The junk bond colaspe which the housing finance market lost a bundle will cause the housing market to be at a all time low. Along with the continued Job lost now in the finance and housing loan theater will cause a recession that we never seen before. the far left Dumocrats will think they have the answer by taxiation, but about the only ones left to tax will the rich. This will cause the majority of dumocrats to be voted out of office eventually. Yes, this will affect all manufacturing across the board. In 20 years we will be sneaking across the boarder for blue collar jobs.the Mexcian gov. will not be as sympothic as the libs in this country. Now for the good news----------------??? I can't think of any? except vote demo is you like more of your hard earned money to be taken from you.

rcmoser,
Holy Smokes! Pass the prozac. All I can say is that people have been predicting the worst for thousands of years. We live in the best time the planet has ever seen as far as the human race is concerned. The American worker is still the most productive in the world. As far as prices, we may see a small drop or more sales if there is a recession but the market is vastly diferent than the 30's when we had a full blown depression. So short of a huge rock from outer space or the birth of airborn ebola, the world will keep turning, we'll keep paying taxes and tractors will keep selling. At least that's how I see it.

Get th' popcorn apoppin' and watch for the asteroid with Earth's name on it. This might be an energetic thread.

Who do you blame ? Gov or the stupidity of the public?
Take my neighbor , makes about 45k a year.
3 year old 2200 sq ft home....FINANCED
2006 Dodge Hemi Charger so his wife can take the kids to sports.....FINANCED
2005 fully loaded F250 4x4 to drive 4 miles to work.....FINANCED
And finally a $3400 lawn tractor to mow his 1/2 acre lawn.....FINANCED
And we are blameing the Gov ????????
BTW.....the wife got a job cutting hair last week.

Big ticket items (Sub Compacts???) Farmers are selling corn and beans at all time record prices. Milk prices have almost doubled in the past year. Farm equipment is selling well, check JD,Cat,Case/IH and NH sales numbers.
Financial companys that put out sub-prime mortgages on over valued housing are afraid that people will come to thier senses and default - I think these sub-prime mortgages is mainly on housing thats being flipped and not on principle homes - yes, a few unlucky startup family's will lose (but lose what?) look at dynamike59 post.
W & the Fed bank said the gov will help those unlucky's from losing all, but not those that made bad business decisions(my take is the financial instutions).
I would like to have a $13-15K ZTR to boost my landscape business and a $35K and a L35 series 'bota to replace a 79 JD2040 (its payed for) that I use 80-100 hrs/yr in my landscape business, since I don't have cash money to pay for these, will wait will stay out of the cutting business for now and use a 30 yr old tractor w/FEL for moving and loading material.
I have no outstanding debts including CC's, retired(accepted a early out) this yr. I see no recession in my future, I see the people flipping houses needing landscaping - or the banks that may ending owning these properties needing outside maintenance (then will buy the ZTR).

To answer the question, tractor prices are likely to follow whatever trend the rest of the market takes; either inflation or deflation (how do you like that answer). There are some interesting dynamics in play when you consider the likely illegal immigration clamp-down and the bad press Chinese imports are getting these days.

All I know is when the day comes when my services in the tool and die industry are no longer needed I'll still have my trusty GT to make a living with because the left-over land barrons will still like their lawns trimmed and their driveways cleaned.

No problem with tractors,I'm certain Bush will buy some from China for us old timers. After all he needs them for his ranch.I bet they will have bargan value.
regg

makepar,

Who has a crystal ball? I know I wish I was able to predict the future when it comes to market situations.

Cheers

JDFANATIC

Chinese Tractors!!!??? We don't need no stinkin' Chinese tractors! Yeah, we'll probably see them but no worries 'cause somebody will lick the fender and they'll all be recalled 'cause there's too much lead in their paint! :^)

I wish the wind would quit blowing my purple hull peas over.

Dynamike,
Did you pay cash for your home or new vehicle?

There's nothing wrong with buying on credit, as long as you 1) pay the bills on time and 2) qualify for the lowest rate because you've always paid the bills on time.
It's when people use credit cards for supplemental income (buying groceries with the Visa when the checking account's overdrawn--instead of just eating Mac'Ncheese) that they get in trouble.

When buying a big ticket item, be it a home, car or even a tractor, at least someone (if not you) has looked at your financial situation to say yea or nay.

On the other hand, I can't believe ARMs are even legal for first-time homebuyers without some kind of a disclaimer that states they understand they may be on a one-way street to financial ruin. I spoke to someone the other day whose mortgage went up $500 in the past year, and his only way out was to re-finance with a fixed-rate. Closing costs were several thousand dollars, which after struggling to keep his head above water with his new payment for as long as he could, he absolutely didn't have. Fortunately he had friends and family to bail him out. I don't think he overbought to try to look like a big shot. He simply didn't think of the consequences of what might happen should that rate go up, and honestly thought he was buying within his means. Not every 25 year old with a high school diploma and a family of four is an amateur financier. I'm sure there are many like him who don't have an out and just throw in the towel. No doubt that's contributed to the economic state of the union.

But I don't think tractor prices will be coming down any time soon. Responsible heads-of-household have savings and investments to fall back on, and those same guys will continue to buy high-end tractors as needed. And young folks like me will continue to buy their used stuff (THAT I'll pay cash for) as they upgrade!

Who says we're in a recession? If you are referring to some media financial experts - good luck. The weather man has a better track record than those predictors. They can't even agree on what the stock market is going to do from one day to the next.

And qualified people with loans is not the problem. I have a mortgage and a car loan. I also have credit cards. The bills are paid on time. My credit rating is fine. The problem was people getting loans/ mortgages who didn't really qualified and didn't know what they were signing.

Tractor prices will go as the market allows. As long as their is a demand, the prices will stay at present levels or increase.

Enjoy the journey.

eal51 in western CT

I agree with EAL. The definition of recession is:

"A contraction in the level of economic activity in which real GDP declines in two successive quarters."

We haven't had a one quarter decline in GDP in this business cycle. Some Wall Street pundits have indicated that a recession is likely if the Fed doesn't cut the Fed Funds Rate by 500 basis points (.5%) at their next meeting on September 18 but that is pure speculation.

-Deerslayer

------quote-------
* Posted by marineguy (My Page) on
Sun, Sep 9, 07 at 17:16

Dynamike,
Did you pay cash for your home or new vehicle?

There's nothing wrong with buying on credit, as long as you 1) pay the bills on time and 2) qualify for the lowest rate because you've always paid the bills on time.
------Unquote-------

He listed the guys income, and at the guys income and that list of goodies, that guy is walking the edge.

I bet his neighbor is not investing, has no life insurance, and is not saving for his kids college. He is probably living paycheck to paycheck and almost off his debt is in depreciating items (2 vehicles and a mower).

No one is rejecting financing goods. But, too many are living on loans. They never create a cushion.

I am 35 and we are debt free except the house, which is on a 15 year with 7 years left. We put ourselves through college and we are investing 5% of our income and have $750k in 30 year term. We pay off our vehicles in 3 years, as opposed to 6 like most people do now. We have enough in savings to give us a good 6 months of no lifestyle change should one of be downsized or whatever. AND when the first kid gets out of daycare and her $400/mo daycare bill is gone, we'll invest most of it into her college fund.

Would we be afraid of taking out a loan? No.
We won't be paying cash for our car, and a loan will be fine.

Too many people can not afford one small family crisis without their whole worlds crashing.

And people's priorities are out of whack.
My neighbors son's friend (40year old) rode in on his Harley and proceeded to talk about how rough it was for his start up contractor business and how he might lose his enclosed trailer and some high end tools to repo. He talked about 'just needing 10k' to invest in one piece of equipment so he could get a niche market most people can not serve here.
All this while he sat on a $17.5k Harley. The guy did not ever even consider getting out from underneath his bike loan, and reinvesting that payment back to himself to help him save his equipment or to buy his special tool.

THAT is what Dynamike was talking about.

As for tractor, and any other sales, cost coming down?
Doubt it to any great extent. They make the majority of their money on consumables and service, not the initial sale.

I meant 50 basis points. Why didn't someone catch that? 8^)

-Deerslayer

Don't worry moser, there will be well-paying jobs for good typists like you regardless of what party is in power.

I have to agree with marineguy. Most of the people who are in trouble never saw it coming. We have a huge advertising industry convincing us to buy more and more and a society that places huge emphasis on material wealth. In addition we have financial institutions that are willing to offer ARM's, charge cards to people who probably shouldn't qualify. It's nice to think that we all will be nice responsible citizens and play by the rules, save the amount we should, make the right choices as far as education, health care, and even occupation. However, this is not human nature. I am neither R nor D but one of the things that really irks the R is the paternalistic attitude taken by wealthy D towards the population as a whole. That is a move toward the left. And yet if we want to maintain a healthy, educated middle class society what are our choices? Many people don't know what is good for them and probably never will. It's not just the individual who pays for their lack of foresight but society as a whole. We pay with higher crime rates, more broken families, poorer education, healthcare and overall waste of human resources.

popcorn, your purple hulls are still producing?

Considering that the financial community has very accurately predicted 12 of the last 6 recessions, I'm not going to get too worked up until something actually happens. And if it does, I'm sure I can find a lot of more pressing matters to worry about than lawn tractor prices!

bhshaman,
$400 a month on day care? That's not bad. I know people who pay twice that. When our 2nd kid came along, keeping both in daycare would have been nearly as much as my wife brought home as a 5th year teacher. Early in the summer of '05 she started telling me how she dreaded going back to that school, the poor leadership, annoying parents, and disruptive kids. So I said "Don't." And my career-minded wife has been perfectly content to be a stay-home-mom (don't dare say housewife) ever since.
I plan on getting a full decade of use out of both of my vehicles, one of which was paid off in five years, two years ago; and the other which will be paid off next year. I don't see the financial benefit in paying off the loan two years early, when at that point it's reduced to principal only. What blows my mind is when I see people trading in cars "with equity" meaning they haven't even paid it off yet, and end up "upside down" in their new car loan because they owed more than the previous car was worth. A high school buddy of mine did that three times, from new car to newer car to even newer car, to old POS with a large unsecured debt to pay off.
When I was 22 years old I had a beer with an old WWII vet in Oceanside, CA. I asked him after 8 decades on this planet what advice could he give to a young guy just starting out. After thinking for a minute, he said to always think of where you want to be in 5 and 10 years, to look at what you're doing right now to achieve that goal, and to fine tune your lifestyle, your financial habits, your education, and your career to get there. And don't start living for the moment until you're 60.
I've been living that way for about 10 years now, and after buying used lawnmowers, dining out no more than once a week, and dressing my kids in hand-me-downs, I have no doubt in my mind I'll be able to retire at age 43 (if I want to). Life moves fast. It's not hard to take a look down the road, see where it's taking you, and change directions if you don't like it. I know a lot of people who spend exhorbant amounts on lottery tickets and hope for good fortune down the road as they spend like there's no tomorrow. I'm not going to base my retirement and kids' education on hope.
My college roomate had a small banner hanging over his desk, it said "Get rich... slowly."

Steveski got it right,
"I think these sub-prime mortgages is mainly on housing thats being flipped and not on principle homes "

An awful lot of mortgage brokers originated an awful number of junk mortgages so penniless speculators could buy a
house sight unseen and then sell it at a higher price before the first mortgage payment came due. This went on and on for
several years before the bubble burst. Now that prices are falling the speculators can't flip them so the junk mortgages are in default.

marineguy, bhshaman,
It sounds like you guys have it pretty well figured out. My wife and I are expecting our first! Maybe things will change once the baby arrives but the way it's looking now it's going to be a footrace though to see who gets to spend more time at home with our child. She's a busy vet and of course I'm a doc, both professions with type A personalities galore but I guess we both feel like some things are more important than money or professional prestige. I wouldn't care if someone were to call me a "househusband". People on their death bed never say "I wish I spent more time at work." Don't get me wrong, we're not exactly slackers but the organization I work for asked me to head up a new clinic. I really had to think twice before taking it on.
As I said in a previous post, our newest vehicle is Jenn's '01 Camry. We can bicycle to work so we don't put on many miles. We live in an established neighborhood near the university in our town. Many of my colleagues have opted for swanky new houses. As far as I can see all it's done for them is smaller lots and more restrictive covenants. We're lucky 'cause we have 3 non-taxable retirement vehicles. One that is paid for entirely by my organization, one that is matching and one that isn't matched but is also pretax. I also have some money in a Canadian governmental hospital workers retirement fund that not only grows with interest (guaranteed a minimum of 10%) but is also indexed to inflation. (If you live in Canada it is very advantageous to be firmly attached to the gov't teat. My sister for instance who is an ICU nurse and clinical instructor has received 1 year of 70% pay for each of her maternity leaves.) Two of our vehicles were bought new, one used but we plan on driving them 'til the wheels fall off. I agree with marineguy that it's often not worth it to pay cash for a vehicle. All our vehicles are paid for but if I was in need I would just wait for one of the no interst for 5 yr specials and leave my money in some interest bearing investment.

LOL @ rosarama

Lakeguy,
That's great news. I've experienced no greater thrill in my life than holding my newborn sons in my hands. Based solely on your words of wisdom in this forum, I have no doubt you'll be a fantastic father.
What kind of educational benefits does Canada offer? On my 1st born's 1st birthday I started contributing to a Coverdell ESA, which allows for tax-free distributions. The intent is mainly to use it for college, but it can also be used for high school (primary) educational expenses--just in case we decide to send him to private school. I think for the second child (who turns 1 in November), I'll do the same, but I'm also planning on opening up a 529 in the very near future, which is for secondary education only, but can be used for anyone (either child, wife, grandchildren? etc). The Coverdell only allows you to contribute up to $2k annually, so the 529 allows you to up the ante a bit. I plan on continuing my monthly contributions to the Coverdell account until about age 4, then going exclusively with the 529, which I plan on opening with a portion of my annual bonus, then leaving it to grow on its own for a few years. By age 10, the boys' college should be paid for (state school anyway). We also have the option of pre-paid tuition, but you're limited to those states which offer it, and I'm more into risky investing than going with the sure thing. Plus I'm pretty confident that with a 529, I can take the amount of the pre-paid monthly premium and turn it into a lot more money than my boys will ever need for college, leaving some for their kids waaaay down the line. Plus I'm kind of hoping they'll go ROTC and have tuition paid for anyway.

I'm not sure what you might expect, regarding tractor availability and/or prices.

I was just over to my dealer to get a hydro filter and he said, "most, if not all of the manufactures are going to drop the GT lines. Lowe's and Home Depot would have the small units, but the bigger ones are going to be history. The dealers would instead, be pushing Zs".

He tried to order a Wheel Horse/Toro GT and was only able to get one, as one dealer was going out of business and happened to have one.

A little something for you to research.

bhshaman,
$400 a kid a month on day care? That's not bad.
-------
It is in a state where the average income is

Lakeguy -

Congrats on becoming a father!!!!! Enjoy every moment for the time will fly by faster than you think. Our oldest, 27, just got married in July - on 7/7/07 of course and our youngest turns 21 next week. He's got a couple of years left in college, but if his air national guard music audition goes well, and he is accepted, his last two years are paid for by the State of Connecticut! And our 24 year old is doing fine in management for Enterprise.

Sounds like you and your wife have it all in proper prospective. The best to both of you!!

Enjoy the journey.

eal51 in western CT

Lakeguy,

Conrats also, since this is your first my best advice is to go out to eat A LOT now and sleep late as much as possible. You are in for big change, glorious, but BIG.

12gauge.....I planted a row on Aug 5 and they are blooming now. Some of plants were blown over when a heavy rain/wind came through. Looking like they may do ok. Sorry, didnt mean to post that here in the middle of a recession discussion. I think about the time things get going good...something..something always comes along and zaps the wind out of the sails. And then it gets better...always gets better. Just don't overload, hold on and eat from the garden.

Thanks guys!
lkbum,
seems like most of my life has revolved around not getting sleep so I guess now is no time to start! LOL
eal51, "Sounds like you and your wife have it all in proper prospective."
Well I figure it's probably like what they say about going into battle. You have a plan and it all sounds great until the first shot is fired! LOL Jenn and I are looking forward to parenthood. Hopefully we can do as well as you seem to have with yours.
marineguy,
when I took my first semester of undergraduate in Canada I think I paid around $750.00/s in tuition. By the time I left it had risen to $6700.00 which is of course still cheap. That was back in '94. Now that we are in the States (since 97) we're going to have to start contributing to a 359. I am embarassed to say I haven't looked into it as much as I should as of yet. We had a few Americans who came to Canada to get an equivalent education for less than they would have to pay in the U.S. Tuitions continue to rise and people now are having to plan for their children's education just like here. I like to think I've gained some wisdom and will make a good dad but it seems like the most important job that I will ever do but also the one which I have had the least training for (pediatrics doesn't count)!

"Some Wall Street pundits have indicated that a recession is likely if the Fed doesn't cut the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points (.5%) at their next meeting on September 18 but that is pure speculation."

Well, the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points. It appears that we may avert a recession. Wall Street responded with the largest rally of the year. The Dow was up 336 points on September 18.

-Deerslayer