Strange indeed. We've already been to 88f and now they're predicting 41 for Friday. This is not usual for N La in May for sure. Up and down all month of April.

Sorry but posts like this are completely worthless unless your GW profile somehow gives a general impression of where in the world you are. If I discuss the local effect of climate on my garden, I at least always vaguely give an indication of where I am...east coast US zn 7, or whatever. Your name maybe implies you are somewhere in Europe, and I know they've had some rollercoaster weather there, with some gardens in the UK being 2-3 weeks behind normal.

sounds like last year.. here in MI ... and for all the bee-oching.. and complaining...

the drought and heatwave in july/august.. did the most damage ... or i should say.. the most killing...

where are you????

ken

I guess I don't understand. My profile looks just like yours does. I can only tell you live in the US as do I when I click on your name and page.
Ken, I am in the high plains 3000 feet of Kansas in the dry western part.

Right, sorry Ingeborg, I didn't mean to seem angry. My point was just that everyone doesn't remember where everyone else is. There is a way to add text to your description in the GW profile. But IF I post about local conditions, I make sure people will have some general idea where I am: "it's been a lousy spring here on the east coast", etc.

Ingeborg, that is what my weather is like every winter here in North Florida. I lost my entire peach crop this year and had damage to many plants as they were leafing out. Even native trees like Celtis and Carya had all of their new growth blackened by the freezes. We can have 2 weeks of 80s, followed by lows in the teens in February. That is brutal on new growth. Hang in there, they will recover though.

I see your few days warm, alternatinating with several days of cold and freezes (some hard), and raise you the possibility of snowflakes IN MAY IN ARKANSAS which has not happened in previous weather records.

Arktrees

These types of patterns are par for the course in North America though. It's the nature of the beast. Nowhere else in the world is so capricious in terms of temps well above freeze and below freezing. In China the Siberian High seems to result in a steady flow of cold air that gradually lessens in spring with high repeatability. Years ago someone found a webcam in Northern Japan with years of archives: the snow melted in almost the same week every year! Hong Kong is the coldest city for its latitude anywhere in the world w/respect to winter averages, supposedly, but again that reflects a steady flow of cool dry air, not our mix of warm fronts, cool fronts, gulf storms, etc. Its record low is slightly better than say, a similar location in Florida. Likewise once the monsoon pattern kicks up, it's pretty darn reliable over most of its range.

I have several plants that have perished for sure. They were young, but are already brown and brittle. The larch I have still have green on the branches but the needles are now gone. I have never had that happen before. Are these things pretty tough? We have set records this year in April for cold. We have had freezes in April many times but never as hard as what we have had this year. That has been the tough part of it.

"Hong Kong is the coldest city for its latitude anywhere in the world w/respect to winter averages, "

This is true, but it's a bad example of what I was pointing out. Hong Kong may well be cold because the cold air "keeps out truckin" out of Siberia, but what that seems to mean is that zn 10 in SW China can extend, at low elevation, well up to the city of Chongqing. Because temps. never vary much FROM that average, and the cold air is always moving instead of being able to build up. IIRC Robert Wagner, a Seattle area serious plant collector who used to post on cloudforest, pointed out that the HImalayas even help in this regard. They block/split the jet stream and keep it from moving around as much as it does over the US. They are just so much bigger even than the Rockies. To compare geographies, it would sorta be like Birmingham, Alabama, or Atlanta being zone 10a or 9b instead of 8a. They get a steady diet of cold, we get warm spells punctuated once or twice a winter by either very deep or very late freezes.

This post was edited by davidrt28 on Wed, May 1, 13 at 12:35

david,
No matter what you say, possible snow in MAY in ARKANSAS IS NOT "par" for the course. End of story. Any snow in April is EXTREMELY rare. Average high temps for days in question is 73 for my area. Some models are turning out 6" of snow for my area. While I don't believe that, the mere fact that there is potential at all is astounding for this time of year.

So call it "par" if you like, but it ain't. Neither has March and April for the eastern part of the US..

Arktrees

Well, I shouldn't have put it that way maybe but I'm just pointing out the truth that our climate has more of this nonsense than almost any other. Thus the anomaly is par for the course, even if what it brings isn't. Yes, snow could be strange for Arkansas in April because of the factors that have to come together for that to happen, but I assure you late freezes are not rare there. What was probably the largest collection of rare magnolias in the southeast lost many entire plants, 30 ft. tall, in the infamous late freeze of 2007. While the Magnolia campbellis in Cornwall, New Zealand, Maggiore, etc. have been there for over a half century or more without having this problem. No E-W oriented mountains, no huge bodies of water, no Siberian High, etc. etc. I feel lucky on the east coast for the Great Lakes and the miniscule improvement they provide. Some early blasts of cold air undoubtedly lose a bit of their thermodynamic bite are they are expended generating snows in upstate NY. If they are reaching extreme NW Maryland, and sometimes they are, they are ever so slightly raising dewpoints here.

Texas A&M U: "Almonds are generally
poorly adapted to
Texas because they
bloom too early in
the spring and sus-
tain frost/freeze injury to the developing flow-
ers. Most varieties also appear to be very sus-
ceptible to brown rot and bacterial leaf spot.
No varieties are highly recommended because
of general failure to set crops."

This in a state whose major cities all have winter minima averages > 32F. Almost anywhere else in the world that would seem completely inscrutable.

This post was edited by davidrt28 on Wed, May 1, 13 at 21:00

Don't much care. None of that changes the fact that there is nothing "normal" about the weather the last several years. Here are the highlights in the span from Feb 2011 to August 2011 for my location only in order.

@ all time record snowfall for one storm.
-25.4 breaking all time record low
110 degree temperature rise in 1 week
54% of annual rainfall in a 6 week period (26"/48") for the wettest period on record
some of the worst tornado outbreaks on record during this same period
exceptional drought for months (from exceptional wet immediately to no rain for months with 100+ temps with no transition period)
most 100 degree days on record
all time record high temp 110

Then does not touch the drought that was just as bad in 2012, other winter storms, ice storms, 100+ days, mature tree death, etc etc. Nor that that count the national "exceptional" events. The climate has changed to lurching from one "exceptional" event to the next, with little to nothing in between. ZERO chance statistically that this is "random variation". And now snow is in the forecast for "MAY".... un-freaking-believable.

So we have people telling us, and me, "all is well", "climate is not changing", "nothing is going to happen", "this is all normal", @#$#%#!!!!!! You may not have seen such direct effects, but that does not make them any less real.

Arktrees

The climate is always changing. It has been changing since the beginning of time. Our earth has gone through ice ages, the dirty 30's etc. This is just one of the phases I guess we are going through. This is the first year I have experienced anything like this in April though. We have had a freeze in May before but it has never been so up and down. We have experienced worse drought the last 2 years than they did in the dirty thirties. 9" last year total. The climate will bounce back like it did before. Maybe not this summer but it will. And you know what! We can't do anything to stop climatic change if we wanted to anyway. Some people may think we can, but those are the people that have no grip on reality.

As for long term changes in the climate, don't much think there was a civilization ABSOLUTELY DEPENDENT on a stable climate around for those.

Its too late to prevent, so by all means, lets make it worse then.

LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL!!!!! GREAT PLAN........

Arktrees

Holy Cow. Who said let's make it worse. You can't be one of those people that really think you have the power to stop nature. If the climate is changing, it is changing. It has changed in the past and it will change in the future. Don't fool yourself into believing that we have the power to stop it.

Arktrees, I agree the climate _seems_ to have been going crazy in the past few years. Unprecedented things may have happened. BUT, have you seen PBS's the Dustbowl? In the 1930s you would have thought the same thing. People who lived through New England's Year with A Summer (caused by a volcanic eruption) would have thought that. People in the 1790s (IIRC) might have thought that of that string of very cold winters. Etc. etc. If you think I'm "denying any sort of theory of something being caused by human activity that should not be discussed on gardenweb because it leads to long futile, off-topic discussions" (TM) you're wrong. I'm just pointing out there have been pst period of climate weirdness. So I'm not denying the climate could be going crazy, I'm just saying that we don't know yet, and that the American Midwest having a freak late outbreak of cold in early May just isn't that unexpected. When there's nothing separating you from the north pole and no permanent blocking weather pattern like the Siberian High the keeps seasonal transitions under tight control.
I've lost tens of expensive rhododendrons in the past 3 summers. You don't need tell me they've sucked.

This post was edited by davidrt28 on Thu, May 2, 13 at 12:30

David,
Fair enough. Yes, Ive seen the dustbowl, and know about "The Year Without a Summer", and I also know that the last time the earth was as warm as projected in 100 years, the forest prairie line was not near OKC down to Dallas, but much further west near Lubbock Texas. It is also thought that the over all winters were milder. Which actually gives me a big of hope so to speak. Though,hard data is lacking during that time. And FTR, I do think the current issues are partly caused by the natural cycles of NA climate. Specifically negative PDO, La Nina during a negative PDO, and unusually warm Atlantic (actually warmer than would be indicated by past climate) Have been saying that from the start. BUT hardly all of it. There was no May snow in Arkansas during the 30's. Nor did the Arctic ice melt as it is now. What's more, many of those records are now being broken. Lastly, those extremes tended to be one sided i.e. drought and heat, not lurching back and forth from one en to the other with basically no transition.

I appreciate, you coming back to clarify, but I do disagree that we can't know for sure.

inge,
Do nothing is exactly what it sounds as though you are saying. It's thought that the Chinese lose more than 10% of their annual crop production due to reduction in sunlight intensity sunlight alone due to pollution, and that was in the 90's. Pollution has gotten far worse since then, so the number is certainly higher now. Where is there not pollution? Where do people not live and travel to and from? Some claim the atmosphere is too big to affect. If that were true why does it only weight on 14.7 pounds are sealevel? That is all the mass of the entire atmosphere above you at the very bottom of that atmosphere. Hardly an insurmountable amount The biological/climate system is only a thin skin around the earth, exactly where we live. To think that 7,000,000,000 people can't have an effect on climate contained in 14.7 pound columns of mass above them is simply ridiculous .

Arktrees

I bet you are a democrat.

(BTW, I was replying to Arktrees, not the person who is trashing the forum by attempting a political insult.)

Ok. And I do see where you are coming from. I just hope you are wrong about some kind of permanent change. I really think these last 3 were probably the worst _string_ of summers on the east coast since the 1930s...there were hot summers in the 80s, but never 3 in a row. Of course, the 30s stopped being the 30s. Let's hope that's the case now - you say a zero chance of this all being "coincidence" but the earth's climate is too complicated for our scientists to make all but the most cursory predictions about it...perhaps this is some kind of re-balancing act and things will go back to normal for a couple more decades. Perhaps not...perhaps this is only the beginning! My point is we just can't be sure. And then there are other things we totally cannot predict. If another Pinatubo erupts - and by last summer I was practically praying for it - that could radically alter climate. Funny I usually find myself in your shoes though! Merely arguing for the possibility of what you're talking about (versus what I feel is your argument of certainty) gets you in hot water sometimes. There have been so many strange weather things around the world for the past few years. NZ just came out of the one of their worst droughts ever. Many gardeners there considered themselves drought immune. Australia's recent epic heatwaves. The Texas/South Plains drought. The October snowstorm in the interior Northeast & Hurricane/Noreaster hybrid Sandy. etc. etc.

This post was edited by davidrt28 on Thu, May 2, 13 at 15:39

I put in two Larch last fall and understand they are very hardy

And actually I was referring to Arktrees also, but just kidding with him to lighten up this thing that has gotten off topic. He went crazy so I just put in a jab.
Thanks gamekeeper.

inge,
WORSE!!! I'm educated in science. I believe and understand science, not your attempt to demonize someone because you can't argue with them effectively. That attempt at labeling, is an admission of being beaten.

david,
To be sure, not everyone will be convinced for whatever reason. For me personally, I have seen enough. And yes I do want to be wrong. I much rather be wrong than right on this subject. But I also don't think I know "what will happen next". There are so many feedbacks, that chaos reins. For instance, on the surface, warmer winters would be expected from a warming climate. BUT, the lose of Arctic ice has decreased the temp contrast from equator to pole, weakening the jet stream, so that is does more screwy things, bringing extremes, even though the system as a whole warms. Nobody though so much ice would melt so fast, but it has, and right on cue, things got stupid. The fact that I am sitting in Northwest Arkansas on May 2 with a Winter Weather Advisory is multiple sigmas beyond ridiculous. But a weakened jet stream takes freak meanders, and brings snow to Arkansas in May It's has been like that the entire spring in eastern NA and western Europe. BUT, the rest of the northern hemisphere has been unusually warm for the most part. FWIW, I respect your ability for discussing rationally.

As for hot water, nahhhh. I expected someone to go that direction when I decided to point some things out.

Arktrees

PS, I really would love to be wrong and climate did not change, but alas, sea ice says otherwise.

First of all Mr. Scientist, I asked several questions and did not ask for any of your scientific THEORIES. I do everything I can to make sure I help the environment. I can't help it that you are angry but I guess because you know all there is to know and that the world is coming to an end you get mad about it. I did not intend for someone to come on here and rant about all of the knowledge that they possess. Have a great day and a nicer tomorrow.

Never claimed to be an expert anything. However, thank you for thinking that I am. You started labeling, rather than it being taken as a "jab", I took the label and ran with it to my advantage. You didn't like it. Whatever, don't care.

Good luck to you and your gardening.

Arktrees