Oops Jay, Do you think it's time to move yet?

What a relief to see that map!!!! -Chandra

On a related note, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is forecasting 3-4" of rain over the next five days across the central third of our state. I think most of it will fall on Monday/Tuesday. This map is time sensitive and will probably change as new upates come in, but I'll share it anyway:

Pretty colors.

Heather, The portion of the Drought Outlook for my part of southern OK has been looking increasingly good for the last 4 to 6 weeks so I'm excited to see the trend continuing and spreading to a much larger portion of Oklahoma too. Poor Jay out there in SW KS. I don't think he's had a good Drought Outlook in 3 or 4 years now.

I've been watching that rain forecast for next week all week long, trying to calculate how much more planting and mulching I can accomplish before the rain hits.

If I stay focused, I think I'll be able to get almost all the tomato plants in the ground before it rains. That will fill up all the raised beds, and some that aren't raised, and then I'll have to wait a couple of weeks for the garden to dry out before I can plant in the grade-level area at the bottom of my sloping garden. Or, if I work really hard, I could build raised beds down at that end of the garden, but I think I will run out of time before I can get that done.

I'm excited to see so much rain falling. We're above average at our house so far this year, which is a really pleasant change after last year's brutal drought. I'm not necessarily thrilled to see it raining so heavily at planting time, but we can't be picky about when our rain falls because we need every drop.

Our local met on the TV station here has been talking a great deal each day about the developing system that will bring us the rain and I get the sense he's enjoying having "good news" for us this year, after not having so much of it to share last year.

Dawn

Awesome!!!

That is great to see. But I agree, poor Jay. :(

Jo

Jay, is very quite right now. I hope he is just busy and not sick. There sure seems to be a lot of flu up here right now. My DH sat beside a man for 2 hours yesterday and at the end of the meeting the man told him he was feeling sick and had been off work several days taking care of his sons that had the flu. DH took a flu shot, but I didn't. I thought the flu season would be over, but it doesn't seem to be. Of course, a lot of people will call their illness the flu when it is nothing more than a short term virus. Once they really have the flu, they learn the difference.

My grandparents grow wheat about an hour from where Jay lives. It always seems that something is more likely to go wrong for them than having a year where things are good. When they do get rain, it seems to happen when they need it the least: right at harvest time. Then in years where they don't have a drought to stunt the wheat early on, it gets hailed out just before it's ready to cut. My family has been farming (and gardening) out there since before the dust bowl, though, so they must be doing something right!

I take most weather forecasts over 24 hours out with a grain of salt. But NOAA for sure. They are the same ones who said about this time in 010 we would have a wet summer. The long range from our local NWS service and also from an independent forecaster says they feel by the end of May/early June we will see some moderation in the drought and from mid summer on seasonal rainfall amounts. They each put out a monthly forecast towards the end of each month. I will watch to see if either changes their forecast after the release of this. The wettest year we've had in the last decade was 04 and was predicted to be a record setting drought in March by many including NOAA. So basically I'm one who doesn't get excited if they say it will be wet like they did in 010 or dry like they did in 04. I will be able to tell you on Dec 31 how wet/dry the year was. Next Tuesday and Wed are prime examples. Our chances were 40% on Wed, 20% yesterday, 40% this morning and back to 20% this afternoon. Again I will tell you come Thursday was happened. The old saying around here goes the biggest rains fall with the least chances. Jay

I would agree with that completely knowing what I know about the accuracy/reliability of the computer model guidance we use. We're pretty good with the next 24 hours at this point and okay up to about 3 days out, but when you get into 7 day forecasts and beyond we often think of it as "fantasy land" and don't put much faith in the forecast. You can see that already with how that rainfall forecast graphic has changed since I posted it, and that's a five-day forecast. We know someone's going to get a ton of rain early next week, but the exact location shifts around depending on how well the models are handling the timing of the big trough out west.

The mid-March drought outlook from last year was fairly true to what actually occurred, though, at least for most of Oklahoma/Texas.

I never actually believe rain is going to fall when I am working outside until the raindrops are hitting me on the head. I always hope the forecast is wrong when it says it is going to rain and we don't "need" the rain. I can't help it. Next week, I'd rather be out in the garden with its' still pretty wet soil than sitting inside looking out the window as the garden turns into a lake again. My garden's soil is pretty good in the upper 4 or 5 inches, but very wet beneath that.

Heather, Can you imagine what it would be like for your family if they ever had a chance to garden or farm in an area with lots of rain? Total culture shock.

Jay, What will we have to talk about if y'all ever get even "average" annual rainfall there again? At this point, I'm not betting on that occurring.

I hope the ton of rainfall next week hits SW OK and western/central OK and leaves me alone. They need it and our county doesn't. If it doesn't rain and ruin my plans, I'll have almost all my garden planted, weeded, mulched, etc. by next Wednesday. I will have everything planted except the true heat lovers like peppers, okra, southern peas, winter squash and melons. I'd plant them but the soil temps are not yet quite where they need to be for those, and I am still watching and waiting for a late cold spell. I've never had such a good and early planting year, even though I have had to work around multiple rain storms. The lovely temperatures make up for the rain. If the long-range forecast holds, we'll be quite a bit cooler here next week than we are right now.

I should add that whenever the garden is off to a good start early in the season, it almost always gets slammed by hail, sleet or snow, so I am expecting trouble but hoping it doesn't happen.

Dawn

My grandma is a Kansas transplant from New Jersey, so she knows what it *could* be like with a decent amount of rain. I'm sure adjusting to gardening (among other things) on the high plains was difficult for her at first, but she clearly got the hang of it judging from the size of her strawberry patch. All the native Kansans in my family start complaining about the humidity even just driving to Wichita, though. Moving to Iowa for college was quite a change for me. With all the corn they grow up there, the dewpoint in the height of summer can approach 80 degrees. It was brutal, but I loved the summer rains! It would have been nice to try to have a garden there, even with the shorter growing season. That's hard to do in a dorm room, though. :p

Dawn I'm not expecting the average of 16 inches. But for some reason I feel we will see more than the 5-7 inches of last year. And although most if not all predicted drought conditions last year several said we wouldn't see the extreme record setting conditions of the previous 3 years. And it was 4-6 inches worse. And the two forecasts I mentioned said we will continue in drought conditions through May into June but they feel we will see a gradual increase in moisture and a possible return to more normal rainfall by the last half of the year. Also they feel we may see another beneficial snow or rain that we never saw last year. The way I read the NOAA forecast is it will persist or intensify and although it could happen that isn't what those that actually live in this area are saying at least when their last forecasts were made. Regardless I have no control over the situation and neither do they. At the best their prediction is an educated guess. And when 2 are basically opposite at least it shows there is a chance for increased rainfall. My gut for some reason tells me we might see 12 inches this year. And after the last 4 that will be a huge improvement. Jay

Heather, I'm from SE Kansas, and have also lived in Iowa. I lived in Fort Madison, right on the Mississippi. Talk about a cold winterland.

I loved SE Kansas because it is like NE Oklahoma, SW Missouri, and NW Arkansas - rolling hills, lots of trees, rivers, etc. My sis and brother still live there in a very small town. I am a nature lover and they get a lot more "nature" than I do in urban OKC. Despite my city garden, I still butterfly, moth, and hummingbird garden. BTW, we should be seeing hummers very soon. The Monarch migration is on, too. Got to plant my annual Tropical Milkweed today (under lights).

Last year saw few butterflies in Oklahoma due to the drought here and in Texas - they either moved North of us, or stayed in Southern Texas.

Is there any way to find out the status of native plants in Texas?

Thank you so much for the drought outlook info. So glad to see the relief.

Susan

Heather, I cannot even imagine dewpoints like that. Here in our part of OK, I think I am going to die when the dewpoint makes it up to about 77.

Jay, I think it must be your state's position/location that makes your weather so hard to forecast. It seems like they "miss" on your forecast a lot more than they miss on ours.

Every year I think to myself in the spring "This is Jay's year when the weather is going to turn around" and then it doesn't. I'm starting to think you live in the desert.

Susan, We've had a huge increase in the numbers and varieties of butterflies this week. They're really out and on the move now. We have about 10 times as many moths as usual. I don't know why. Maybe the early heat is bringing them out.

Dawn

Dawn like I said I take it day at a time. We are in a cycle. I've seen them before but not this extreme. And the 2 long range sources I pay attention too that are usually the closest disagree with the NOAA forecast posted here. Only time will tell. I feel NOAA is more of a regional/national forecast that doesn't focus on smaller areas. From what I've seen and the feelings in my bones I think the last half of this year will be better. Many times when we come out of a cycle it happens slowly and I can see that happening again. I hate to put a hex on us but I really don't see it intensifying like the NOAA report suggests. For that matter I feel we will see some weakening of it but again we all have our opinions and usually those of the "old timers" around here are more accurate than that of a forecaster who has never seen Elkhart. I'm not against NOAA or any forecaster. Have after all of these years learned what is most reliable and what isn't. So again I don't worry about what I can't control. And I do think we will see the start of a turn around this year. So guess we will see who is closest to being correct when 012 is over. Jay

bumping this back up to the top for the rainfall amount prediction map