Sounds like the biggest danger for the NJ shore will be rip currents. Some fool always goes out in them and gets caught, not knowing how to swim out. Hopefully that person(s)will be rescued before they drown.

Last year I was in Cape Cod for a hurricane. Just turned out to be a lot of wind and rain, but someone did get pulled out by a rip and drowned. Very sad.

Myrtle Beach has no swim orders going and flood warnings but further up the coast they may get hit. No signs of anyone boarding up windows or evacs here.

Stay safe and then watch out for Fiona, right behind Earl.

DD and I were at the Jersey Shore the last two days. The waves were already crashing hard. Bathers were only allowed in up to their knees and they were still being wiped out onto the sand!

Stay safe everyone!
Dale

We are about 100 miles West of the Outer Banks coast and we are under a hurricane watch! The models are still projecting Earl to skirt the coast about 100-200 miles out, it all depends on the system from the West! Living on the Outer Banks for 8 years we learned very early what needs to be done in a hurricane, you can't take anything for granted especially dealing with Mother Nature!
Hang on folks, it may be a bumpy ride!
Gina

Stay safe y'all!! Hurricanes are no fun. You don't have to be in the direct path of the eye to get a lot of high winds and rain which can be very dangerous and damaging.

Well, I'm reluctant to mention what's happening here. I appreciate the well wishes & would like to extend our similar wishes to all those also in this storm's path. I know magothyrivergirl is south of me plus Jim & Lori east of us.

Anyway, here's where we are now...

As of the NHC's 11:00 a.m. update the official forecast track is inside our traditional coastal storm benchmark of 40N 70W. But, just by a bit. Still, we'd feel better if the track would move clearly outside those coordinates.

I'm hearing rumors that the front moving across the US may actually move Earl substantially east after nearing the Carolina coast but nothing official to confirm. So, it's probably wishful thinking.

Of concern, nobody seems to have a clue about surge. I know the NHC is skittish after Katrina & Ike but, gosh, they're leaving us high & dry up here (well, I HOPE it's 'high & dry'!). Seriously, even our local emergency mgt. is clueless. The NHC is giving the entire eastern seaboard about a 10% chance of a 3' surge. Really? Gosh, that would be wonderful. Wonder where they have decided all that water being pushed across a 1,500 mile fetch is going? (sigh) It's easy to check buoys. So, far, I've seen 25' to 50' waves well ahead of the outer bands. Hello, NHC...can you hear us? Where, oh where, is that water going, NHC? Please tell us...soon.

Mystic Seaport (the museum) has activated their emergency procedures. They've got 500+ boats to secure & over 2M artifacts to protect. Several of the boats are designated as national historic landmarks.

We always take coastal storms seriously. Our prep work will be completed by tonight including loading the car. We'd rather prepare a dozen times needlessly than not do it once when it was needed.

In 1991, H. Bob's (similar to H. Carol, 1954) western portion of the eyewall brushed the eastern tip of Long Island. (note: we are located due north of the eastern tip of Long Island). The center of Bob made landfall near Newport, Rhode Island with winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. Even the submarines in Groton (5 miles to my west) left & road out the storm underwater. Rhode Island took a bad hit. Mystic was also seriously damaged (wind & surge).

Here, in Mystic, people are looking to prior storms for guidance on what to expect from Earl since the NHC is not telling us much of anything useful. Hence, my discussion of H. Bob.

/tricia (BTW, TD #9 has just formed behind TS Fiona)

I am trying to figure out why weather.com predicts no rain at all for my area in southeastern PA. We're not on the coast but hurricanes that pass near it always bring us lots of rain and often damaging winds.

and I am trying to arrange my plans on just when and how strong that "system from the west" will be.
We had almost 3 inches of rain last night and more to come tonight...on saturated ground!

CC I had the same feelings about our local forecast until they posted the hurricane watch this morning and we still may get a direct hit from it!

Nope, the forecast for rain tomorrow has been changed. No rain predicted in Philadelphia. I have a friend on vacation on Block Island. Looks like he may have a few windy rainy days.

In 2004, three hurricanes hit my area by entering the gulf and cutting across the peninsula. None of the three gave us rain, although the eye of two storms moved directly over us. I guess hurricanes can do as they wish.

I finally got a surge answer & it's positive, very positive.

"Wind directions will favor NE-N then NW with the storm staying offshore so not much of a storm
surge is expected with this storm."

I particpated on the live chat on weather.com. Very helpful. Why could they not have mentioned that on air? Never mind, I already know the answer.

/t

Yikes ! its now at cat 4 !!!

Tricia I hope that your community, and all the communities along the coast, can get things battened down safely!

I am so worried about Nova Scotia...looks like a serious direct hit. I saw for myself what the last hurricane to hit Halifax did and id was pure devastation.

Stay safe ...

Sharon, pounding surf & wind can do such damage. Hopefully, Nova Scotia will not fair too badly. We'll keep them in our thoughts/prayers.

It's sorta crazy. Last week, we had a 3-day Nor'easter. This week a hurricane. At least it's interesting.

/t

Okay, I here to see if Peppi has checked in! She and Augie are headed to Myrtle Beach. Crud.

Peppi just called, they are safe and sound. She took Augie to the outlet mall (she didn't say if he was kicking & screaming) so I guess they are enjoying the trip in spite of the weather.

Crossing finger here on Long Island im pretty close to the water...time will tell....bought some supplies today...we will see!!!

I have a summer home just a stone's throw from Tricia, and I am crossing my fingers for a dodge. I did just receive an email from our harbormaster informing us to consider hauling boats...hopefully, it won't be necessary. But hey, you do what you gotta do, it is the price one pays for living on the water.
curiously Tricia, was your weather really that bad last week? We had 5 days of rain, wind and clouds, but I wouldn't call it a nor'easter. A few downed branches, but not much more. I guess being 30 miles south of Mystic made all the difference.

We live on the outer Cape (Cod). Nature throws storms at us and we deal with them. But I don't think our weather is nearly as bad as the storms they experience in Michigan.

We did keep the fish we caught from our boat today, though, and ate it for dinner.

seagrass

Seagrass, that's absoutely not true. Michigan is a paradise and I've said that many times, about 3 miles south of heaven. It's been sunny and in the 80s for 3 weeks now, without so much as a drop of rain or a storm cloud.

It's been made abundantly clear to me through many prior posts that your area has the worst weather in the world, absolutely horrendous weather year round, including a 3 day Nor'easter just last week that didn't even make the Weather Service notice because it's so common. Those few hardy souls who are strong enough to live there are starving because the food is more expensive than anywhere else on earth. That is probably why so many people fish. The few who haven't already starved rely on the tourists who are also more numerous and more rude than anywhere else on earth. No, I couldn't possibly live there, I don't understand how anyone could be hardy enough to survive.

Hurricane Earl is a true danger, unlike a storm that MIGHT be forming and MAYBE could come your way and POSSIBLY could become severe. I truly hope it spares everyone in its path.

Elery was at Folly Beach in 1989 when Hurricane Hugo hit. He was told he should evacuate and decided not to. He said there was lots of wind and a lot of rain and that the waves got to be about 12 feet tall. Lots of wind and lots of rain can cause a lot of danger. By the time he thought that maybe he should leave, it wasn't possible, so he stayed.

I think I'd have gone when they urged evacuation...

So, stay safe everyone, I'll be hoping for a change of course for Earl.

Annie

Looks like it could be really serious along the East Coast over the next couple of days. Please be careful and if there is an evacuation then definitely find a safer place! The stuff can be replaced, people can't.

Batten the hatches and my thoughts are with everyone who is in the path of Earl.

Alexa

My friend's kid just started at Johns Hopkins...how will they fare? (Baltimore)

The forecast this morning is for it dwindle to a cat. 1 by the time it gets past the outter banks. Baltimore will get a lot of rain and a good blow but it won't be flooded.

Not the forecast I'm seeing Linda.

It may be that the east coast of the States misses a direct hit but Atlantic Canada is going to take a direct hit as a Cat 2. At least as of today's forecasts.

A Cat 2 will be devastating to the small fishing communities, flooding from the surges from the Bay of Fundy are a serious worry too.

The people of Atlantic Canada are in my thoughts as they make their preparations.

All depends on what channel you watch....I just saw NBC and they said what you said too....
Public TV perhaps is either more or less on the money....time will tell!

I'm also seeing both. I think the bottom line is that no one knows what Mother Nature does or will do, so it's best to stay safe, assume the worst and then be happy when/if it doesn't happen.

I'm still hoping for a sudden change in path for Earl. Stay safe and if orders are given to leave, then go. All things can be replaced, lives cannot.

Annie

Based on the latest weather update I just got, Earl is going to be bad news no matter how you slice it. It's currently still a cat 4 and although it might weaken a bit as it moves north, it's going to affect the entire east coast from North Carolina up to Canada.

At this point, with their ability to predict these things, I would say that there's almost no chance of the east coast avoiding this. Best thing is to get ready for it. I hope everyone is doing what they need to do to stay safe.

We always "hunker down" but we live in a place that is never asked to evacuate. If we were told to or even suggested to, we'd be outa there. And now's the time to go if you need to. It's scheduled to create at least tropical storm conditions in North Carolina and the northeast tonight, and head up to Canada within the next 48 hours.

Here's the 11:00 a.m. update...

"000
WTNT42 KNHC 021456
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT
EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE
THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN
FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS
IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA"

Note: Tidal surge is more than wind. Low pressure actually allows the water level to rise by not having as much downward pressure.

H. Earl is a large storm & its effects will be felt well outside the eyewall. TS winds extend 200 miles from the center. I don't think anybody's positive how each bay, harbor, cove, and/or river is going to react to Earl's influence.

For now, if I was in Baltimore I would pay attention to the flood information provided. Baltimore, BTW, is at approx. 39N 76 W for the above forecast reference.

I got a phone call this morning from Stonington's Human Resources. I'm considered a medical evacuation & they were checking to see if we needed assistance & to make sure we were ready. We are. No decisions yet, however.

/tricia

Here is a link that might be useful: Baltimore Coastal Flooding Potential

Jessy, Baltimore is inland enough to miss the brunt of this. He'll be fine. Anyway, if he's smart enough to get into Johns Hopkins, he's smart enough to get through a hurricane!

jojoco,

It's been so tempting to ignore your post. But, darn it, it makes it sound like there was not a Nor'easter last week. Like somehow because YOUR perception is different that makes it not so. It infers that I'm either exaggerating or worse...down right lying.

So, here's somebody besides me that is of the impression we had a Nor'easter last week. And, I do think it's interesting weather to have a Nor'easter & a hurricane back to back.

/tricia

Here is a link that might be useful: August 2010 Nor'easter

(Thanks Pam! BTW...its a 'she')

Here in Eastern NC, the wind is picking up and we are starting to have intermittent shower bands! It's going to be a very long night, I'm afraid!

All in Earl's path, you are in my thoughts and prayers. We are seasoned in hurricane preparedness, but as I said before, you can not take anything for granted when dealing with Mother Nature!
Stay Safe!
OBXgina

I'll probably be up all night too....worrying about everyone!
I've had the Weather Channel on all day.

Stay safe everyone!!!!!!

Nancy

Yep - I think everyone in the storm path should post updates letting us all know you are safe, or if you can't get internet access (no power or whatever) then call someone so they can post for you! This could be really ugly.....

Alexa

Tricia,
Not saying you didn't have a nor'easter, just saying what we experienced 30 miles south wasn't so bad. We had about 5 days of high tides, on again off again rain and stronger than usual winds. I live in a beach community, but nobody hauled their boats and only a few minor branches came down. Perhaps it is because we are buffered by the sound. As they say so often on these forums, your mileage may vary. I am glad you are safe.
Jo

I've been worrying about all of you East Coasters, both the U.S. and Canada, all day. On the evening news, they showed what looked to be the outer banks already getting hit, but they said it wouldn't be arriving there for hours. I guess it's because Earl is so freaking big that it's outer edges are already hitting before it's officially there. Please take every precaution, and then some!

Sally

Stay safe everyone! I have loved ones in NC and I'm worried about them and you all! Please keep us posted!

Earl has blown passed quickly and basically was a non-event! We had a little wind and some much needed rain, but thats about it! We are keeping an eye on the 2 other storms out in the Atlantic. I hope everyone who is expecting Earl gets away as lucky as we did!
Stay safe!
obxgina

We aren't even getting rain here in Philly! They changed the forecast from "showers" to "mostly cloudy". Not even a lick of a breeze right now. Not that I hope anyone get slammed by this, but I was really hoping to go one day without watering the tomatoes.

Alexa

Been getting steady rain bands for 3-4 hours. Forecast says whatever wind we get will not be until tonight. Nothing really damaging. We just passed high tide. The next two tide cycles are still forecasted to be a couple feet above mean. No big deal. DH says it feels weird outside...temp is 78 & dewpoints have been 73-76 the past few hours. Interesting note - that 76 dew point is the highest I've got in my garden journal.

We need the rain & there's been enough time between bands for the heavy downpours to soak into the soil.

/tricia

I would have welcomed a few drops of rain, but all we got were clouds. My niece in the southernmost part of NC said the sun shone all day.

Just heard on TWC that a tree's down on the tracks in New Haven, CT so Amtrak is down between Boston & NYC. I was wondering why we've not heard any trains!! Don't know if the heavy downpours loosened it or if they caught a wind gust. Unfortunate place for it to fall. Lots of people heading to NE from NYC for the long weekend.

Pressure here is at 29.51 and falling. That's not very impressive. Rain bands have filled in & we're getting pretty much steady rain now.

/t

the sirens went off a few minutes ago, but the worst will pass us by, here.

Are you disappointed Triciac? Could be a lot worse! People who can't get out for a long week end? Small price to pay!

Glad to hear it was basically a non-event.
Jo

Just heard it's been down graded to a tropical storm.
Why don't they get that tree off the tracks?
around here, a tree blocks a road and it's gone in an hour..
Glad there seems to have been very little damage along the route...
Linda C

I'm also glad that Earl decided to take that path further away from the coast, as I was hoping for.

Here that tree would be gone too, Linda, but we're talking about Amtrak. They may not have crews or tools immediately available and they'll send their own crews, not hire an emergency crew, and everything just takes a LOT of time.

Annie

"Hurricane Earl is a true danger, unlike a storm that MIGHT be forming and MAYBE could come your way and POSSIBLY could become severe."

Your prescience is duly noted.

I should also add that the superlatives you attibuted to occupants of this region did not come from me.

seagrass

Seagrass, I know they did not come from you.

Annie

Fallen Trees:
I understood that there were many high voltage lines involved.
They had to be carefull. Guess they use crews that are experienced, in this situation ?

I thought NBC owned the Weather Channel ?
Lou