As is so often the case, the arctic air is going to come very close to us but it's too early to tell whether it will move over us or not, which of course is the difference between 10 degrees and 28 degrees. I am taking no chances - even if it doesn't materialize the potential for a serious arctic blast is there and I am going to spend all weekend getting everything ready. Here's the latest from the Seattle National Weather Service office. Showers will persist Friday night into Sat with colder air still working into the area. Both the GFS/NAM have trended lower on thicknesses by 12z Sat...1000-500mb below 5200m...1000-850mb below 1290m and 850 mb temperatures -8c Seattle northward. With pscz activity expected...things could get interesting Sat. Have lowered snow levels to near 1k feet...as low as I can go without introducing at least a mix of snow/rain in the lowland zones. However...this is not out of the question...especially north of Seattle if convergence activity gets going. Given this is still day 3...will hold off on mentioning any mix over The Lowlands as models often back off cold air. Long term...the extended continues to get more interesting with each run of the GFS and European model (ecmwf). Models develop a deep closed upper low over southern British Columbia with a high amplitude ridge at 150 west. This allows cold air from the Yukon to slip southward along the Canadian rockies. The both the GFS/European model (ecmwf) have trended colder with this airmass and now indicate a near 1050mb high sliding sliding southward. The main system of interest is a low that sneaks under the ridge and develops as it moves into either Washington or Oregon Sat night or sun. Depending on the exact track...its not out of the question that there could be a lowland snow event. The NAM-12 is going gangbusters with the low...deepening and tracking it into southern Washington sun...a near perfect trajectory for lowland snow. However...the GFS tracks the main low and moisture a little further south into central Oregon. The European model (ecmwf) is close the NAM-12/previous GFS runs that bring the low across southern Washington. Basically...the usual uncertainties exist as to weather the cold air and moisture will meet up perfectly. Not going to venture a guess at this point...but this system bears watching. Things do not get any less interesting after the possible Sunday system as very cold air remains banked up near the Canadian border. The GFS now drives a modified Arctic front southward into the the area Sun night/Monday with a closed upper low right over the area. Again...models like to do this in the extended and rarely pans out but the long wave pattern is favorable and things definitely are trending towards colder. For now...will keep with the highs in the upper 30s/near 40 early next week with lows near freezing...implying a threat of snow or mixed precipitation with the mention of showers.

Lowest was 10 F. a few nights ago. There was one inch of fine snow that covered everything overnight. Still arctic cold but very bright due to snow cover and stronger sun, and wind is gone. Interesting to see how the plants change in appearance during these events--rhododendron and Aucuba leaves fold. Now that it is a tad milder, see the Trachys looking better. Amazing! Supposed to hit 50 f. In a few days with showers. Basically though been a dry winter. Saw an extended forecast calling for colder than normal for February in the East, then much warmer than normal March and April in the East.

Scott, You are bad, bad, bad. I've spend most of the last 4 days at fires, going to the store to buy food for the firefighters, cooking for the firefighters, baking for the firefighters, etc. etc. etc. and I was hoping you meant the 80s for a high when I saw the title of your post, even though I didn't really think you did. We were out at an all-night-fire the other night and the temps were in the 90s until 2 or 3 a.m., and of course, at the fireground it was much hotter because of heat radiating from the fire. If anyone remembers the summer of 1980.....I am starting to wonder if this one will be like it. I don't know how bad that one was here in OK, but in Fort Worth that year, we had 69 days over 100 and I think 42 or 43 of them were consecutive. Water companies here are starting to impose water restrictions. Some are asking people to cut back voluntarily. One, which serves a lot of the people north of us in our county, abruptly announced "no outdoor watering" yesterday. I don't know that people will comply with that. When you have very dense clay soil that contracts and expands, you have to keep the soil around the foundation moist or risk having a repair bill of thousands of dollars if your foundation cracks. So far our water company hasn't implemented watering restrictions, but it wouldn't surprise me if it comes to that. I know they're having some problems with a pump near us. We haven't had water restrictions since moving here in 1999, not even in 2003 when we only had a little over 18" of rain for the whole year, but I don't think 2003 was as hot as this year. Soil moisture levels at the Mesonet stations are pitiful and Keetch Byrum Drought Index numbers are shockingly high for this time of year when we normally have good residual soil moisture from the spring's rainy season. I need to go outside and pick purplehull peas and okra before it gets too hot, but the bunnies and deer are out there eating and I'm hoping they hurry up and finish. I don't want to go out and frighten them....or fight my way past them to get to the garden gate. No relief in sight here either....with highs over 100 forecast for the next 7 days. Our morning low on our Min-Max thermometer usually hits 80 or 81 and sometimes 79, but I've noticed that our Mesonet station at a lower elevation drops to 77 or 78 or even 76. Really though, those temps don't drop until shortly before sunrise and they don't stay their long either. Dawn

Wetsuitor: The only ones I dug up this year were 4 washies and a sago palm, each of which would take considerable protection here including heat. I will be leaving those in when they get 2 big to handle, but the washies seem to take root distubance very well and overwinter well indoors. There is of course some set back and it is slow to get growing in the spring, however I'm not ready to get into an elaborate heating system yet. I'm trying to work out my kinks this year on a trachy. Plus my wife would kill me if I had Jim's setup! I live in maybe the coldest winter 6a in America. This will be my 3rd winter here, the lowest low each of the past 2 years is -2, and -8F, HOWEVER, it is the norm to go 3 weeks at a time never getting above freezing. Last December and January, we had 9 days that got above freezing during the day, and most of those were in the 33-38F range for highs. We also had 2 3-weeks seesions of consecutive below freezing weather. The other problem is that I generally don't see grass from Dec.1 to mid-March, it never gets warm enough to ever melt the snow. Last year I lost 2 decent sized trachies and a sabal palmetto, and my minors and needle that survived received considerable damage, the minors burned 98%, the only things left were the emerging spears. Needle had spear pull with surving pups. That was with frost cloth wrapped unheated leaf cages, which provided 0-30% damage and no losses the year before.