Looks like more of the same thing we've had the last 12 months, warm and dry. Much of Alpine TX is looking at 1-2 inches ppt in the last 12 months and consistently above normal temperature. Half our rain has come in the last 4 days. The next year may be dry but is unlikely to be as dry as the last year. I'd guess at least 30-50% of normal ppt rather than 10%.

Hey Mike: The forecast on the Weather Channel site was from October when it was believed that an El Nino event would occur. However, it did not. The NWS states that the ocean is in an ENSO neutral condition now which means the water temperature is neither warmer (El Nino) nor colder (La Nina) than average. One forecasting factor that I did not include in the original post is the following statement: "A significant wildcard in the upcoming winter outlook is the uncertainty associated with the phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which the majority of the current literature indicates loses predictability quite rapidly beyond a few weeks." Without getting into a technical description of the AO, if you remember several years ago when we had the freezes here, it was the AO that pulled a significant amount of cold air from Canada into the US due to a change in the location of the Jetstream. Below is a link to a good, relatively non-technical definition and discussion. The broken forecasts of several years ago had significantly understated the impact of the AO on the winter weather. At that time, the AO was "negative" (see graphic below). Anyway, the temperatures and precipitation patterns here in Tucson certainly support the revised NWS forecast. We are between 10-15 degrees above average with very, very little rain. One question to the folks here in Tucson is how much are you watering your trees now? Regards, P. Here is a link that might be useful: Arctic Oscillation

Thumbtacks... I use Weather Underground, though their new and 'improved' smartphone app is really starting to get on my nerves (lots of hang-ups, time outs and no quick reference for forecasted Lows. Weather Underground tends to be close, but there are still times when the margin of error seems a bit wide. I use it for getting a general idea and then figue in +/- 8F. Still, it only forecasts about two weeks in advance and anything beyond tomorrow is likely to change on an hourly basis. AccuWeather has a long-range forecast for checking a month ahead, but it is mostly based on averages of previous years, so not very reliable.

Dorothy, How wonderful that Glenn is so close to retirement and that y'all will be able to have the greenhouse....what fun! I bet you'll be able to grow anything you want within reason...though probably not melons or southern peas and other heat lovers. You know, if you wanted to heat it, I know Randy has mentioned before that he heats his with a wood stove. The cats are big brats. When I first start seeds, they want to lay on top of the clear dome over the freshly-seeded flats. I just squirt them in the face with water in a little spray bottle and, if that doesn't work, I add a drop or two of TKO orange oil or Realemon lemon juice because they don't like it. After they are spritzed in the face a couple of times, they mostly stay off the plant shelf and away from the plants....as long as the plants are not catnip or catmint. When I transplant catnip and catmint into the ground, I put tomato cages over them so the cats can't squash the plants flat before they have a chance to grow. Once the plants are tall enough that they are branching out, I remove the cages and the cats occasionally find the catnip or catmint and roll on them or chew on them, but they really don't hurt them too badly. I try to keep the door to the guest room closed when the plant shelf has plants on it, but sometimes other people in this family leave that door open and then I have to scold the human being who left it open and the cats who seized the opportunity to go explore the plants on the seed-starting shelf. I have one cat who likes to bite seedlings off, especially while they are quite small. So, even though it is only one cat who usually misbehaves, they all are basically banned from the guest room from Feb.-May. Heaven help us when a guest actually comes to visit during that time, because they have to be reminded (nicely, of course) to close the door to the room when they leave it. LOL The cats are not a problem during the day because they spend their days outside, but they have to be inside the house or garage at night to stay safe from predators so sometimes they get into the plant room and have a little kitty cat wild party. I used to leave them on the screened-in porch all night and they liked that, but then a racoon tore a hole in one of the screens to come inside after the cats (Tim got the raccoon before it got a cat) and that was the end of them using the screen porch as a sleeping porch. Dawn