I think it's too early for the shovel. I would wait a few weeks and see how it goes.

Erin,

I experienced the same goofy February and March weather you did. Roses I could depend upon to come through winter in great shape were killed to the ground.

Even after my early April pruning down to live wood, some roses with green canes and white pith, after their pruning started to die back! Evidently the canes were damaged and doomed but did not show it yet at pruning time.

I advise you to wait until June 1, and if your rose shows no signs of life at all at that time, do this.

Get down on your haunches and carefully, with gloved hands, tease back the soil from around the rose's crown. Watch for white shoots....don't break them! If there are shoots don't put the soil back you just teased away, but sprinkle a couple handfuls of very loose potting soil over the crown just to cover the tops of the white shoots. You don't want to accidentally break them or expose them to sun or they will sunburn. If the bush shows new shoot growth, keep teasing away the soil further and further down the crown. If you come to the conclusion the bush is indeed dead, don't dig it up just yet!

With your garden hose nozzle set on fine force, wash away the soil from the crown, right where the bush is still in the ground. It's a little messy, sloppy work.

You may be surprised to see wee white shoots coming along that you couldn't see because of the soil. If so, replace the washed away soil with handfuls of light, fluffy potting soil to cover the shoots to their tips.

If after all this, the rose still looks dead, dig it up carefully. Place the dug up rose bush on a tarp or in a big bucket. Hose off all the soil and carefully examine the bush. You may then see signs of life you couldn't see up until now. If there are any, pot up the bush, give it some TLC, and see what happens.

David Austins vary greatly in winter hardiness. Young bushes are always more susceptible to winter kill during their first years. As they mature their winter hardiness improves.

Every winter is different. Surprisingly, there is often more winter damage over winters that are generally considered mild. There are many other variables involved other than the severity of winter.

Austin's web site lists varieties that they promote as more winter hardy. They may prove to be your best bets.

Protect suspect young roses during their first winters. Each rose has its own profile. As you learn its need, you will gain great success.

Growing roses in our climate is challenging indeed.

Moses

My dieback this year was aweful but it was because my roses broke dormancy in February only to get hit with freezing temperatures. Everything I thought was dead is coming back so wait it out.

Own root Austins are something I gave up on years ago. Few of them seem to have the gumption to recover from significant winter kill, and they aren't hardy enough to not have significant winter kill. I wouldn't give up on it yet, but don't expect a big, flourishing bush. They also usually require a spray program.

Unless you garden on sand, don't plan on doing a lot with winter protection. It doesn't work around here, and during a wet, warm winter can kill.

Austins recommendations for hardiness and disease resistance are just, well, weird. There are suspicions that they involved a dart board a few pints of Guinness.

Erin,

Winter protection makes a big difference to my roses. I have proved it to my satisfaction. However, not just any protection.

After many years of trying every possible means of winterizing roses which would without protection, either die to the ground or worse die out completely, I have come upon a simple method that works exceptionally well for me.

Around Thanksgiving I place a collar made of heavy roofing paper, 16" in diameter, and 12" high (for the average mature hybrid tea, like. Mr. Lincoln), over the bush.

The collar is filled with QUALITY mini pine bark nuggets. The nuggets are no bigger than a domino, and no smaller than a postage stamp. No other size nugget works. The big chunks allow too many large air spaces, and dessication damage of canes is the result. Too small, and moisture is trapped, and the canes will rot over winter.

Any other species of tree bark other than pine (perhaps spruce or fir bark may work, I have no experience with their use), will likely rot the canes. Hardwood mulch will rot canes. Earth mulch will rot the canes. Sand, peat moss and the like will rot the canes.

I can select and grow a myriad of roses I like with my winterization method. If I was not willing to winterize, and only grow roses that prosper here without protection, the varieties I like from which I could make my selections would be few. Winterizing is a small price for me to pay in order to grow the roses I like.