It looks like so far we've mentioned:

The always outsized demographic of Boomers aging out of the family home.

People chasing the bursting price bubble.

Continuing perception of high interest rates.

Big increases in insurance costs. (Insurance redlining.)

Insecurity over instability in the nation and the world.

Rising costs of living in general -- and of home ownership -- may prompt converting a house into cash. Am I really seeing more ads offering quick cash for jewelry and antiques -- and houses?

Don't forget the double-digit plus increases in real estate taxes that seem to be common the last few years.

I will be able to lock in my real estate taxes at the 2025 amount here in my county/state next year. It is a new state law just passed earlier this year in Missouri to help seniors. I just turned 62 in February. Had I turned 62 before 12/31/24 I would have been able to lock it in at the 2024 amount. Unfortunately one has to re-apply for the tax credit every year at the county seat.

" Don't forget the double-digit plus increases in real estate taxes that seem to be common the last few years. "

Property taxes can sometimes be overlooked at first when people consider what they think they can afford and where.

As far as increases, that's going to vary greatly. In California, we've had the rules of infamous Proposition 13 since 1978. Annual increases in assessed value are limited to 1% per year. Of course the tax base gets completely reset when a home is sold, for the taxes of a new owner, but it makes a big difference in affordability going forward. There's also a rule for those over 55 selling their principle residence that the lower tax base can be transferred to a different house purchased in the state. That helps too.

In my state there are 2 programs for reduction of amount of property tax one must pay. One is for seniors & disabled persons, the other is for limited income. Both must be applied for annually & both create a lien on the property in favor of the state. Both have max income limits for qualifying and max exemption amounts based on property equity amount. So, the taxes must eventually be paid & the value of the property affects the amount that can be deferred.

^^^ seems overly complicated. The Missouri law locks the tax in at the tax amount when one first applies for the credit (base tax amount). Then each year the tax credit is calculated as the difference between the current year's tax amount and the base tax amount. The accumulated tax credits never need to be repaid.

@KW PNW Z8, when you say ”reduction of amount of property tax one must pay”, does that mean the tax amount isn’t reduced, just the amount you pay because you have been given the exemption? And, that temporarily exempted amount will be due at a later date, hence the lien?

I don’t disagree LoneJack but just summarized what I read on the county site. I don’t qualify for either of them so hadn’t paid much attention to the rules - just knew they exist.

@Elmer J Fudd, I believe Prop 13 limits the rate of taxation to 1% of the assessed value and restricts annual increases of assessed value to an inflation factor not to exceed 2% per year which is slightly different to the way you stated the effects of the proposition.

It would seem the WA approach and the MO approach are different.

WA, as mentioned before, seems like a deferral of when the tax is paid. The law would seem to allow someone to pay, say, 80% of the current tax due, or whatever it is, and the unpaid amount is accumulated. It becomes a growing lien on the property, and paid when the property is sold. That's exactly the same mechanism used in most places when people are delinquent payers so that from any given county's perspective, it's a familiar approach and easy for them because it's as if it were an everyday event they've handled for years.

With only superficial explanations, the MO method seems more complicated. And, of course, because, I live here, the California method is easiest to understand and implement. Limit annual assessed value increases to 1% for everyone. Done.

The other advantage of our approach is that it limits valuation complaints and appeals from property owners. Other than in rare cases when values go down (like fires, local issues, or the 2000-ought real estate plunge from the lender collapses) , values otherwise rarely go down and with the 1% cap, counties don't need to haggle with property owners about annual increase increments.

Home inventory is not rising in the town I live, and what inventory there is flies off the market in no time.

@jrb451 - I thought I could give you a simple reply saying that your understanding of what I said is correct. But, as @LoneJack Zn 6a, KC said, it’s pretty complicated. I looked it up & went down a very large rabbit hole. For seniors, disabled, and low income, WA state has both a deferral & an exemption program of base property taxes & some of the special assessments approved by voters. A person that might qualify for both an exemption & a deferral must apply first for the exemption. I can’t determine what makes the difference in qualifying for exemption over the deferral - my guess is the extent & / or expected length of disability. Some of the programs require annual renewals some don’t. In all cases homeowner must maintain fire & casualty insurance naming State Dept. of Revenue as loss payee. The list of ”Triggering Events” for repayment of deferrals is 5 items long - includes death & sale. The deferrals seem to carry a 5% interest rate too. I was surprised at that. Hope it’s not a compounding interest. I did read that the assessment value of property is frozen when the exemption is granted in at least one of these situations. I hope to never be in a position to need to go back into that site & really learn about these programs. 😱 This part of the discussion went off track from @chisue original post - interesting but not affecting sales market for sure!

@KW PNW Z8, sorry to send you down the rabbit hole but thanks for looking. The term ”lien” made me think of something like a reverse mortgage and that’s not a positive image in my mind. I lived outside Seattle in the early 70s. It was a somewhat economically depressed area then. I went back for a visit in the mid 90s and the economy had improved substantially. People were being priced out of their homes because property values had increased exponently and some were having problems paying their property taxes. This was terrible for an elderly person on a fixed income.

@jrb451 - early 70’s - hmm that must’ve been The Boeing Company downturn & when they had the big billboard ”Will the last one to leave Seattle please turn out the lights?” Yes, reverse mortgages are not a generally positive thing. We moved to Seattle area in early 90’s - Boeing Space & Defense group snagged my DH after his AF retirement in CA.

fun2B - Yes, you're right. The 1% number is the starting point, when the property is purchased, and the increase is as you said. Sorry I didn't see your comment earlier. I don't pay much attention to it, it's not like it's an optional cost. The bills come and get paid.

Because of special assessments and the like that are allowed and not counted, the tax rate can be a shade higher. There's something in the back of my mind that the cost I'm paying is in the more than 1% but I don't have any bills handy.

I bought a second place in the late 20-teens, that's considerably smaller than my main house and cost quite a bit less than the value of my primary house. But since I've owned one for several decades and the other only for the past several years, the property tax bill on the new place is a good bit greater than the one on the first place.

Chisue, in my three areas of concern, the neighborhood of my primary suburban NYC home is holding steady with listings and prices rising..

NYC proper and Florida are tanking.

" NYC proper and Florida are tanking. "

What does this comment mean? What is happening and what is your source?

(I don't myself have any idea about this and am curious to know more). Thanks.

Thanks, all. The wide spread of our KT group allows me to ask if the national 'trends' I read about in a newspaper hold true across our backyards. (Not that we are a typical 'sample'.)

I asked AI what areas are soft in housing & got this answer:

Areas with notable price drops:

• California: Oakland, San Francisco, and San Diego are seeing price declines.

• Florida: Jacksonville, Tampa, and Cape Coral are experiencing price drops.

• Texas: Dallas is experiencing significant price declines.

• Other Sun Belt Cities: Several cities in the South are also seeing price reductions.

• The reason why so many are selling:

• Shifting market dynamics: Some individuals who bought during the pandemic housing boom, potentially making decisions that don't align with their long-term goals, are now choosing to sell as their needs evolve.

nicole, I did a search for San Francisco and San Diego market trends and found no significant drops having been observed. I think markets are slow (though not necessarily declining) nationwide because of interest rate levels and maybe skittish because of uncertainties but I didn't find much in the way of plummeting value trends. One of them showed a slight decline for the most recent month in mean prices but I don't think that's a clear indication of anything. It's influenced as much or more by the mix of what properties from what end of the price range happened to be active on the market, such that you could have a decrease in the mean price of transactions in a given month while having an overall rise in values. The opposite can also happen, an increase in mean prices of transactions in a period when overall total values have decreased. .

@Elmer J Fudd...It could be people are pricing their properties too high, then dropping them...? In the higher priced homes, the market has slowed down considerably here. It can take a year to sell an upper market home. We do have 3X as many for sale.

Where I live, there are very few homes in my area on the market. As a result, they are getting big bucks for them. Before covid, they couldn't hardly give them away. A house would sit on the market for ages at $50,000, but now they are selling for around $200,000! I find it ridiculous! These homes just aren't worth that!

nicole, I haven't seen it in my neighborhoods. I don't think there's anything special about them. There are no 10,000 sq feet extravaganzas. Where I am is not for first time home buyers and not for beneficiaries of new Silicon Valley-made wealth looking for a "compound".

And now for something completely different, a trip down memory lane:

" A house would sit on the market for ages at $50,000, but now they are selling for around $200,000! I find it ridiculous! "

No market is more "local" than real estate.

“No market is more "local" than real estate.”

Definitely! I’m still amazed when I compare prices around the country.

I love data and trying to make sense of it.

Agree on the location relative to prices. The areas wages have a strong correlation to local home prices, as do the quality of schools. Cross over into a worse school district and the value of the exact same home drops. I enjoy watching how different people assign value to different things.

A little late to this discussion, but I do find national reporting rather frustrating, since it seems to be about averages, and things can vary so much from region to region - as shown here.

Our neighborhoods here on the Gulf coast have a glut of properties for sale since the hurricanes last fall. People have sold for pennies on the dollar out of desperation, because hardly anybody wants to buy a home wrecked by saltwater flooding and tornado damage, which also now requires either razing and rebuilding, or raising and adding more stories. Corporate entities are the big buyers here, they say. The crazy prices of the pandemic years kind of set a floor for sellers' expectations, I understand, and that's now subsided.

There's also a new law here in FL that requires condominiums to assess owners $$ - as in thousands of dollars - for meeting building safety requirements, after that collapse of the condo building in S FL that killed over 90 people, so not very many people are buying condos either.

Property insurance here is in crisis as well - and you can't have a mortgage or HELOC without homeowners' insurance.

In fact, the disasters around the country have created a big problem with getting insurance in many places now.

" There's also a new law here in FL that requires condominiums to assess owners $$ - as in thousands of dollars - for meeting building safety requirements, "

carol, I can't speak for other states, but here in California, state law has for decades required homeowner associations of all kinds to have outside experts ANNUALLY re-assess amounts and projected dates for future spending required to maintain, rebuild, or repair,etc, assets in common areas. Money to maintain the safety and functionality and needed major maintenance for structures, roads, drainage, pools and equipment, plumbing, etc. On an all-inclusive basis. Then, an itemized reserve account for each item needs to be funded on a straight-line basis (level annual fund additions for each item) in advance, from normal dues assessments, to make sure that money is available for each major project when needed. This way is quite fair and prudent - money is available to spend when work is required. No new owner is stepping into a problem of the past for which other owners paid nothing, for later needed big $$$ spending the new owner finds themself responsible to pay for.

" Property insurance here is in crisis as well - and you can't have a mortgage or HELOC without homeowners' insurance. "

This is not a Florida-specific rule. I believe this is what prudent lenders have always required, since the dawn of time.

My HOA has reached a new level of crazy. I'm thinking of letting my house go cheap and jumping ship. I have the 7-year itch. I have an 8am appointment tomorrow to look at a house on 7.65 acres, small pond, with an HOA fee of $4a month. I hope it's as nice as the photos how...🤞🏻

I’m reading with interest your experience with the property tax lock, @LoneJack Zn 6a, KC. I’m in a rural county in Missouri and our county officials are just now getting themselves organized to offer the application materials to homeowners. We were past age 62 in 2024. 😁

Littlebug - the deadline for applying in my country was June 30. Hopefully your county can get the work done so you can apply this year and get your property taxes locked in at the 2024 amount.

" My HOA has reached a new level of crazy".

Yeah, that happens more than it should. I don't know why. We've been in our house for several decades with no issues, the association oversees only what it needs to and has a tradition of using gentle and reasonably negotiable guidance rather than heavy-handed governance. At the other place that was a more recent purchase, there seem to be more differences of opinion but, mostly, life goes on.

Both places are free-standing structures, one built by the original purchaser of the lot and the other not. HOA dues cover road and drainage maintenance, pools, landscape maintenance for common areas and other such things. It makes sure that remodels and such are in keeping with the prevailing styles of the neighborhood. HOA assessments are not a tax, it's a sharing of costs for things everyone benefits from and nothing more. State law requires full transparency of finances. Some like to quibble about why the water bill went up, or what was that tree planted, and other petty things, but really there should be no substantive issues when a board and its members address what's really necessary and nothing more.

A TV crawl yesterday said that animal shelters are being overun by people turning in their pets. The biggest reported reason is financial inability to care for the animals.

When did we see this in recent years? What followed, financially?

I'd think that this relates to the disparity between wages and the cost of housing. Unemployment hasn't risen. I'd thought wages had risen -- not enough in the face of higher RE and rentals?

The unemployment numbers may not accurately reflect actual unemployment - isn't it a lagging indicator? All the people who've lost their government jobs must count for something. I thought I heard that they haven't been included.

Earlier today, I heard reporting about certain government data on employment being removed from official websites, along with the statisticians tracking such things being fired.

@chisue, do you currently have a pet? Seen the price of pet food and what veterinary costs are running these days? They've skyrocketed.

" A TV crawl yesterday said that animal shelters are being overun by people turning in their pets. The biggest reported reason is financial inability to care for the animals. "

It sounds like pets at least are being given a chance for a better life than some humans. What happens to the children in homes of such people?

" The unemployment numbers may not accurately reflect actual unemployment - isn't it a lagging indicator? "

It may be. But don't you think people look at it more as a standalone measurement, with more intended political consequences than anything else? I do.

As for removing stats and other measurement info from governmental webpages, my perhaps biased view would be to expect this more in red places than in blue ones. But neither flavor can be expected to always be practitioners of truth and transparency.

As for removing stats and other measurement info from governmental webpages, my perhaps biased view would be to expect this more in red places than in blue ones.

The numbers are the national statistics, not local or by state. Do you expect to get statistics from the Dept of Education? Or national stats on vaccines? Or even stats on diseases like measles? Got nothing to do with red/blue areas.

I received a local RE agent’s quarterly summary for Venice housing and sales for 2Qtr 2025. Sales prices are up — average SFR $2.8M. This price is undoubtedly inflated by one (or two?) sales in eight figures -- and they were NOT for homes on the boardwalk, steps from the sand and with permanently unobstructed views. Nor were they on the (remaining) canals. In other words, pure craziness.

No one would ever confuse Venice with the neighborhoods that typically command those type of prices. No generous lots, no gated conmunities, no HOAs that I’m aware of. Other new builds have striking architecture without prices so far out of line. (And who are the new neighbors who can afford 30,000+ - 40,000+ per year in property taxes?)

Local crash in the cards? Silicon Beach pushed up prices in the last c 10 years. Who knows how long it can last.

Of the four local costal communities — Malibu, Pacific Palisades, Santa Monica, Venice — we have the lowest home prices. At least before the Palisades fire.

" The numbers are the national statistics, not local or by state. "

Stats of a national nature that are followed, produced, or tabulated by governmental agencies are coming from a red place at the moment. There have been numerous reports for months about various types of information not consistent with current policies and positions that have been taken down or changed.

Just as one example, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (part of the Dept of Commerce) is the agency that produces national stats like GDP, Personal Income, Balance of Trade figures, and the like. It announced some months ago that it would be making "improvements" in methodology and changes in data presentation for its economic data products, effective with 2025. Wanna guess why?

I predict in advance that prior years figures won't be restated. That way, figures released under the new methodologies (which obviously will be jiggered to present the best possible picture) won't be able to be compared with past years.

The topic of Control of information and why was well covered in the book 1984.

Edit to add -

I also recall stories about various types of government info previously on State of Florida and other state websites having been taken down.

I'm reporting back after my little foray into the local Colorado housing market. What I found was: 90% of the homes offered were picked up 7-25 years ago and have doubled in price. Most need a new wood deck, they never upgraded to Trex. They painted the oak kitchen cabinets white, a remodel is needed. They never finished their basement. Instead of fixing the place up, they're jumping ship & downsizing. Moving to where their children are living, since they've since retired. The homes that were upgraded and maintained are rather expensive by local standards and aren't selling in a timely manner...sitting for 9-12 months before getting a lower offer.

In my case, I'd be down sizing & getting rid of the HOA that includes amenities I don't use.

I'm not surprised. A few elements of your comments apply to our house - not the doubling in value, basement, or un-remodeled kitchen comments, but the circumstances and the deck assessments do for sure. But our local market isn't as moribund as you describe for your area. But as I mentioned before, interest rates are the big problem.

Most affected are first time home buyers. Properties within reach for them become too expensive because of interest rates, more than because of price inflation. Lower rates fix the problem. Existing owners, especially folks like you who will be downsizing, are looking at a different segment of the market and for them, buying another home is less dependent on interest rates because, usually, equity realized from the home sold pays for much of the new purchase.

Good luck in your quest.

Slightly OT, but my sister was driving the PCH through Malibu the other day and told me it was sort of shocking that virtually all the homes there are gone now, but on the brighter side, the view was fabulous. We wondered what will happen there, and in those other exclusive, yet now burned out areas.

That's Pacific Coast Highway for the 90%+ who wouldn't know.

Malibu and the Palisades are a bit away from my normal wanderings. We know people who lost their homes but I haven't had the chance to detour by to look. I once lived nearby.

Neighborhood-wide fire disasters are not new - we've unfortunately had several in this century. An eye opener to me with this most recent one was learning for the first time how these events produce many dangerous chemicals that need special treatment for removal. It's as if these areas become like toxic waste dumps, not literally but similar to Supefund sites.

Does anyone know, does the same thing happen when just one house burns down?

I don’t recall so many beachfront homes ever being destroyed in Malibu. Usually the highway — PCH — allows firefighters a strong defense of that area. Exceptionally strong winds were so destructive, pushing flying embers past the capacity of defensive maneuvers. The morning after photos and videos were shocking.

In the past large swathes of the hillsides opposite the beach have burned. One particular fire, maybe sometime in the 1990s, literally cleared all the homes for a stretch of hill that had structures side by side, seemingly one on top the other — all with coveted ocean views. Within a few years the hill had almost entirely disappeared again, once again obliterated by houses.

At least there was no tsunami damage to add insult to injury.

To quote myself, what I said above:

" Stats of a national nature that are followed, produced, or tabulated by governmental agencies are coming from a red place at the moment. "

There was some action on this today. A firing because a person in a position to do so didn't like the information that was released.

I can't be more specific, it seems to trigger blocks.

1. Went to look @ 2 homes for sale in my area.....about a mile away. One house needed a NEW deck, totally falling down. The wood clad aluminum windows ALL 50 of them, needed the wood to be refinished and sealed...damaged from Winter condensation. (Gross!) The kitchen island was tiny, with NO exhaust fan for the stove. It had 2 furnaces and 2 hot water heaters(It would have outrageous utility bills). The garage wasn't heated, 10' shorter than our garage. No AC, it was hot just walking through it. The basement was unfinished(2000sq feet, 2 bathrooms, 2 bedrooms). The stucco has cracks, needed repaired. They were asking TOP DOLLAR. This seems typical. If I was not able to repair my own home & it was in this kind of shape....I'd sell and go buy a brand NEW one for the same price I'd get for mine. A swap!
2. I did find an older, 1970's rancher, one block from a big college. 2 car garage attached, 2 car detached, partially remodeled. That would make an EXCELLENT rental! The prior owner died. Rooms rent for $1000 each, it had 5 bedrooms!

The adjusted (re-readjusted?) jobs report may be the answer to my original question about who is selling and why. Without gains in the health care idustry, the report would be in the negative numbers. Shooting the messenger doesn't help.

What does stagflation do for the people now touted as millionaires because their homes are/were overvalued?

Andrew Tobias(a well known financial advisor), says: A millionaire is someone who has 5 million cash". He says the term millionaire has changed. It's not about what your house is worth, you have to have some place to live...how much cash or liquid assets(stocks, annunities...) do you have? People who "were" doing well....are still doing well...that I know.

I agree with that definition, Nicole, but just last week I saw articles claiming that we have a huge new class of American 'millionaires' -- only because their homes have become so over-valued.

I see a weakening market developing along Chicago's north shore where people compete to buy expensive homes to tear down and build bigger, then sell in three years. Is it a business plan or a hobby?

chisue, that is so true! You know that guy tearing down and building new a couple of towns south? Trying to make deals with the village for land swaps? I’m convinced by the time the fiasco is complete he and wife will divorce and the beast will go on the market. (can I be snarky and complain that the wife was tearfully asking the village to agree to some petition because they just want to get moved in and let their kids go to school there. There’s nothing to stop them from paying tuition to send their kids to school, or from buying or renting during the build.)

Even newish homes, less than 10 years old, get torn down.

bpath -- How to make your family welcome, huh?