I may have mentioned before but the ongoing demise of the newspaper industry has had a broad spectrum of adverse consequences to our society, beyond a reduction of easy access to multiple sources reporting news.

Reporters covering human interest stories of consequence, working beats about useful, unconventional or interesting happenings and the like, are greatly diminished. There was a time that such articles were to be found in each day's edition of every newspaper. Investigative reporters were given time and resources to dig deep and shine daylight on people or happenings that may have otherwise escaped notice. Those days are sadly gone and we are all intellectually poorer and less well informed because of it.

The few remaining newspapers of substance exist with traditional values, not only to advance political agendas in a limited way but more importantly to inform and entertain. Why did the Washington Post concern itself with an academic paper covering a region on the other side of the continent? Maybe because Virginia Tech was involved. Maybe because the National Academy was involved. Maybe for those reasons but also because it considers itself to be a bit of a national paper with readers from coast to coast and it still has reporters and editors paying attention to a variety of beats and it found the story to be interesting.

I subscribe to a few such national papers as my small contribution to help them stay in existence. I'm not optimistic about their future.

There was a superb (and frightening) article about this by Kathryn Schulz in The New Yorker 10 years ago: https://archive.ph/2roYZ

Thank you very much for that link. I'll look forward to reading that article. I won't ask how but will remain quite impressed by your having remembered an article from 10 years ago.

Note that the piece I linked to, and what triggered this week's Wash Po article, was a newly released paper on the subject, published 4/28/25.

Based on this chart, we are pretty much overdue for a major quake on the Cascadia fault, and I believe that it will happen in the next 30 years. I may or may not be around when it happens.

I watched a History Channel show on this fault, and it showed how sand samples on the Oregon coast were used to date when major tidal waves have occurred.

The likelihood of an event like this happening is well understood by most residents of the PNW. We experience quakes on a weekly, if not daily, basis but most are too small to make an impression. Living on an island in the middle of Puget Sound, it is common to find all public beaches posted with Tsunami Warning signs. Not that they would do much good..........

While I am fortunate to live on one of the highest points on the island (if that makes any difference), the chance of a major quake with subsidence and tsunamis does not occupy much of my life, I rank it right up there with a meteor strike or Mt Rainier erupting. If it happens, it happens and there's not a thing I can do about it.

Elmer, I don't normally remember articles from that long ago, but that one made an enormous impression on me, not least because of how well-written it was. I believe it was also discussed a bit in other news outlets at the time, so I read *about* it as well as actually reading it.

gardengal, neither the newspaper article nor the research paper said a word about having happened upon previously unknown conditions, having "discovered" anything new, or predicting the timing of a possible event. I invite you to look at it if it interests you.

The paper presents the results of a modelling project. Calculations to examine the location and extent at possibly impacted areas. It describes itself thusly:

" Here, we use earthquake rupture and deformation modeling in combination with geospatial analysis to quantify the projected expansion of coastal floodplains at 24 CSZ estuaries and surrounding communities if earthquake-driven subsidence occurs today (2023), or in 2100, when projected climate-driven RSLR will amplify flooding. We assess the impacts of expanded floodplains on land use, residents, structures, and roads, illustrating the importance of considering the compound hazards of earthquake- and climate-driven RSLR in coastal planning on the Pacific coast of the United States and other tectonically active coastlines. "

I too have spent my life in what many call Earthquake Country and your attitude is the prevailing one. Mine is the same though if I were considering living up your way, I might feel differently about Mt Ranier.

Accepting risks doesn't require denying or ignoring relevant information that can provide greater understanding.

Wow, bookwoman. I looked up the author of that piece and she won the Pulitzer Prize for it. There's an oblique mention of that at the bottom (I still haven't read it yet) but I found the info described more directly when reading her Wiki entry.

That's a big deal. Good for her! Memorable indeed.

gardengal...Im your neighbor in the Willamette Valley. (sort of). 50 miles in from the coast, smack in the middle of the Oregon wine country. My thoughts about earthquakes are like yours. It is what it is. I have the warnings on my cell phone, and TV, and I have an earthquake rider on my policy. Thats all I can do, aside from moving, and that's not going to happen. love it here. Aren't we still waiting for California to fall into the ocean?

" Aren't we still waiting for California to fall into the ocean? "

How disappointing it is to read that. I like to thank people for thoughtful comments in threads I originate. Not for yours.

Bookwoman - Thanks for posting that article. I remember when it was published and the chilling effect it had on me.

I thought of the earlier article when I read the title of the post, but I would have had to search for it. Reading that one was the first time that I really understood the Cascadian Subduction Zone and certainly moved Seattle off of my possible-places-to-live list.

Like other posters, I don't worry overmuch about a large earthquake where I live because I'm not moving and other than some basic preparedness, I don't think there's much else I can do.

I lived on the top floor of a multi-story apartment building in Burbank during the Northridge quake. I was away visiting friends further south in Orange County when it happened, so I experienced the event from a bit of a distance. I ended up couch surfing with various friends for a few months until I moved to a new job in a new city. My apartment was basically uninhabitable and I only went back to move out.

How disappointing to find a thread started by elmer in what seems to be a topic of interest only to have him resort to insulting someone completely unprovoked and over a not serious remark he took the wrong way.

I had higher hopes ... silly me.

lars, I find no humor in intentionally pejorative comments, no matter what the nature. They reflect negatively on the speaker and not on the intended targets.

Fun2BHere, I'd moved north before the Northridge quake but I was there for the fun of the San Fernando quake in 1971.

The ensuing aftershocks were a bit disconcerting to me so I hunted up a friend who was like-minded and we took a road trip to get away. We arrived at our destination and got a motel room just east of the Presidio. Where, then as now, there are a lot of motels along that stretch of Lombard Street in San Francisco. I realized as I was carrying my bag to the room that if I had been trying, it would have been hard to find a motel room closer to the actual San Andreas fault than where I wound up. We had a nice 5 days in SF all the same.

I still chuckle when I think about that.

Thanks for your insightful thoughts, annie.

That "fall into the sea" insult typically uttered by people in the two states north of mine are so old and cold that one would have thought that people who ever said that would have died long ago.

It's not comical, it conveys a dislike and a contempt. We all don't have to like choices made by others but that sentiment is impolite and decades past its Use By date.

If you've not personally been exposed to a same old, same old vacuous insult like that (with yourself on the receiving line) for year after year on end, then you don't have a basis for a view. Leave it at that.

Elmer, you have made fun of us who cache resources for just this event. You have often said we were being more or less ridiculous for taking these predictions seriously. I fully expect you to pretend you never said any such thing but you have. Those of us who live here are fully aware of the possibilities and if you have a brain here you make sure you have some resources just in case. You have often acted as if that was dumb and ignorant on our part. So now you are on board? Why?

If this event happens during this administration we are beyond screwed. We are a liberal state and this administration is stiffing the most conservative of states during serious weather events. I know that if we have a major quake even with the best will in the world it would be a good while before we could hope for any help and that informs me in my plans for a major event. People would die. Lots of people. If it is me I hope they can access my stored resources. Lucky them in that I paid no attention to Elmer.

patriciae

Huh? I'll respond and do so respectfully (as I usually do).

-There's no prediction of timing in the research summary or the article. I said so above.

-They did two calculations of flood zones. First, if it were to happen as the work was being done (which was 2023) or if it were to happen in 2100. The difference being that the result for the later year would be influenced by an expected rise in sea level for other reasons. No comment was made as to which was the more likely.

- I don't subscribe to the survivalist attitude of stocking food for Doomsday. And never will. I worry about people who do. If you want to, fine. Have you ever considered what would happen if your home were struck by a 30 foot tidal rise? Your food stash would likely be gone.

The current political scene is not Doomsday. As the saying goes, this too will pass.

I've never purchased a home anywhere in a flood zone or where there was a risk of a tidal wave incursion. Have you? If you're like me, the findings of the report don't really apply.

I don't worry about a catastrophic event (I've already lived through several and the effects were very limited in geographic coverage). If through bad timing or misfortune my time comes, it comes. If not, then I won't worry about it.

And I won't worry about you too, with or without more food than you really need to have on hand. You'll be fine, I promise.

The (brilliant AND nice) DS of close friends has been in risk management since his graduation from Stanford in the mid 1990's. Since Stanford grads never leave California <smile>, their parents have to move if they want to know their grandchildren. When our friends were concerned about living in the Bay area, their DS said devastation from an earthquake was a certainty -- and to ignore that and get on with life in a beautiful climate.

It's possible that Illinois will experience another rearrangement of geography from the New Madrid Fault before California's Big One".

" Often, Stanford grads never leave, California, "

As an alum of a rival university in another part of the state, the overrepresentation of Stanford grads in this area does tend to get up one's nose sometimes. They all have "an attitude" ;-)

I admit reluctantly it is a great school. One of the very best, in many fields.

It's true for many schools that grads who are from elsewhere get to know the area where they've spent time and decide to stay.

There is a different effect about how children can affect where parents live. The child of a good friend of mine went to school in a different state, in a somewhat rural area (but for the town where the university is located) with a lot of outdoorsy activities. My friend and his wife spent a lot of time visiting their kid at school, going to football games, etc. The kid got their bachelor's and moved back to the hometown. The parents missed visiting the area where the university is and decided to built a vacation home there. They now spend about half of the year up there. The alum and other siblings go up for vacations too.

I live on the New Madrid fault. We, too, have daily quakes but the majority are not felt. The sad fact is, a 7.5-8.0 here will be so much more destructive than one of the same magnitude on the West Coast due to the composition of our soils. Plus, many of our older cities along this very active fault are "brick cities" - with URM buildings/homes being quite common. The potential loss of life and property here would be astronomical.

I've been an avid lay researcher of quakes for about thirty years, and luckily work with structural and geotechnical engineers on a daily basis. I have access to some amazing research, and am grateful to Elmer for the link to that study.

I'm sure we will be discussing it at great length in the lunch room soon!

I remember when visiting Naples, and also Herculaneum and Pompeii, how dramatic it was that urban development in the typical Italian style (narrow streets laid out in a meandering and irregular pattern) surrounded and even encroached on the foothills of Mt Vesuvius.

It's not like looking at Mt Ranier off in the distance from Seattle. It's more like - there's the volcano, it's right there down the road.

I think the same fatalistic attitudes can apply as with earthquakes. Events are inevitable and unpredictable, and also not frequent, so get on with life.