What Are You Going To Do After The Pandemic
6 years ago
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- 6 years ago
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What do YOU do with tulips after?
Comments (19)I have to jump in on this one -- In the original White Flower Farm book published by Little Brown in the 1960s, they say you can dig up any tulip when the foliage starts to dull. Not turn brown, not turn partly brown, and not totally senesce, just dull. The likened the color to a dull olive green I leave tulips in place for only *one week* after bloom, that is all the energy they seem to need. I pull tulip bulbs up (or dig the up, depending on the soil) and bag them in net onion sacks (or orange sacks) with the foliage and roots still on them. I was told by an oldtimer that the roots store energy and if they remain on the bulbs, the energy will go back into the bulb as they dry. As wacky as only one week after bloom might sound to you, can you imagine any kind of photosynthesis working when the foliage is folded over and tightly banded? I store over summer where they will be HOT and DRY. This is really important. I replant them at first frost when I dig the dahlias that are in the same spot over summer. Needless to say between years of tulips and dahlias and mulch, the soil is very friable and I actually pulled up most the tulip bulbs this year, like harvesting carrots or something! I noticed today the foliage is still a little green on them, even though they were pulled in April. Just thought I would post my method for you to consider. BTW, I don't have huge success with Parrot Tulips -- about 50% Lime...See MoreWhat is your one 'go to' Christmas item you use year after year
Comments (7)Wow! Great bargains! Red plates would be a good addition! My one "go-to" item that I use for Christmas is the Holy Family I made in ceramics class back in the mid-70's. It was greenware that I cleaned & painted & then the teacher fired it in a kiln. I love it because it was made after the birth of our own son. Here's a close-up view of it a couple yrs ago: And then here it is this yr (evening photo) on top of china cabinet: Thanks, swest, for starting this thread! & for sharing! Jeanne S....See MoreWhat did you do with your wedding ring after you got divorced?
Comments (17)My ex wore his ring to work one day- a no no for plumbers- and he thinks it fell down the drain in the back of Safeway. Whatever. I gave my band that matched his to my bro. They disliked each other so bro and I thought it would be funny. Bro used it to go to bars in San Fran. He would use it if creepy guys tried to hit on him. He lost it after putting it in the pocket of his Member's Only coat. Yes it was 1986. I kept the engagement ring and took the 1/4 stone out and some emeralds from an antique ring I purchased while married and on my 21st birthday made myself a ring to celebrate my divorce. I still wear it and my dh of 20 years does not care. I still have the setting and was told it would be worth not a lot because it was a mix of white and yellow gold. My husband was married before also. His ring cracked just after he learned she was having an affair with one of his old friends from school. We still have it. I could probably take the two, along with my gold crown I had removed and make at least a few dollars, ya think? I did keep one item and still have it. For our first anniversary I went to an antique store and purchased an Elgin 5 ruby pocketwatch guts and had it set into a gold case. It was really cool. I had engraved "for all of time" on the back. He never really appreciated it or me so I kept it when I left him. He understood. I paid $50 and had to save every dime to buy it. He gave me a little heart ring with a chip in it. I still have it too. Thought of giving it to my dd but I think I would rather sell it and buy her something else. I took watch to an appraisal show in town a few years ago. They told me it was worth about $300 and that they would buy it but really suggested I hang onto it as it would appreciate a lot. Even if I sold the case separate from the guts, the guts were pretty unique. They said it was still valuable even with the engraving. I still have it and will probably get around to selling it. Should take it in again just to see. There are not a lot of master watchmakers around these days but there are a few in town that are reputable....See MoreWhat will happen with remodeling after the worst of the pandemic?
Comments (38)Here is my 2 cents and worth at least half that... We have to remember that "the economy" is not some abstract thing. It is income for people. GDP is literally the compensation people receive for their efforts. This compounds because of the GDP multiplier, simply put... If you lose your job the GDP loses more than your wages, because you spend your money on things like rent, food, entertainment, clothes, etc. Those businesses where you spend your money use it to pay their employees who use it buy stuff so still other businesses can pay their employees. So the economic effect of 10% more unemployment can be large. The current GDPNow estimate (which uses indicators to estimate actual GDP and is not a projection) is scary, the latest estimate is -41.9%. I assure you, you are going to feel a 42% contraction in GDP. Yes, construction is still going, house prices are up, etc. However, that doesn't mean a lot, as the government and businesses have done lots of things to delay the pain, but they have not erased it. I am just letting renters who can't pay rent right now live for free, I am planning on crediting all my renters 3 months free rent, but if they don't go back to work I am eventually going to have to evict them. I can let people live rent free during a pandemic but I can't do it forever. However, it is going to change the money I have available to invest and the same is true for a lot of people. We still need people investing in bonds and MBS's to fuel the mortgage machine and they are not, so something is going to have to happen there. Maybe mortgage rates that are effectively negative. That has been done before and it does work, but there is the moral hazard problem. The government can keep injecting money during the pandemic and delay the pain Keynesian style, but eventually they will have to stop. ----- Here is my projection, it is an educated projection, but it is still just a guess. Actually, my projection is OK, it is my assumptions that are questionable. There will be a slow down in entry level home purchases (which drive the entire housing market). Houses will not lose that much value but they will slow down appreciation, largely this is going to happen because the number of buyers and sellers will both go down. The HELOC market is going to get tighter. We are going to move away from 100% & 95% LTV and go back to 80% and 85% LTV. Rates will stay down but approval will be a bit more difficult, and you will see more actual appraisals ordered. The low wage labor market will get a lot more competitive and construction wages will drop. Construction costs will drop with that and construction will become a bit more competitive. However, we could also see people more willing to improve existing homes than sell, so it might balance out and just become more profitable. In general, I believe there is a serious possibility that we see a change in liquidity versus equity. For years we have seen people preach about paying off your house because we have had a few asset bubbles in the last 30 years... Now we are seeing a liquidity crunch, where people with paid off houses and little savings are driving to food banks in order to eat. I suspect we may see people start valuing cash savings over home equity. I also believe the rental rates will become more competitive for the next 5 years. So that may have positive or negative affects on home value depending on your area. --- If you use any of that stuff above to make a decision, well you're a gambler. My advice to clients today is largely the same as it was before with a few modifications. If you are making a move I would suggest you not depend on a quick sale of your existing property. It may sell quick and that is great but make sure you can make two payments significantly longer than you hope to. You can't eat your shingles, don't sacrifice access to liquidity for equity. Until we can see past this, which will be a couple of months from now, plan but don't execute....See More- 6 years ago
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