I think the chart looks like a duck.

But it's not quacking. so . . .

You've got it backwards, Mark. It's not a duck, it's a pelican with very full bill.

It looks like a flying dragon with fire.......

Realtors here (coastal Northern CA) will tell you they are frantically busy! Things have never been better!

Sure they're busy. Rates sank because the Fed only has 1 tool left in its toolbox and that's the Fed Funds rate. They have stated publicly they are willing to even go NEGATIVE. This is unprecedented.

The Fed is not doing this because they are being kind to consumers.

The # of unemployed varies according to who's compiling the info, but the "best guess" for May was around 26 or 27 million. It's far higher than was seen during the Great Recession of 2008-10:

Fortune: What is the real unemployment rate? (May 2020)

The article is important because it points out that workers in the "gig" economy aren't counted. Also, workers EXPECTING to be recalled - even if they aren't, or are receiving unemployment benefits, are also not counted.

>>A second wave of COVID-19 remains a short term threat to housing as the number of new cases reignite and states finetune their plans to reopen.>>

Yeah....no. To say COVID is "short-term" is deluding ourselves. At least not in states where hospitalizations are rising (death rates don't increase for about 2-3 weeks after hospitalizations increase).

We're not even out of the first wave yet and now younger adults and even teens are being infected. Plus they're going to have to keep an eye on those long-term effects since many now consider it an inflammatory disease with far-reaching effects.

States are not "finetuning" their plans. They are shutting back down again, and thus the unemployment rate will creep up again. Small businesses are shutting down, often for good. Out here in coastal Northern CA, where small businesses are part of the main engine for growth, I expect the attrition rate to hit above 50% within the next four months.

Most independent small business owners simply cannot make rent and expenses, especially the increased costs of PPEs for staff, in an uncertain future where consumers are becoming accustomed to on-line 'delivery to your doorstep'.

Rents in SF have already dropped on the high end, in a greater percentage than has been seen in over 20 yrs.

Sales increased only because the market is absolutely starved for inventory. This was true all across the US - remember articles about realtors complaining they had buyers but not enough sellers, last year and early this year?

I seem to recall that just prior to the October 2008 stock market collapse, RE prices were sky-high but just slowly, every so slowly, declining during the previous 15 months.

Then the Dow collapsed, and so did the RE market. A lot of people who bought homes were suddenly under water.

I'm not saying it's guaranteed to happen again, mind you. But I am saying that I'm not likely to believe rosy forecasts made by people who have a vested interest in urging consumers to buy NOW!

In 1989 we were a couple of those RE buyers who took the bait. Been there, done that!

.......how fast we forget the past, LOL.

July 13 update - single family homes, entire US - from Altos Research.

I wonder if the Altos Report included this

https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2020/7/jump-in-early-stage-delinquencies-leads-to-highest-overall-delinquency-rate-in-over-four-years.aspx

Did you even look at the video? Yes, they do mention delinquencies and don't see them affecting the market in the near future. Just like in 2008 banks won't be dumping properties all at once and some properties will stay in foreclosure limbo for years and years.

I signed up online for their emails back in 2008 and they started sending out free emails again recently. Just another data point and opinion to share here.

You recently said banks weren’t making bad loans like 2008? Now banks won’t dump properties caused by bad loans all at once? Those foreclosure numbers don’t even include the over 4 million mortgages not being paid due to forbearance. These are actual facts not opinions. And by 2008 housing was already crashing, I sold my home in late 2005 and watched.

I don't think I brought up loans on this thread before, maybe it was someone else. In any case, these are not "bad" loans. These are mostly people who could afford their loans, but have been affected by covid shutdowns, which is different from being given a loan you could not afford from the beginning. Remember NINJA loans? The banks certainly tightened their lending practices after 2008, requiring real down payments and income verification.

I don't think that my statement that banks won't be quick to foreclose on people or dump properties into the marketplace is wrong. Not sure what you are arguing about?

I tap out of this conversation, have more important things to do, like got to pick up belongings for our car that was totaled and luckily only ended up with my teen driver having a broken arm. Another teen driver was at fault and caused the accident. The not so fun part of being a parent ...

I thought the graph looked like a bucking horse or a bucking bull.

I had the same opinion. Now, it is a great time to invest in real estate, especially when the estate is situated near to mountains or sea because with this pandemic many people want to spend this time where is fresh air, far away from the big cities or in a big garden. With this pandemic beginning, I invested together https://www.homeguidemyrtlebeach.com in these houses and now it brings me good income each month. Moreover, I can sell one of this estate and I can return all the money which I invested.