terms of weather! Last year, we had three spectacular days in a row--calendar-photo perfect.

There is so much to comment on here, I'm not sure where to begin. But here goes:

1) If leaves are falling off trees because of fungus problems, that has nothing at all to do with an early fall.
2) Also, based on my observations over many years, it is perfectly normal for some maple trees to turn color in late summer. Usually this occurs on old/weak maples and some rogue swamp red maples. Again, I have observed this in warm weather, cool weather, etc.
3) Although the time of peak color in the fall does vary a bit from year to year, it is remarkably consistent, in spite of big differences in fall temperature from year to year. This is because changing light levels have a very strong influence on the timing of peak color. And that is the one factor that is identical each year.
3) I have observed geese flying in V-formation, heading north, whereas others were heading south. So, not much more to say about that.
4) The temperature regime did change to an overall colder than normal pattern in mid-August. Those kinds of changes are not unusual and can't be used to say anything about the coming months ahead. The month of August averaged out near normal region wide. Connecticut and Rhode Island were slightly warmer than normal for the month, and Maine (particularly northern and downeast Maine) was cooler than normal.
5) I have said it many times and I will say it again. New England weather is no more variable than most other places in the USA in the prevailing westerlies. In fact, an objective analysis would suggest that we are less extreme compared to a good chunck of the country.
6) The Old Farmers Almanac makes for a nice read, but the weather outlooks it provides are based on folklore (historical anecdotes) that has not been empirically tested. The folklore might be real, but again, it has never been tested/verified.
7) There is only one formal study that I am aware of that attempts to correlate fall weather with the subsequent winter. The AMS published a statistical analysis some years ago showing that there is a somewhat higher probability of a snowier than normal winter in New England following a colder than normal fall. Note: this does not mean that every cool fall is followed by a snowier than normal winter. It just means that over the past 100 years or so, that was indeed the case more than 50% of the time.
8) Forecasting sensible weather in the short term (a few days to a week out) is a completely different beast from forecasting weather months out. Long range forecasts are all about trying to predict the mean upper air patterns in the future. The resulting forecasts only show regions where the liklihood of a particular anomoly (like warmer or colder than normal) is greater than 50% (greather than a coin toss). In those areas where no statistical anomoly is apparent, it means the forecast is a coin toss for that region. For the upcoming winter, the forecast is for a >50% liklihood of warmer than normal conditions over much of the USA. However, for the east coast, the signal is less clear--so it is a coin toss. You can check out the link below to these foecasts.
9)I remember during late fall last year, quite a few meteorologists were hinting at another tough winter. And the folklore enthusiasts were stating the same. The official long range forecast had New England marked as a "coin toss". Who would have thought at that time that January would end up as one of the warmest on record in most places? So, this one result tells us that predicting the future, months in advance, is a very tricky proposition. So, just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Here is a link that might be useful: Long Range Forecasts

From the link Prariemoon provided, Hartford news printed an article predicting a severe winter for last year and gave justifications why. The first reason was:

The three most active hurricane seasons, 1933, 1969, and 1995, were all followed by harsh winters.

Well 2005 was one of the most active hurricane seasons I can recall, but I did not research it to compare with the three years mentioned. I don't know about anyone else but I really enjoyed last January's spring like weather. Accurate long range forecasting is just not in our near future. One other thing to remember that monthly average temperatures are comprised of years with warm and cold months thus giving us a bench mark to say what is average. So when temps are a few degrees below "average" that is a normal ingredient that makes averages, but they cannot be accurately forecasted months in advance.

Rockman, nice post being a weather enthusiast I agree with most everything you mentioned. On your third comment light and temperature drops are the only two reasons leaves change color, and I think but not certain the intensity is influenced by rainfall during the summer months.

er...like WHAT???? Did I miss an important memo?

Folks, I think we need to discuss this further as it may be portents of something a little bit bigger.

er...like WHAT???? Did I miss an important memo?

Rich,
The light-and-temperature-drop trigger for trees' leaf drop is correct, at least in the situation of cold-climate species (oaks and beeches, being southern species that have crept north, operate a bit differently).

One reason why red swamp maples can be "rogue" and change earlier, is that that they often are growing in low-lying, boggy or wet areas that serve as cold air "bowls" or pockets, and so are triggered a little sooner than the warmer uplands.

Sugar maples also are apt to change early, but that seems to be more an internal characteristic of the species -- many will start coloring whether they're in upland woods or a cool valley. So, they are not an indication of early autumns, either.

According to Jeff Masters on Weather Underground, there may be an El Nino starting. If so, this could mean a weaker hurricane season and a milder winter.

"An El Ni is on the way, according to the latest El Niño discussion posted September 7 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center."
.......... ....

"Effect of El Niño on hurricane season

As most of you know, El Niño conditions put a major damper on both the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. This is primarily due to increased wind shear. The upper air winds that develop when one heats the Equatorial Eastern Pacific waters tend to blow from west to east over the Atlantic at high speed. Since the tropical Atlantic trade winds near the surface typically blow the opposite direction, this creates a lot of shear that makes it difficult for a tropical cyclone to survive. Thus far in September, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has been about normal, so there is no sign that a developing El Niño is suppressing hurricane activity yet. However, if the Climate Prediction Center is right, we can expect an earlier than usual end to hurricane season in the Atlantic, and a quiet November and December--unlike last year! El Niños can be long lived, and if the forecast El Niño for this year develops as expected, it will probably last through the hurricane season of 2007, suppressing hurricane activity next year.

Effect of El Niño on the coming winter

In the U.S., El Niño winters typically have above average rainfall across the southern tier of states, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico and California coasts. Temperatures tend to be warmer than average across the northern tier of states. Temperatures are typically cooler across the southern tier of states, due to increased cloud cover. For more info on El Niño's typical wintertime effects, see the Wikipedia El Niño page or the Climate Prediction Center winter precipitation and temperature impacts page."

Claire

Here is a link that might be useful: Jeff Masters' Blog 9:56 AM EDT on September 08, 2006