I couldn't get through the first page of that agitprop. I mean really, anyone who has to cite Patrick Moore is grasping at straws. I thought Moore was stumping for AgBioTech. He must be expanding his horizons. I was surprised to see the authors didn't cite Bjorn Lomberg (sp?). So, what about the authors? Skipping to the last page, I see Schwartz runs a company called Global Business Network. Here is what Schwartz does for a living. ..... Plotting Your Scenarios An Introduction to the Art and Process of Scenario Planning Peter Schwartz, Jay Ogilvy December 2004 "Plotting Your Scenarios" by GBN cofounders Peter Schwartz and Jay Ogilvy is an invaluable introduction to the art and process of scenario planning, originally published in Learning From the Future (Liam Fahey and Robert Randall, eds, Wiley, 1998). Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which todays decisions may be played out. They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues. To be an effective planning tool, scenarios should be written in the form of absorbing, convincing stories that describe a broad range of alternative futures relevant to an organizationÂs success. Thoughtfully constructed, believable plots help managers to become deeply involved in the scenarios and perhaps gain new understanding of how their organization can manage change as a result of this experience. The more involved managers get with scenarios, the more likely it becomes that they will recognize their important but less obvious implications. Moreover, scenarios with engrossing plots can be swiftly communicated throughout the organization and will be more easily remembered by decision-makers at all levels of management. This essay offers an approach to developing alternative scenarios with engrossing plots. Part One describes two different methods for answering a fundamental challenge: how to whittle the virtually infinite number of possible futures that could be described down to a finitely manageable three or four plots that will shed the most light on a specific organizationÂs future. Part Two then addresses the inverse question: Once you have determined the skeletal premises of just three or four scenarios, how do you put flesh on the skeletons? How do you elaborate the basic logics of skeletal scenarios into compelling stories? If Part One is about whittling an infinite number of possible futures down to a finite number of skeletal scenarios, Part Two is then about beefing up those skeletal outlines to discover the insights managers need. Part Three then adds 10 tips based on our 20 years of experience developing and using scenarios. ..... (http://www.gbn.com/, http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?aid=34550) We should realistically review the story in Wired according to how well it fulfilled the scenario planning formula. I didn't think he did a very good job here. I wasn't convinced, since the bit I read was so contrived from the beginning.

Wayne, here's the headline...Crystal power Palmtop Nuclear Fusion Device Invented By Michael Schirber LiveScience Staff Writer posted: 27 April 2005 01:00 pm ET The nuclear reaction that powers the Sun has been reproduced in a pocket-sized device, scientists announced today. Researchers have for years tried to harness nuclear fusion to power the world. But its cousin, nuclear fission -- the breaking apart of atoms -- is the only method so far commercially viable. The latest invention is not in the same league as efforts to build complex commercial reactors. The new device creates a relatively small number of reactions, and requires more energy to operate than it produces. The Real Deal (AP) - Previous claims of tabletop fusion have been met with skepticism and even derision by physicists. In one of the most notable cases, Dr. B. Stanley Pons of the University of Utah and Martin Fleischmann of Southampton University in England shocked the world in 1989 when they announced that they had achieved so-called cold fusion at room temperature. Their work was discredited after repeated attempts to reproduce it failed. Fusion experts noted that the new UCLA experiment is credible because, unlike the 1989 work, it did not violate basic principles of physics. "This doesn't have any controversy in it because they're using a tried and true method,'' said David Ruzic, professor of nuclear and plasma engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. "There's no mystery in terms of the physics.'' -- Associated Press But the configuration is so small and simple that its creators think it may inspire unforeseen applications. "I certainly find it interesting that you can heat a cubic centimeter crystal in your hand, then plunge it in cold water and it will cause nuclear fusion," Seth Putterman from the University of California Los Angeles told LiveScience. Putterman's lay description greatly oversimplifies how the compact apparatus works. Specifically, Putterman and collaborators heat a pyroelectric crystal, lithium tantalite, from minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit to plus 45 in a matter of minutes. This generates an electrical charge -- 100,000 volts -- across the tiny crystal, which is housed in a chamber filled with deuterium gas, a heavy form of hydrogen. The high voltage is focused onto a needle-thin tip, which strips electrons from nearby deuterium nuclei and then accelerates them at a solid target containing deuterium. When two deuterium nuclei collide together at high speed, they fuse to form helium. The Sun also fuses atoms in thermonuclear reactions that create light and heat. The byproduct of the newly discovered lab reaction is a particle called the neutron. The scientists detect about 1,000 neutrons per second. Because neutrons are so penetrating, Putterman said that a hand-held neutron source might one-day be used to do geologic surveys or to look into cargo containers for nuclear devices. "Current neutron generators are extremely cumbersome," Putterman said. "They are about as big as a dentists X-ray machine, so you canÂt carry them into the field." Pyroelectric crystals could also provide a beam of ions for use as a microthruster in a miniature spacecraft. The research is described in the April 28 issue of the journal Nature.

Wind turbines have been pretty tough on the raptor population here in CA. I'm much more excited about the possibility of learning from wind turbines technology applying it towards creating ocean turbines in the Pacific. Wave power can spin magnets (like all turbines) to create electricity directly (which requires a netwotk of cables for transmission) or it can be used for electrolysis of seawater to create hydrogen gas, it the US can ever get the hydrogen fuel cell to be practical. Wave power devices extract energy directly from surface waves or from pressure fluctuations below the surface. Renewable energy analysts believe there is enough energy in the ocean waves to provide up to 2 terawatts of electricity. (A terawatt is equal to a trillion watts.) Offshore systems are situated in deep water, typically of more than 40 meters (131 feet). Sophisticated mechanismsÂlike the Salter DuckÂuse the bobbing motion of the waves to power a pump that creates electricity. Other offshore devices use hoses connected to floats that ride the waves. The rise and fall of the float stretches and relaxes the hose, which pressurizes the water, which, in turn, rotates a turbine. Specially built seagoing vessels can also capture the energy of offshore waves. These floating platforms create electricity by funneling waves through internal turbines and then back into the sea. Built along shorelines, onshore wave power systems extract the energy in breaking waves. Onshore system technologies include the following: Oscillating water column The oscillating water column consists of a partially submerged concrete or steel structure that has an opening to the sea below the waterline. It encloses a column of air above a column of water. As waves enter the air column, they cause the water column to rise and fall. This alternately compresses and depressurizes the air column. As the wave retreats, the air is drawn back through the turbine as a result of the reduced air pressure on the ocean side of the turbine. Tapchan The tapchan, or tapered channel system, consists of a tapered channel, which feeds into a reservoir constructed on cliffs above sea level. The narrowing of the channel causes the waves to increase in height as they move toward the cliff face. The waves spill over the walls of the channel into the reservoir and the stored water is then fed through a turbine. Pendulor device The pendulor wave-power device consists of a rectangular box, which is open to the sea at one end. A flap is hinged over the opening and the action of the waves causes the flap to swing back and forth. The motion powers a hydraulic pump and a generator. Clearly, we can't keep burning carbon-based fuels.

While burning natural gas (i.e., methane, a greenhouse gas) does produce less carbon dioxide than burning coal, it's been argued that during the production and distribution of natural gas, more carbon emissions are released into the environment, overall, than coal. Needless to say, the validity of the claims behind the eco-friendliness of natural gas, hydraulic fracturing ("fracking"), and fossil fuels in general, remain highly controversial. That said, in more practical terms, residential energy rates for natural gas will typically be significantly lower than for electricity (however it's been generated). In major metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles, this cost difference is huge, making the choice of a gas dryer an easy decision (providing you have gas in your home, and are able to properly vent the dryer). For whatever reason, so-called, "Energy Guides" (the ubiquitous yellow stickers found on most appliances) aren't published for either gas or electric dryers, making direct comparions near-impossible. Modern front-loading washers are pretty miserly on both electricity and water usage, and the minute differences in efficiencies between brands should be negligible. This post was edited by studio460 on Tue, Jul 16, 13 at 6:45