Hi orchiddude

We've seen a shift in temperatures here of at least 5+f in the last 15 years. With the lowest temps now reaching more like 7a than 6b. We haven't had a 6b low in six years. We were rated many years ago as 5b.

In general, globally, something like 9 of the 10 hottest years on record have been in the past 15 years. I saw a program on Discovery where they've taken ice core samples dating back thousands of years and the co2 levels are an exact match of the temperature patterns - which certainly has had peaks and valleys - but temperatures and co2 levels now show no sign of there normal dipping.

There are tons of indicators leaning toward actual climate change, and not just the normal up and down patterns of the past. Computer models, which predicted our current temps years ago, are all showing the shift. Worse yet, as polar and Greenlandic ice recedes, the problem gets worse; where the ice reflects light and heat the dark ground and sea do not.

I was skeptical of global warming in the past, but the more I watch, read and study the more I lean the other way.

I totally believe in global warming. Here in Minnesota the winters have been mild over the past several years (could be global warming, could be a spell of warm weather) It used to be that the snow fell and didn't leave for weeks or was covered again and again with new snow. Now the snow only stays days at a time. I believe temps are rising. Anyone else from the north notice this?
zone denial- like you said on the polar and greenland ice situation as more ice melts the seas rise. I thought somewhere I read that if this escalating warming continues Miami will eventually be under water from the melting icecaps

So if I am a zone 7b then I might could be really an 8a possibly or an 8b.

I have noticed in the past years, we have had NO snow at all. Ten years ago, we would get a snow at least once every winter for a day or two, not anymore. If we do, it falls and goes away. Temps still dip into the 20's but we rarely see teens or anything below. I have been saying for the last 5 winters that I thought we were having warmer winters than years before, but I could never really prove that anything was going on.

I really never believed in the global warming theory only because life as we know it must be stable and constant for life to continue.

It would be great to warm up a little so that we could grow new plants but think of the impact that it would have on the whole ecosystem.

YOU'RE RIGHT ON, ORCHIDDUDE

Just one example is polar bears, where if they can't hunt on the ice will likely go extinct in the wild.

When it comes right down to it, the benefits of warmer weather are far outweighed by the bad effects.

bigdogg30 - you got that right..

They say that Florida would be under 20 feet of water if just one of the three large ice fields were to melt, and some entire countries would basically no longer exist.

IMHO

happening? sure
as fast as everyone thinks? nope

were just in a cyclicly (sp?) warmer time.

to try and determine climate (changes) based on 10 yrs of data is a worthless endeavour

heck im rated 9a but in the last 10 years weve never dropped below 30 which would make us closer to a zone 10a...
I dont pay attention to maps, I just plant what grows

Not a question of if but why. Is it us or is it a naturally occuring shift like we've had time and time again. 35,000 years ago North America was covered in snow. The problem with dealing with vast amounts of time is two scientists with "agendas" can just choose how far back to begin their study and mold their evidence around it. I'm certianly not proud of the job humans do with the keeping the envirnment cleen but I don't believe the combustion engine itself is bringing on these changes. More carbone monoxide is released when there is a major volcanic eruption than are produced by all the cars in the world.

Hi,
My zone is officially 7a,"that's always been sort of questionable for my part of the country TN." It's been more like 7b to 8a over most of the last decade. We haven't really had a good snow in several years either.
I think that it's for real and it's going to excelerate. Look up methane hydrate on line everyone always talks about co2 but, in the grand scheme of things it's no where nearly as good of a heat retainer as methane.

I think there is a tendency to oversimplify what the effects of global warming will be on our palms and other plants. It will entail more than going from a zone 6 to a 7 or a zone 7 to an 8 etc. Reason being, that global warming is also associated with changes in precipitation patterns and plant zones are determined as much by precipitation patterns as average, annual, minimum temperature. I definitely have noticed precipitation events becoming more exaggerated. There are months of below normal precipitation and rain events become....well, more eventful. It seems that we either have severe drought conditions or monsoonlike rains. Forget about temperature for the time being, these wild swings in precipitation ARE sufficient in stressing our indigenous forests. My 'hardy' northern, tulip Magnolias died out in severe drought and heat conditions several years ago. In place of them, the southern magnolias I planted years ago have taken their place and have taken over. I am seeing more and more of them being sold and planted now. Now, I am seeing Trachycarpus palms being sold as hardy palms for the area. Am I going to complain about temps in the 70's in December, heck no! But I am worried about a recent study showing vast releases of methane from arctic ice. Methane is a super efficient greenhouse gas (much more so than carbon dioxide). (Carbon monoxide is not a primary greenhouse gas.) Once it is recognized that the climate machine has advanced to a new state, it will not be something we will be able to change. We palm lovers should be careful what we wish for!

Remember that ice is less dense than water - thats why it floats on top of lakes. So even if all of the ice floating in the ocean melted, the sea level would drop! Its the ice on land that could raise sea levels. Enough ice on land would have to melt to overcome the drop in sea level from the ice that melted in the water. To raise the sea level any appreciable distance, it would take hundreds of years and lots of heat. Even with the higher sea level, there will likely be more water vapor in the atmosphere. Higher water + higher temps in polar regions = more evaporation. That water vapor would come down as rain or snow. If antarctica and greenland lost all their icecaps, more land would be availble to soak up the rain from the melted icecaps. I think there will be slight elevations in sea levels, but not enough to be a catastrophe. Anyways, its all still way too far out there.

I think many of those who talk about global warming have ulterior motives, like they disagree with our economic system. They say our western way of life causes all this bad stuff. They would prefer socialized economics. It tugs at the heartstrings of people like us who care about the environment and gets us to listen to ideas that we might otherwise dismiss.

Take an optomistic viewpoint: Even if they are right, we will adapt just like everything else on the planet.

Well said Brian K.

brian_k you are forgetting something.. it's not just the sea level that's important. It's also the salt balance of the oceans that drives the major currents. Without those currents the climate would change drastically.

Anyway, I don't really have a fully formed opinion on global warming yet. I believe it is happening, but it's still unclear what the effects will be.

As far as people's agendas, it's definitely a fact that no matter how powerful the environmental lobby is, it's never going to have as much money as the polluters (big business)... And as long as the government is owned by special interests, it's unlikely that we will learn the truth about the situation.

I really, honestly do believe it is happening. Our winters have gotten warmer each year. The winters used to be harsh, and it used to be cold by HALLOWEEN. On Halloween now, we are usually about 85-88ish degrees. That is definitely not cold. My first Halloween, I came back in crying because I wouldn't wear a coat over my pretty white wedding gown (still in Orlando..well, Kissimmee). Last year, I wore a tank top when handing candy to the kiddies. Also, Christmases, I used to go out to get coffee in my sweats at 7am, I still do the same, except in a t-shirt and shorts! ....Another indicator is the fact that there are plenty of 10a/10b palms planted here. Take a look at some great cocos, foxtails, and royals in the area.

I saw a graph someone posted on another site, it showed the climate trends since, basically, time began. We are still recovering from the last ice age and still considered relatively cold - only to gradually get warmer.

in relation to 10a/b palms in orlando, as well as here, all im going to say is its only a matter of time!! Mother nature will take things back to the way she wants them, she always has and always will... I will always do my best to protect mine as will all of us im sure, but the facts are facts, look at 1989 thats less than 20 years ago, climate doesnt change that much in

Everyone needs to remember one thing: This may strike some as a ridiculous belief, but this entire planet is a living organism. It has been in a constant pattern of cooling and warming long before we were here, and will continue long after we're gone. The sun, not greenhouse gases, is the ultimate judge and jury deciding how warm or cool this planet will be. This is tied in with periods of glaciation. Between 1650 and 1850, there was actually another small ice age. Major rivers in Europe froze over solid (including the Thames in England), there were massive crop failures and famine. This came about because of the climate getting COOLER, not warmer. The shrieks and howls from the alarmists who spill gloom and doom if the climate warms by a degree or two are arguments that just don't wash........

That's not to say we should ignore the enviroment. With the population growing and increasing the demands put on the various resourses and ecosystems, we should do all we can, WITHIN REASON, to protect our planet. After all, this earth is the only home we have.

The point is that global warming has become a politically and enviromentally charged issue. Both sides have become adept at manipulating the data and numbers to suit their side of the argument. I don't have a solution, but I would be willing to bet a million bucks that if we could still be here 5 to 10,000 years from now, we would then be here on this board complaining about how cold it is.......

Here is a link that might be useful: global warming

John Carlisle is director of the Environmental Policy Task Force, a project of The National Center for Public Policy Research.

The National Center for Public Policy Research
501 Capitol Ct., NE
Washington, D.C. 20002

Sounds like a lobbyist group to me... I wonder who pays their bills.

Anyway, this part, at least, seems factually incorrect:

'CO2 stimulates plant growth and lessens the need for water'.. I'm pretty sure that's not true. Water and CO2 are both needed for the photosynthesis reaction, in a certain ratio. Having more of one does not mean you need less of the other.

flound,

Not only is it not true, it almost sounds contradictory.
Yes, CO2 does stimulate plant growth...anyone who has a greenhouse knows this (and even some who don't, like me), but if a plant is stimulated, i.e., begins to grow and get bigger, wouldn't it need more water?

The NCPPR is basically a conservative think-tank. They're into everything from civil rights to Medicare reform. They have been fighting against those promoting global warming since 1997.

Here is a link that might be useful: About the NCPPR

While I certainly agree that the earth adapts, changes, etc. and that the global climate has produced mini ice ages, warmer periods and colder; man has had little effect on the outcome until the dawn of the industrial age - about 100 years or so. So, to measure the effects we have made, one really needs to look at the global temps during the periods of high greenhouse gasses.

In the meantime, try to absorb solid scientific data and toss out all the extreme views. Most rational scientists(many of which thought the earth was cooling, thirty years ago. Indeed, all the other particles we belched out in the early 20th century slowed the warming process down, but as we cleaned them up in the 60's and 70's things have began to change) are now saying that we are effecting the climate and that there is no longer any question of that fact. But, I don't believe any of them can predict the exact outcome, timing, or how mother earth will react.

I think brian_k hit the nail on the head - no matter what happens, and when, we'll simply have to adapt.

I guess I don't understand this- "Remember that ice is less dense than water - thats why it floats on top of lakes. So even if all of the ice floating in the ocean melted, the sea level would drop". Isn't the ice floating on the water just water? Yes. So when the ice melts it turns to water. The ocean won't lose sea level if more water is being dumped into it. The only way it would lose sea level is if the ice was greatly submerged and took up massive amounts of volume and there was more ice then melted water. I think it should be this- When you add water to water, the water level rises.

There is another point of view that no one has mentioned.

If we look at the bible, and we read that God will come back one day, this means that he will have something to come back too. So, my thought is, if he plans on coming back some day and he plans on coming back to the earth, all this talk about the earth warming up or cooling down to the end result of termination is a bunch of folony bolony. Yes, I do believe that the earth cools and warms because it needs too. Anything living, must have processes that change over time in order for it to adapt to its changing environment. As humans we change everyday based on what happens around us, so in the big picture of things, wouldn't it be possible for the earth to be making changes according to its surroundings.

As far as those idiots on capital hill go, all they are trying to do it create a paycheck for their wifes to spend.

I don't believe that the earth will cool down or completely heat up and destroy itself, I don't think this is in the over all plan for creation. If one believes that God is coming back, he must have something to come back too.

Right...if you have ice in the ocean and it melts it will KEEP the same level of water, because the water has already displaced the volume for the ice/water.

Example: If you fill a glass up with ICE and put a big chunk of ICE on top where the ice is sticking out of the glass, then fill the glass up with water to the top of the glass, now wait and let the ICE melt...you will find that it will NOT run over the glass. This is because the water has already been displaced for the room that the ice takes up on the outside of the glass.

orchidedude, if that is the case, how come copper water pipes,if frozen, will not burst until the pipe defrosts? Doesn't water expand when it thaws? You probably do not experience frozen pipes in Alabama, but it is frequent up north.

nucci60....try it, take a cup out and pack it with ice, with ice coming out the top of the cup, fill it with water to the top of the cup, now let the ice melt, the water will not run over the cup.

You can goto this website and click on (this simulation).
Run the little program and it will show you the same thing I was talking about. We have done this in science class so many times, its old news. LOL

http://oceandrilling.coe.tamu.edu/curriculum/Sea_Level/Ice_Volume/activity.html

Climate change here in New England is a reality- springs begin about 8 days earlier- and autumn is prolonged about 10 days- these are conservative figures.

We grow here now southern magnolia- in southern NE-once semi hardy-now hardy also giant sequoia.

Winters are milder, with less snow and cold, summers hotter with more 90+ degree temps.

Well this seems like a hot topic these days.I think there is not an answer yes or no. Nobody has been around long enough to say anything for sure. By the way back in the 80s it snowed in my location 1 day and never again. It didn't last long but it was cool for the thirty seconds it lasted. Whether its true or not we will not see it in our lifetime.

zone_denial made an interesting point:

"Most rational scientists(many of which thought the earth was cooling, thirty years ago. Indeed, all the other particles we belched out in the early 20th century slowed the warming process down, but as we cleaned them up in the 60's and 70's things have began to change"

Remember the notorious 'coal fogs' of London and other cities during the Industrial Revolution? How bad the smog used to be for us in the US?...still is in many cities, but it's better than it used to be... At one time, a popular joke about at least one of the Great Lakes and the Mississippi River was that the water was "too thick to drink and too thin to plow".......

We've come a long way with pollution control and recycling. A story that was making the rounds just a few months ago was that the reason for the increase in temperatures was because we had done such a good job of cleaning up the air, that more sunlight is now reaching the planet's surface. The liberal media very quietly and quickly dropped the story. I wonder why???

Another twist: A scientist happened to notice a sharp drop in surface temps immediately following 9/11. Remember how quiet the skies were following Sept. 11th? Many commercial flights were grounded. The scientist discovered that the temp drop was due to cloud formations returning to normal for a few days......the 1000's of jet aircraft had been disrupting cloud patterns and formation. This scares me a heck a lot more than worrying about Miami getting flooded 100 years from now. This was actually a special on PBS...an episode of Nova I think.

The 'liberal' media is a mtyh..

Anyway, I saw that episode of Nova.. they were referring to 'global dimming' which is actually due to particulate matter in the air blocking sunlight. According to the program, if not for global dimming, global warming would be even worse, to the tune of 2-3 degrees hotter.

Not sure if I buy it, especially since I've seen evidence to the contrary of some of the statements made in the program, but I guess anything's possible.

Hi
here's my two cents. Like the rest of you I mostly have to believe what they tell me.Note how even with all the fancy equipment they still can't very accurately predict the weather even for a short time. The tracking of hurricanes is still a bit of Voodoo lol. You would think that since hurricanes require such specific conditions to form at all that it would be very easy to predict the path.
But they are invariably wrong. With Ernesto ,they were wrong in every possible way lol watching this for many yeara tends to make me take long term predictions with a grain of salt.lol The only thing predictable about the weather is that it will change ?? lol
have been doing some tracking of the hurricane on the planet Jupiter Since the Galileo probe allows weather reports on a regular basis. The dynamics of it are incredible. May be use ful in predicting the dynamics of similar storms on Earth since the parameters are so extreme it should give some absolutes??
To me one of the most interesting dynamics is that it's been blowing since 1610 and has probabaly not varied more that 2 percent in almost 400 years!! the size ,intensity
and other parameters are awesome.
Oh well, got two more right here on Eath to compare predictions with reality lol
gary

"The 'liberal' media is a mtyh."

Correct, not a myth.

I saw yet another indicator of what's happening on the bbc last night - a story about the permafrost in Siberia which has been frozen for 10,000 years and is now melting at an alarming rate. Buildings are having to be shorn up, sinkholes in the middle of roads, massive amounts of methane bubbling out of the thousands of lakes and released by the melting mud, former frozen dirt roads impassable.

Believe what you may, but simply watch what's happening out there...

Sound like to me mother nature is kinda pissed and she is ready for war. ROFL....I have to agree with mother nature though, the people of the earth have been kinda mean to her, don't you agree. I would be pissed toooooooo.

First it was santa claus, then the easter bunny and now global warming. Everything we believed in has proven to be just made up by people older and wiser(?) than us. How disappointing. I don't know if global warming exists, but we do have an obligation to take care of the planet, if for no other reason than the continuation of the palm species. I don't hug trees (never have) or save spotted hoot owls (though I have been to Hooters). I recycle when I can and conserve when possible and think you should too.

I think the people most to blame for this acceleration in global warming are the northerners trying to grow tropical and sub-tropical palms. All those artificial heating methods are raising temperatures worldwide. Plant your maple tree and be happy.

Just kidding guys, fire up those space heaters!

Oppalm-
Amen brother, all we have control over is ourselves. I recycle as much as I can.