If you want to get some ideas on why some people may support Trump, my friend from Wisconsin sent me this link about rural people in WI. There is a lot of resentment, and people like Scott Walker (and would assume Trump) resonate with them.

Politics of Resentment

tibbrix- I have been saying this exact same thing since Trump started his campaign. Have people not been listening to him? Oh wait, there is nothing to listen to because he is saying nothing. Like oaktown titled her HT thread I don't "get" Donald Trump. nor the people who admire him.

I am a bit of a political junkie and I live for our and your federal elections but I am turning off the tv. I can no longer deal with this.

What if I decide to have six kids while I work part time at Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart now has some moral obligation to pay me enough to raise my six kids?

I noticed that my married male and female coworkers and coworkers with children made more than I, a single woman, did, even when I was better educated (and it mattered in that job), was more experienced, was more productive (I also worked longer hours), and was, frankly better at my job. Not to be boastful or anything, but I was.

I have often seen reports that married men have higher salaries than single men. When DH and I got married, his salary jumped by nearly 50%.

"There's people in the U.S. who are food insecure, but there are not people in America who are STARVING to death."

Beagles, your kindness and generosity of spirit toward those who struggle and are far less fortunate than you appears to be lacking. Perhaps it is because you are so young. I don't know, but I find it terribly sad whatever the reason.

My point is being taken out of context with that quoted statement.

The sole point I was making with those comments was in response to MTN's comments and was that another four years of gridlock is not going to lead to anyone's throat being slit because the situation in America is not that dire at this point. THAT IS ALL I WAS SAYING.

I think we need to reform and fix our economy to give everyone a fair shot. Just because I don't believe in the same solutions you all believe in does not mean I'm not compassionate or that I don't care about the less fortunate. But just go ahead and continue to demonize people with different beliefs, because that's working out so well for the country.

I wish people would open their minds to believe that people can still care about others even if they disagree with you about the solutions for what to do with the problem.

The war on poverty hasn't worked in 50 years, but no one wants to consider that what we're doing isn't working. Perhaps I think it is cruel to continue failed policies that sentence large portions of the population to lives of multi-generational poverty where they subsist on government subsidies and end up with diabetes and a host of other health problems, shortened life spans, and a higher chance of being imprisoned. But I don't call people who support these programs evil and heartless.

I'm officially done with these political threads from now on. Everyone can just go ahead and agree with each other and marvel at how stupid and heartless all of your political opponents are and have no opposing viewpoints whatsoever if people can't be respectful of other people's viewpoints without impugning other people's character.

Beagles,

No, I didn't say that four years of gridlock would lead to anyone's throat being slit. My point is that even people who don't believe there's a moral obligation to help others, recognize that civilizations are less stable when people feel, as many seem to today, that things are unfair or even hopeless. It's not sustainable.

The point simply being that, whether someone is "compassionate" or not, there are learned enough to understand that you can't simply "let them eat cake".

To get back to the original question, this is telling:

And this correlates with real wage growth by education:

So our declining education and the shift in job growth and wages toward more educated workers has had a significant impact on the triumph of trump.

As automation increases there simply won't be enough jobs for all. Does this mean a human life is worth nothing and that human should starve? Or does it mean that as automation increases that we use the fruits of machine labour to benefit all humanity and not only a few? Truck drivers are a great case in point, that is a job that will completely disappear in my lifetime with self driving automobiles.

Back to the topic as to why people support Trump. I know quite a few Trump supporters. Many of them are just life long Republicans and they will support whomever the party nominates. I've been hearing versions of his rhetoric for years, and nobody prior to this was much challenging it, so not sure why the rank and file Republicans are so baffled by all this.

The really interesting parts of American politics are independents and party switchers, peeling off a cohort from the mass. That's how elections are won and lost, along with solidifying and turning out your base. So there will always be attempts to create an "other" for folks to get riled up about, that works well. Trump got out in front of that one right away. He wisely realized that illegal workers were much more of a threat to the middle class than homosexuals or competition from citizens of other races. Illegal workers and Muslims are the perfect "others" for our times, replacing communists and blacks, although those two still resonate since they have such a long and illustrious history. In the US, with our demographics, you need to resonate with voters who aren't in tune with parties and party platforms, they are free agents, so you try and resonate with their impression that you "feel their pain" even though your party and party platform has very little substance that will affect the voters one way or the other. Trump is both popular and unpopular because he just goes about working this playbook unabashedly.

The secret to Trump's popularity IMHO, that I almost never see discussed, is he is a master of modern media. He knows how to work the visual and audio soundbyte. He's very meme-worthy. He's popular with folks who watch a lot of TV and get a lot of their info from TV. Even though he is bashed on TV, the important thing is he is COVERED by the media, so the attention keeps his name in people's heads, even thought they don't know much about his reality. It is their perception of him, not the cold hard facts. Salesmanship 101. So people perceive that he is successful because he repeats it over and over again. They perceive that he will be "tough" because he sounds tough and has tough rhetoric. When the package they ordered from the infomercial arrives in the mail, they may find it looks a tad different IRL.

Annie, I found a more recent link that he has strong support among higher income and educated voters. This is from a few days ago.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

I agree, pinkmountain, with your last paragraph. That is why I scoff at the notion that he is a good businessman - he is not. But he is an excellent marketer, really talented.

Robo, You need to read the Atlantic article I linked to.... bet you would find it interesting.

Mtn, I'm sure you've seen this that he has earned nearly $2Billion in media coverage!

http://time.com/money/4260127/trump-free-media-coverage-2-billion/

Are there posts missing? beaglesdoitbetter said:

>>>>I think we need to reform and fix our economy to give everyone a fair shot. Just because I don't believe in the same solutions you all believe in does not mean I'm not compassionate or that I don't care about the less fortunate.<<<

I believe her.

Beagles gamely posts here time and time again as a minority voice, and from what I recall at least, does not use personal attacks, to her credit.

I am not convinced that even those who believe in far less government that I think is optimal are not themselves compassionate individuals.

I'm sure you are right, Mtn and Oaktown. I let my frustrations get the best of me. Deleting.

From my perspective, Beagles hasn't yet developed a self-awareness to understand how she comes across to others, especially in this one-dimensional environment of online communication. This comes with time and experience. (And even then, there's no guarantee.)

To state as she did above that everyone deserves a "fair shot" without acknowledging that not everyone is at the same starting line for that shot demonstrates a lack of understanding of the multidimensional society in which we live.

Not everyone is at the same starting line.

Gsciencechick, thanks for that link to the Milwaukee article relating to Walker and rural Wisconsin perspectives. I followed that issue when the protests were happening in Madison. I found the comments section of the article especially interesting and brought more issues to the table from people on all sides of that issue.

As automation increases there simply won't be enough jobs for all.

Actually, the opposite is true. As automation increases, the value added of each worker increases, productivity goes up and so do wages.

If a worker produces only $5 per hour worth of output, as an employer, I can only afford to pay him/her something less than that if I expect to stay in business. But if I can automate that job and increase the value of their output to $50 per hour, I can afford to pay them more and still make money.

In 1800s, 80% of workers in this country were farmers. Now with automation, only 2% of workers are. At that time, we were employing only 2 million people. Today we employ over 150 million. If we asked people in those days where all those people who were no longer farmers would be working, they'd never be able to come up with today's job mix ... the majority of positions did not even exist in their era...web masters and ultrasound technicians and risk analysts. But we have managed to employ that many people, even with the vast influx of imports. It's growth that generates jobs and productivity that generates growth. Trade and investment are keys to economic growth.

gscience...that data is surprising.

Annie,

Yes, automation is good! For the guy who makes $50 an hour in your example. But by definition automation has eliminated some of his coworkers, who then make nothing ...unless there is enough growth to employ him as well.

As automation continues to increase, there will be more wealth, but possibly fewer and fewer jobs. Hence "A World Without Work".

If you have a world without work, the spoils go only to those who have amassed capital and the means of production. We aren't there yet of course, but that is the direction.

It can be utopia or dystopia.

ETA : The other day my DH shared this anecdote with me. As recently as 1993 , the Clinton administration was trying to identify what job category would see the most growth in the future. What did they predict would be the fastest growing job? Travel agent. Oops. This does speak to the tremendous difficulty of designing effective economic policy.

gsciencechick, "they" would love to think that Trump supporters are all poor and uneducated-not the case. Most of the Trump supporters I personally know, are college-educated and financially successful.

Annie, are you saying uneducated people are "dumb"? As for the people who are uneducated, many of them have COMMON SENSE and are very hard-working. My DH works around a lot of those hard-working people with common sense. They know how to save money, have a good family with high morals. I admire them! I know I had a lot of help from my parents right out of college and was very lucky.

I live in a college town, and next door and across the street are professors-talk about no common sense! Nice, yes, but talk about weird! I'm sure they think I am weird too! I also see another one ride his bike everyday talking to himself. I know that is not the only kind of "college-educated" you are talking about, but please don't think just because people aren't college educated that they don't know what they think is good for them and their country. They live in the United States just like you, and they feel their livelihood is at stake.

MtnRdRedux, some of the "World Without Work" people are pushing the notion of Universal Basic Income.

olliesmom, I said no such thing. The data I posted suggested that it is the less educated who have suffered the most economic dislocation and who therefore are looking for someone who will change the current situation like trump as opposed to an establishment candidate like clinton or kasich. But apparently the data from gscience suggests otherwise.

Thanks Annie.

Mtnrd, World without work...uh huh...right up there with the streets overflowing with horse manure...

Gscience,

Yes, I read the $2bn figure from Nate Silver.

His piece on why Trump is excellent:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-republican-voters-decided-on-trump/

a snippet: Trump’s main differentiator was doubling down on cultural grievance: grievances against immigrants, against Muslims, against political correctness, against the media, and sometimes against black people and women.

His "first 100 days" top priorities announced; design a wall to keep Mexicans out and end Muslim immigration. Geezus.

Annie - Read the article, is has a hyperbolic title but it is thought provoking. Work as we have known it is surely on the wane.

Oaktown, Yes, I suppose it is the logical conclusion? I am not there yet, at all. It is important to make sure we create the right incentives for behavior.

Angus Deaton reported that morbidity rates are rising for adults in mid-life and the CDC just reported that suicide rates in the US are increasing. Loss of hope brings terrible things (illness, drug addiction, and suicide) whether you are a young person with no hope of a job or a middle-aged person who has lost a house after losing a job. Trump has managed to rally people who are angry at what they've lost. They may not have gone to college and taken a class in economics, but they understand a painful economic reality all too well. Unfortunately, Trump is an authoritarian deceiver and I fear these same people who put their hope in him will lose out once more. I am very sad for our country.

I work with all kinds of people, in all walks of life, and I have found that they all find work important and meaningful. The phrase, "Someone to love, something to do, something to look forward to" is said to capture the necessities of a happy life.

Mtn, thank you for the link. It's late for me, but I will read it tomorrow as I am intrigued.

Annie, automation is beginning to change the world in ways it never has done in the past. Even white collar workers are beginning to be displaced by it. For example, court reporters, who have always had a skilled, well-paid calling, are losing their jobs in droves as they are replaced by video/audio recording. Lawyers and judges don't like it, but it's happening because it's cheaper.

The folks who were put in charge of facebook's new news service have already mostly quit because it was obvious to them that they were just training the algorithms that would replace them. I think you would be surprised at how much actual reporting is already robotic. There's a robot painter whose work is totally acceptable to most people who've seen it, and even preferred to human artwork by many.

The comfortable idea that automation only threatens the less-skilled (i.e, not me and mine) is very antiquated. I don't know anyone who works in robotics who doesn't see that that there will shortly be very little work available for humans to do.

Moreover, the switch to a piecework, service type economy has already made many, many former professional career jobs into sub-minimum wage work for hire. I was recently contacted by a trade journal for which I have written several past articles. They used to pay $1000 for a feature length article. Now they pay $150. I'm constantly being contacted for writing jobs offering a penny a word to write.

I stopped reading when I came across this:

".......how to balance the beauty and wisdom of free markets and capitalism and globalization, with a desire for most of our fellow Americans to have at least a modest middle class lifestyle."

because I am completely confounded that anyone, especially you, Mtnrdredux, would think that any current or future politicians likely to be produced in the United States of America would be able to achieve this goal. As has been proven again and again, we are a nation of extremes; our future lies in a worsening divide between the haves and have nots until the second revolution. Trump plays to this perfectly because the upper class sees him as upholding the divide and the lower classes see him as the first shot in the revolution. Both views are informed by their own prejudices, fears and misery.

Trump is a cipher.....he is our Mirror of Erised.

"Trump is a cipher.....he is our Mirror of Erised."

Maybe kswl, but that's what we had the last 8 years with the administration we have now and it hasn't worked out well at all. Republicans kept warning everyone aboutObama in the White House-just going a different direction now-hopefully!

I never said that automation hasn't changed work, and I never said it was limited to blue collar positions. It does focus on those tasks that are most replicable and repetitive. It is how we keep labor employed most efficiently at the jobs most needed. (Do we really still want people paid to be key punch operators?) And let's not forget the flip side that these productivity improvements drive lower costs making products and services, formerly unavailable to many people, affordable. (How many people who could never afford a cpa use Tax Cut?)

I suspect that jobs that are focused on creativity and jobs that are focused on persuasion will not be automated any time soon if ever as human imagination is not replicable by machine, and machines will not be able to persuade or touch the human heart as another human can ... or certainly not any time soon. However, these jobs do require a greater knowledge base and more education than other jobs.

But despite automation and despite globalization and all the (imo misplaced) fears associated with that, we are now employing 3 billion people globally. That is as much as the entire global population in 1960.

Here's the result of automation and globalization on global economic growth:

The beige line above is India. I'm reminded of when DH was in India back in the 80s and talked about seeing women sitting by the side of the road and using small hammers to break rocks, and other women loading them in baskets which they'd carry on their heads up to the construction site where the road was being built. That certainly was labor intense work, employed a lot of people, but kept everyone poor as it was so low productivity...not to mention how long it took to construct the actual road.

Economic growth means we are talking about people's ability to feed and clothe their families, house them, access medical care, et al.

"but that's what we had the last 8 years with the administration we have now and it hasn't worked out well at all."

It's nothing like what we have had the last eight years. Obama has not pleased anyone---Democrats feel he hasn't done nearly enough and has become the moderate tool of the establishment and Republicans think he is a socialist devil. It's the exact opposite scenario as Trump's.

" I don't know anyone who works in robotics who doesn't see that that there will shortly be very little work available for humans to do."

Well then, these companies will be hard pressed to find anyone to buy their products and services.

I'm actually not that disgruntled with obama. Sure he's gone too moderate on some issues, but given the radicalized right* he's had to deal with, I think he's done pretty well. He walked into a total economic mess and managed to get the economy back on its feet, cut the unemployment rate in half down to 5%, the banking system is back on its feet, the housing market is recovering, deficit is about 1/3 of what it was in 2009, 20 million more people have health care coverage than did in 2009 and it's cost the government less than projected, and obl is history as is don't ask, don't tell.

Is our nation perfect? Not by far. But are we better off than we were 8 years ago? IMO, yes.

-------------------

*From 2010:

Here’s John Boehner, the likely speaker if Republicans take the House, offering his plans for Obama’s agenda: “We're going to do everything — and I mean everything we can do — to kill it, stop it, slow it down, whatever we can.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell summed up his plan to National Journal: “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

And Boehner was the one who the GOP kicked out for being too moderate.

Now, of course, you have a senate that is refusing to do their sworn duty to hold hearings for SCJ nominations...on a well qualified person the GOP said they would support! I say impeach the lot of them for dereliction of duty.

It used to be that regardless of party, reelection was not the priority...rather it was actually governing and finding compromise to address the needs of the nation. That seems a pipe dream now.

It's a wonder Obama has accomplished anything, given the opposition he's faced. And I think the very people who opposed him so much, both those in office and voters in general, are afraid to admit that he's not the bogeyman who would destroy our country they thought he would be.

Lisa, you are so right. I didn't vote for him but I remember all the fear that he was a Muslim and a Marxist and how we were doomed. I didn't buy into all that, he was just to left for my politics. I did do a painting expressing the fears though. It's funny looking at the painting now and the strong feelings people had.

That's a great painting, Justerrilyn. I saw your others over in the "talent" thread. Are you planning to do one in this Trump season? I'd love to see your interpretation of that.

That is a very good painting, JT! You could do one with Trump in the back of a black limo, giving the finger to the Muslims he's passing on the street.

:-(

Lisa & TR , no probably not as I have moved off in another direction. The above was done in 08' and I have advanced. But, you never know! I'm into illumination at the moment and Trumps hair might be good subject matter along with showing the fears many have. I"ll give it some thought.

Yeah, I dunno about all the "terrible" things Obama has done. I have an 8 year memory span, and longer. The last 8 years haven't been particularly bad, we didn't have an economic meltdown, low inflation, no wars so no US kids dying in droves. The trends that are eating away at the middle class have been going on throughout the last 25 years or more. The Bush years were far more terrible in my mind. A horrible terrorist attack followed by an endless war with no apparent positive result for the US, and then racking up a huge deficit and big economic meltdown. I felt it, lost my good full time job and have had a hard time finding and keeping one ever since, although age discrimination has played a bit of a role on that one too. My SO saw his salary get cut in half and now can't retire when he was planning on, plus lost all his health benefits. We're not enthusiastic about any of the candidates, and we don't care about guns, abortion, birth control, gays, prayer in schools, transgender bathroom politics or Muslim boogeymen. These issues don't affect us. We do see the effect that cheap illegal workers from Mexico and South America are having on SO's industry--construction. Oddly, the folks who hire all the illegal workers are all Republicans . . . We're pragmatic so don't expect our broke government to fund pie in the sky programs. I worry about drug and alcohol abuse, I have seen it tear several families close to me apart. I have several friends with cancer and other chronic health problems struggling to stay financially afloat due to the high cost of treatment and limited access to affordable health care insurance that offers good coverage, even under the AHCA, so that worries me. If either myself or SO gets seriously ill, we will be having to live with better-off friends or relatives at that point. We live in areas with aging infrastructure and have experienced two tragedies, a whole neighborhood blowing up due to aging gas lines and now the lead pipe issue, plus having to navigate an old, rickety transportation system over long work commutes. I'd say we are pretty typical Americans and I haven't heard one practical agenda from anyone running for anything lately that will make any difference to us. In fact, all this blah blah from the campaigns just irritates our already stretched nerves!

Pink, the people who hire illegals are not just Republicans. It is not something you can put on parties. Cheap people hire illegals!

"Cheap people hire illegals!"

That includes consumers. We have hired the cheapest employees these companies can find by way of the prices we support or are willing to pay, and the wages we are willing to accept for ourselves. By doing this, we outsource our own jobs to foreign workers both inside and outside the States.

Of course, prices are outrageous as they are, so it is all a lot of people can afford anyway at this point. Probably most people. Although I do think everyone, including those who have very little, wastes a lot of their money on things they don't really need. Spending on healthy food and trying to educate one's way up and out would be better choices than some of the stuff I see, for instance.

I can't imagine what the price of goods and services would be at American wages. How would the average person or below be able to afford that? It would seem to me that the middle class would shrink even more.

"That includes consumers. We have hired the cheapest employees these companies can find by way of the prices we support or are willing to pay, and the wages we are willing to accept for ourselves. By doing this, we outsource our own jobs to foreign workers both inside and outside the States."

To this point, the collective we are also complicit in all that outsourcing with every purchase from Walmart, or any of the other category killers who are able to offer those lowlowlow prices.

I recall a discussion on this forum years ago that made me smile, about where people shop. Quite a few were bemoaning the loss of all those family owned businesses....except they had to admit that of course they themselves were always Walmart shoppers because of course the prices were so much lower than what FOB could offer.

What was that cartoon phrase: we have met the enemy and he is us.

I don't shop at Walmart for many of the reasons you enumerated. I go to the store a couple of times a year at most, and have gone stretches of two years without stepping foot in a Walmart. IMO they represent all that is bad about capitalism.

I have not done a statistical survey. The people I know who hire illegal workers happen to be Republicans. I am an anecdote, not a meaningful data set. Obviously many people want to get the most "value" for their dollar, and there is a large shadow economy benefiting from workers who are outside US labor laws and tax codes. I have no idea their party or if they are "cheap" or not, but if they are doing it, I find it odd that they would support anyone who is against illegal workers from S. America and Mexico. I would think that they would be in favor of "guest worker" statuses and "paths to citizenship" and would want frugal government spending for border control. I don't really care if we clamp down on illegal workers or not, but if we do, I want to do it in the most cost-effective way possible. Seems to me that if we enforced existing labor and immigration laws and had less corruption at the border, existing policies could handle the problem. If we stopped it from being profitable, I doubt as many folks would be doing it. Any "walls" that I can think of, are just going to be big government spending projects that will line certain companies pockets so good on the folks who work for them. It all has a mighty big price tag as far as I can see, and I guess folks supporting Trump think they will benefit from the glow of his financial largess? Perhaps I am a bit skeptical of Mr. Trump because I have been to Atlantic City. Wonder how many Trump fans there?

It does focus on those tasks that are most replicable and repetitive

That is the past, an understanding of what robotics can and currently does do that is very outdated. In ten years time your doctor visit will be via Watson or something similar, for example. Will it work as well as a good, intelligent doctor? Of course not, but it will save a lot of money, and these days that seems to be the highest good, for some reason.

Most regular folks have absolutely no idea of what robotics is really doing and what goals are very much within reach. BTW, when they showed the robot painting to people along with others done by real artists, the majority of people like the robot painting at least as well as the others as long as they didn't know how it was painted.

I dislike this state of affairs, but I don't find that younger people do, for the most part. We have let the smartphone teach them that it is better to interact with machines or at least via machines and the great majority of twenty-something of my acquaintance would infinitely rather get diagnosed by an app than a real person.

Well then, these companies will be hard pressed to find anyone to buy their products and services.

Certainly, and that is why the people working in that field are pushing so hard for the idea of universal income, because our traditional economic model, the one that has been the basis for economic theory since the very beginning, is about to fracture into a million pieces.

justerilynn, I like your painting, too.

Now I'm going to say something really unpopular with almost everyone here. You do not promote the evil polices of organizations like Walmart only by shopping there. If you have any investments in the stock market at all, unless you really pick and choose, your mutual fund is enabling the hedge fund managers who put more and more pressure on companies to squeeze their employees ever harder. I realize it's a very difficult decision, given that there is hardly any other way to earn interest these days, but that doesn't alter the fact that that is what happens.

"Cheap people hire illegals!"

Snookums: "That includes consumers. We have hired the cheapest employees these companies can find by way of the prices we support or are willing to pay, and the wages we are willing to accept for ourselves. By doing this, we outsource our own jobs to foreign workers both inside and outside the States.

RIP: "To this point, the collective we are also complicit in all that outsourcing with every purchase from Walmart, or any of the other category killers who are able to offer those lowlowlow prices."

That is what I am saying: We, the consumers, are the ones "hiring" those illegals and overseas workers - outsourcing our own jobs - because, as a whole, we want (or need) the lower prices it brings to the table. And, American workers want higher wages, more benefits, etc. It all costs money. Lots of money. Domestic labor and higher wages will translate to even higher prices that no one but the wealthy will be able to afford. To think these companies would not be passing along those added expenses to consumers does not make a lot of sense.

I can't imagine how much more expensive the COL would be and I can't imagine how much 'cheaper' the quality of products that would be available at the average person's price point.

I just want to say, I really appreciate everyone's thoughtful responses, especially on the future of the economy more generally (politics aside).

I only know a few people that are Trump supporters but all of them are professionals with advanced degrees, Masters, PHD's. Also a couple of them are registered democrats.