Is it really going to be a La Nina year?

12 years ago

The Farmer's Almanac and Noaa both have predicted the Front Range to have another La Nina year - dry with above average temps.

I'd been prepared to do some watering as the soil had dried out after our November storm. I don't need to now!

I hope everyone is keeping warm. Bundle up and bring on the hot chocolate!

Barb

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Comments (5)

mcfaroff
12 years ago
Barb, I heard la nina this winter too. But yahoo!! We got snow now. Gloria
digit
12 years ago
Your cold wake-up weather yesterday made a little national news!

North America is experiencing a positive Arctic Oscillation right now. NOAA explains it as tho' the atmosphere is like a bowl with air sloshing north and south. I like how the atmosphere is colored in shades of purple on their story about this (link below). It is sloshing south right now, holding out the storms from up here, in this corner of the world. This will continue for the next week and a half, I guess - then, we will see.

It is a La Nina winter but we will have to wait to see what that will mean with all this air sloshing going on . . .

Steve

Here is a link that might be useful: arctic oscillation
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Skybird - z5, Denver, Colorado
12 years ago
The page linked below (a pdf!) says that NOAA thinks we're gonna be in a "weak" La Nina (without the "diphthong," per Digit's recent post!) this year, but, IMO, not even God can predict the weather, so I will happily just wait to see what happens! When I saw that page on NOAA, I thought: Here's some good info about what's gonna happen this winter, and then, the more I read---or tried to read---the foggier and foggier my mind got! Most of that stuff is WAY more than I know anything about--or care to know anything about, and I just kept thinking that this was something Dan should be reading---and I'm sure he'd totally understand it all! Not I! (Tho I will admit I stopped trying after the first few pages!)

But---if you scroll all the way down to the last few pages, it, basically, says that we have "equal chances" for both temps and precip in December, and equal chances for temps with slightly above normal chances for precip for January and February. Took them a whole lot of pages to say that!

The local TV weather tonite said we've already had something like 20" more snow this year than last year, and that way works for me--I spent a whole day watering my front yard just a couple days before Christmas last year, so, ignoring all that stuff in the NOAA pdf, I'm thinkin' it's gonna be a pretty good year for us in terms of moisture, I'm hopin' we don't get TOO much cold for TOO many days---I still have a whole buncha bulbs to plant, and I've decided it's gonna be a pretty good winter!!! Good Winter by declaration! Works for me!!!

And in just TWO WEEKS the days will start getting longer again! Now that one is a FACT, regardless of what any of the Predictors say is gonna happen with the weather, and more daylight is really important to me---no matter what the temps are, or what is or is not Makin' Down outside!

It's gonna be a GOOD winter,
Skybird

P.S. Enough with the Sloshing, Digit! I still have considerable disequilibrium from my concussion, and SLOSHING is NOT a good thing to be thinkin' about! :-)

Here is a link that might be useful: December 2011 - February 2012 Outlook for the Denver Area and the Rest of Colorado
highalttransplant
12 years ago
I'm not even going to pretend I read all of that, Skybird, LOL! One thing that was interesting to me was that it showed my part of the state having a better chance at above average precipitation between now and Feb. than the front range, but so far, you guys have received all the snow. We've had some cold temps the past week, but not much moisture.

My middle child is still complaining about the lack of snowfall last Christmas, so I'm really hoping things pick up in the next couple of weeks.
elkwc
12 years ago
I'm like most of you. We are about to complete year 4 of a drought cycle. We have been in the dry doughnut hole even when areas around us got rain especially in 010. This year depending on what falls the next 2 weeks I will likely finish the year with around 6 inches of moisture. Had 9 in 08, 12 in 09, 9.8 in 010 and then this year. There is no subsoil moisture left here. Our average is 16 inches. So will need a few years or above average to raise us back up. I don't worry that much about something I have no control over. I may change varieties some and raise more plants that have shown they will take the heat and drought. And may cut back on tomatoes some from 100 plants back to 60-70 but overall I'm like any gardener and farmer. Do my planning and hope for a better year ahead. The hot, dry winds is what really hurt us. And we've had more wind than normal for this time of year up until the last few weeks. So not sure what that means. I used to look at the long range forecasts and plant off of them but found the Farmer's almanac is just as accurate as most forecasts over 30 days out. Jay

Is it really going to be a La Nina year?

Comments (5)

mcfaroff

digit

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