As a side note, I did read through the prediction center notes, but I don't feel any wiser for it. From what I can make out, there is some certainty that there will be some cold, some heat, some rain, and some wind occurring sometime or other over some parts of the country.

Robert,

Do you want me to look into my crystal ball and consult the Ouija board, or tell you what the scientists predict?

OK, let's start with that the scientists say:

El Nino continues across the tropical Pacific and the most recent month's Sea Surface Temperatures show a departure from normal of +1.0 to +2.0 degrees Celsius. These temperatures are being recorded in the central and Eastern Pacific, and this means El Nino is still with us and will remain with us for some months longer. Other observed atmospheric conditions are consistent with what is expected during an El Nino event.

When the NWS's Climate Prediction Center issues a seasonal outlook, El Nino conditions are a key player when those conditions exist, but the CPC also looks at many other variables including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Trends (which, for them, means a comparison of the most recent 10-year-weather averages to the longer 30-year averages), the Pacific Decadal Osciallation, Dynamical Forecast Models and several other variables.

Based on all the above as combined and studied by the NWS, the forecast for the southern plains continues to call for an elevated chance of below-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation through the April-May-June timeframe.

You'll note, Robert, that they give us an 'elevated chance' but that elevated chance isn't 100%, so there's always a chance they're wrong. Do I think they're wrong? No. I feel like they are right.

So, now for my Crystal Ball prediction: I expect we will remain cooler than average at least through April, but at least in my county, the precipitation seems to be leveling off and that makes me wonder what's 'wrong'. It isn't even that we need rain because we're so muddy from all the previous moisture, but a drier March does get my attention. On the other hand, one good rainfall would put us right back at normal rainfall here.

As for the fruit trees, this should be, statistically, the year we get fruit. The weather patterns, though, don't pay attention to statistics.

At this point in time, I'd say you have about a 50% chance that your fruit succeed in seting a crop this spring and that you'll be picking fruit this summer.. Every week that passes from this point forward, I'd say the chance goes up about 10-15%. There's at least one cold night next week that is worrisome, and once y'all get past that successfully, the odds that the fruit survives look pretty good.

My fruit trees have had a hard freeze of 32 degrees and very heavy frost this week. I don't know that it lasted long enough to kill the fruit, but that may be irrelevant in light of today's forecasted wind gusts of 55 mph for my part of the state. Twice in the last ten years, wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have literally stripped the flowers and young fruit off my trees, so I have a bad feeling about my fruit trees today if the forecasted winds materialize.

I get a good crop of stone fruit about 1 year out of 3 here, which is frustrating, but we can't control the weather. Between late freezes, severe wind storms and hail, I suppose it is a wonder we ever get a good fruit crop at all.

And, for what it is worth, these sorts of El Nino conditions often give us a very bad tropical storm/hurricane year.

Finally, it is hard for the scientists to predict with a high degree of confidence just when the El Nino conditions end, although most forecasts I have seen believe El Nino will continue to influence our weather through at least May or June. The big question is what happens after that. If El Nino gives way to neutral conditions, we're in for a good summer but if a La Nina immediately begins, then drought could return to parts of our state in July or August.

Dawn

For three years, we've lost our peach crop to frost. This, so far, is the most promising I've seen. The reason it looks more promising, for peaches, here in Tahlequah, is that our trees are much later in budding. We'll see if we get peaches! I've given up with tarping, etc. It never worked.

George

George, back when I lived with peach and apricot trees I would put out 3 or 4 milk jugs full of ice, frozen about 24 hours, each day per tree, and set them about 2 feet from the trunk. It kept my chest freezer full those winters and running just about none stop.

I truly believe, the cold on the ground made the tree believe it wasn't time to bud out yet.

:)

But it was a lot of work.

Moni

From the sources I read they say the El Nino effect will go through April here. The one long range forecaster who hits it for us the most will have his forecast out this Wed for the spring and summer. Some are saying we will see a weakening of the El Nino effect starting in mid May and others are saying it may last into mid June to July and then a hot and dry period will follow. We have been on the edge so far like most had predicted. With the upcoming predicted warm days my peach tree blooms will open I'm sure. My feeling overall for here is a continued cool April. And a possible late freeze although some are saying we should have a normal last freeze which is around April 17th. If that is so I may be starting my plants too late. I'm starting seeds now. Planning on a May 10th to June 1st trans planting frame. Hope with the greenhouse they will grow faster also. I've started too early the last few years so have tried to be patient this year. Reading all those who have started seeds have made it hard. In closing I'm expecting a cool April and first half of May with above normal moisture. Jay

Jay,

I started my tomatoes more or less on time but started everything else a little late for me. So far that has worked out well. March has slowly warmed up but we've still had about one or two frosty mornings per week. We likely will have one more frosty morning next week and then I think I can comfortably begin transplanting tomatoes into the ground. Of course, I will only transplant the first 60 next week because I have 60 buckets to cover them with if a late, late frost threatens but I'll be hoping that isn't necessary.

As soon as the nights are warm enough, I'll move the pepper transplants to the back porch....and that might be about Wed. or so....because even though I started them a bit later than usual, they are larger than usual for this time of the year and are outgrowing the light shelves.

I don't mind if April and May stay a little below normal in temperatures because our April and May weather always heats up too early here. It is hard to get good performance from cool-season crops if you're hitting the 80s in April and the 90s in May. I still hope we don't get above-average precip. and wish most of our April and May rain would go to you and Jan instead. If wishes were horses, beggers would ride...as my grandmother used to say, but I'll keep wishing anyway.

I'm most worried about the sudden change from mild and wet to hot and dry at mid-summer as some reputable forecasters are predicting. That happened to us here in southern OK in 2008 and then that drought lasted until April 2009. I'm not ready for a repeat of it. I will push my crops along hard with enough but not too much water and fertilizer so that they hopefully will be strong and productive before El Nino leaves us high and dry.

During the last 4 days, Spring has gone wild here....trees that had stubbornly sat there with their arms folded, saying "I'm not gonna do it, not gonna bloom and leaf out now....." are suddenly flowering, leafing out, etc. Wildflowers have started blooming....but these are mostly January, February and March wildflowers that are behind, though apparently trying now to play catch-up.

I've been out in the garden and it still is too wet in many parts of it to do anything, but maybe today's warm, blustery weather will dry it out a bit. I have potatoes and broccoli ready to go into the ground if I can dig anywhere without hitting water.

Dawn

Dawn,
The so called "long range forecasters" are varying widely on when the heat will hit and when the dry will start and how severe the dry will be. That is what concerns me. If I hadn't had the greenhouse and other projects going I would of started earlier. I'm already stock piling 4 and 6 inch pots for future use in the greenhouse. That way if I start too early and they need potting up I will have large pots and also I nice place to pot in. This year I feel I will be stretched for time and didn't want to create the possibility of extra potting up to add to my current work load. I'm sure I will put a few out early in WOW's. I may even buy one or two large plants from a local source to try to get a few early ones. When at Wally World last weekend many of the Bonnie plants didn't look good. And they did have them inside. Yellow and spots on the leaves. Not sure what is going on with them. Their plants had always had a great green color and looked healthy. The last two years have been different. I'm sure we will have a few more frosts. And I've planted many plants in the past at 3-4 weeks old. So assuming I get good germination I should have a lot of plants ready by the first of May. But hopefully can hold them in the greenhouse if everything arrives to finish it. They shipped two packages together on FedEx. One arrived yesterday. The other hopefully will be here soon. Can't tell much by the tracking number. If it is correct it is taking the slow boat around the United States. Not sure how they got separated. I received more seeds Thursday. I'm planting way more than I will be able to grow. Not sure how I will decide what I plant and what I give away and cull. Flip a coin I guess. Have you ever heard of the Madagascar tomato? I had heard of a pepper by that name but not a tomato. I have seeds for it now. Also how did the germination turn out on the seeds I sent that I had saved? Marked with either a JP or a JDP. Got a little over a tenth early this morning. Now in the 40's with 20-25 mph winds gusting into the 40's. A great day to be inside planting. Got about 2/3 of my onions in. Planted some more last night. The ground was wet but need to get them in. My potatoes should of been here and haven't arrived. Guess they might any day now. Jay

Jay, I just finished planting the tomato seeds you sent. I planted a few of each kind and I am looking forward to seeing how they do. Thanks for sharing the seeds. I don't think I am addicted yet like you and Dawn but my daughter is beginning to be concerned. I hope our weather does not go from cool to hot too fast. The middle of next week is going to feel hot if temps get has high as predicted. Jan

Jay,

Yes, the long-range forecasts are bothering me and I get the feeling I'd better get maximum production early in the summer before it possibly turns droughty. You know that 2009 was very wet for us here which was great in a lot of ways and, based on the 11 years we've been here, we've never had two very wet years back-to-back, so I'm preparing for a rough summer.

I have noticed the same thing with many of the Bonnie Plants in stores now. The ones that hit the stores early...in Jan. or early Feb. had gorgeous green foliage, and clearly were just out of the greenhouse and didn't really look adequately hardened off. Still, they seemed disease-free. The ones I've seen the 3 or 4 weeks have been highly variable, but with lots of probable fungal issues on the foliage of many and a sort of malnourished look to the others. I showed some to Tim the other day at Lowe's and said "look at those leaves" and even though he's not a gardener himself, the first words out of his mouth were "Early Blight".

I had a FedEx order ship two weeks ago on a Friday afternoon, within a couple of hours of placing an order. I was excited. Silly me. It was picked up from the retailer on Friday, but then it sat at the Sacremento facility the rest of Friday and all day Sat. and Sun. before it finally started moving on Monday. I finally received it on Friday, one week after it shipped, so not the fastest shipping I've ever seen.

Of the seeds you sent me, I had either great, practically 100% germination or 0% germination, and nothing in between. The ones that didn't germinate were: Goose Creek, Paquebot Roma and Vintage Striped Wine. The VSW was the only one marked with your initials that didn't germinate. I have about 200 plants I won't have space for, so even after I give away some to folks here, I'll still be bringing oodles and oodles to the swap....hate to let a good tomato plant go to waste.

I haven't heard of the Madgascar tomato. What do you know about it?

Although it was very windy early, it was warm. I think we got up to 68 degrees before the clouds blew in. I worked for a couple of hours in the garden and then had to stop and move all the seedlings from the sunny edge of the patio back into the barn once the wind got too high for them. Now I'm inside listening to the wind howling outside. Clouds have moved in so we've lost our lovely blue sky and sunshine too.

It's great you've got most of the onions in. It is so hard to work around the weather at this time of year.

My potatoes from Roninger's came about a week after I expected them. I think they hold them and won't ship if the temps are near freezing anywhere along the shipping route between you and them. When they arrived, though, they were in great shape. Now if only I had semi-dry ground in which to plant them.

Dawn

Dawn,
Thanks for the information. Yes Vintage Wine Striped would be the only one that I save from those you mentioned that I saved. I planted seeds out of the same bag today. Will see what they do. I have one tray planted. Then headed down to my sisters to watch the KState ballgame. Should of stayed home and planted seeds. The first half of the tray was all seeds I saved. I saw a poster telling someone on the Rocky Mountain forum it was almost too late too start tomato seeds for them. Maybe I'd better just quit. LOL. Of course if you only have a few plants with protection instead of many in the open you can push the envelope more. One reason I want the greenhouse. The Bonnie plants that looked so bad here had only been in the store a week. As they weren't there a week before. A few decent looking ones but 80% or more looked bad. I can't believe they would even put them out looking like that.

I don't know anything about the Madagascar tomato. I planted a few seeds today. No information. I may have to ask. Again may just grow a few and see what they are. Jay

Jay, Dawn and I could likely supply you with a garden full, but they probably wouldn't be the ones you would plant. Dawn's are about a month older than mine because I started late also.

I find this thread fascinating, especially in light of how I felt about the weather 10 years ago. At that time, I lived in Houston and drove from one covered garage to another, all day long, and always in a wool suit and heels. Never felt the need for a coat, although I did carry extra blouses to accomodate the humidity. My boss gave me MAJOR grief because I didn't pay attention to the weather. My point was I would make no changes to my behavior if I knew what was predicted. So why?

But I digress. When we moved back to Oklahoma, and began building our house with our own two hands, weather was everything. We were always trying to "beat the rain, beat the cold, beat the heat, beat the snow," etc. And now I want to know because of the garden.

So the question now is...when to set out the tomatoes. It's killing me. My current plan is to decide on April 8. I'll look at the 7 day outlook. If I have a shot at no freezing, I'm going to put them out. Worst case, I'll have to protect them all. We'll see how brave I am on the 8th.

Jay,

Allow me to extend my condolences on the KState-Butler game. I flipped on the TV and caught the last minute but that was enough.....

It is NOT too late to start seeds and you know it. But, if you come to the Spring Fling, I'll bring you all you want and you can use them as earlies or back-ups or whatever.

I have started seeds in early May and had ripe tomatoes from those plants in August. Even when I transplant in late March or early April into soil that is just barely warm enough, I'll often see a late plant that was transplanted in late April into warmer soils catch up with those planted earlier, so I don't buy that whole 'too late to start' routine.

The truth is that when the soil and air temperatures hit the "exact right temperatures", tomato plants will grow an average of 1" per day and get to bearing-size very quickly, and it doesn't matter if those plants are 6-weeks-old or 12-weeks-old when that rapid growth period begins because they'll all make great growth and zoom into production. I ignore people who say its too late because it never really is.

Carol, We can and maybe we will. We loyal subjects of Tomatoland have to support our King, especially when we're growing seeds he sent us. We should coddle our little baby plants and whisper to them that when they grow up maybe they can go to Jay's place to live in the land of endless sun and wind and no rain.

Seedmama, It is funny how becoming an avid gardener changes your perspective on weather. When we lived in Fort Worth, it warmed up a lot earlier and we just did not have these lingering cold nights that lasted forever and forever. In early to mid-March I'd set out my tomato plants with no one iota of concern that a late frost would get them because it just didn't happen. Not ever.

We only moved 80 miles north so you wouldn't think there would be much difference, but there is. It is hotter here in summer and colder in winter than in Fort Worth and we have more drastic swings in precip. In Fort Worth, we were astonished if we had a 2" or 3" rainfall in one day. Here we have had 5", 6", 9.25" and 12.87" in single-day rainfall. Who would have expected that?

Here in southern OK we've had 90 degree days in February and 40 degree nights in June. I'll never understand the weather here.

As for when to plant the tomatoes....ha! If you think you can figure out a good, safe planting date, let me know. I never have any idea when to plant mine. I've planted as early as March 9th in a warmer-than-average year and have finished up as late as mid-May in a very cold, very wet year. As far as I'm concerned, I'm mostly just guessing when I pick a planting date. My average last frost date here has proven worthless for planting purposes. I might as well just flip a coin and plant.

Dawn

Dawn,
I finally figured out where I received the Madagascar. Marianna's offers it. Here is what she says. "Sprawling vines produce mini, rose-pink plums with a very pretty magenta blush, that appear in profusion. You'll enjoy their unique rich sweetness." Guess I may have to try one.

Jan I hope they germinate well for you. And like I've said if you have some trouble with a few I should have plenty unless disaster strikes. I got one tray planted today. Hope to get maybe two tomorrow. I will probably have 3 trays of 72 cells of tomatoes and at least one of peppers.
Dawn I know it isn't too late. I prefer a plant to be at least 4 weeks old if I put them out in early May. But like I've said before most years the plants I put out in mid May to Memorial day will produce the most. My only concern was when the statement was made is that the new grower might decide it was. Another grower came on and said he wouldn't start his till mid April. Which for the Denver area north I would think would be right. I've known them to have a freeze in late May there. I might take you and Carol up on a few plants if I make it too the swap. It would only be a few to put out early. Carol's plants look nice. Jay