I thot we were progressing thru the Greek alphabet for variant names ...

the next letter was not Omicron ...

it was Xi ...

hmm, not so covert ommission ...

LOL I guess they weren’t thinking ahead when they chose their ”pc” naming convention!

100% agree Zalco. I would have thought the first few rounds of this would have shown the world how interconnected we are now. Nope. Let poor SA struggle along with this, with limited outside help. Big surprise, a new and apparently bad variant pops up...where? Shocking. 😐

Then we ban travel from S.A. (on Monday, mind you), but not the other non-African countries with cases.

Theatre. Bad theatre at that.

I just checked Australia's rules on this:

" Travel restrictions are now in place for people who have been in South Africa, Lesotho, Ekatwini, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Seychelles, Mozambique, or Malawi in the last 14 days."

The travel restrictions involve mandatory 14-day quarantine on arrival for Australian citizens and residents, and no entry at all for anyone else who's been in one of those countries. That actually seems fairly reasonable to me. I believe the EU has imposed similar restrictions on arrivals from those countries.

I don’t see why criticisms of our help, or lack thereof, for other countries belongs in the same thought as criticism about travel bans. I mean, it’s not like we’re suddenly leaving them on their own to deal, is it?

"The travel restrictions involve mandatory 14-day quarantine on arrival for Australian citizens and residents, and no entry at all for anyone else who's been in one of those countries."

Australia by most accounts went overboard with draconian measures that have resulted in effectively closed borders for most and for most circumstances for about 18 months. Foreign travel only in limited circumstances and only for those whose exemption applications were approved and many were disapproved. It was possible in part because of its remote island location but its approach is not one the citizens of most other democracies wanted or would have accepted. Many Australians, including a family I know of who were in the process of moving back to Oz after a foreign work assignment abroad, were unexpectedly stuck for a period of time when the doors were slammed shut.

You don't see how rich countries failing to help poor countries stop the spread of the virus is germane to a discussion about the virus mutating and spreading resulting in travel bans? It's a pretty straight line, if you ask me- no detours or abstractions, just dominoes falling one after the other, as predicted from Day One.

Food , I think I may have misunderstood you. You were being sarcastic, perhaps? Apologies if my reply did not match your comment.

"Australia by most accounts went overboard with draconian measures"

Results of "draconian measures:"

Those measures may have been draconian, but they worked. And by and large, they had public support.

For the record, the Australia figure as of yesterday was 77.17 deaths per million; the US figure was 2331.97.

The Australians I know supported it. They didn't like the restrictions, but they thought they were the right things to do.

bragu_DSM 5 - Blatant PC skipping Nu and Xi. Did they not notice Omicron is an anagram of Moronic? :-)

Zalco, we’ve had a LOT of travel restrictions as have a lot of other countries. The intent is risk mitigation, not shunning counties. Yes I see the line from not helping poorer countries to them therefore becoming high risk to resulting in a travel ban. But I don’t view bans as some sort of insult or punishment; our role in their struggles is a separate topic from the ban itself IMO. Up for debate is whether or not the ban will be effective, but I’m fine with the stated intent.

​"Also the Spanish flu was not an exception and when it's genome was fully sequenced in 2005 and compared other flu's it's been here since 1918. "

You misunderstand the history of the actual 1918 pandemic.  Later versions of A/H1N1 influenzas are less severe than the original, but the Spanish flu itself mutated from a relatively mild disease in the first wave in March 1918  to a much more lethal disease in the second and third waves in Autumn 1918 and Spring 1919.  It is very much an example of a virus mutating into a stronger version.

Blatant PC skipping Nu and Xi

Ah so to avoid poking the bear, or the dragon.

Australia's "draconian" measures resulted in one out of every 13,000 Australians dead from Covid, vs one out of every 418 Americans dead. Seems like a good policy to me! And yes, I know that Australia is uniquely situated geographically...

By the time something is reported and verified, it's spread. IDK if it makes any sense to close borders anymore. We're 'one world' with today's transportation systems.

The idea of stopping flights from country X, Y, or Z seems less important than making sure that every passenger is vaccinated and has a negative Covid test before flying. Then they should quarantine a few days before having another negative test.

Yes, I know that it will never happen.

"And by and large, they had public support."

The half dozen Aussies I know well previously led lives that involved frequent and extensive foreign travel for work and holidays (vacations). The effectively absolute shutting of the borders has caused them problems and frustrations. No other country, not other democracies nor totalitarian ones, have gone so overboard. People whose lives are local and rather unaffected by the ban on travel would have different perspectives.

"Later versions of A/H1N1 influenzas are less severe than the original, but the Spanish flu itself mutated from a relatively mild disease in the first wave in March 1918 to a much more lethal disease in the second and third waves in Autumn 1918 and Spring 1919."

This is information you keep for handy reference in your back pocket? Your comments from internet searches would be more credible if you cited your sources, rather than make it appear otherwise.

"This is information you keep for handy reference in your back pocket?"

I thought everyone knew that -- it wouldn't occur to me to site a source for something I've known for years.

As for your comment about the Spanish flu, I'm with Toronto vet. I don't bother to cite sources for things I know and that are easily verifiable from the briefest of internet searches. But, since you insist, here's just one source: 

"There were 3 different waves of illness during the pandemic, starting in March 1918 and subsiding by summer of  1919. The pandemic peaked in the U.S. during the second wave, in the fall of 1918. This highly fatal second wave was responsible for most of the U.S. deaths attributed to the pandemic."  

That's from the CDC website.  Good enough for you?

jmm, you do realize Australia will be in lockdown forever (not literally forever, but years), until there is actually a vaccine that really works, don't you? Australia is in for a very rude awakening if there isn't a reliable vaccine. Otherwise, you'll have to quarantine forever. The alternative, natural immunity or outpatient therapies, like the rest of us.

That is absolutely crazy what your government is doing to the people of Australia. And, I see thousands protesting, so I don't believe for one minute the lockdowns/quarantines are so popular there. Thank God, as of now, anyway-I still live in the land of the free.

The CDC generalization you mentioned is common knowledge and equates to someone simply saying the titanic sank. The link I provided is a detailed summary of the origin and what happened to the flu virus after the pandemic beyond 1918 to support Functionthenlook's statement and suggest your statement Jmm1837 to be incorrect unless a misunderstanding.

"All eight RNA segments of the 1918 influenza virus have been sequenced and analyzed. Their characterization has shed light on the origin of the virus and strongly supports the hypothesis that the 1918 virus was the common ancestor of both subsequent human and swine H1N1 lineages."

The New variant Omicron has changed and evolved with it's ancestor behind it, so has it become more or less virulent and if Omicron is a concern? It's in study now and I hope they determine it's virulence. I won't speculate on the results of the testing in progress but know it's not going away so I will see how it changed before continuing with my vaccinations, I got my first shot last week before this news hit.

Kevin -- Glad to see you got your vaccination. Better late than never. Care to say what prompted you?

DH and I got our third Moderna shots mid-August. If we need to wait six months for a 'new, improved, Omicron, that would be only three months from now.

Speaking of 'bad theater', when can we stop the TSA nonsense that Bush began, which has mushroomed into gigantic Kabuki.

Teresoza said,

”The idea of stopping flights from country X, Y, or Z seems less important than making sure that every passenger is vaccinated and has a negative Covid test before flying. Then they should quarantine a few days before having another negative test.”

Why do the easiest, least expensive thing when it might impinge on someone’s ”freedom”?? The idiocy involved in some of these decisions boggles my mind.

Kevin - your article is simply not relevant to my point, which is that the Spanish flu mutated from a mild to a much more severe disease between the first and second waves. That is an example of a mutation that made the disease more, not less, lethal. And it is indeed common knowledge. While later versions derived from the Spanish flu are less lethal than the second wave, that doesn't change what happened in late 1918, and the millions of people who died because of those mutations.

We simply cannot be confident that Covid won't do the same thing. That some version won't be worse than what we're now dealing with. Why do you think the actual experts are so concerned?

"We simply cannot be confident that Covid won't do the same thing. That some version won't be worse than what we're now dealing with."

Covid has already done the same thing -- Delta is much more virulent than Alpha was, and there's no reason to think that it won't happen again. But, this pandemic started with people pooh-pooh-ing the severity of the disease, even as it killed hundreds of thousands of people and crippled hospitals -- so, why should now be any different? People want to believe it's not as bad as they're being told it's going to be, so they've created their own reality with "alternate facts" and an echo chamber. No surprise.

^^^^^^^^^^^ And ironically, thanks to these reality deniers, Covid rages on and on because they can't get with the program. You cannot move forward if you can't accept where you are.

" "People whose lives are local and rather unaffected by the ban on travel would have different perspectives."

You just cannot help yourself, can you? Never miss an opportunity to belittle the person with whom you disagree, right? "

I wasn't talking about you, not in any way. Don't look for something that isn't there to find. My original response was related to your crowing about what Australia's approach has been, to point out not everyone is delighted nor accepting of the situation. This comment that you mistakenly thought was directed at you was in a way the second part of my original comment. People whose lives have involved frequent and extensive travel (of whom I know several) have been very inconvenienced by the inflexible rules and are upset by them, while those whose lives are more local may not have been affected at all.

It's you who has lashed out at me because I described (and cited) a contingent of people whose opinions differ from yours.

"That's from the CDC website. Good enough for you?"

You've again misunderstood my comment. Instead of pretending to have knowledge that in fact you find using searches, why not just cite your sources when appropriate? That's what most people do (including me, it's what I do), it's a courtesy to do so. Rather than pretend that information you mention is from your own knowledge. Which for many people (and they're easy to identify), is rarely if ever the case.

Elmer - nice attempt at recovery. I use the word "attempt" advisedly, because I don't think your rationalization of the insult implicit in your previous comment will convince too many people. It certainly doesn't convince me, because here you are, doing it again: "Instead of pretending to have knowledge that in fact you find using searches, why not just cite your sources when appropriate?"

By the way, I didn't "crow" about anything, I simply explained what Australia's current policy is and what the results have been. I have never suggested that people aren't disgruntled. I am myself. But most Australians understand the reasons and needs for these policies. Being "very inconvenienced" is the price we pay for living in a caring society. It's a price most of us are willing to pay, even though we are all grumbling about it. If you friends and relatives (assuming they exist) don't understand this, they are in the minority.

"Elmer - nice attempt at recovery."

Further misunderstanding on your part. I was sharing an opinion you apparently didn't like and whether you do or don't like it or agree or disagree with anything else I've said or will say doesn't matter to me at all. Really and truly. But do avoid the personal insults that you seem so prone to express, they're unnecessary and aren't permitted by the terms of use.

... only implicit insults allowed 'round here? LOL. Another thread subverted, eh? Do you keep track?

Sorry about this folks. It appears Elmer has two rules: if he feels insulted or condescended to by a comment, it's the fault of the writer for their questionable and insensitive word choices and failure to take account of the impersonal nature of internet communications; if someone feels insulted or condescended to by Elmer's comments, it's the fault of the reader for misconstruing what Elmer wrote. Anyone besides myself sense a double standard there?

Meanwhile our governor continues to hold us in a "state of emergency" but is off vacationing in Mexico.

Later versions of A/H1N1 influenzas are less severe than the original

I read the Great Influenza by John Barry at the beginning of the Covid pandemic. The influenza eventually disappeared on its own since there was never an effective preventive or cure discovered. At the time, the medical and scientific community didn't know that a virus caused the disease. (Possible reasons for the disappearance explained in the book.)

Mask wearing was encouraged, but there were inadequate supplies in the U.S. as the result of President Wilson favoring troops in Europe over civilians at home.

Meanwhile our governor continues to hold us in a "state of emergency" but is off vacationing in Mexico.

Can you not vacation in Mexico right now if you wish?

Of course we can. ^

Back to the subject matter, what are the prospects that a new and potentially more contagious Covid variant might push vaccine fence-sitters into getting the jab in the US?  Vax rates seem to have stagnated there since the initial, impressive rollout.  I ask because the arrival of Delta in Australia created a sense of urgency which stimulated both the government to gets its delivery system fired up, and the vast majority of citizenry to roll up their sleeves.  The US already has the delivery system in place but could this be a wake up call for the vaccine hesitant?  (I realize hard core anti vaxxers are a lost cause).

Can you not vacation in Mexico right now if you wish?

Someone is traveling somewhere if the crowds at LAX mean anything.

LAX: Sunday sees rush of travelers as Thanksgiving fliers return home

LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- Sunday was expected to be among one of the busiest travel days of the year at Los Angeles International Airport as Thanksgiving flyers return home.

Some 94,000 travelers were expected to pass through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints throughout the day at the facility, according to LAX officials, who urged flight passengers to arrive as early as possible.

I couldn't link the address. So I had to copy and paste. It came on my Facebook feed from Quartz.

The South African doctor who first identified the omicron variant that is spreading in the country and abroad has described the symptoms as she observed them in her patients, stating that the strain is so far producing “very, very mild” effects in them.

Dr Angelique Coetzee told BBC News that she had first noticed the symptoms in a young, male patient around the age of 30 whom she normally knew to be very healthy. He was “extremely tired” as well as having “body aches and pains with a bit of a headache,” a “scratchy” rather than sore throat, and no cough or loss of taste or smell, she said. The doctor was speaking about her experience of a small group of patients, and not making general comments about how all patients will experience it.

What are the symptoms of the omicron variant?

Coetzee tested the man for Covid-19 and found him to be positive, then tested his family and found them all to have the virus, despite showing only “very, very mild symptoms,” she said. For the rest of the day, people kept presenting at her surgery with similar symptoms, and all tested positive. Noticing that the symptoms seemed to differ from the delta variant, which had hitherto been the most prevalent form of covid globally, she alerted the country’s vaccines committee, of which she is a member. They announced their resultant discovery of the omicron variant a few days later.

Perhaps reassuringly for those who are worrying about this new development, Coetzee noted that none of the cases she knew of were serious. “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember that I’m at the epicenter, that’s where I’m practicing, is extremely mild…We haven’t admitted anyone [to hospital]. I spoke to other colleagues of mine: The same picture,” she told the BBC.

Mild symptoms isn't news worthy...gotta leave that part out so people can panic again...Ya know, this "new" variant could have been here for a long time. The only way to test is to actually test the blood for the virus and look at the blood in a lab. They don't do that in a regular old covid test. Maybe when people have been sick but it was very mild, perhaps they had this omicron variant? There probably are many variants already, they just don't actively search for them.

"There probably are many variants already, they just don't actively search for them."

Depends what country you're  in. Genomic sequencing rates are very high here in Australia, much lower in the US, and almost nil in the developing world.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/a-lack-of-covid-19-genomes-could-prolong-the-pandemic-20210628/

^^^^^^^^ The new variant cases identified here in the UK have been sequenced following positive PCR tests. No blood test is involved. They use the mucus sample from the PCR test. A high proportion of the tests is sequenced and around 25% of the genomic sequences worldwide have been done here.

Just a thought: If it turns out that Omicron creates only a mild illness (not saying it does, this is just a 'what if' thought) its increased infectiousness could actually be a positive attribute if the antibodies created could ward off fiercer variants.

Apparently though, it's a negative as it has more spikes on it and thus many more opportunities to mutate into something else which will make it harder for vaccines and treatments to keep up with...especially if it's very contagious which means it will spread even more quickly.

As of this morning, something like 15 countries have confirmed cases, including several in Europe and our northern friends in Canada.

No travel ban for any of those countries. 🤷‍♂️ Only the poor countries of Africa. Because the citizens of Botswana often jetset to Miami for the weekend, I guess.

"Just a thought: If it turns out that Omicron creates only a mild illness (not saying it does, this is just a 'what if' thought) its increased infectiousness could actually be a positive attribute if the antibodies created could ward off fiercer variants."

That's a very big "IF", and we have no reason to expect the antibodies after an infection to a) be long lasting, and b) be effective against future variants.

We know, with respect to Delta, that protection from previous infection is many times weaker than protection from vaccination. We also know that the more often a virus is transmitted to someone else, the more likely a virus is to mutate (that's why the R-nought value, as well as world-wide vaccination, is so important).

And remember, Covid-19, in all it's variants, is a disease that generally showed up with only mild signs in the vast majority of people - only about 15% end up in hospital......However, even a case fatality rate of just over 1.5% in the US has meant over 750,000 people who've died so far.

Then we get into "long Covid" symptoms, which is turning out to be almost 10% of people who were sick, sometimes with only mild symptoms.

That's a very big "IF", and we have no reason to expect the antibodies after an infection to a) be long lasting, and b) be effective against future variants.

^^^^Not true. eta: Antibodies may not be active, but the Memory B cells and T cells will activate your antibodies, which provide immunity and have been lasting as long as the naturally-infected person has had it so far, from the beginning of Covid, and with a high probability, your B cells and T cells will remember for years. Since Covid hasn't been around "for years" yet, we can only go by what has been going on the last year and half or so. But, the naturally-infected are showing they are STiLL immune all during this time.

Interesting journal regarding - U.S./CDC is not being as transparent as other countries on natural immunity https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2101

We know, with respect to Delta, that protection from previous infection is many times weaker than protection from vaccination.

^^^^Not true. eta: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.20.21255670v1.full.pdf

This study shows:

Vaccination was highly effective

- Estimated efficacy for documented infection of 92·8%; Hospitalization 94·2%; Severe illness 94·4%

Protection from prior SARS-CoV-2 infection

- Estimated efficacy for documented infection of 94·8%; Hospitalization 94·1%; Severe illness 96·4%;

Ministry of Health during summer surge Between 5 July and 3 August (over half a million infected but unvaccinated) Just 1% of weekly new cases were in people who had previously had covid-19 Dvir Aran, biomedical data, Technion–Israel Institute of Technology. These numbers look very low, the data suggest that the recovered have better protection than people who were vaccinated.

And, something I have been worried about for some time now, the Systemic side-effects from the vaccine were more common in people previously infected.

______________________________________________________

My view is, any policy that doesn't consider natural immunity is effectively anti-scientific. This is what the CDC is doing, being anti-scientific and politically biased.

Yes, both are true: (edited to add that the post I was responding to has since been removed, so when I say "both are true", you can no longer see the post claiming they weren't true. Sorry)

US adults who previously had COVID-19 contracted the disease at more than 5 times the rate of those who were fully vaccinated, according to data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). [Bozio CH, Grannis SJ, Naleway AL, et al. Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 Among Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19-Like Illness with Infection-Induced or mRNA Vaccine-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Immunity -- Nine States, January-September 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. ePub: 29 October 2021. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7044e1]

People who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 can expect to become reinfected within one or two years, unless they take precautions such as getting vaccinated and wearing masks. That's the prediction of modelling based on the genetic relationships between SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses..,..The findings also warn that people could be reinfected in just a few months if they are not vaccinated. “Immunity is relatively short-lived,” says study co-author Jeffrey Townsend, a bioinformatician at the Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Connecticut. “You should still get vaccinated even if you got infected.” Read the rest: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02825-8

So, just to make it short and sweet-you are saying THIS VIRUS acts totally different than ANY AND ALL OTHER VIRUSES out there, in all these years, in regards to immunity? That is hogwash! The only thing that is acting different is the vaccine(s)-that does not work like traditional vaccines!

The latest celebrity, Lebron James double-vaccinated, now tests positive for Covid. You truly seeing nothing wrong with this picture?