Jay, Maybe they'll put your little dot up soon. I don't know why they are so slow with your area. If they don't hurry, we're going to reach 'extreme' here before you do, and considering how much rain we've had during your persistent drought years, that doesn't even make sense. Dawn

Heather, I had followed that storm on the radar for a few hours as it traveled northward from the San Angelo, TX, area up through Palo Pinto/Young County and headed towards Wichita Falls. I was relieved that areas with big wildfires were getting some rain, and kind of relieved too that it seemed the storm would miss us because I know any Tstorm this time of year often brings hail. When I got the first text from DH, I did get up and look at the radar and the storm looked far S-SW of us and I wasn't at all concerned. Within minutes, something changed. Even when the threat seemed to be for both Gainesville south of us and Ardmore north of us, I wondered how it could miss us unless it had assumed a weird doughnut shape and we were stuck in the doughnut "hole". Yet, there we were with a Special Weather Statement (I think, it was a SWS because I was half asleep!) for Cooke County, TX, and a T-Storm warning west/northwest of us. They seemed to think it would miss us, or maybe they were just ignoring us! : ) Obviously, the storm didn't miss us at all and it kind of made me giggle (in a "laughing with you, not at you" sort of way) when we received the weather statement after the storm hit. I know that there are a million variables and odd things happen, and just count last night's "sudden" storm as one of them. We all joke about the forecasters being wrong, but I think we fail to give them full credit for all the times they're right. The only time I've ever really been frustrated with a poor forecast was in the spring of...um...probably 2008. It was in late April, I believe, or early May. We had a forecast low of 50. We went down to 32 degrees and tomato plants that were 2 to 3' tall froze completely to the ground. If a forecaster had been standing beside me in the frozen garden that day, I would have wanted to kick him or her in the shins! Now, if they'd remotely hinted at the chance of a freeze or frost, I would have tried to cover up the plants with floating row covers and frost blankets, which might or might not have saved the plants. However, with an overnight low of 50, no one expects frost or freeze damage. I just chalked it up to being one of those bizarre weather oddities you cannot explain. I figured it never, ever would happen again. The very next spring, the exact same thing happened to George in Tahlequah and he lost all his tomato plants. That had to have been in mid-April because he'd sent tomato seeds to some people on the forum, and they had grown tomatoes from them and were able to give him replacement tomato plants at the Spring Fling of the exact variety he'd lost, which was a family heirloom. So, it is now a twice-in-a-lifetime weather oddity. I know the NWS normally doesn't miss a forecast low by 18 degrees, so something bizarre must have happpened on those two nights at opposite ends of the state. Still, it is those odd "misses" that people remember, and not the other 350 or 360 days of the year when the forecasters get the forecast right. I guess that's human nature. This is why weather is fascinating. Just when "they" think they have it all figured out, it 'acts out' and surprises everyone. Never, ever a dull weather moment around here. Dawn

La Nina is only one factor that contributes to the development of drought. There are many other factors. Can the end of drought be predicted? No. Not in exact terms, i.e. "your drought will end in July". However, the experts who track weather patterns will, at some point, see changes in the patterns that may presage the end of a specific drought in a specific portion of the country. The Seasonal Drought Outlook is a CPC product that predicts the likely scenario in the coming weeks. The latest version of it is linked below and I'll warn you before you look at it that it is depressing. Here is a link that might be useful: Seasonal Drought Outlook April 7, 2011

Yes, it will take quite a bit of time and multiple rainfall events for deeper soil moisture to recover. One good event will probably bring the shallow rooted stuff like grass back to life, but the trees are going to need more than that. I'm really hoping for something this weekend here in central OK. I don't even care if it comes with hail at this point, as long as it's wet. Unfortunately current guidance seems to suggest that storms might form right over us and move east, which is bad news from a rain standpoint. For storm chasing, on the other hand... ;)