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chisue

Virus Peak Predictions -- Illinois

chisue
4 years ago
last modified: 4 years ago

The Sunday Chicago Tribune shows two disparate models for Covid-19 in my state. (Headline is "When will Illinois outbreak peak?")

IMO the facts are couched to avoid panic. It's not until the final paragraph that we read that deaths in Illinois are expected to total 18,000 -- BEST CASE -- and that dependent on two factors:

1) Public complance with staying home and

2) Massive increases in medical capacity.

Without the above, the projected deaths in Illinois rise to 64,000.

One model shows a peak April 20. One shows a peak June 8-15. Each model shows 'enough beds' under certain circumstances (but not enough ICU beds/vents) ONLY IF people adhere to strict shelter-at-home rules. The June model shows 'enough beds' if we ALSO use the extra time to achieve a near doubling of beds from the current level of 14,552 (counting every bed in the state).

WITHOUT strict shelter-at-home, the April 20 peak model shows a need for over 50,000 hospitalizations. The June peak model shows 69,599 needing hospitalization, with the tipping point of need outpacing supply starting May 11.

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