my friend just got a goodman 2-stage furnace installed. It seems to work good. I like it. Iknow they have good warranties. If you choose the goodman 2-stage make sure you get a nice thermostat which will allow the furnace to actually run in low-stage most of the time and only go to 2nd stage when very high-demand for heat. The York modulating is a very nice furnace I hear. Pricing isn't that much more. It could be worth it for that equipment. I think pricing is really high for the goodman-2 stage furnace. My friend got his installed for very cheap (and that includes having a new return vent installed). You definitely want a gas water heater over straight electric. Thats a no-brainer. You could do a fancy heatpump electric water tank. Those heatpump water tanks will pump out cold air into your room. You might want that vented if you go that route.

The furnace model number with the XR16 is an XC80. Very similar to the XV80 but communicating. Must be a mistake. TCONT803 is a fine thermostat to use with the XR16 air conditioner and furnace. Overall, I do not agree with the equipment matchups proposed with the furnaces and air conditioners. Oversized furnace on both systems, and oversized coil to achieve marginal efficiency gains on the XR16 system. I realize you may not understand all the implications of oversized equipment, but it is a big deal for comfort, efficiency and reliability. All things considered I still recommend the heat pump system. This post was edited by ryanhughes on Wed, Apr 24, 13 at 13:54

You may be misunderstanding the terminology. The term "variable speed" refers to the blower in the furnace. So, it is possible to have a single STAGE furnace, with variable speed blower. Your typical (older) furnace may have a multi-speed blower. where the installer 'selects' the required (single) speed through electrical taps. Further, in the above case, the speed of the blower is not variable (i.e., you don't have a choice of fan speed, while heating. As with any gas furnace, the fan speed must be selected, such that the air flow through the furnace will produce a temperature difference (known as temperature rise) of the return air to the outgoing air, within specified limits. What a VS blower WILL do is ramp up in speed if restrictions (clogging filter, poor duct system)prevent the selected airflow from flowing. It will (with proper thermostat) reduce airflow in cooling to increase dehumidification. A 2-stage furnace (also available with VS blower)and proper thermostatic control, provides greater comfort from having longer running cycles. NOTE: A 2-stage unit provides greater comfort, not greater efficiency. Carrier/Bryant produce a 3-stage furnace, which they refer to as 'modulating', but there are larger gaps in output between stages. A modulating furnace provides many stages of heat and utilize variable speed blowers. Again, the ultimate in comfort, but not more efficient than a single stage unit of the same AFUE. You should note that newer furnaces blow a lot more air than older units of the same size. Combine that with a VS blower, if the duct system is not sized for the airflow, the system will be noisy and efficiency may suffer. So, proper sizing and duct system analysis is essential. On a personal note, I replaced my oversized SS furnace with a Rheem Modulating unit (13 stages). Before changeout, the upstairs was always cold; the downstairs would warm, but would chill before the unit would restart. I had to use a space heater in an upstairs bedroom (computer). Now, I have relegated the heater to the basement, and frequently sit at my computer in short sleeve shirts. Insist on a manual J (heat calc) and duct analysis. V

neoheatpump - he lives in N CA in 1000 sq feet - do you really think a 2 stage furnace makes sense? OP - Your heat load is hard to determine because you may have zero insulation and a window open all the time. Probably not but impossible to say without more info. Since your heat load is hard to determine, it is hard to say if you can even have a 2 stage furnace that makes sense. I know around here, when it is 60 degrees out, I don't need heat. In most cold climates, you don't need heat at that outside temp. Solar and internal heat gains give you well over 10 degrees in an insulated, tight house. I'll guess that you have a leaky older house. Your best bang for your buck is to tighten the house. A 95% furnace is overkill for your climate and size house. I would guesstimate that for your situation, you'd probably need $200 a year in gas. A 95% furnace might save you $10 a year over a 90 and $30 over a 80. Very hard to get that to pay off when you pay $1000 extra for it (or more). If you need more gas than that for heat, then you would be better off insulating the house better. My political rant here is that CA is so stupid sometimes. You would do better for the environment by having a heat pump. It would be more efficient in every way than using NG to heat in a mild climate. But you have tiered electric rates that discourage your best option. All they have to do is relax the tier in the winter for heat pumps. Lots of places have lower electric rates for homes with heat pumps - around here we just have lower electric rates in the winter (to encourage heat pumps). Rant off - if you stay in lower electric rates, a heat pump will be cheaper to run. With the typical $.10 a kwh and $1 a therm, at mild temps a heat pump will be half the cost of NG or less. It will cost more however and may not pay off but is a better deal than a 95% furnace (compared to your most cost effective 80% or 90%). Rant back on - does CA mandate 95% furnaces? It would be far more effective to outlaw SUVs or mandate hybrids....