If the ones we watch/listen/read online are anywhere near accurate, we could have anywhere from scattered showers to 4" or more by the time Tammy and the gulf moisture are done this weekend. We tend to watch the radars online and draw our own prognostications--- if it's green/yellow/red over us, it's raining :) And where do some of these forecasters come up with the idea of a 62% chance of rain?

I check online and 2 different sites give me completely different information. The percentages aren't the "chance of rain" they are the "chance they are right" lol. It rained here last night, but not enough to get the sulky look off of my hydrangeas so it couldn't have been much. Guess I'll be watering... again... -Ais.

i no longer watch the local weather guys - all hype, no accuracy. i use weather underground and the weather channel websites for radar & satellite info - then, draw my own conclusions. for weather events, like hurricanes & snow/ice storms, i add the Nat'l Weather Service's written "discussions" on their website to the mix - over the years i've found them to be right on target.

the % chance of rain/snow you hear the weather guys use, is based on historical data (collected by the NWS)when conditions were similiar to current conditions. then they assign a probability that it will do what it did in the past. it's an "odds are" thing, like meteorological las vegas.

the NWS says it breaks down like this:
10% probability: Slight chance, isolated or none.
20% probability: Slight chance, isolated
30-50% probability: Chance,scattered
60-70% probability:Likely, numerous
80%+ probability: IT'S GONNA RAIN/SNOW

weather underground has excellent charts of historical data, where you can find the actual precipitation amounts for your exact location. they've recruited area locals with weather stations to report their data, and often there's a personal station very close to you - data collected at RDU rarely matches the local data collected where i live. so if i want to know how much rain *i've* gotten in any given period, the info is there.

i could go on and on.
and frequently do :)

wishin' and hopin' for rain,
marsha

As many of you know, I'm from Oklahoma. And most people know that the southern plains are famous for severe weather. In fact the National Severe Storm Laboratory is in my home town of Norman Oklahoma - so - the weathermen in that part of the country tend to be the best and brightest graduates from the regions universities. Not that any of this points to accurancy in forecasting.

I remember one time when the hot shot weatherdude decided to stage an accuracy contest where he would throw a dart at a wall display to predict tomorrows temperature after he had made his educated prediction. If the dart was closer to the truth the next day he would donate so much $$ to a local charity. The event was supposed to go on for an entire month. Half way through the month the station manager pulled the plug on the whole thing because the random dart worked better than weatherduds choices every day!!! The station ended up just giving all the money to the charity in the end.

I moved here from the border of PA and NJ. There is a local channel on the TV that is called accuweather. It is a local only station for the area we lived in. That local station was on 24-7 ( like the weather channel) but was regional. It was so on it was un real. We only had one local (read 'small') news station and it was using the same weather thing. I miss that 24-7 thing for local regional weather.I think you can check it out by going to WFMZ.com and looking for the accuweather channel link... You would think with the type weather we have here that that type of channel would be feasible.

speaking of accuweather, here's what their "senior expert meteorologist" joe bastardi says in today's brief:

"6.) TAMMY'S RAIN FROM RALEIGH TO BOSTON SHOULD AVERAGE 3 INCHES (WHEN COMBINED WITH THE SYSTEM COMING FROM BEHIND). LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES BY SUNDAY. Bye-bye drought."

Yeah! We've had at least a 1/10 inch so far (the sarcasm is dripping more than the clouds). I believe it when I see it. National Weather Service online says "Tonight...Rain...Occasionally heavy. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds 10 mph. Chance of rain 100 percent."
Here's to hoping!!!! How exactly does one DO the rain dance? -Ais.

I promise I am not making this up. One evening the local TV weatherman said "People are calling in reporting rain on the north side of town. Radar confirms their reports." This ought to give you a pretty good idea of how accurate our local weather is.

I use this method:

I put my two shelties Indy and Emma outside for 15 minutes, then I look at them.

If they are wet, its raining.
If they are white, its snowing.
If their fur is standing on end, its windy.
If they're panting and scratching at the door, its hot.

This method of forecasting the weather came to me HIGHLY recommended by my three cats, Rocky, Jack, and Gracie. Of course, it only works if the doggies are outside.

{{gwi:586633}}

Tonight, I predict: mainly dark.

:-)

Who needs a weatherman?? I have a system that is always right on target. My Hair! If it's frizzy and my bangs shrivel up to a tight curl then rain is on the way for sure. Just a few fly-aways?? Well that means that we May get a little drizzle but nothing that extra-hold gel can't handle. Good hair day means No rain. Oh yeah, if my dogs are stuck to me like white on rice and shivering to boot, then that's a thunder/lightning storm that you can bet on ;^)

AWWWWW, granite...toooooo cute. My neighbor has two shelties too. Yours look like tiny Lassies.

And, Cory, I so relate to your hair barometer system. The only thing I like about Vegas is that my hair stays exactly where I put it.

Now that this thread has gone silly, I have to say that I could go for either a really nice looking weather person or a humorous one. Raleigh is the pits for on-air personalities. I can't even remember any of their names. Yet, in Boston and Buffalo, it's been years, and I still remember them (now, now, it's not a Yankee thing,they are just friggin' dull here). The only one I remember in Raleigh in over 9 years is Dave Osterberg, but some other market snapped him up. I can't pay attention well, unless the person is engaging in some way...like Willard Scott or Al Roker.

Claire, I so agree about them needing to be engaging personalities. I can't tell you how many times I've turned on the news just to see the weather and then zone out in the middle of it without really getting what they said! We have satellite tv and I really miss the local forecast we used to get on the cable version of the Weather Channel.

Shari

Duh me !! So if I didn't have satellite tv I would get a local weather station?? They didn't offer us cable when we moved here..... doesnt come through here.... Now this summer they dug up front yard and put it in ,but no one has ordered it yet that i am aware of in our s.d..