Arkansas girl, touching something is the least of your worries especially if you're not wearing a mask.

I am not much of a betting person... but when I bet, I bet for ice cream. One dip I am not sure... 2 dips, I am not positive, 3 dips, you might as well not bet with me, cause I will win.

BUT, this one.. no, that is to sad of a situation, I can not bet.

Moni

I don't think it will take long given the amount of selfish people unwilling to take even basic precautions.

Wearing a cloth mask isn't going to keep ME safe either! It may keep YOU safe but I'm not sick. And, if you can believe anything they say anymore, the WHO NOW is saying that it is RARE to spread this if you are asymptomatic. They are flip flopping more than a fish on the shore!

CHI, no one is making you go anywhere!

That's not the point. The point is that the longer people refuse to take precautions, the longer this will go on. And people refusing to wear masks because they believe they aren't sick is extremely selfish.

New Zealand is a great example. They took their response very seriously and have now eradicated Coronavirus.

You do what you want to do and I'll do what I do?

US has 329 million people, New Zealand has only 5 million. PA alone had 12.8 million. There is no comparison. No active cases for 17 days having been reported is a far cry from eradication. How many have not been reported, but still active? Or are asymptomatic, but still have the virus. In some cases it takes several weeks for a patient to test clean.

True Function, you can't compare NZ to the US because they have a gov't that took CoV2 incredibly seriously early on and took (and continued) every measure to eradicate it from their land. We here can hardly say the same.

Why does the number of total cases matter? Deaths matter...most of us if we got it will survive and that is really what we need for this not not have the strangle hold it does. There are certain populations that must be cautions..3 or 10 million cases isn't the issue! Death's are the issue.

I'm quite annoyed, to put it nicely, about so many people basically thumbing their noses at this virus as personally, it will keep me from seeing and touching my first grandbaby in a few months. Thanks a lot.

arcy_gw Exactly. Al this testing and counting does little. What it can do is show us how many people survive this leading to ,hopefully, natural herd immunity. Some of the scientists working on a vaccine have themselves said part of the problem they are having is finding enough illness in time to develop a vaccine since the virus seems to be infecting less prevalent already. This pandemic may burn itself out before much comes about in the way of a vaccine which will still take years to be tested to see whether it is really effective.

Focus should be on keeping the vulnerable safe and the healthy living their lives. But it's not politically useful to listen to what practicing physicians are saying so we are being led around like sheep by the number crunching data scientists instead who run our public health systems.

However some comments were basically let the healthy live and let the ones that are not become dust quickly because this earth does not need them. Remember them after all they no longer count.

Ghostlyvision. In case you are not aware we live in a democracy with 329 million people and 3,119,884 sq miles. NZ is a monarchy with only 5 million people and 103,483 sq miles. I would and so should you be very scared of a government that can have such total control over your personal life for any reason. A virus cannot be called eradicated just because one, two or more countries say it is. It doesn't work that way. It has to be declared by an health org such as WHO and it has to be eradicated world wide. Stop looking at the sesensationalized news and quit believing everything they are trying to feed you.

Sjerin, tthere is absolutely no reason you can't see your new grandbaby. Even for doomsday people it is possible. All you have to do is quarantined for 14 days if your afraid of infecting them or if your afraid of them infecting you then they could quarantine for 14 days or both . You don't have to play martyr.

Maifleur, you don't comprehend what you are reading. It wasn't said to just let the old people die. It was said to protect the old and/or sick people while letting the healthy continue on with their lives. There is so many options available today that you don't ever have to step out of your house. You are acting as a spoiled child with a broken leg. Just because you can't go out to recess, then nobody should be allowed out to recess. They should just stay inside and be miserable with you.

function some on here have mentioned letting the old folks and those with compromised immune systems just tough it out. Perhaps you did not understand that telling people with age and health problems to just continue as if everything was fine was basically telling them to go kill themselves because they do not count but it was repeated often enough.

My guess (don't have actual date) is day of first presidential debate

People who don't want to wear masks don't seem to understand how it's exactly like smoking in a restaurant. Anyone remember that? Non-smoking section? There'd be a partition in an open room, as though that was supposed to stop it from being airborne, that is, keep it from wafting into the clean air areas. You don't seem to get what you want is affecting those of us who don't want your germs being airborne.

Muzzles?? Wow. Just wow.

Would you hit me over the head with a plank ... a hammer ... or an axe?

If you hit me hard enough ... my only problem is who is going to pay for my funeral (and maybe to help me get stoned)!

Hit me lightly and I may be too badly hurt to go to work (but, being retired and with some pensions that show up regularly, I don't have to work to pay for my living). If I'm so badly injured that I can't look after myself, I have a problem.

If you hit me much harder, I may be unable to work to earn a living, long term, even for life, so how am I to be able to live? Will you help provide for my care?

Suppose I am mentally disturbed, so unable to cope fully with managing daily life? Will you help provide for an injection to put me out of my misery?

If you refuse to wear a mask, to help protect me should you be a not yet symptomatic carrier of covid 19, or if you refuse to keep six feet away from me to avoid transmitting the contagion ...

... there's a difference?

In what way?

Yes, many get over the virus' short-term consequences ... but many suffer serious and life-long reduction of lung, or other functions.

Though there are far more rigorous rules governing the construction and maintenance of both commercial aircraft, the pilots who fly them and the rules governing flight ... many fear to fly, as for many it's an unusual experience, and when there's a crash it's big news.

But they'll ride to the airport in a car totally unconcerned, as it's a routine of life and they're used to it. They don't think that for 100,000 miles an individual travels, travelling by car is many times more risky than by plane. Similarly, many won't consider seriously the risks that they put others in, as well as themselves, when they refuse to exercise proven risk-reduction practices during a pandemic.

ole joyful - part of the assessed to be high-risk crowd - regarding covid19 pandemic, but probably much less so regarding a hammer over the head by a vicious or negligent neighbour, who may be little concerned about the pandemic risks

"Stop looking at the sesensationalized news and quit believing everything they are trying to feed you." _Functiontrhenlook

I shouldn't believe the county judge and mayor when they say my area has hit record numbers of cases each of the past several days? When they say ICU capacity is now over 100% in one of the public hospitals and close to 100% in two others? When we're being told we're close to being back under a stay in order? Yeah, that's 'sensational' alright, just not the good kind.

Ghostlyvision, what the heck are you talking about. We were talking about the news sensationalizing reports NZ claiming they have eradicated the virus. When there is no such thing. Eradication has to be done world wide. Now your off in totally different direction from the NZ .

First you can't be over a 100 % capacity in an ICU . 100% of beds is full. What are they doing putting 2 per bed to be over? And hospitals in the same area , if one doesn't have any more available beds will ship a patient to the nearest hospital with available beds. Beside what county and city are you talking about anyway?

Joyfullguy, we are not in this altogether like the concept they are trying to push you into believing. What you hear from the so called medical experts that have been wrong before and keep flip flopping on advise like a beached fish is that homemade masks prevent the virus from spreading. Once in a while you might hear the word study used, but what study, when was it done, who conducted the study, did it test specifically the small size of covid? You don't hear that mentioned. Even N95s only filter the intake of a contaminant, it isn't designed to filter the exhale of a contaminant. Think of a vacuum bag. It only works one way. Sorry, but I'm not trapping the virus you expelled against my face with a muzzle. The concentration of the amount of virus matters, the higher the concentration the higher the likelihood that I will become ill. I certainly am not going to trap it to my face increasing the concentration inhaled that you exhaled if I can go muzzle free. Even surgical masks were designed to reduce bacteria, not viruses. Bacteria is larger than virus particles.

Function, do you work for the trump admin?

Sjerin, no . Why do you?

I'm talking about the Houston, Texas area, Function. You mentioned listening to 'health organizations' as an outlet for 'non-sensationalized' news, I gave you the authorities in my area giving us the health updates, which I believe to be factual, not hysterical, or sensationalized.

Why does WHO have to declare NZ free of CoV2 - their health authorities say no active cases of CoV2, are they not considered credible? Is there some secret agenda for them to declare such? Or just maybe it's true, because they handled their outbreak with fervor and determination?

If you reach 100% capacity and have to open a 'non-ICU room' to ICU beds, I suppose that can be considered over capacity (104% capacity was what was reported).

Lacking a comma in your second sentence, function, looks like you're assuming that sjerin does work for the Trump admin., and asking for her reason for so doing.

As for hospitals working at overcapacity, have you heard of patients being accomodated on gurneys in the halls?

o j

Function is correct about the N95 masks with ports only protecting you, not others from your exhaust. This is why my sister, the administrator of a long term care center requires all her staff to wear an N95 with a special fit cloth cover. She sewed them all one weekend with her daughter-in-law. Since there was a run on most cotton fabrics, she bought super hero sheets! They had to buy colored undies to harvest enough elastic to make them- all other elastic stocks were sold out.

No one has caught it at her facility. All staff and maintenance workers are checked for proper dual masks daily. Incoming patients are quarantined in two separate buildings for 14 days before getting permanent rooms.

Doesn't matter when we reach 3 million. I'm betting we will get to at least 100 million-conservatively.

ghostlyvision The media sensationalizes. It is very common for ICUs to run at almost capacity. Some of the ICU admissions are planned admissions due to surgeries. Working in the ED for 15 years in the 80s -90s it wasn't unusual to hold a patient till ICU could transfer a patient to a step down unit. Hospitals do not like empty beds.

Below is from your channel 13. From May 21st There was no data available for current conditions at Johnson or Taub.

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) -- Intensive care units at two of Harris County's hospitals are at or near capacity, and the COVID-19 crisis is only adding to the problem.

The ICU at Lyndon B. Johnson Hospital in northeast Houston was at 100 percent capacity Thursday morning, according to system officials.

Ben Taub hospital was at 90 percent capacity Thursday, which means there is at risk of running out of beds in its ICU.

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, both facilities reported a high capacity in ICUs.

Both hospitals are almost always full but are now treating about 20 percent of their patients for COVID-19.

"You mentioned listening to 'health organizations' as an outlet for 'non-sensationalized' news" By the way when did I ever say that?

Function, in my post I was referring to this, from reporters covering the outbreak on the Houston Chronicle:

---

Just now: For 2nd straight day, #Houston area has hit a new record for #COVID hospitalizations, with 1,121.
ICU usage crept up to 90%.
More troubling, @jenny_deam reports, is ICU usage at two Harris County public hospitals:
LBJ — 104%
Ben Taub — 93%

---

"You mentioned listening to 'health organizations' as an outlet for 'non-sensationalized' news" By the way when did I ever say that?

When you said:

"It has to be declared by an health org such as WHO and it has to be eradicated world wide. Stop looking at the sesensationalized news and quit believing everything they are trying to feed you." (in reference to NZ being clear of active cases).

Our local reporters are reporting the actual CoV2 cases, hospitalizations/ICU capacity, they and others, such as Andy Slavitt, Florian Krammer, Nicholas Christakis, Trevor Bedford and Scott Gottlieb MD are who I've been 'believing', hardly "sensationalized news" purveyors.

The number of cases means nothing.

What people need to be aware of is the percentage of those tested who are positive, the percentage of the positive cases that are severe, the percentage of the severe cases that are hospitalized, and the percentage of those hospitalized who die ONLY of Covid - and who don't have any underlying health conditions.

Underlying health conditions matter. For instance, just because someone has asthma, doesn't mean they would've died from asthma. They could've had it under control and would've lived decades more except they contracted COVID. Don't discount underlying conditions. There are plenty of conditions which weaken a person, but wouldn't have killed them.

ghostlyvision, I use many sources for info, not just health org. But, a fool only completely believes in the media. By the way, only 20% of the ICU patients are covid patients in LBJ and Taub. The media didn't tell you that, did they. NO Sensationalized new or half truths, take your pick. Sorry, but busy day today and most of the rest of the week. If I have time later I will comment further.

joyfulguy

I worked 37 years in health care. Yes, in the ER there was a few times before we expanded that we had minor injuries or illnesses on stretchers outside the rooms, but never on the hospital floors. And most certainly not ICU patients. You don't park ICU patients in halls. LOL Your watching too many for entertainment medical shows on TV.

Function:

A fool? Okay.

Does it matter what the illnesses are as far as capacity in ICUs if there is no room for another patient?

We've gone very far afield on this thread's purpose so I'll just finish off with the old 'Houston, we have a problem' and leave it at that.

When my husband had an ablation where the machine did some strange stuff and was kept overnight he was on a bed next to the nurses station for several hours until they could decide where to put him. Because it does not happen at all hospitals does not mean it does not happen.

I was on a bed the hallway of an ER after my initial examination determined I should be admitted. I had to wait until they put me somewhere else. Another time I went to the ER by ambulance and it was decided I needed rehab services. I slept through a lot of it, but I was put into the hallway for quite a long time. I arrived at night in the dark, and didn't leave until the following morning when another ambulance came to transport me to a short term care facility.

I remembered this thread taking bets on when we would reach 3 million cases and went back and found it. Why? Because today the U.S. reached 5 million cases, according to the New York Times. Here’s a couple of quotes from the article:

” the United States passed another milestone on Saturday: more than five million known coronavirus infections”

” The United States reported its millionth case on April 28, more than three months after the first reported case. The country passed two million cases on June 10, three million on July 7 and four million on July 23.”

And don't forget, when it was 15 cases the cases were going to be zero really quickly.

I caution everyone to be mindful of a few things about these numbers.

The number of "cases" is simply the number of positive tests.

The number of positive tests is skewed in ways that you probably don't realize: when someone tests positive for Covid, they are tested regularly until they get a negative result. The tests for these thousands of patients are not kept separate from "new" tests, so you will DAILY have thousands of reported "new" positive results, even when these thousands of results are simply further confirmation of a continued infection - NOT a new infection.

Source: a friend who works for a state health department, and a friend who works as an ICU nurse in a busy metropolitan hospital.

^^^ That is not supposed to happen, so your friends should report the incorrect case counts.

WMTV - No matter how many times someone tests positive for COVID-19, it only counts once. Some people who test positive for COVID-19 may end up taking the test again before they are completely clear of the virus, leading to another positive result,

https://www.nbc15.com/2020/07/15/your-positive-covid-19-test-wont-count-more-than-once/

There is also the people who tested false positive like the governor of Ohio. And the people who scheduled the test but never went and received notification in the mail that they tested positive. Those numbers dont get removed either. Then there are the people who never got tested and labeled possible. They are also put into the positive count.

... and all the Covid deaths that weren’t counted as such.

About 30% of COVID deaths may not be classified as such

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/about-30-covid-deaths-may-not-be-classified-such

The problem is they are counting everyone who tested positive or possible as a covid death even if they didn't die of covid.

and this matters because?

There are more people on this planet than there has ever been ....

It is a PANDEMIC!

I missed my guess of 4 million by a month. Those that still think it is a fraud may find out soon enough.

It is a virus. One that is pandemic. Like all viruses it will run its course. The spread can be slowed but it cannot be stopped. If one feels vulnerable then they should take all the measures possible to avoid exposure. That is the best we can do. Obsessing over positives is less important than survival rate versus deaths. Just like with pandemics in the past.

The tests results are all over the place. In our area now that the positives have gone down, the public health departments are upset they aren't higher due to a reporting glitch. Well those errors can go both ways. God forbid we publish good news.

I have heard directly from two different physicians and a coroner's investigator that the results of all the dashboards are corrupted. Some places are not retesting at all. After as little as ten days people including health care workers are allowed back to work. Other areas are testing the same people multiple times. Perfectly healthy people are lining up for free testing. There are way too many cooks in the kitchen and they are all seasoning the pot to their personal tastes.

and the there's those that wait in line, and leave, then they get a note in the mail they tested positive, but never had the test.

Our state spent millions of dollars on the Utah test, and our DHS has to wait in line to get results and get the results back to people while 'other entities' are notified first ... that is messed up big time.

Oh sorry, we sent that to you Friday, whoops looks like it didn't go out ...

Three million on July 7 ... so I guess the person who guessed in that area won the bet.

So much for those guessing in early August.

As I'm an old guy, if I get it, it'll probably kill me.

Even so, that may be my best result, for reports are that many survivors carry such serious compromises to their health, in many cases lung function, as to be so close to disability that they may find it difficult to find employment.

That being a problem for others, as I've been on pension for the aged for just over 25 years.

That said - I value the measure of health that is possible for me very highly, so appreciate others wearing masks, keeping two metres distance in public, washing hands frequently, etc.

Recent reports in this area are that many catching the disease are in the mid 20s - 40s age group, so I guess they're not as invulnerable as they'd thought.

ole joyful

Wow, someone likes to lecture, which is fine, but then throwing in some insults is not fine.

To whom are you referring, Yaya?

I am looking at the number of cases that are still showing as active. Even discounting that 50% never have a second test to show that the virus has cleared their bodies the number keeps growing. The longer a person has a disease the greater the chances that their body will suffer permanent damage. Recovered only means the virus is not detectible in the body not that the symptoms from it are ended.

I have come to the conclusion that there will be many of all ages that are disabled by this virus. Even people with mild symptoms are showing damage to their bodies.