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hmhausman

Lychee Chill Requirements

hmhausman
14 years ago

I've been growing lychees here in So. FL since 1991, when I received two trees as a wedding gift. Those trees, and the ones I have added since, have fruited for most of the last 14 years. Some years skipped fruiting in some varieites and crops have definitely varied in size. However, I never particiapted in a forum or blog before and I never recorded the details of the best (and worst) crop years. In general, I have always been of the understanding that lychees do require a certain amount of chill hours to bloom. Never has this been more obvious than the last month or so where many of you are proudly showing off (and rightfully so....even though it causes some admitted jealousy on my part) lots of lychee blooms. Mean while, here in So. FL., warm temps have gotten me concerned about this year's lychee crop. Since some of you have more experience in logging these things and being much more aware of temperature conditions, I was wondering if any of you have formulated or estimated just how much chilling is required to set the blooming cycle off. I know there is lots of info out there regarding many temperate fruiting trees and plants but I haven't seen too much on lychees. Your thoughts?

What has your experience been with regard to the necessary temperature drops and over what period of time before you encountered bloom spikes. Thanks.

Harry

Comments (59)

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    I may do just that. I think Bill was a classmate of mine years ago when I took the sub-tropical fruit culture class at the college.

  • puglvr1
    14 years ago

    Harry, I live in Highlands county so I am almost 3 hours north of you. I looked at my pictures from last year, my one lychee tree(sweet cliff?) started blooming around Jan 2nd. I have pictures 10 days later that looked like this.
    {{gwi:1335051}}

    Right now on that same tree I have all new growths...covered with them...NO blooms!

    Last year on my Sweetheart Lychee the blooms were a little later...second week of Jan. I barely saw the beginning of blooms only to be killed by the killer freeze a week or two later that year!

    I have pics of my sweetheart blooms in January 26, 08. Never got to taste them,...got about pea size and fell off. I'm hoping this year this one will bloom for me.
    Sweetheart blooms taken Jan. 26 2008. I believe that year was NOT a cold fall either?
    {{gwi:1335969}}

    Like you Harry, we have had a VERY warm fall...these last two days being the exception. I've given up on my Sweet Cliff...but haven't thrown out the towel for the Sweetheart yet...ther's still hope?

    I second what LL said about Bill from lycheesonline. I've spoken to him at least 4 or 5 times. He is a super nice guy and very helpful!

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  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Thanks for all the responses. I think I went into " no lychees this year" panic a bit too soon.

    Nancy: I am having leaf flushes here and there, and a few have flushed out over the whole tree, but in general, I think there are sufficient branches that haven't pushed out that still have the potential for bloom. Thanks for the pictures and the dates.....I knew you guys would be better able to put some date perspective on this subject.

    Gerry: If 68 is the threshhold then we are still in the running for a crop. Thanks for the info.

    Pepperot: Thanks for your research. I had never contemplated the issue as being the root/terminal bud temperature variance. I guess my ice packing method with stone fruit and apple would have been better if I sprayed the branches with ice water.

  • lycheeluva
    14 years ago

    I will shoot bill an email and see what he thinks

  • mikesid
    14 years ago

    Thanks for the responses... My Brewster started putting out growth and appears to be vegetative but am still hoping to get some blooms... Just waiting on the Hak Ip and Emperor now.....anybody in zone 10 or 10b please post when you get your first lychee flower panicles....
    Thanks, Mike

  • bradfl
    14 years ago

    This is my first year with Lychees -- so I am not yet much of an expert. (It is a Sweetheart.)

    I am on the water -- and the gulf waters are still warm

    But.

    I got a great flush last week -- all over the tree. Three nights ago we had a chilly blast, down into the 60's. The branches facing north got the brunt of the winds -- and the tips of a lot of the new leaves just blackened up. I soaked the ground under the tree, thinking that the tips may just have dried out from the wind -- since there was no freeze. Last night it went down into the mid-50's and no further deterioration occurred.

    I expect that the blooms will not come until January, but I will be watching it closely. No bumps are showing.

    This is also my first full winter with a Carrie mango -- and it looks just fine. It was in bloom last winter when I had it installed -- and I had to cover it, since it had come from inside a greenhouse. Fruits set OK.

    Global warming -- or global cooling? It is mystifying.

    (o_O)

  • Andrew Scott
    14 years ago

    Brad,
    I had to comment on what you were saying about global warming. This Christmas for me will be green. Normally that does not happen, even though winter solstice was December 21. We are supposed to hit 40 degree mark for Christmas day. I bet there will be some record highs set that day! I talked to a family member in Brandon. She said they have had some unusually cool weather all ready. Its like nature going loco! I don't mind a few warmer days for the beginning of winter, I know the brutal cold is right around the corner. BTW- I am getting lots of flushes now on my Cogshall. The Lancetilla is just strarting but I know the hard pruning I did was a short setback. I want to say the buds began to swell about three weeks after I cut it. I actually cut the whole tree almost in half if not a little more. Well I hope your winters are mild and nice, not like the ones we have here! Feet and feet off that cold nasty stuff!
    Andrew
    Andrew

  • puglvr1
    14 years ago

    Hi Brad, on newly planted lychee trees(usually the first year or so) the new growth flushes are very sensitive to windy conditions can do some light to severe damages to newly forming leaves. I attached a pic below of my set up that I used while the tree was newly planted. I left mine up for about a year and a half. I will tell you it helped a LOT! My tree almost tripled in size with the protection.

    As a matter of fact lycheesonline recommends you do this also...I attached a link below. Its listed as their #1 thing to do...protect from wind. http://lycheesonline.comhealthylycheetrees.cfmcolor>;

    Here is a link that might be useful: 8 Essential Factors for Growing Healthy Lychee Trees

  • jsvand5
    14 years ago

    Harry, I am in Ocala which is about 30 miles south of Gainesville. I have some bloom flushes just now starting. I have had quite a bit of chill hours already. I think the early cold probably makes my trees start pushing spikes a couple weeks ahead of you.

    Have you tried any of the peaches developed by UF? They should definitely grow well for you. I have even heard of them growing well on islands in the Caribbean. They need less than 150 chill hours and some believe they may not really need much of any at all. I am growing tropic snow, tropic beauty, and FL prince and they are all doing great.

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    Harry, what varieties of lychee are you currently growing that fruit for you? the UFL table in the link below shows only Brewster and Mauritius as regular bearing habits with Hak Ip being somewhat regular, but your experience with them sounds more promising to me.

    i have only tried Mauritius and Brewster, the trees at Spykes Groves are simply amazing in bloom.

    i currently have a 5 foot Sweetheart, i bought never tasting the fruit. i would like to get another variety but something different then Mauritius and Brewster, the two common varieties. i would also like to get a variety that varies in flavor to Sweetheart.

    I have seen that Pine Isl is airlayering alot of exotic lychee varieties. some of the names in the Purdue link below sound familiar. i wouldnt be surprised if next year there are alot of new varieties of lychees as well as mangos available, they increased the number of varieties recently.

    are you growing a sweetheart? i was interested in how large the tree will eventually get.

    this season i want to try some exotic varieties before i decide which tree to buy. Kwai Iuk definitely sounds interesting.

    Purdue lychee page

    Here is a link that might be useful: UFL lychee page

  • bradfl
    14 years ago

    andrew:

    Interesting subject. But, I am old -- and remember too well the '70's -- when Chicken Little was telling everyone to stock up on long underwear because of "Global cooling."

    and pug~

    I wish that I had listened to my neighbor's gardener when he shook his head at my newly planted tree and said "The wind."

    What did you use for fabric -- and how long did you leave it up? I think I'll put a screen up on the North side of my tree -- and hope for the best.

    Be well

    (o_O)

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    there are many cyclical factors that contribute to our climate changing, el Nino, La Nina, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. these and other observed phenomenon do not negate the theory of man made climate change.

    i tried to bite my tongue before Andrew replied, but dont you feel awkward interjecting your political opinions in a light hearted group about gardening? especially when those opinion dismiss the overwhelming consensus of the Scientific community?

    i know i certainly would.

  • puglvr1
    14 years ago

    Hey Brad...I used electrical conduit pipes from HD or Lowe's
    sells them for the posts. I'm sure you can also use wood posts or PVC. I bought burlap from one of the big box stores? I also used some type of lightweight shade cloth on my Sweetheart lychee, I believe I got that one from WM.

    Good luck!

  • bradfl
    14 years ago

    Awkward -- NO

    Confused -- YES

    Exactly what is Political about Global warming -- or global cooling? It is mystifying.?

    "Overwhelmimg consensus," WOW

    Anyhow, Maggie Thatcher taught me, "Consensus is the abdication of authority."

    Done. I am apolitical -- just a retired Landscape Architect gone to gardening.

    pug~

    I spoke to another gardener who opined that "over-watering" would do the same trick. So, I tried that immediately -- before I can get to construct a screen.

    But, many thanks for your information and photo.

    (o_O)

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    for someone so apolitical you are quick to type the words of political idealogue.

    the link below provides numerous sources to the fact that the overwhelming Scientific consensus agrees climate change is to some degree man made.

    Here is a link that might be useful: Climate change consensus

  • bradfl
    14 years ago

    Done. I am apolitical -- just a retired Landscape Architect gone to gardening.

    Be well

    (o_O)

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    John:
    Of course you should have expected that I would have tried to grow all of the low chill fruits you mention. They have all gone by the wayside over the years with a few fruits setting every couple of years on the peaches and nectarines. Even though some of the fruits supposedly need only 100-150 hours of chill......we couldn't muster enough hours most years to get any meaningful fruit set. I think the only thing I still have are Hood Pears...which have survived and bloom periodically but have never set a fruit. The info that came with the trees said they needed a pollinator untl the tree got some size. I bought one, but it died. Now I have two Hood trees and am still awaitng fruit or even some growth. The trees are barely larger than they were when I planted them some 12 years ago. BTW, the few times that I got fruit on the Peaches,Plums, Nectarines and Apple....I would say the nectarine and peach were excellent....definitley worth growing......the plum and apple...not so much.

    Re: your lychee blooms.....you guys have had significantly more cooling than we have had. Several fronts stalled between you and us and had us sweltering while you were nice and cool. But, we have had some cooling now so I am hopeful we will get blooms in january.

    Sour Diesel:
    When I was first introduced to lychees, I set about trying to get as many cultivars as I could...especially to
    extend the all too short season. I have had more varieties than I am presently growing. The current collection includes Brewster, Mauritius, Hak Ip, Garnet, Bosworth 3 (Kwai Mai Pink), Bosworth, Emperor, Emperor seedling,
    Kaimana, Ohia, Ohia Red, Farwell Farm, Peerless, Seymour, Bengal, Early Large Red, Pink Ohia, and Sweetheart. Of these, Kaimana and Garnet are my favorites. I have tried to grow Hanging Green, No Mai Tze, Sweet Cliff, and some Brewster seedlings. All have perished for one reason or another. I have never tasted Bosworth, Pink Ohia, Red Ohia, Seymour, the Emperor Seedling or Sweetheart as they haven't ever fruited at my house. Well, Sweetheart finally put three fruits this past year after both of my trees flowered for the first time. The birds got the fruit before I could.

    Harry

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    how long have you had Kaimana for and how is its production compared to Brewster?

    P Island rates its flavor 5 but states it is an inconsistent producer. i wonder if thats because of the limestone soil in some places.

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    For me, the flavor of Kaimana is a definite 5 (might even be a 6). As far as production, on my mucky organic soil it produces at least as well as Brewster. The fruits are larger and more meaty than Brewster. Of note is the fact that the several times that I had been to Bill Whitman's place I can tell you that he had three lychee trees in his collection. Of course you know he searched for, procured and grew the most rare of the rare and the best of the best. The three cultivars he grew were Emperor, Bosworth 3 (Kwai Mai Pink) and Kaimana. Just for the record.

  • ronald123
    14 years ago

    Wow Harry, that's an impressive amount of lychee varieties. I think I have only thried about six varieties, most when visiting Florida. In Jamaica there is one main variety ( mauritous I think) and a few others.
    Ronald

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Ronald: Yes, like most of my fruit endeavors....I got a bit carried away. But then after tasting fresh lychees, getting them to fruit in my yard and then realizing just how short the season was, I became consumed with trying to find a way to extend the season. I am still on that quest.

    Harry

  • lycheeluva
    14 years ago

    Harry- when does the typical lychee season start and end for you

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Gerry:
    I wish I had kept records of the actual fruiting season.....I hate to be imprecise. I can only say that it never begins before mid May and it goes thru at least mid July. When I had my large fruiting Emperor tree, it was always the last to mature and I think it sometimes made it to August. But I am not for sure on that.....plus, the darned tree up and died on me. I have replanted but it will be years before I have more Emperors.

    Harry

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    what would make a fruiting lychee tree in the ground suddenly die like that? thats devastating.

    Bill Whitmans property is in Bal Harbor right? i read he successfully fruited Mangosteen and Rambutan on his property with a little help from protection and the warmer air currents. pretty amazing. i have a sugar apple named after him, Whitman purple.

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Sour Diesel:
    That's a very good question. We did have standing water for a few days, but that is nothing unusual during rainy season. The tree stood up beautifully to Hurricane Wilma. It barely lost a few leaves and no branches were lost. I have to assume there was some sort of fungal or bacterial infection of the roots. The heavy crop on the tree may have weakened its immune system. The leaves and fruit never dropped. The leaves wilted, turned brown and just hung there. I was in mourning for weeks. Now, the main frame of the tree is all that remains after I cut all the small branches off and I am using it as a trellis for one of my dragon fruits.

    Harry

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Sour Diesel:

    Yes, Bill Whitman lived in Bal Harbor. He definitely fruited mangosteen...but I never heard that he fruited rambutan. His property was about an acre, I think, with half an acre being solely planted out with rare trees. I toured his property twice when I was taking the Sub-Tropical Fruit Class at Broward Community College. This was back in the mid-90's. He used wind screens and mini-shading structures to protect many of his trees. His property was right along the bay and was regularly several degrees warmer than most other locations in Dade County. Very interesting guy.....his family owned the land where the Bal Harbour Shops are located. I wouldn't mind that kind of tenant on my commercial property (if I had any that is). Anyway, the fruit tree growing world lost a really special man when Bill died. He was a gentlemen and always very generous with his time and knowledge.

    Harry

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    Bill is credited with introducing about 80 varieties of tropical fruit into Florida from his yard, amazing.

    i always wondered what exotic fruit he was holding in this picture, they look like huge rambutan, the stem looks like an artocarpus.

    {{gwi:1335971}}

  • murahilin
    14 years ago

    They are Durio dulcis from Borneo.

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    i thought it was an artocarpus

    ever try one?
    it looks extraterrestrial

    do you know if he grew one on his property as well? RFVC has one on their list

  • pepperot
    14 years ago

    And does anyone know if he grew regular common durian?

  • lycheeluva
    14 years ago

    he did but he was unable to get it to fruit

  • murahilin
    14 years ago

    sour_diesel,
    I havent tried the D dulcis. If it tastes anything similar to the regular durian I do not think I would ever want to try it either. I do not think he grew the D. dulcis at his property though.

    Harry,
    Whitman was able to fruit the rambutan at his property. I am not sure if he was able to get all of his varieties to fruit though. Do you know if its possible to get seed or budwood from his property still? Does his family allow it?

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Murahilin:
    I don't know what the present status is of the Whitman property. I fear that the property may be sold or on sale and probably not to someone who cares about the horticultural aspects of the property. I obviously don't know his widow personally. However, I heard from folks that hung around them in Bill's later years that she might be on the anxious side to sell the property when Bill died.

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    Andrew, the smallest cultivar i have seen is ice cream, i have seen full grown trees top out at about 8 feet, even smaller than Julie. the sizes Pine Island lists arent full grown size for the cultivars, they are ideal heights for the trees to be maintained at because they are bushy and compact instead of vigorous and upright like larger varieties.

    one of my favorite coffee table books i linked below has a picture of a street in India lined with mango trees 100+ foot tall. it states that the maximum height is 148 feet. so Mangos can range from 10 foot, what an ice cream usually tops out at, to 148 feet tall, some of the oldest mango trees in India. amazing what 4000 years of human cultivation can accomplish.

    Here is a link that might be useful: a pocket guide to trees

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Ok, so I hopefully freaked out prematurely about a "no lychee bloom year". The folks at lychees online say that it is an average temperature of 68 F that begins the process of lychee bloom. I still don't know for how long that is required or what the effect is of a non-sustained cooling period (as in average daily temps in the high 70's for a week or so). I also don't know what effect a substantially lower average daily temp has on the process. Notwithstanding these factors, I went back and looked at average daily temps at a local weather station near my house. The numbers for the months of November and December are as follows (so far):

    November Days below 68 F average: 12th, 13th, 14th, 18th, 27th, 28th and 29th

    December Days below 68 F average: 6th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, and 26th

    So, thus far we have had 7 days in each month where the average temp was below 68F. So far, no blooms. This will be the first year that I have documented this chill issue. Hopefully, this will alleviate some amount of "no lychee" anxiety in years to come.

  • puglvr1
    14 years ago

    Harry, I don't understand it either, because if that was the case I just checked my lows for the month of Nov and Dec up to yesterdays date...I only had "one" night that I was above 68° for the month of Nov. and all of Dec. to date has all been 68° or below. Yet my sweet Cliff did NOT set blooms, it is in Full growth flush now. So I am very confused,lol...For me I've had 54 nights of temps 68° or below bet. Nov and Dec. the coldest being 37° for two nights.

    My Sweetheart is starting something but its a little too small to tell what it is...growths or blooms? Maybe another week or two I should be able to tell. I will update as soon as I can tell.

  • Andrew Scott
    14 years ago

    SourDiesel,
    Thanks for the info but I had read that info before and I had that question on a diffrent post. LOL! I commented on the size of Harry's cogshall and I had mentioned that I did see on my tag that it can grow to 25 feet, but thanks anyways.
    Andrew

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Nancy....thanks for posting your confusion. I think there is obviously more to it than average daily temp below 68F that is if you are working on 50 plus days of those temps without blooms. Looks like I'm going to have to go back to last year's November and December to see what kind of temps we had then....since last year's crop was the best in years. Will keep you posted. If any of you northern growers are bored and you know until what date you had your blooming lychee trees out unprotected, you can go to Weather Underground and put in your zip code, find a weather station near you and get archives for this fall's temps where you are to see what the average daily temps caused your lychees to flower and over what time period. Thanks in advance to anyone bored and so inclined.

    Harry

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Actually, if anyone has the info available, with your zip code, the approximate date your tree went indoors, I can do the search and temp history myself. Of course, I would need to know two more things....one, the date of blooming onset and the chill conditions (approx. temps.) encountered by your trees while inside. This sounds like a good science project for my kids. Thanks.

    Harry

  • lycheeluva
    14 years ago

    alas i can be of no help as my indoor temps are still below 60 and the temperature range in NY in oct and mov is so massive, there is no way of knowing which temps brought on the bloom

  • dr_james
    14 years ago

    Sour Diesel,
    You need to relax a bit...you practically jumped down Bradfl's throat and accused him of a political post; here's a newsflash: you can state an opinion and it DOES NOT have to be political. Also, you then give a Wikipedia link to support your theory of global consensus? LOL. That is junk-science at its finest. Bradfl has let you off the hook, but I just can't resist...
    Plus, according to your post...scientific consensus? Give me a break...science attempts to prove hypotheses...nothing more. So, there is a consensus on theories? Wow.
    To what consensus are you referring to? One doesn't exist (see below). Luckily for you I have a friend who mindlessly beats the drum of Global Warming, so I have all of these links saved in my mail folder so they are readily available for posts like yours. Plus, after the shameful public outing of the bogus data that is being used to push an economic agenda, I'm surprised that anyone would publicly support an obviously fraudulent cause:
    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/

    NASA temperature data flawed:
    http://www.thestar.com/article/246027

    Polar ice models incorrect (among other fun "inconvenient" facts:
    http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=332289

    Plus, the MAJORITY of temperature sensors in use in the U.S. are incorrectly placed (and thus give false, higher readings):
    http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/22203/Meteorologist_Documents_Warming_Bias_in_US_Temperature_Stations.html
    -FYI, I can link MANY articles that show the majority of temperature sensors in our country are incorrectly placed. And what are the global warming arguments based on? Temperature readings of course.

    http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/03/climate-science-gore-intelligent-technology-sutton.html

    http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517035,00.html
    -Fox picked this up from an Australian news co.
    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/24/hiding-evidence-of-global-cooling/

    Plus, approx. 31,000 scientists (incl. over 9,000 PhD's have signed a petition that there is NO CONSENSUS that human activity causes global warming:
    http://www.petitionproject.org/

  • sour_diesel
    14 years ago

    this is becoming nauseating.

    i must say it is interesting you created your profile today "Dr."

    there most certainly is a consensus of Global Warming. Over 97% of actively publishing climate scientists agree that global warming is primarily caused by human activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation. that is taken directly from Wikipedia which sources these statistics extensively.

    if you want to have faith in politicians profiting off of resisting environmental regulations, pseudo-Science collectivist and lobbyists that is fine, I personally am a man of Science.

    please keep your conjecture, FOX NEWS oped journalism and everything else non fruit related in off topic, i really dont care about your conjecture.

    Here is a link that might be useful: Climate Change Consensus, WIKIPEDIA

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Gerry...your temps bring up another issue. I was always told that mango pollen would not function properly below 60 F......if you have always been below 60.....I will be interested to see how that affects mango fruit set. My walk around the yard yesterday revealed that although there has been lots of early bloom this year.......other than Martinez and Edward...I see very little fruit set so far. I am not sure if this is temperature or other issues. We shall see.

    Harry

  • lycheeluva
    14 years ago

    Harry- do you mean mangoes cannot set blooms below 60 or that can set blooms below 60 but the pollen will not work at temps below 60.
    I only currently have one mango tree- a fairchild, and so far it has only bloomed in the spring when temps are above 60.
    If mangoes need temps above 60 degrees to set blooms, i will turn up the heat in my garage. please advise.

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Gerry:
    The trees will bloom with colder temps....but the pollen will not fertilize (supposedly) if the temos are under 60F. I am not sure if there is some variability amongst variety or not. To be safe, I would warm them above 60 if you want your pollen to pollinate.

    Harry

  • lycheeluva
    14 years ago

    good to know. now i just need to get some mango blooms!
    i assume this does not apply to lychee blooms as well

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    I have never heard that lychees have the same issue....hopefully they don't. You will soon know!

  • ronald123
    14 years ago

    Basically just keeping the lychee theme going and being a little bored, so here are some pictures from the last year.

    Tree below is a possible brewster seedling. Note the flushing from a small area, this is because the rest of the tree in the picture had been girdled.

    Tree that I got from a neighbor when I noticed it was fruiting in august years ago, I have yet to have it produce for me.

    section of small grove

  • hmhausman
    Original Author
    14 years ago

    Thanks for the pictures, Ronald. Many of my lychees look the same.....with the partial tree flushing and part not....but....I never girdled. I wonder if your tree would have flushed differently if you didn't girdle.

    Harry

  • ronald123
    14 years ago

    Almost definitely, there is always a noticable difference in the girdled and ungirdled limbs, as to whether they actually flower thats another story.
    you can actually see that it is more than just a flush, the tree is noticably taller on the flushing side, but the folowing year it all evens out as I usually do the other side.

    Here it is a real hit or miss with the lychees. Did I fertilize enough? Did I girdle at the right time? Are we having too much rain in October? Or like this year are we going to be too warm this winter for a good crop?