Unusual for regular states or unusual for Oklahoma?

I have seen March begin just like this in some previous years, but probably not since about 2005.

We're only just now beginning our 13th year here, so I'm hardly an authority on Oklahoma weather but you know that I do watch the weather very closely and try to understand what it is doing and why, and use that in making planting decisions.

I don't think any two years have been exactly the same, but in the early 2000s we had an earlier spring warm up every year, earlier leafing out of trees, etc. and in the later years of the decade, we had a slower warm-up and a bit slower start to spring. During the last 4 or 5 years, southcentral OK has had some very persistent cold (even freezing!) temperatures late in April and into the first week of May, especially in low-lying areas like mine near the Red River. I don't know if that is true for people in other parts of the state or at higher elevations. So, for my location in Oklahoma, this spring seems like a throwback to the early 2000s and I am glad!

So, here's what I "think" about March.

We're seeing a massive early warm-up here in Love County. Yesterday some of the native Chickasaw plum trees started blooming about 2 weeks earlier than usual. Many trees in the native woodlands were pollinating 2 to 3 weeks ago so our pollen counts have been insanely high, and now those trees are leafing out and have been for several days. It is not that common for trees to leaf out in February. We have all kinds of butterflies and moths out, bees, wasps, yellow jackets, spiders, ground beetles, etc., but haven't yet seen crane flies or green lacewings. There's a lot of earthworm activity in the upper levels of the veggie garden beds. All kinds of birds are around in great abundance and this week I've seen and heard flocks of migratory ducks flying overhead. All the obvious signs point to an early spring.

In the garden, reseeders that pop up with regularity every year are up in abundance now and most have been 2 to 3 weeks earlier than usual, including chamomile, basil, corn poppies, larkspur, yarrow, Laura Bush Petunias, and four o'clocks. (Normally, four o'clocks are very conservative and new seedlings are more likely to sprout in mid-April so they are really extra-early.)

In the pastures, winter (aka cool-season) grasses and forbs are growing rapidly and many are in bloom and some are about 2-4 weeks earlier this year than most years. Some warm-season foliage is up too, which is a little surprising and that includes greening up of bermuda. (Why, oh why, did it not get cold enough here to kill the bermuda grass??? I would have been so thrilled!!!)

In the water garden, the frogs and fish are very active, and the water lilies are leafing out a little earlier than usual, but not incredibly so because my water lilies are pretty early anyway.

Every day I am seeing new growth on plants that normally aren't showing growth this early. Around the neighborhood, flowering quince and Bradford pears began blooming yesterday. My 'Jane' magnolia opened its first flower today.

So, everything I see points to an early spring warm-up, but I still don't necessarily equate that with early planting. However, it does mean that plants which need to be pruned in late winter or early spring may start leafing out earlier, so it is a good idea to finish up that pruning now.

Our days are warmer than average, but our nights are still cold. Our overnight low this morning at our house was 26 degrees. I expect we'll continue to have 1 to 3 freezing or sub-freezing nights here per week for at least the next 3 or 4 weeks.

I am finishing up many of my cool-season plantings this week. Onions, potatoes, leeks, and the first round of radish seeds are in the ground now; peas and lettuce are going into the ground today, cabbage and kale seedlings which are still pretty small probably won't go into the ground until next week and broccoli later still.

March is always a transition month here in Oklahoma but it seems like the transition began in mid-February this year. It is easy to equate an early warm-up or early spring with early planting of warm-season crops, but that can be a dangerous association to make because the cold nights can persist deeply into spring even when the days are quite warm.

So, while I'd like to think that maybe all of us can plant our warm-season crops a little early this year, I still am not going to rush into it. I'll watch the pecan trees, the American cross vine and the trumpet creeper vines carefully as they are among the last plants here to leaf out and green up. Even they get fooled occasionally, but in the 12 springs (not counting 2011) that we've been here, the pecan tree has only bloomed or leafed out too early twice, only to lose the flowers or leaves to freezing temperatures. So, in general, the pecan tree is a pretty good predictor of warm temperatures.

Around March 10th I'll look at my 10-day forecast and try to pick a date to plant the early corn and to start transplanting tomato plants. Since my average frost date here is March 28th, that could mean I'll be planting both corn and tomatoes before the end of March. However, in recent years we've had those persistent cold nights into the first week in May, so that might make me hold back a little on both.

As a longer-term general weather trend, I see March and most likely April having above-average daytime high temperatures and below-average rainfall. For many of us, perhaps even most of us here in Oklahoma, the current drought conditions will persist or worsen. As a result, even the early green-up will not save us from having a bad wildfire season in March and April. By May, I expect the wildfire season will be drawing to a close because enough green-up will have occurred by then to offset the still-standing, cured, dry and dormant vegetation.

Longer term, from recent data from the El Nino 3.4 region, it appears our La Nina has begun to weaken although we are still feeling her effects at the present time. In terms of La Nina and her effects on drought here, I think it likely we'll go into late spring or earliest summer in either neutral conditions or in a startup of El Nino conditions. If neutral conditions persist, our drought is likely to persist somewhat. The sooner the conditions begin moving away from La Nina and more towards El Nino, the better for us in terms of the drought easing.

For me, the most reliable weather indicator is just intuition or a gut feeling, and I've had a gut feeling since January that we'd have an early spring here. However, I also have a gut feeling we'll have one good cold spell in March and, statistically speaking, it is probably most likely the last week of March. It seems like we always have one, good, cold smackdown from Ma Nature in March as she seeks to remind us that she is the one who controls the weather no matter what we guesstimate, estimate and forecast.

That's my take on the weather. Oh, and don't forget Easter! It seems like we often have a cold spell right around Easter, and Easter is very late this year---the next to last weekend in April. That's makes me a bit nervous. I won't hold back on planting because of it, but I will be prepared to cover up the garden if that late Easter cold spell threatens after I have warm-season plants in the ground.

So, Robert, based on what you're seeing at your house, do you feel like an early warm-up is occurring there in central OK, or is the early warm-up restricted to southern OK?

Dawn

Wow, I'm surprised that there is so much blooming and leafing out in your neck of the woods already. Here in central OK the lawn weeds are greening up (we had a lawn care guy come to our door and give us a card yesterday...was he trying to tell me something?), and we have one neighbor whose grass is greening up already. None of the trees have visible buds yet, though, and that includes our early bloomers like the bradford pears and my crabapple.

I'm seriously getting the itch to start planting shrubs, but I'm trying to be patient. I do agree that we seem to be in an early spring year, and everything Dawn said about ENSO is correct (I'm a meteorologist, though my expertise is not climate variability). We probably have a few more cold snaps left, but things are definitely changing! I'm just worried that this early warm-up is a sign that we'll have a long, hot summer.

Yup, the henbit is growing... and Home Depot has herbs and veggie plants. Can't believe the basil is out.. since we all know, it can freeze out again.

It's to early!

Moni

looks like Farmer's Almanac little pulled back the date of last spring frost for this central OK (Mar 29)? I thought it was April 1.

FA's long term forecast says... MAR/APR temp one degree below average. April rainfall is 4" above average.

Here is a link that might be useful: 2011 Long-Range Weather Forecast for Texas-Oklahoma

I went outside tonight after work to check on our trees, and it turns out that my crabapple is indeed beginning to leaf out! Is it common for crabs to be so early? This one tree always seems to green up weeks ahead of anything else.

Miraje,

Spring simply exploded here, and it exploded big-time. I am seeing it with my own two eyes, and I don't even believe it. It feels surreal! It also scares me because I'm afraid it is a set-up for a big let-down if colder temperatures return.

Thank God you're a met because we need one here. I have struggled so hard this whole decade to try to understand why Love County swings wildly from less than 19" of rain one year to over 50" of rain another year. Nothing about Love County's weather makes sense to me. I've tried to learn how to correlate what I see with my own two eyes with what ENSO is doing, but I'm a rank amateur and often it is easier for me to look back at the weather pattern after-the-fact and say to myself "OK, so it was La Nina + the negative NAO that gave us the wacky winter weather" or whatever. Maybe someday I'll recognize it as it is occuring instead of afterwards.

I often say that Love County's weather is more like the weather in Dallas-Fort Worth and I do believe that's true. So, sometimes I feel out-of-step with the rest of Oklahoma, and the last couple of weeks, that's how I have felt....like my county is carelessly rushing headlong into spring with a devil-may-care attitude while the rest of the state is sort of cautiously inching its way towards spring. So, y'all come on and jump into spring with us, because the weather is glorious, glorious, glorious right now, and the plants all know it!

I fear a long, hot summer and so I'm hoping La Nina hurries up and departs, and I'm hoping we don't stay neutral too long, and I'm hoping El Nino is in a hurry to return and dump huge volumes of water on us all. Many of our ponds in this area are almost dry if not already dry.

Because I fear a long, hot, dry summer is on the horizon, I intend to really overplant the veggie garden and push hard for early production so I can get a good harvest before the hot sun bakes everything to a crisp.

Moni, The basil surprised me more than anything except the Four O'Clocks. The Four O'clocks usually sprout so late that I can't even find any small volunteers popping up in time to pot them up for the Spring Fling. Yet, here they are now, up and out of the ground beore the end of February. These babies may be a foot tall by the Spring Fling if a 'late frost' doesn't get them.

Y'all, today it was deliciously warm and sunny and all was well until fires started breaking out shortly before 3 p.m. We had relatively low wind speed, but everything is so dry here that small grass fires turn into wildfires surprisingly quickly. I fear a horrible fire season is beginning. (Just look at what happened in Texas and SW OK on Sunday.)

Since it is so dry, I've had no problem getting cool-season crops into the ground, unlike the last couple of years when we had plenty of rain here at planting time and it was hard to plant in perpetually wet soil. I wonder, though, if we'll get enough rainfall for them to grow well and perform well without constant irrigation.

Talking about the weather reminds me how much we rely on averages to predict what might happen or to go back and describe it after the fact.....average rainfall, average last freeze date, etc. Look at February. I don't know about the rest of y'all, but at our house, the first two weeks were extra-cold, or "colder than average". Then, the last two weeks of the month were "hotter than average". Average all four weeks together and you'd get exactly average numbers, yet in no way whatsoever was February 2011 an average month with average weather. THAT is a good reminder for us all that averages can be deceiving.

Dawn

Haha, yes, that was one parting gem of wisdom that my grad school advisor left me with before he took a job in Korea: there's no such thing as normal in Oklahoma. Forecasting what the weather is going to be months in advance is a huge challenge. Following changes in the ENSO pattern can give us some rough guidance, but there are a lot of other factors at work, too. For example, I don't think any guidance predicted that 2007 was going to smash rainfall records here in Oklahoma, but it happened anyway. Oklahoma is easily one of the most fascinating places to study weather for a living.

The one thing I'm absolutely certain is true about Oklahoma weather is that there is no normal here.

Our personal rainfall record at our house is 12.89" of rainfall in a 24-hour period, but not specifically in one day...12.4something fell on April 29th and the last .4something fell shortly after midnight, so technically on the 30th. That rainfall in April 2009 ended the drought that plagued Love County from about mid-2008 through April 2009. A couple of years before, we had 9.25" of rain at our house mostly in one day (April 28-29, 2006), which temporarily ended the drought of 2005-2006, although we were back in drought conditions by July and were fighting wildfires like crazy. It never ceases to amaze me that we'll have a month with no measurable rainfall and then we'll have a day with 9" or over 12". It is crazy.

I do remember 2007 for the Red River flooding and some even more horrendous flooding one morning in Gainesville, Tx, across the Red River from us when homes and even people washed down a creek, and it happened so suddenly and so quickly that it was unreal---resuers couldn't even get to the house before it washed away. In 2007 we would drive to the McGeehee's Catfish restaurant near the Red River and watch as the river rose and rose and rose that June. Old-timers told us about a worse year, which I think was 1981, but I can't imagine worse flooding than we saw in 2007.

One thing about the weather here is that you're never bored. However, it makes life crazy for anyone who loves gardening.

Dawn and Miraje, as much as I hope your gut feelings about a long, hot summer are wrong, I know in my heart that you are both more than likely right on target. Ugh! I hope that Chandra's FA prediction for above average rainfall in April turns out to be accurate, because if central OK goes into a long, hot summer without some moisture it will be bad news. Today there was another big grass fire near Luther.

Here at our place in SW Logan County the bradford pears are budding and the elms are about to leaf out. But the little dwarf peach just barely shows a little green on the tips. I haven't checked the redbud or maples. Some of the daylilies are up a few inches, and several of the perennial flowers are leafing out at the ground (columbine, bee balm, salvia, coreopsis, achilles). Even a couple of the tulips I planted in fall of '09 are coming back, which surprises me.

Suzie

Dawn, I find that most year's here in Central Oklahoma, the rainy springs make it difficult to get things in the ground, welcome though they may be. At least that will probably be an upside to spring planting this year. How many years have I wished for drier soil to plant in? Too many, and this year it seems we'll be getting our wish, but at a price.

I usually watch for butterflies as an indicator, too, but haven't seen any yet this year. I did see Green Lacewings, though. I'm afraid that all too soon I'm going to see those rotten little striped cucumber beetles, too....argh................

Soil is way way way too dry. Even if I go out to water, it takes so very long to get it moist, with lots of run off. I literally have to get down on my hands and knees, dirt and all, and mix it by hand and hope that I am getting enuff into the soil that it will help....some.

The Bradfords (another argh.....) are leafing out, as is my little Tulip Tree. I mentioned already I think that my Sedum is coming up in pots. Fennel is taking off like crazy. Butterfly bush is leafing out as well as False Nettle showing bits of growth. The Dianthus is putting up new, young foliage. Weeds are sprouting up in last year's pots. Some of my Daffs have already bloomed and the blooms are dead now. My Japanese Maple doesn't have growth yet, and it's usually one of the first, and it often gets bit by frost, but no signs yet. Both honeysuckles are throwing out new leaves, though. Glad to see my new one survived and hope it blooms this year. 'Blanche Sandman' has reddish orange blooms and my other one has yellow. BS got about 10' tall last year, so maybe I will get to see the flowers this year. I hope so because the hummers and bees will have a feast. I have trouble attracting hummers in spring. Always get them in mid-late summer.

The hummers are on the move into Mexico, preparing for the journey across the Gulf. They may arrive early this year with the warmer weather we are having, and certainly that Texas is having. I will get another Monarch update tomorrow and will post any significant news on their Northward journey.

BTW, do you have any milkweed coming up, Dawn? None here yet. I need to do garden cleanup, but am still hesitant due to overwintering chrysalises that may not be ready to emerge yet. This always throws me back a bit later than others for my in-ground plants. Another good reason for me growing in pots.

Moni, I'm always confused on where you're located. Your address/name line reflects Zone 7b, which is Southern Oklahoma like where Dawn is, but I see your posts that seem to reflect you're further North than Dawn. Are you close to OKC?

Dawn, I have some White 4 o'clock seed. Should I start it now in the fridge/baggy method? I already have the Broken Colors variety, but wanted some white for the moths. White-lined sphinx also use 4 o'clocks as a larval host plant. Although I've raised 12 different sphinx moth species in my yard alone, I still haven't raised the most common sphinx in Oklahoma yet! Frustrating. I have some overwintering Walnut sphinx and Tobacco Sphinx cocoons and they will probably wait until the 1st of April to emerge. I can hardly wait for butterfly and moth season to begin. Oh, I also have overwintering Wild Indigo Duskywing caterpillars. They overwinter as caterpillars and emerge in spring to continue feeding until they make their chrysalis. The WID is a spread-wing skipper and their cats are so cute. They curl up inside a leaf to feed, like little babies in a fetal position. TMI, I know.

Y'all are feeding my excitement, you know!

Susan

Susan, I am in the greater OKC metro. Don't remember how to set the zone... but thought, that was the zone for OKC. Am I wrong?

Moni

I'm about 15 miles southwest of OKC, and when I enter my zip into websites it gives me zone 6. I think I'm on the border between 6 and 7a here. OKC would probably be the same.

Suzie, If we are going to get any good rain at all, then I think it likely will fall in April, May and June. At our house, even in a drought year and even following a very dry winter, those are the months we get the most rain, even if it isn't very much at all in terms of inches. Most of our long-term droughts (and I mean just months-long, not years-long like Jay's) are ended by massive April rainfall. If the April rainfall fails us this year, we're in real trouble.

I saw footage of the Luther fire on TV and wondered if you noticed it. We had two fairly bad fires yesterday here in our county and it is shocking how quickly they moved despite very low (single digit) windspeed and how hard they were to put out. I would expect difficult fires in central OK through SW OK where Keetch-Byram Drought Index (a predictor of fire intensity) numbers are high, but wouldn't expect it as much here where our KBDI yesterday was around 130. However, with all the cured, dry, dormant vegetation, any fires that start have a good chance of being hard to control no matter which part of the state they're in. It is going to be a long fire season.

Susan, How ironic that you mentioned cucumber beetles because I saw the first one yesterday, and it flew right to me and landed in my hair. Ugh. I hate cucumber beetles. I think I'm going to grow my cukes under a floating row cover this year at least until pollination so I can attempt to keep the dastardly things off my plants for as long as possible.

I agree about the difficulty in getting extra-dry soil to absorb moisture. It is very frustrating.

I looked yesterday and didn't see any milkweed up in our pastures or flower beds, but haven't walked a dog in a few days so haven't had a chance to look and see if it is sprouting alongside the roadways, where it always sprouts a week or two earlier. I'll let y'all know when I see some.

I always say we're in zone 7b, but in reality I think we are almost exactly on the dividing line between 7a and 7b and after having very cold nights the last few years, I do think it likely we're really in zone 7a. Just typing that makes me feel colder.

I'd go ahead and start the white four o'clocks now so they'll be ready to go into the ground in April. White-lined sphinxes are very common here and there are several other types of sphinx moths that are regular visitors here, but we probably have as many White-lined Sphinxes as all the other types combined. The four o'clock beds are visited by many of them every evening during the warm season. I love the Four O'clocks because of their extreme drought tolerance. They fit, along with cannas, verbena bonariensis, daturas, gomphrena and a few other really tough plants, into the category of "plants that won't die, and you can't kill them".

I think you'll have butterflies and moths soon because we've had them for about 10 days now and see more each and every day and night.

Although our days are very nice, our nights are still pretty cold. I hope to spend most of the next 3 days outside working in temps in the 70s before a cold front later in the week drops us back down to more seasonable temperatures.

I noticed today that Lake Texoma is getting pretty low. It isn't record-setting low, but it is lower than usual for this time of year.

Dawn

I'm in north OKC and noticed on the way home this evening that the willows were greening up and the Bradford pears were peeking white. When I got home I walked around a little while just to see what was going on. The buds are just barely beginning to show on the redbuds, my early daffodils are blooming (tiny little variety about as big as my thumb - don't know what they are, but they're cute). Forsythia and quince on the south side are blooming. Tulips are just coming up and I'm seeing the tops of iris. I know we will have another cold snap so I'm just going to have to be satisfied with cleanup work these warm evenings. That's about it for our little acre of heaven!

Part of my grass is starting to turn green.

I saw a butterfly out today. A few birds are nesting in one of my trees.

My seedlings inside are really coming up.. I hope I can plant them soon!

We're expecting a frost here in Love County early Sunday morning and probable sub-freezing temperatures as well, but (hopefully) not enough to hurt the fruit trees blooms.

With Susan's mention of the hummers possibly migrating earlier this year, when should we put the feeders out here in central OK? I don't really want to put them out too early, but sure don't want to miss the early-birds either.

Suzie

Suzie,

The ones that are headed our way are still in southern Texas for the most part.

The hummers might be early this year, but it will depend on the native plants. Hummers tend to follow the blooms of native plants as they travel north, so they can't get ahead of the blooms or they won't have a food supply as they travel, unless they luck out and everyone has the feeders out early.

I have had feeders out all winter for the bees, but haven't had a hummer yet. Even if the hummers are early, I wouldn't expect them here until sometime after mid-March. Of course, they might surprise me and come earlier if this weekend's cold front doesn't scare them into staying down in south Texas.

I've linked Journey North's hummingbird migration map page. I think the one I copied into the link is the one for the Rufous hummingbirds because I usually see them a week or two before I see the Ruby-throated ones. There's a place on the map to click to change it from the Rufous to the Ruby-throat map (or to see other species). Sometimes we see black-chinned hummers here, but they're more rare than the other two at our house.

Dawn

Here is a link that might be useful: Journey North Hummingbird Migration Map