A Six, for real? I've only see a 4 so far for Friday, and that is from The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes, who is the source I trust the most. He developed and originated the TorCon Index, which classifies risk on a scale of 0-10, or maybe 1 to 10. However, it updates daily )sometimes multiple times a day) as conditions warrant, and it certainly wouldn't surprise me to see that 4 go up higher because the SPC has been highlighting Friday as a possible severe day for several days now.

Regardless, nothing for Thurs-Fri-Sat is engraved in stone because a lot depends on the cold front that comes through Wed and its' effect on the way certain conditions will (or won't) come together to cause severe weather.

First of all, if the number ends up being a 6, that means there is a 60% chance of a tornado occurring within 50 miles of any given point within the area given a 6. For most of us, the tornado won't happen, of course, but it means we all have a chance of having one. However, everyone in the risk area also will be subject to other forms of severe weather like thunderstorms, hail, lightning, strong straight-line winds, etc. so we all need to be watchful. Some of these can be mitigated if you can cover and protect plants, but any covers use must be staked, tied, weighted down, etc. or they can go airborne, roll or blow through a garden and cause more damage. So, if you use buckets, baskets or boxes for hail protection, you need to place a rock, brick, piece of lumber, etc. on top to hold them in place. Floating row covers and netting can be weighted down or attached to cages or hoops using zip-ties, twine, binder clips, U-shaped landscape fabric staples, etc.

I don't do anything differently on a high risk day than on a moderate or low risk day. If a tornado is coming, it is coming, and covering up the plants won't save them if you are in the path of a tornado, though you might be able to protect them from at least the hail. Having said that, until my plants get too tall, I keep them covered with low tunnel hoops covered with bird netting or deer netting attached to zip ties. Only about 1/3 of my veggie garden plants still are covered with netting at this point because the rest were getting to tall and I had to remove the netting. So, some of my plants have protection in place, others are too tall to protect. Most plants bounce back well from hail damage, except for plants with a central growing tip like onions or corn plants. If the central growing tip gets damaged, their growth stalls and generally does not recover.

Honestly, the last thing on my mind when the TorCon Value is high is the plants. Just like the native plants that cover the countryside, they are fairly resilient and can cope with a lot of weather damage, often recovering quickly. On a day when the TorCon value is high, like when the SPC has us in the Enhanced, Moderate or High risk areas, the thoughts running through my mind are these: Is the weather radio plugged in, fully functioning and is the alert feature set loud enough to wake us up at night? Is the back-up battery in it fresh and working? Does each family member have apps on their cell phones to get weather warnings? Is the tornado shelter ready? Clean? Stocked with water, snacks and other supplies? Flashlights are a must! Is our pet protection plan in place? Do I have the places where our pets shelter ready for them? I try to plan ahead. If tornadoes or hail are in the forecast, I don't let the poultry out to free-range because they won't want to go up voluntarily before dark. It is better to leave them in their enclosed coops/chicken runs so they will be safe. I make sure the dogs and cats are in, that the dog beds are in their safe place and that I put their food and water dishes there too. I leave the bedroom closet doors open because the cats will seek shelter themselves either in the closets or under the beds. We used to take our dogs to the tornado shelter with us, but two of them are getting too old to handle the steep stairs, so we put them in the walk-in pantry beneath the stair case and close them up in there. We put the two small dogs in the downstairs bathroom, which is an interior room with no window. The plants, though important to me overall, rate far below the people, dogs and cats.

I do all the usual stuff you ought to do before severe weather---drag the patio furniture up onto the porch or into the garage, make sure the trash cans are in the garage, make sure the greenhouse and shed doors are closed, etc.

Oh, and if anyone is going to be on the road driving home from work during a high risk time, I am in constant communication with them alerting them to things like tornadoes that are about to cross the highway they're traveling. My DH has a long commute daily on the interstate from Dallas to here and he has had to dodge a lot of hail and tornado warnings over the years. I usually see them early enough to get him off the road and in a truck stop or gas station or something.

Oh, and plants in containers that are small enough to be moved get moved onto the covered porch, covered patio or into the greenhouse. Really large containers that are too big to easily move just stay where they are.

Hope this helps,

Dawn

Ugh, I didn't see anything for this area on the news earlier. They mainly said tornado chance are in extreme south Oklahoma. Dawn, stay safe and anyone else down that way. I'll be watching for updates.

Channel 6 tonight says the main risk for Friday night is south of I-40. Up north here we are just expecting regular thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Dawn, I hate to wish it on you, but we don't need a tornado on Friday!! Graduation is that day and I have a guest coming from out of town that is attending. A tornado would make that day a little too memorable!

I say no tornadoes this week.

Amen, Kim.

I instantly lost ten years off my life a couple of weeks ago when the power went out at the exact same moment that the Tornado Warning was being broadcast over the All-Hazards radio for our county. Having the power go out right at that moment made it seem more likely we actually might be having a tornado (we didn't). As far as I know, no tornado on the ground was confirmed though there was some rotation spotted in the skies.

If it comes our way this week, we'll deal with it. Y'all certainly get more than your fair share up there in central OK and we don't get many on the ground down here. When we do, they normally are small, weak and very short-lived.

I'd like for none of us to have any severe weather this week, but it is April in Oklahoma, so you just know that someone is likely to have severe weather of some sort. April can be a scary month here in our state, and May is even worse. Let's hope it is a quiet severe weather season here this year.

Here is the latest version of the Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 Convective Outlook for Friday. Expect it to change further as it continues to update. Today's version has the Enhanced Risk area stretched out much wider than it was just yesterday.

SPC Convective Outlook Day 3

RATS! Good luck to us all!

All we have to do is watch and see where the storm chasers cluster and we'll know which areas are under the gun for tornadoes.

Here's the scary rainfall forecast. I wouldn't want to be in those areas currently forecast to get 7-12" of rain over the next 7 days. Might be time to build an ark and fill it with two plants of each kind. Often, the QPF over-promises rainall and under-delivers. Let's hope that is true this time.

7-Day QPF

Sure glad I haven't planted anything outside yet. They are saying we could see as low as 29-30 degrees Saturday night. A chance of snow Friday night. Looks like it could be wet all weekend at Leedey, If so we may try to run to the city and look at plants and also see some of the grandkids. Haven't found much in the nurseries and greenhouses around Elk City. Maybe a good time to take the day and look around. Was going to put out some of my tomato plants down there but they are saying 38 down there for a low.

Snow? Oh Jay, that is just awful, and the forecast for Leedey doesn't seem much better. It does seem like a good weekend to visit some of the grandkids and go plant shopping. Every week when the cold night or cold nights roll around, I think to myself "maybe this is the last one", and then the next week, here comes one more round of cold weather.

Tim just told me that he wouldn't want to live in the same house with me if I'd had to hold my tomato plants until now (I planted them around March 21st more or less). Hmmm. What is he trying to imply...that I would be difficult to live with? frustrated? irritable? taking it all out on him? climbing the walls (along with the plants which would be climbing the walls to stay alive). Hmmm. I guess it is a good thing for him that I was able to plant early. We've only had to cover up the plants once, which is remarkably good.

Maybe this will be the last cold front of the season. Or, maybe we'll have another one next week. April hasn't been nearly as nice as March was.

Anyone who has some suggestions of good places to look at plants and gardening supplies preferably in the Yukon and El Reno areas I would appreciate you posting it. Thanks

Jay...not sure what you are looking for, but Precure on Reno has plants. Technically that is OKC, but it is a stone's throw from Yukon and it is right off of 1-40.

Snow! That would be terrible. A friend told me yesterday that they were expecting snow here Saturday night. It's Bob wills weekend so I almost took her serious. She just said that because I had said I was trying to get the rest of my tomatoes in. It is supposed to be cold here Saturday night maybe down to 38.

Kim, Take her seriously. Have you not looked at Quitaque's forecast for Saturday night from the NWS? It shows a 50% chance of rain/snow on Saturday night (really, after 1 a.m., so early Sunday morning) with a low of 36 degrees. I'm hoping you're closer to Turkey than to Quitaque (I know you told me once, but I don't remember how close you are to either city) because at least Turkey doesn't show snow in the forecast and does show a low of 38.

Can you cover up your plants Friday afternoon and leave them covered until you get home on Sunday? Or, can your helper cover them up on Saturday?

Bob Wills is still the king!

Dawn

The NWS now has taken the words "heavy rain" out of our specific forecast and we also are not included in the Flood Watch or Flash Flood Watch areas either. We're still supposed to get good rainfall, just not in excessive amounts. We still are in the Severe Thunderstorm area for Friday and Saturday. I feel like my forecast is getting better, though I'm watching that forecast low of 43 closely. I might feel compelled to cover up plants if they drop that down to around 40.

Now the NWS has taken the words "snow showers" out of the forecast for Quitaque. The overnight low remains at 36. I hope this is good news for Kim's area.

Thank you yes I just saw this. I should have known Z wouldn't lie. Too close for comfort

Some forecasters in this area are saying from Boise City west and north could get up to 10". There are more than one saying that. They have raised our low Sat night to 29 now. If it gets that cold with a high of only 36 during the day Sat there is going to be a lot of wheat lost. With all of the warm weather most that wasn't pastured is in the boot or headed out.

Kim, That is too close. Scary close. I hope the cold and snow stay away from you.

Jay, Now, that would worry me. Ten inches? Wow. I hope it is wet snow so at least those areas benefit from the moisture. I hope for the sake of the wheat farmers that the forecast is simply wrong. It would be such a shame to lose the wheat this close to harvest. Sometimes it seems like the farmers cannot win no matter what they do. Mother Nature is such a cruel taskmaster sometimes.

Keep us posted. I'm praying the wheat crop isn't damaged or destroyed.

Dawn

Likewise, Jay.

Here is the latest version of the Convective Outlook for today. Please note that I am overjoyed because the Enhanced Risk area abandoned me and moved further north (not that I am wishing it on any of you, I'm just glad it isn't here any more):

SPC Convective Outlook Day 1, mid-day version

I like the forecasted timing of the storms as shown on the NWS Norman website. I was worried it would rain all day, but our real rain isn't due to start here until evening. Woo hoo! I don't care if we get showers or sprinkles ahead of the main event. I'm just glad the main event isn't in a hurry to get started.

They did extend the Flood Watch/Flash Flood Watch to more counties including mine, but they can't scare me. We've survived rainfall of 12+" in one day on at least two occasions, so the amount of rain expected today just doesn't cause me that much concern. I think the hardest rain is expected down here on Saturday, but we won't be here....we'll be up at Paula's, hopefully under sunshine and clear skies.

Remember all the usual flooding rules....don't drive into high water on roadways and turn around, don't drown. We can joke about that, but it is a serious subject and we need to remember it.

Come 'on Mother Nature, just give us your best shot and get it over with.

Perhaps this weekend's rain will be the last drought-busting big rain event of the spring. Or maybe not.

I just had to go across part of my normal garden area, and I was holding on so luckily I didn't fall. I put one foot in a raised bed hoping it would be dry enough to support me and my foot went down over the top of my garden shoe. It sort of scared me as I started to sink and I quickly moved my left foot to try to get my balance. That foot went down into the mud outside the bed and 4 inches up my jean leg. With the help of a shovel, I kept my balance, and pulled my foot out of my shoe. Then I reach down into the mud that had claimed my shoe and dug it out with my hand. The top of the shoe was about 3 inches underground.

Al was standing on the walkway telling me he was coming to help me, and I was yelling, "No, no, no, do not come over here." I carefully made my way back to the sidewalk and he took my shoes to the water faucet to wash the mud out of them......yes, a shoe filled with mud.

Now that you have a picture of that problem.......the forecast for our part of the State is 4-12 more inches. Where is Noah when you need him?

Oh my goodness! Carol, that's mind-boggling!

Oh Carol! Now THAT is muddy!

I am so sorry, Carol. But really glad you had a shovel. I can feel the mud oozing between my toes just thinking about it.

Eww.. skin-crawler Dunno why but that feeling always creeps me out.

Well, of course Noah already is on the ark with two animals of each kind. Have y'all made your reservations with Noah yet? I hope the ark isn't all booked up.

I hope the shoes were Crocs or something that can tolerate the mud. That sounds terrible, Carol, and brings to mind a few other Springs when your garden tried to pretend it was a swamp. I'm worried the water table underground has risen up to meet the water standing on the ground. This cannot be good. I'm glad you didn't fall in all that mud and get hurt. That's the most important thing. I think your garden is beginning to resemble quicksand and I can imagine the sucking sound of that mud trying to suck your shoes, your feet and you down into the muck and mire.

Your rainfall forecast blows my mind. I keep looking at it and trying to wish the rainfall away, but it stubbornly stays there in colors on that map that we never see down here.

Your description of your garden reminds me of, I believe 2007, when we had all the flooding and a lot of us couldn't put plants in the ground until at least June, and even then it was very wet. I think you and I tried new adventures in planting all kinds of stuff in containers that year.

Let us not even mention the year 2 0 1 5 (see how I spelled it out so it wouldn't know I was saying its name) and all the raining and flooding because April in much of the state is kinda reminding me of that year. This is crazy. When do we ever get so many wet years so close together? If this is a wet year, it will be our third wet spring here in a row, though last year's wet year died around July. Until then, though, it was pretty awful.

This does remind me of a lot of other years when you, Ilene, Dorothy and Diane/Owie Brain kept getting massive amounts of rain in eastern OK while we were floundering in dry dust here. My mind couldn't even adapt to the concept that there were places in OK that were getting 40, 50 or 60" of rain per year. I've adjusted more to the concept of wet years recently, but the amount of rain you're getting boggles my brain.

I know the rain won't miss y'all. The forecast can't be THAT wrong, so I hope and pray that you, Al and the rest of the neighborhood just do your best to stay safe, dry and warm!!!

When DH was little, he got some white "buck" shoes for Easter. Of course he was not supposed to play in them. He was not supposed to go in the swamp, either. But he wore them into the swamp and they were never seen again. Story is he could warm his own bathwater that night.

hahaha, Amy!

I actually like the feeling of squishy mud on my feet. Unfortunately so does little man.

I like it when I'm barefooted, Kim, between my toes--but NOT with shoes and socks on!!

Amy, That is too funny.

Kim, Chris was that way when he was a very small boy, but he outgrew it pretty quickly. Some boys never outgrow the mud though.

Nancy, Y'all can have the mud. I don't mind wet sand at a beach or something, but other than that....maybe I've lived here too long with the snakes, fire ants, scorpions and such. I wouldn't go barefoot ever on our property for fear something would bite or sting me. I cannot even wear sandals or open-toed or open-heeled shoes because if I do, 9 times out of 10, a scorpion or fire ants will get me on the way from the house to the car. Of course, I had to learn this the hard way, over and over again. When we're going somewhere civilized where I can wear any shoe I choose, including sandals or open toed/open heeled shoes, I leave the house wearing athletic shoes and carrying my good shoes in a bag, and change into those shoes once I'm in the car. One thing we gave up when we moved here to the Oklahoma outback was going barefoot and wearing flip-flops. It just isn't ever going to happen.

Dawn

Not me, either Dawn. Last time was in the city during a terrific big ole heavy rainstorm. . . the kids up there and grandkids and I were all out racing through the lawn in bare feet. Out here, I wouldn't dream of wearing flip flops, going barefoot. I don't go out into the lawn without shoes and socks; and during tick season (when isn't it?) most of the time with Deep Woods Off sprayed on them.

I love to go barefoot. First thing I do when I get home is kick my shoes off. I do try to avoid going barefoot in the yard. Too many camouflaged dog piles, sometimes chicken poop and spiky weeds and grass, but I have done it. I went barefoot all the time as a kid. Tip toeing across super hot cement. I never stepped an a bee like my siblings did.

The shoes were Sloggers, so no lose there. I had rain boots and Sloggers side by side and could have chosen either, but I can usually walk across my garden without a problem, so it was a bit of a surprise. We have places in our yard where you hit solid limestone at 3 1/2 feet. I have never had an occasion to dig deeply in my garden area, but my neighbor just across my garden fence says his yard doesn't hit it until 7 feet. At any rate, the soil is totally saturated and even my grassy front yard has standing water.

We had heavy rain tonight for a short time, but so far the tornado warnings have been south of us and moved to the NE before getting this far north. My weather radio has gone off at least a half dozen times because I get both Tulsa and Springfield. We had a tornado warning earlier this week and I'm hoping we don't get another.

I hope we hear from Dorothy because it looked pretty nasty on radar near her, and this one headed for George is not pretty, but it doesn't look quite as bad as it did earlier and it is still just a thunderstorm warning at this point.

Dawn, I sent you an email today.......or maybe it was a book. LOL